MS Risk Blog

Emerging groups threaten Egypt’s security

On 26 February, a wave of explosions throughout Giza was claimed by a lesser-known group called the Popular Resistance Movement (PRM). PRM does not appear to have links to extremist groups operating in North Sinai, nor do they appear to have any association with Cairo-based group Ajnad Misr. The group claims to have cells in Minya and elsewhere, but it is most active in Giza.

In an online statement, PRM signaled that the Thursday bombings were intended to sabotage a government-sponsored investment conference scheduled for mid-March. President Sisi is planning to use the conference to boost faltering economy.

The bombs targeted two telephone companies: Vodafone Egypt, a 45-percent Egyptian-owned subsidiary of the British telecommunications giant and Etisalat, which is based in the United Arab Emirates. PRM said they chose their targets “in response to Vodafone International’s announcement that it will participate in the conference to sell Egypt,” and “in response to the United Arab Emirates contribution to supporting the coup.”

Their statement continues: “The Popular Resistance warns that it has resumed its activities against the criminal forces, the killers of the honorable, the violators of sanctities, and the torturers of children.” The group has warned citizens to “avoid being present near police stations, in order to allow our heroes to deal with them.”

PRM claims to include a wide spectrum of Egyptians, including Islamists and liberals. Their first public communique was released on 14 August 2014, the anniversary of the Rabaa massacre. Excerpts of the statement, read by an anonymous young male, read as follows:

“It may raise eyebrows that our first communique is released on the first anniversary of the storming of the Rabaa and Al-Nahda sit-ins. To prevent our lousy media from jumping to all sorts of conclusions, we would like to say the following: this entity which we are launching today officially under the name of The Popular Resistance Movement – Egypt, is the fruit of several months of effort, prior to any anniversary that saw the start of our resistance against the despotic military rule in Egypt.”

“We shall not remain silent regarding the murder weapons they use to slit the throats of our people nor shall we remain indifferent regarding the hunger they have imposed on all of us while the murderers lavish in their palaces and castles hiding from us behind their guards.”

“Whoever from among the thugs stays inside his home, he is safe; whoever from among the military dogs stays in his palace, he is safe; and whoever attacks, let him then blame none but himself.”

“We shall seek to do the impossible until the demands of this generation are met. We shall pay willingly with our blood until we crush the lackeys of Israel. Retribution for the martyrs is our right, and we shall eventually attain it. So long as people seek their rights, their rights will not be lost.”

On 28 January 2015, days after the anniversary of the Egyptian uprising, the group announced that its members, “engaged the black-hearted killers in their dens of shame known as police stations where they take part in all known crimes against humanity,” read a statement from the group. That same day, a bomb detonated near a checkpoint in Qaliubeya, Greater Cairo, injuring seven security personnel. Bomb experts that day also dismantled an explosive device at a bus stop in Abdel Moneim Riyadh Square in Downtown Cairo. Outside of the capital, a bomb went off in Fayoum close to a police station and a hospital, causing one minor injury, and in Alexandria, a bomb detonated as militants were going to plant it.

In the January missive, Popular Resistance Movement promised more actions in the coming “revolutionary nights and days” until the overthrow of Abel Fattah al-Sisi.

Revolutionary Punishment

Chatter has emerged regarding another group calling themselves “Revolutionary Punishment.” Very little is known about the organization or its affiliations. On 31 January, the group reportedly declared the formation of an armed militia with 1,000 members throughout Egypt. This number has not been confirmed; however it is believed that the group does have some members across the nation.

Revolutionary Punishment has reportedly called for a new strategy of armed resistance against security forces. The group has allegedly said that peaceful protests are no longer effective against the regime, and called on supporters to combine armed operations with constant protests in order to achieve their target.

Egyptian state-owned newspapers report that ‘Revolutionary Punishment’ is believed to be affiliated with the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood. One report suggests that the group “had gathered all the information required to assassinate a number of police officers in Qena, Ismailia and other provinces.” This could not be verified.

