MS Risk Blog

The Venezuelan Economic, Political and Social Crisis

Despite significant social advances achieved under former President Chavez’ social policies, Venezuela is suffering from profound economic, political and social polarization. The implementation of economic policies in the past decade, namely the introduction of currency exchange controls, the declining productivity and nationalization have led to a steady deterioration of the country’s economy. The accumulation of foreign debt and the reduction of Central Bank reserves have led to critical inflation hitting 64% and shortages of goods that have weakened the on-going administration of President Nicolas Maduro. This context of economic crisis is contributing to heightened political and social tensions across the country. Furthermore, those tensions have been exacerbated by ideological differences and a political stalemate within the ruling party, the United Socialist Party of Venezuela on how to tackle the economic crisis.

The Venezuelan government’s increased control over democratic institutions and its campaign against the opposition provoked a deterioration of democracy, where notably the opposition has no recourse to the institutions established by the law, developing an environment of government impunity in both the political and economic spheres. In addition to this, former President Chavez’ reorganization of the military forces has brought their heightened involvement in civil matters and favoured the militarization of the Venezuelan society.

As Venezuela marked the 1-year anniversary of the death of Hugo Chavez in March 2014, the country suffered from widespread political violence following several weeks of anti-government demonstrations, protests and retaliations injuring hundreds of people and resulted in the deaths of more than 40 civilians. The crisis engendered numerous reactions from the international community. The European Union, the United Nations, the Interamerican Human Rights Commission and the International Socialist organization condemned the violence used by police and military forces, and condemned human rights violations.

The widespread insecurity, scarcity and shortage of goods and allegations of corruption among the government and military, associated with the repression of anti-government protests and political opponents and human rights violations in 2014, have contributed to the on-going explosive climate. Although the opposition has formed a coalition, it has not been able to propose a viable political alternative. By looking at recent events, there are signs of an increased tendency of a militarized response to the unrest and to turn to violence on several sides.

President Maduro launched an economic war against the bourgeoisie by intervening in some companies and imposing a decrease in the prices of household appliances sold at retail store chains. This initiative became a law by Presidential decree, and imposed a maximum of 30% to the earnings of businesses, and developed severe fines or imprisonment to those who do not comply. The establishment of this new mechanism has made scarcity of goods a systematic pattern of the everyday life of Venezuela nationals. Recently, President Maduro also ordered the takeover of a private supermarket chain called Dia a Dia by the state food agency. Other international companies based in Venezuela could possibly be targeted in the future. Currently, Venezuelans have to queue for hours outside supermarkets, leading to growing tensions since stocks are running lower than usual. Since the beginning of 2015, the situation has deteriorated even more as President Maduro was out of the country visiting several countries such as Russia, China and Opec nations to seek fresh money to shore up the Venezuelan economy and try to convince other oil producers to curtail production.

Massive violent protests are spreading across the country once more with groups of students setting up roadblocks and burning tyres. It is likely that violent demonstrations will continue over the next weeks, as President Maduro authorized on 1 February the use of deadly force for police and military forces against protesters if they feel their lives are in danger. Civil rights groups claim that theses regulations will bring the opposite result expected and added that: “they pose a direct threat to the working class.” Other human rights organizations believe that theses regulations are unconstitutional, as the Venezuelan Constitution expressly forbids the use of firearms to control public demonstrations. As 2015 started, dozens of protesters have already been arrested.

Lastly, on a geopolitical level, the critical situation of Venezuela is affecting the political map of the whole Latin American region by impacting not only the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States and other regional mechanisms, but also the domestic politics in several countries in the region. In December, the U.S Congress cleared and sent to President Obama legislation directing him to impose sanctions against Venezuelan government officials who were involved in a crackdown on anti-government protesters a few months ago. The U.S Senate also passed a bill on 15 December and the House approved the measure by voice vote. It authorized sanctions that will freeze the assets and ban visas of individuals accused of perpetrating acts of violence or violating the human rights of those opposing the Venezuelan government of Maduro. Venezuela’s foreign relations are complicated with numerous countries

Taking into account this complex situation where many drivers are involved, it is likely that if President Maduro’s administration fails to drive adequate economic policies, increases the repression of the opposition and the social outbreak continues unabated, the country could enter into a state of higher anarchy and escalating violence. Thus, it would result in a higher threat to both Venezuela and its neighbours’ domestic security.

