MS Risk Blog

Gunmen Kidnap American in Central Nigeria

Gunmen in central Nigeria have kidnapped an American woman doing missionary work.

According to Kogi state police spokesman Sola Collins Adebayo, Phyllis Sortor “was whisked away at around 10:00 am (0900 GMT) Monday” by masked gunmen, with officials indicating that ransom is the suspected motive for the kidnapping. According to the police spokesman, the attack took place in the village of Emiworo, where the missionary from the Free Methodist Church ran a community organization within the premises of a school that was linked to her church. Mr Adebayo has indicated that the kidnappers were “unknown gunmen…(who) came into the school premises shooting sporadically to scare away people before taking (the hostage) away into the bush…. We are hopeful of finding her. Our suspicion is that she was picked up for ransom.” Officials have indicated that there has been no indication that Boko Haram may be linked to Monday’s kidnapping.

A statement released by the Free Methodist Church confirmed that Ms Sortor was kidnapped, with Bishop David Kendall stating “the US Embassy has been notified, and the State Department and the FBI are working with local authorities to find and rescue her,” adding “we are calling on the US church to join together in prayer for Phyllis’ safety and speedy release.”

Foreign nationals have often been kidnapped in Nigeria by local gangs who typically release hostages once a ransom payment has been made. Such kidnappings are particularly common in the southern region of the country, especially in the oil-producing Niger Delta, where expatriates working with large oil companies have been frequently targeted. A number of foreigners have also been kidnapped in the northern region of the country, however those kidnappings have been attributed to either Boko Haram or the linked Islamist group Ansaru. Such kidnappings are different to those that occur in the south as they are not necessarily motivated by a desire for ransom. In some cases, foreigners kidnapped by Islamist groups operating in northern Nigeria have been killed while in captivity.

Yemen’s Hadi emerges, resumes presidency

24 February– On Saturday, Yemeni President Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi has escaped his house arrest in Houthi controlled Sanaa and has arrived in Aden, where he retracted his resignation and announced he would resume his governmental responsibilities. He called all measures taken by the Houthis “null and illegitimate.”

Last month, Houthis attacked the presidential palace and ministerial Cabinet, forcing both the president and prime minister to resign. Houthi militants then besieged Hadi’s residence in Sanaa and put him under house arrest. The president sent an official letter withdrawing his resignation to parliament, but the group had never formally met to accept his resignation. Hours after Hadi fled Sanaa on Saturday, Houthi officials tried to force parliamentarians to meet immediately to accept his resignation, but their efforts failed. Former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, now head of the General People’s Congress party which holds a majority of seats in parliament, said it will not push for a parliament vote to accept the resignation of Hadi.

The Houthis’ takeover of Sanaa stunned governments of Western nations, which pulled out diplomatic staff this month. Since January, the Houthis have failed to form a government or reach a deal with other political factions for the formation of a presidential council. The rebels are investigating Hadi’s escape and have arrested dozens of their own security personnel who were responsible for watching him. Sources close to Hadi say that the Houthis have also arrested two people connected to the president: his media secretary, Yahya Al Arassi, and his private physician.

In the letter sent to parliament this week, President Hadi has urged lawmakers to work with him to “salvage the salvageable and to normalise the security and economic situation in all provinces”. He has called on all government ministers to come to Aden to reconvene. Prior to 1990, Aden was the capital of the formerly independent south Yemen. Hadi’s Prime Minister, Khalid Bahah, tendered his resignation at the same time as Hadi, and remains under house arrest along with other ministers and officials in Sanaa.

A day after Hadi’s emergence, hundreds of thousands of supporters filled the streets of seven Yemeni provinces. Protesters called for Hadi to stand against the Houthi coup. In Sanaa the largest demonstrations occurred as protestors urging Hadi to end militant occupation of the capital.

In Taiz, tens of thousands took to the streets to show support for the president, carrying placards which read: “Out to militant rule, return of government institutions.”