The group reportedly claimed responsibility for an attack on a police patrol in Beni Suef on 25 January, wounding several officers. Reports also claim that the group clashed with police at a village ring road, killing two members of the Egyptian Special Forces.

Deterrence

Only one report has emerged from Egyptian state media of an Alexandria-based group called “Deterrence.” The report claims that 29 people were arrested on 9 February for creating an alleged terrorist cell affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood. Prosecution has accused the group of carrying out 43 acts of sabotage and arson in Alexandria. The defendants range in age between 14 and 40; the majority are in their twenties.

While there is sufficient evidence to support the existence of PRM, the other two groups remain amorphous. It is known, however, is that bombings have increasingly targeted businesses and transportation systems since December. Attacks have targeted a bank branch and gas station linked to the Emirates, several Kentucky Fried Chicken franchises, and other locales. The incident so far has been similar, using homemade incendiary explosive devices or Molotov cocktails. Most have involved only small numbers of casualties, however it is unknown whether that is by design. Analysts are concerned that this shift represents a growing trend toward targeting civilian populations, something that well known terrorist organisations Ansar Beit al Maqdis and Ajnad Misr have thus far claimed to avoid.

Ukrainian Ceasefire Agreement

The leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany met in Minsk, Belarus on February 11 to negotiate a plan that could guarantee a lasting peace in eastern Ukraine. The new round of peace talks were viewed with much scepticism due to similar unsuccessful efforts in the past. The arrival of 2015 brought the collapse of the tenuous ceasefire that took hold in Ukraine on September 5, 2014, which had brought a lull to fighting that had raged for nearly five months and which killed over 2,500 people. Despite the fact that an official ceasefire was in place the violations started within days of signing after multiple reports that claimed that near the big coastal city of Mariupol and Donetsk airport intense fights took place between the Ukrainian forces and the pro-Russian militants. Officially, the ceasefire collapsed after five months on January 2015. The fact that the ceasefire was considerably fragile became more apparent when the head of the self-styled Luhansk People’s Republic declared that the ceasefire agreement does not mean that their objective to secede from Ukraine is off the table. The short-lived ceasefire coincided with the conclusion of the NATO summit in Wales, where Western leaders announced the creation of a rapid-response force to protect eastern European member states. During the summit several NATO members promised precision weapon systems to Ukraine and the Obama administration pledged $60 million of non-lethal military aid for Ukraine’s military. Under these circumstances it is not difficult to comprehend Russia’s reservedness to stick to the agreement and the final collapse of the ceasefire in January 2015. After the collapse of the ceasefire the battles between the government forces and the separatists resumed full force.

During the weeks-long surge in violence many soldiers and civilians lost their lives and all the peace talks collapsed before they came into an agreement with the two sides accusing each other of sabotaging the talks. Amid the increasingly heavy fighting in eastern Ukraine, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande, abruptly announced a summit with the Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, Russia. The French and German leaders had previously met the Ukrainian President, Petro Poroshenko, in Kiev where they discussed the steps necessary for the Minsk agreement to start working towards a peaceful resolution of the crisis. The increase in diplomatic efforts came as the US secretary of state, John Kerry, also met the Ukrainian President and other top officials in Kiev. The meeting between the leaders of Russia, France and Germany was held on February 6 behind closed doors and discussed a paper with peace proposal details that the two Western leaders brought with them in Moscow. The meeting was followed by a phone conference between the three leaders that took place on February 8 and which led to the Minsk peace talks on February 11. The marathon peace negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany resulted in a new ceasefire deal for eastern Ukraine. During the negotiations heavy fighting took place in an effort from the two fighting sides to gain as much territory as possible in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions before the ceasefire started. The key points of the ceasefire agreement for eastern Ukraine are:

• Immediate and full bilateral ceasefire. The ceasefire was going to take effect in parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions from 00:00 local time on 15 February.