Qatar Recalls Ambassador to Egypt amid New Row

19 February– The Qatari government has recalled its ambassador to Egypt, following a dispute over Egyptian air strikes on Islamic State targets in Libya. Days earlier, Egyptian and Libyan fighter jets conducted two waves of attacks in Derna, Libya, hours after ISIS militants released a video showing the beheading of 21 Coptic Christian Egyptians. The attacks targeted ISIS militant camps, training sites and weapons storage facilities.

Following the attacks, Qatari foreign ministry official, Saad bin Ali al-Muhannadi expressed concern Egyptian engagement during a meeting of the Arab League, warning against “unilateral military action in another member (state) in a way that could harm innocent civilians”. Qatar’s concern notwithstanding, the Arab League issued a statement that expressed the “complete understanding” of the strikes by the Egyptian air force. Further, the League issued its support of Cairo’s call for the UN to lift an arms embargo that is in place against the Libyan Army.

Here again, Qatar took an opposing view; Al-Muhannadi expressed concerns that arming the Libyan army could give leverage to one party before peace talks were concluded and a coalition government was formed.

The Qatari opinions angered the Egyptian envoy. Tareq Adel blasted the moves, saying it shows Qatar “supports terrorism.” The rift reignited a months-long row. Ties between Egypt and Qatar deteriorated when then-army chief Abdel Fattah al-Sisi toppled Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi. Morsi’s political organisation, the Muslim Brotherhood, is backed by Qatar. The Muslim Brotherhood became a designated terrorist organisation in Egypt in 2013, and later in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Last year, all nations withdrew their ambassadors over Qatar’s support for the Brotherhood.

While the other nations returned their envoys to Qatar in November, the tenuous diplomatic thaw between Egypt and Qatar emerged only two months ago, during a reconciliation meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. In December, the Qatari-owned Al-Jazeera news network shut down its Egypt channel, quieting a major source of tension. Egypt has accused Al-Jazeera in general — and its Egypt affiliate, Al-Jazeera Mubasher Misr, in particular — of doing Doha’s bidding by serving as Islamists’ mouthpiece at a time of a ferocious crackdown on their ranks. The station denies any bias, saying it is simply covering Islamist protests. Tensions between the two nations increased over the arrest, trial and prison sentences for three journalists from Al-Jazeera’s English channel on terrorism-related charges for allegedly helping the Brotherhood. However in light of the diplomatic thaw, the cases have been re-examined and at least one of the journalists, Peter Greste, has been allowed to return to his native Australia.

During the Arab League meeting, the Gulf Cooperation Council sided with Qatar. In a statement issued by GCC head Abdullatif Al-Zayani, he states, that the Egyptian accusations against Qatar are baseless, distort the truth and ignore the sincere efforts Qatar has exerted with its GCC neighbours to combat terrorism and extremism on all its levels.” The GCC also expressed concerns that it did not want another internal rift that could impact diplomatic relations once more.

Sisi is eager to work with Qatar’s wealthy Gulf neighbours, who have provided financial and political backing. It is likely that Egypt will work quickly to diffuse tensions as the GCC has expressed its support of Qatar. Qatari Foreign Minister Khaled al-Attiya, said in an interview that Doha did not support the Muslim Brotherhood, adding that the rift that had divided Gulf Arab nations was history. He added there were “differences of opinion, which is healthy, and not disputes” between Gulf Arab countries.

Egypt targets ISIS in Libya; ISIS claims capture of new territory

18 February– Egyptian and Libyan fighter jets conducted two waves of attacks in Derna, Libya, hours after ISIS militants released a video showing the beheading of 21 Coptic Christian Egyptians. The attacks targeted ISIS militant camps, training sites and weapons storage facilities.