There already had been resistance to the Houthis’ attempted takeover of national government institutions from different groups in Yemen, particularly in the South, where there’s a long-running secessionist movement.

Yemen is also home to al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, which exerts influence over many rural areas across the country. AQAP is also opposed to the Houthis, and last year vowed to attack Houthi loyalists throughout the nation. The US has been conducting regular drone strikes in AQAP controlled territories, under an agreement with President Hadi. The strikes have continued during his absence but it is uncertain how the tumultuous political landscape could impact the fight against the terrorist group.

Al-Shabaab Threatens Shopping Malls in UK, US and Canada

A video, purported to be by Somalia’s al-Qaeda-linked militant group al-Shabaab, is urging Muslims to attack shopping malls in the United States, Canada, Britain as well as other Western countries. The video comes just days after the militant group carried out a major attack in central Mogadishu, which targeted ministers of the internationally-backed government.

The threat, urging attacks on Western shopping malls, came in the final minutes of a more than hour-long video in which the extremist group also warned neighbouring Kenya of more attacks, similar to the September 2013 assault that targeted the Westgate Shopping Centre in Nairobi, in which 67 people were killed. The newly released video depicted footage from major news organizations showing the assault on the mall and said that it was in reprisal for alleged abuses by Kenyan troops against Muslims in Somalia.

The masked narrator concluded the video by calling on Muslims to attack shopping malls, specifically the Mall of America in Minnesota, as well as the West Edmonton Mall in Canada and the Westfield Mall in Stratford, England. The narrator, who had his face wrapped in a black-and-white scarf and was wearing a camouflage jacket, spoke with a British accent and appeared to be of Somali origin. Speaking in the video, the man stated, “what if such an attack were to occur in the Mall of American in Minnesota? Or the West Edmonton Mall in Canada? Or in London’s Oxford Street?” He then called for Britain’s Westfield shopping centre to be targeted.

In response to the video, US Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson has urged people to remain vigilant, adding that he took the threat serious. Speaking on morning talks show in the US on Sunday, Mr Johnson called the video “the new phase” of the global terrorist threat, stating “these groups are relying more and more on independent actors to become inspired, drawn to the cause and they’ll attack on their own,” adding “I am very concerned about serious potential threats of independent actors here in the United States. We’ve seen this now in Europe, we’ve seen this in Canada.” When asked about the specific threat against the Mall of America, Mr Johnson stated, “any time a terrorist organization calls for an attack on a specific place we’ve got to take that seriously. What we’re telling the public is you’ve got to be vigilant…. There will be enhanced security there that will be apparent, but public vigilance, public awareness and public caution in situations like this is particularly important. It’s the environment we’re in.”

A statement released by the Mall of America, which is located in Bloomington, Minnesota and which is one of the nation’s largest shopping centre’s, indicated that officials are “aware of a threatening video which includes a mention and images of the mall,” adding that additional security have been put in place. On the ground sources have reported that shoppers seemed undeterred Sunday by threat.

In Kenya, the government has dismissed the new video. Interior Ministry spokesman Mwenda Njoka stated Sunday that al-Shabaab is “…using propaganda to legitimize what cannot be legitimized. When you lead a group to go and attack a shopping mall and kill innocent shoppers that cannot be legitimized, those were not soldiers…. Muslims also died in the Westgate attack. It’s in our interest to ensure Somalia is stabilized because the instability affects us. The video is cheap propaganda trying to re-write history and to get more support from those (who) support them.”

Although al-Shabaab has carried out attacks in neighbouring Kenya, Uganda and Djibouti, which all have troops that are fighting the extremist group as part of the multinational African Union (AU) force, al-Shabaab, which is affiliated with al-Qaeda, has never operated outside East Africa and the Horn of Africa. Minnesota, which is home to the largest Somali population in the United States, has been the target of terror recruiters in the past. Since 2007, more than 22 young Somali men from Minnesota have travelled to Somalia in a bid to join al-Shabaab. Authorities have reported that within the last year a handful of Minnesota residents have also travelled to Syria to fight with militant groups operating in the region. At least one Minnesotan has died while fighting for the Islamic State group.