• Withdrawal of all heavy weapons by both sides. That entails the creation of a buffer zone of at least 50km equally separating both sides for artillery systems of 100mm calibre or more; 70km for multiple rocket systems and 140 km for the heaviest rocket and missile systems such as Tornado, Uragan, Smerch and Tochka. Also, the Ukrainian forces have to withdraw all the heavy weapons from the current frontline. The separatists have to withdraw theirs from the line of 19 September 2014. According to the agreement, heavy weapons withdrawal must start no later than day two of the ceasefire and be completed within two weeks of February 15. The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) will assist in the process.

• Effective monitoring and verification regime for the ceasefire and withdrawal of heavy weapons. This part of the agreement is going to be carried out by the OSCE from day one, using all necessary technology such as satellites and radar.

• From day one of the withdrawal begin a dialogue on the holding of local elections. In line with the Ukrainian law on temporary self-rule for parts of Donetsk and Luhansk. There will also be a dialogue on those areas’ political future.

• Pardon and amnesty by banning any prosecution of figures involved in the Donetsk and Luhansk conflict.

• Release of all hostages and other illegally detained people. On the basis of ‘’all for all’’. To be completed at the latest on the fifth day after the military withdrawal.

• Unimpeded delivery of humanitarian aid to the needy, internationally supervised. In eastern Ukraine a humanitarian crisis currently takes place as the Ukrainian government stopped sending medical aid in these areas.

• Restoration of full social and economic links with affected areas. Including social transfers, such as payment of pensions. To that end, Ukraine will restore its banking services in districts affected by the conflict.

• Full Ukrainian government control will be restored over the state border, throughout the conflict zone. To begin on the first day after local elections and be completed after a comprehensive political settlement by the end of 2015. The local elections in rebel-controlled Donetsk and Luhansk regions will be based on Ukrainian law and constitutional reform.

• Withdrawal of all foreign armed groups, weapons and mercenaries from Ukrainian territory. This part of the agreement is going to be monitored by OSCE. All illegal groups are going to be disarmed.

• Constitutional reform in Ukraine, with adoption of a new constitution by the end of 2015. A key element of which will be decentralisation and adoption of permanent laws on the special status of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

The ceasefire agreement was also signed by the two main rebel leaders, from Donetsk and Luhansk. The agreement includes an annex on the detail of the autonomy foreseen for their fiefdoms. To the present more than 5,000 people have been killed due to the fighting. The Ukrainian President has claimed publicly that if this new effort for ceasefire and a peaceful solution to the crisis fails then he will not hesitate to introduce martial law, not only in eastern Ukraine but in the whole country. Introduction of martial law means that Ukraine’s army get to control the streets and impose curfews, ban parties and other organisations, as well as mass gatherings, conduct searches and introduce censorship. It is also permitted to claim property of businesses and private individual if the need arise. Despite the ceasefire there are reports that the fighting in eastern Ukraine continues. Days after the official commence of the ceasefire there were reports about government’s and separatists’ shelling in several areas, including around the rebel-held city of Donetsk, claiming that the ceasefire exists in name only. The shelling was also confirmed by OSCE who is charged with monitoring ceasefire. The ceasefire breaches were also reported during a new meeting between the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany on February 19 where they reconfirmed their support on the measures agreed on February 12 in Minsk. Only four days after the ceasefire came into effect the pro-Russia militants ignored the agreement and stormed Debaltseve, a strategic town in eastern Ukraine that they had surrounded, forcing thousands of government troops to flee. The Ukrainian forces suffered major losses, both in equipment and human life. After these incidents the Ukrainian President won approval from Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council to invite UN-mandated peacekeepers into the country to monitor the front line, a decision that was met with strident opposition from the pro-Russian militants.