The Coptic Christians, who were seeking work in Libya, were abducted in two separate incidents in the coastal town of Sirte. The first kidnapping occurred in late December, when the group was abducted at a fake checkpoint while attempting to leave the city. Days later in early January, ISIS militants raided a residential compound in Sirte. They separated Christians from Muslims before handcuffing their captives and taking them away. The hostages were featured in the latest edition of Dabiq, the English-language propaganda magazine created by ISIS. In the issue released last week, photos show the male hostages being marched along the coastline as their captors brandish knives.

Thirteen of the victims were from the same Egyptian village, al-Our, in the largely Coptic governorate of Minya. The Egyptian government has declared seven days of national mourning. In a televised address, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi described ISIS as “inhuman criminal killers”, adding, “Egypt and the whole world are in a fierce battle with extremist groups carrying extremist ideology and sharing the same goals.” Later in the day, Sisi visited St Mark’s Cathedral in Cairo to offer his condolences to Coptic Pope Tawadros II.

A statement released by the Egyptian military says, “And let those near and far know that the Egyptians have a shield that protects and preserves the security of the country, and a sword that eradicates terrorism.”

Mohamed Azazza, spokesman for Prime Minister Abdullah al-Thinni said that eight airstrikes had been conducted in Derna. He added, “The plan is to target all IS locations in the country wherever they are.” Libyan air force commander Saqer al-Joroushi said the Egyptian strikes had been co-ordinated with Mr Thinni’s government, and that Libyan planes had also carried out strikes. He reported that between 40 and 50 people had been killed in the first wave of strikes.

The murder of the Egyptian Copts signals that ISIS has intentions to strengthen their impact in Libya. ISIS has thrived in under-governed regions, such Syria, which is engaged in a protracted civil war, and Iraq, which under former Prime Minister Nouri al-Malaki was divided politically along sectarian lines. The group’s modus operandi has thus far been to establish bases in regions where the sense of nationalism and political power is fractured. The same is true of Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, where long ignored grievances led to the most violent aftermath of the Egyptian revolution in 2011. ISIS supporters declared a branch in Egypt in November.

Underlining this strategy, ISIS fighters have sought greater ground in Libya, which has been wracked with strife since their 2011 uprising, which saw the death of Dictator Moammar Gadhafi. Libya is now in the midst of a civil war creating a vacuum in which ISIS has been able to gain foothold. ISIS has a strong presence in Derna, and earlier this month they claimed to have captured the Libyan town of Nawfaliyah. Photos have emerged of a military-style parade in the town’s streets. In Sirte, ISIS fighters also claimed to have seized several key buildings, including radio and television stations and a passport office. Independent reports confirm that the group has been operating in and around Sirte.

In this light, it is likely that Egypt’s rapid military action is in part designed to strengthen the core of Egyptian nationalism and to send a message to the extremist group that they will not be tolerated by a united society in Egypt. Sisi may even adapt pages from Nasser’s playbook and encourage a call Pan-Arabic or Pan-Islamic unity. In doing so, he may simultaneously be encouraging nationalism in the long neglected Sinai Peninsula.

Sisi has also called for a UN resolution which would allow international forces to intervene in Libya. On French radio station Europe1, he said, “We abandoned the Libyan people as prisoners to extremist militias,” and called for weapons to be made available to Libya’s internationally recognised government, which fled to Tobruk after rival militias seized power in the capital.

Asked if he would order Egypt’s air force to strike again, he said: “We need to do it again, all of us together.” On Monday, Egypt signed a £3.8 billion defence deal with France, which includes the purchase of 24 advanced fighter jets. In addition to escalating the anti-terrorism fight in Sinai, it is likely that Egypt and Libya will continue to conduct joint strategic airstrikes in ISIS held territories in Libya. Very early and unconfirmed reports suggest that Italy may also consider mobilising troops against ISIS. Italy’s Interior Minister Angelino Alfano expressed the growing alarm and urged NATO to intervene. “ISIS is at the door,” he said. “There is no time to waste.”