On Thursday, a 19-year-old Minneapolis man, who was stopped at a New York City airport in November 2014 as he ant three others were allegedly attempting to travel to Syria, was indicted on charges associated with supporting the Islamic State group.

The Venezuelan Economic, Political and Social Crisis

Despite significant social advances achieved under former President Chavez’ social policies, Venezuela is suffering from profound economic, political and social polarization. The implementation of economic policies in the past decade, namely the introduction of currency exchange controls, the declining productivity and nationalization have led to a steady deterioration of the country’s economy. The accumulation of foreign debt and the reduction of Central Bank reserves have led to critical inflation hitting 64% and shortages of goods that have weakened the on-going administration of President Nicolas Maduro. This context of economic crisis is contributing to heightened political and social tensions across the country. Furthermore, those tensions have been exacerbated by ideological differences and a political stalemate within the ruling party, the United Socialist Party of Venezuela on how to tackle the economic crisis.

The Venezuelan government’s increased control over democratic institutions and its campaign against the opposition provoked a deterioration of democracy, where notably the opposition has no recourse to the institutions established by the law, developing an environment of government impunity in both the political and economic spheres. In addition to this, former President Chavez’ reorganization of the military forces has brought their heightened involvement in civil matters and favoured the militarization of the Venezuelan society.

As Venezuela marked the 1-year anniversary of the death of Hugo Chavez in March 2014, the country suffered from widespread political violence following several weeks of anti-government demonstrations, protests and retaliations injuring hundreds of people and resulted in the deaths of more than 40 civilians. The crisis engendered numerous reactions from the international community. The European Union, the United Nations, the Interamerican Human Rights Commission and the International Socialist organization condemned the violence used by police and military forces, and condemned human rights violations.

The widespread insecurity, scarcity and shortage of goods and allegations of corruption among the government and military, associated with the repression of anti-government protests and political opponents and human rights violations in 2014, have contributed to the on-going explosive climate. Although the opposition has formed a coalition, it has not been able to propose a viable political alternative. By looking at recent events, there are signs of an increased tendency of a militarized response to the unrest and to turn to violence on several sides.

President Maduro launched an economic war against the bourgeoisie by intervening in some companies and imposing a decrease in the prices of household appliances sold at retail store chains. This initiative became a law by Presidential decree, and imposed a maximum of 30% to the earnings of businesses, and developed severe fines or imprisonment to those who do not comply. The establishment of this new mechanism has made scarcity of goods a systematic pattern of the everyday life of Venezuela nationals. Recently, President Maduro also ordered the takeover of a private supermarket chain called Dia a Dia by the state food agency. Other international companies based in Venezuela could possibly be targeted in the future. Currently, Venezuelans have to queue for hours outside supermarkets, leading to growing tensions since stocks are running lower than usual. Since the beginning of 2015, the situation has deteriorated even more as President Maduro was out of the country visiting several countries such as Russia, China and Opec nations to seek fresh money to shore up the Venezuelan economy and try to convince other oil producers to curtail production.

Massive violent protests are spreading across the country once more with groups of students setting up roadblocks and burning tyres. It is likely that violent demonstrations will continue over the next weeks, as President Maduro authorized on 1 February the use of deadly force for police and military forces against protesters if they feel their lives are in danger. Civil rights groups claim that theses regulations will bring the opposite result expected and added that: “they pose a direct threat to the working class.” Other human rights organizations believe that theses regulations are unconstitutional, as the Venezuelan Constitution expressly forbids the use of firearms to control public demonstrations. As 2015 started, dozens of protesters have already been arrested.