Explosions Target APC Rally in Southern Nigeria

On Tuesday, five explosions followed by a burst of gunfire targeted an opposition rally in the town of Okrika, which is located in the southern oil producing Rivers state. The town is home to Patience Jonathan, the wife of President Goodluck Jonathan.

According to eyewitnesses and local officials, Tuesday’s attack targeted the rally of main opposition party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), governorship aspirant Dakuku Peterside, which was held at a school in Okrika, a small port town located south of Port Harcourt. The incident occurred as members of the APC were reportedly waiting for their leaders to arrive at the venue. Several people were wounded in the attack, which forced people to flee the rally amidst fears that further explosions would occur. According to officials, APC party Governor Rotimi Amaechi was not present at the rally.

While it was not immediately clear who was responsible for the incident, Governor Amaechi has blamed the attack on the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP), stating, “it is intimidation. They don’t want people to come out and vote because they’ll know they’ll lose.” The PDP spokesman for Rivers state, Emmanuel Okah, has stated that the incident was a clash between rival “cultists” – Nigerian university gangs that combine occult rituals with criminal activities.

In the lead up to the presidential elections, which are now set to take place on 28 March, Rivers state has been targeted by several bomb blasts. However none of them have been fatal. On Monday, the Nigerian Human Rights Commission disclosed that at least 58 people have been killed in pre-election violence across Nigeria.

The elections have been postponed from 14 February to 28 March over security concerns in the northeastern region of the country, where Nigerian troops, along with regional forces, are battling Boko Haram militants.

Ebola Situation Update: 16 February 2015

Total weekly case incidence has increased for the second consecutive week, with 144 new confirmed cases reported during the week leading up to 8 February. Guinea reported a sharp increase in cases, with 65 new confirmed cases during this reporting period, compared with 39 the week before. Transmission in Sierra Leone remains widespread, with 76 new confirmed cases during the reporting period. The resurgence of cases in the western district of Port Loko continued for a second week. Liberia continues to report a low number of new confirmed cases.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO) “despite improvements in case finding and management, burial practices and community engagement, the decline in case incidence has stalled,” adding that “the spike in cases in Guinea and continued widespread transmission in Sierra Leone underline the considerable challenges that must still be overcome to get to zero cases.”

WHO officials have disclosed that follow-up preparedness missions are planned for Mali and Senegal and will take place later this month. The missions will culminate in a meeting between Guinea, Mali and Senegal, which will focus on strengthening cross-border surveillance.

On 15 February, the leaders of the three worst affected West African countries vowed to eradicate Ebola by mid-April. At a summit in the Guinean capital, Conakry, the country’s president Alpha Conde, along with his Liberian and Sierra Leonean counterparts Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and Ernest Bai Koroma, made the pledge. Hadja Saran Daraba Kaba, the secretary-general of the Mano River Union bloc, which groups the countries, confirmed that the presidents of the three states “commit to achieving zero Ebola infections within 60 days effective today.” Reading a joint declaration from the three leaders, Mr Kaba stated that they “recognized the efforts that have been made by the member states and the international community, which have resulted in the decline of Ebola infections and death rates.” The West African leaders agreed to formulate a joint economic recovery, which will be presented at a conference on Ebola, to be held by the European Union in Brussels on 3 March. According to a statement released by the Guinean presidency, “this comprehensive plan covers topics that affect virtually all key areas of development: education, agriculture, industry, trade, health and social action that will focus on the issue of the management of Ebola orphans and impoverished families.” In January, the World Bank disclosed that the economic damage of the Ebola outbreak could run to US $6.2 billion, adding that the epidemic “will continue to cripple the economies of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone even as transmission rates in the three countries show significant signs of slowing.” Earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced US $100 million in debt relief for the three affected countries, with officials stating that they are preparing another US $160 million in concessional loans.

Guinea

For a third week in a row, Guinea has reported an increase in case incidence. A total of eight prefectures reported a confirmed or probable case of Ebola during this reporting period.

The rise in new confirmed cases reported in Guinea was driven primarily by continued transmission in the capital city, Conakry, which reported 21 new confirmed cases during this reporting period; and the western prefecture of Forecariah, which reported 26 new confirmed cases. The east-Guinean prefecture of Lola reported seven new confirmed cases during this reporting period. The district of Kambia reported 11 confirmed cases. The north Guinean prefecture of Mali, which borders Senegal, reported its second confirmed case.

Officials have disclosed that a field team has been deployed to neighbouring Ivory Coast in order to assess the state of preparedness in the western region of the country, which borders Lola. According to the WHO, almost one-third of Guinea’s Ebola-affected prefectures reported at least one security incident in the week running up to 8 February.

Liberia

Liberia reported a total of 3 confirmed cases during this reporting period. All of the cases originated in Montserrado county, which includes the capital Monrovia, and have been linked to a single chain of transmission.  Eleven districts in Liberia have not reported a confirmed case of Ebola in over 42 days.

On Monday, schools in Liberia reopened after being delayed for months by the Ebola outbreak. A UNICEF spokeswoman disclosed Monday “here in Monrovia, children were coming back to school today. We went to one school this morning and saw how the school has implemented the protocols… The youth were washing their hands before entering the school premises and their temperature was checked. The teachers were also talking to the students about how to stay safe, and Ebola preventative measures.” UNICEF has been at the forefront of introducing safety measures aimed at combatting the spread of the deadly disease. Teachers have been trained to implement and monitor the safety measures, while soap and other hygiene materials have been distributed and mass mobilisation campaigns on Ebola prevention have been conducted nationwide.

Sierra Leone

Following a steep decline in case incidence from December until the end of January, transmission in Sierra Leone remains widespread. During the week leading up to 8 February, Sierra Leone reported a total of 76 cases, a decrease from the 80 cases that were confirmed in the week before however higher than the 65 confirmed cases that were reported in the week leading up to 25 January. A total of seven districts have reported new confirmed cases. The districts of Bo, Bonthe, Kailahun and Pujehun have all reported no cases for more than 21 days.

Transmission remains the most intense in the western region of the country. The capital city, Freetown, reported 19 new confirmed cases during this reporting period, compared with 22 the previous week. The neighbouring district of Port Loko saw a continuation of its recent resurgence of cases, with 28 new confirmed cases, compared with 36 cases that were reported during the previous week. The district of Kambia, which borders the Guinean prefecture of Forecariah, reported 11 new confirmed cases.

On 13 February, Sierra Leonean officials have placed hundreds of homes in the capital city under quarantine, in what is likely to be a huge blow to the country’s recover from the Ebola outbreak less than a month after the president lifted all travel restrictions. Obi Sesay, of the government’s National Ebola Response Centre, announced Friday “some 700 homes have been quarantined for 21 days in the tourism and fishing community of Aberdeen in the west of the capital Freetown, after the death of a fisherman who was later diagnosed Ebola positive.” Speaking to reporters, Sesay stated “twenty or more confirmed cases have been discovered in the last few days and we have opened a control center to deal with the crisis,” adding that officials “…are on top of the situation and people should not panic.” The Aberdeen area, which includes the popular Lumley Beach tourist resort, has been “flooded” with surveillance officers and contact tracers in a bid to ensure that the death does not turn into a serious outbreak. This new quarantine comes less than a month after President Ernest Bai Koroma revealed a “steady downward trend” in new Ebola cases, which resulted in him lifting country-wide quarantines and travel bans. When ending the measures on 23 January, which impacted half the country’s population, the president stated, “victory is in sight.” However officials on Wednesday reported that Sierra Leone has experienced a rise in new Ebola cases for the second week running. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), transmission remains “widespread” in Sierra Leone, which reported 76 new confirmed cases in the week leading up to 8 February.