Lastly, on a geopolitical level, the critical situation of Venezuela is affecting the political map of the whole Latin American region by impacting not only the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States and other regional mechanisms, but also the domestic politics in several countries in the region. In December, the U.S Congress cleared and sent to President Obama legislation directing him to impose sanctions against Venezuelan government officials who were involved in a crackdown on anti-government protesters a few months ago. The U.S Senate also passed a bill on 15 December and the House approved the measure by voice vote. It authorized sanctions that will freeze the assets and ban visas of individuals accused of perpetrating acts of violence or violating the human rights of those opposing the Venezuelan government of Maduro. Venezuela’s foreign relations are complicated with numerous countries

Taking into account this complex situation where many drivers are involved, it is likely that if President Maduro’s administration fails to drive adequate economic policies, increases the repression of the opposition and the social outbreak continues unabated, the country could enter into a state of higher anarchy and escalating violence. Thus, it would result in a higher threat to both Venezuela and its neighbours’ domestic security.

Qatar Recalls Ambassador to Egypt amid New Row

19 February– The Qatari government has recalled its ambassador to Egypt, following a dispute over Egyptian air strikes on Islamic State targets in Libya. Days earlier, Egyptian and Libyan fighter jets conducted two waves of attacks in Derna, Libya, hours after ISIS militants released a video showing the beheading of 21 Coptic Christian Egyptians. The attacks targeted ISIS militant camps, training sites and weapons storage facilities.

Following the attacks, Qatari foreign ministry official, Saad bin Ali al-Muhannadi expressed concern Egyptian engagement during a meeting of the Arab League, warning against “unilateral military action in another member (state) in a way that could harm innocent civilians”. Qatar’s concern notwithstanding, the Arab League issued a statement that expressed the “complete understanding” of the strikes by the Egyptian air force. Further, the League issued its support of Cairo’s call for the UN to lift an arms embargo that is in place against the Libyan Army.

Here again, Qatar took an opposing view; Al-Muhannadi expressed concerns that arming the Libyan army could give leverage to one party before peace talks were concluded and a coalition government was formed.

The Qatari opinions angered the Egyptian envoy. Tareq Adel blasted the moves, saying it shows Qatar “supports terrorism.” The rift reignited a months-long row. Ties between Egypt and Qatar deteriorated when then-army chief Abdel Fattah al-Sisi toppled Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi. Morsi’s political organisation, the Muslim Brotherhood, is backed by Qatar. The Muslim Brotherhood became a designated terrorist organisation in Egypt in 2013, and later in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Last year, all nations withdrew their ambassadors over Qatar’s support for the Brotherhood.

While the other nations returned their envoys to Qatar in November, the tenuous diplomatic thaw between Egypt and Qatar emerged only two months ago, during a reconciliation meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. In December, the Qatari-owned Al-Jazeera news network shut down its Egypt channel, quieting a major source of tension. Egypt has accused Al-Jazeera in general — and its Egypt affiliate, Al-Jazeera Mubasher Misr, in particular — of doing Doha’s bidding by serving as Islamists’ mouthpiece at a time of a ferocious crackdown on their ranks. The station denies any bias, saying it is simply covering Islamist protests. Tensions between the two nations increased over the arrest, trial and prison sentences for three journalists from Al-Jazeera’s English channel on terrorism-related charges for allegedly helping the Brotherhood. However in light of the diplomatic thaw, the cases have been re-examined and at least one of the journalists, Peter Greste, has been allowed to return to his native Australia.

During the Arab League meeting, the Gulf Cooperation Council sided with Qatar. In a statement issued by GCC head Abdullatif Al-Zayani, he states, that the Egyptian accusations against Qatar are baseless, distort the truth and ignore the sincere efforts Qatar has exerted with its GCC neighbours to combat terrorism and extremism on all its levels.” The GCC also expressed concerns that it did not want another internal rift that could impact diplomatic relations once more.

Sisi is eager to work with Qatar’s wealthy Gulf neighbours, who have provided financial and political backing. It is likely that Egypt will work quickly to diffuse tensions as the GCC has expressed its support of Qatar. Qatari Foreign Minister Khaled al-Attiya, said in an interview that Doha did not support the Muslim Brotherhood, adding that the rift that had divided Gulf Arab nations was history. He added there were “differences of opinion, which is healthy, and not disputes” between Gulf Arab countries.