With the battle around the rail hub of Debaltseve ending with the withdrawal of Ukrainian government forces and completion of the first prisoners’ exchange on February 21, there are some hopes that the tenuous truce in eastern Ukraine may hold. A new round of meetings to stop the fragile ceasefire from shattering have started with the foreign ministers of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany meeting in Paris on February 24 to review the situation on the ground since the accord was signed. Despite the efforts and Russia’s statements that the agreement is ‘’an international legal document’’ approved by the UN Security Council it contains some clauses that reinforce its fragility, such as Ukraine’s obligation to resume pension payments to the inhabitants of the Russia-backed regions despite the economic crisis that it faces. Also, Kiev takes on the border of rebuilding the war-ravaged region shouldering a huge economic burden. Additionally, the agreement establishes the right of the Donbass breakaway areas to establish their own people’s militias. Finally, through the agreement a powerful fifth column is created inside Ukraine as the Donbass will have the right to be represented in Ukraine’s legislature. This could enable Russia to use the Donbass to resurrect Russian ‘’soft power’’ in the context of Ukraine’s post-conflict economic crisis. The ceasefire agreement is a remarkable effort to find a solution but it seems to serve more in the creation of a frozen conflict than a viable base for the peaceful resolve the Ukrainian crisis.

Gunmen Kidnap American in Central Nigeria

Gunmen in central Nigeria have kidnapped an American woman doing missionary work.

According to Kogi state police spokesman Sola Collins Adebayo, Phyllis Sortor “was whisked away at around 10:00 am (0900 GMT) Monday” by masked gunmen, with officials indicating that ransom is the suspected motive for the kidnapping. According to the police spokesman, the attack took place in the village of Emiworo, where the missionary from the Free Methodist Church ran a community organization within the premises of a school that was linked to her church. Mr Adebayo has indicated that the kidnappers were “unknown gunmen…(who) came into the school premises shooting sporadically to scare away people before taking (the hostage) away into the bush…. We are hopeful of finding her. Our suspicion is that she was picked up for ransom.” Officials have indicated that there has been no indication that Boko Haram may be linked to Monday’s kidnapping.

A statement released by the Free Methodist Church confirmed that Ms Sortor was kidnapped, with Bishop David Kendall stating “the US Embassy has been notified, and the State Department and the FBI are working with local authorities to find and rescue her,” adding “we are calling on the US church to join together in prayer for Phyllis’ safety and speedy release.”

Foreign nationals have often been kidnapped in Nigeria by local gangs who typically release hostages once a ransom payment has been made. Such kidnappings are particularly common in the southern region of the country, especially in the oil-producing Niger Delta, where expatriates working with large oil companies have been frequently targeted. A number of foreigners have also been kidnapped in the northern region of the country, however those kidnappings have been attributed to either Boko Haram or the linked Islamist group Ansaru. Such kidnappings are different to those that occur in the south as they are not necessarily motivated by a desire for ransom. In some cases, foreigners kidnapped by Islamist groups operating in northern Nigeria have been killed while in captivity.

Yemen’s Hadi emerges, resumes presidency

24 February– On Saturday, Yemeni President Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi has escaped his house arrest in Houthi controlled Sanaa and has arrived in Aden, where he retracted his resignation and announced he would resume his governmental responsibilities. He called all measures taken by the Houthis “null and illegitimate.”

Last month, Houthis attacked the presidential palace and ministerial Cabinet, forcing both the president and prime minister to resign. Houthi militants then besieged Hadi’s residence in Sanaa and put him under house arrest. The president sent an official letter withdrawing his resignation to parliament, but the group had never formally met to accept his resignation. Hours after Hadi fled Sanaa on Saturday, Houthi officials tried to force parliamentarians to meet immediately to accept his resignation, but their efforts failed. Former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, now head of the General People’s Congress party which holds a majority of seats in parliament, said it will not push for a parliament vote to accept the resignation of Hadi.

The Houthis’ takeover of Sanaa stunned governments of Western nations, which pulled out diplomatic staff this month. Since January, the Houthis have failed to form a government or reach a deal with other political factions for the formation of a presidential council. The rebels are investigating Hadi’s escape and have arrested dozens of their own security personnel who were responsible for watching him. Sources close to Hadi say that the Houthis have also arrested two people connected to the president: his media secretary, Yahya Al Arassi, and his private physician.

In the letter sent to parliament this week, President Hadi has urged lawmakers to work with him to “salvage the salvageable and to normalise the security and economic situation in all provinces”. He has called on all government ministers to come to Aden to reconvene. Prior to 1990, Aden was the capital of the formerly independent south Yemen. Hadi’s Prime Minister, Khalid Bahah, tendered his resignation at the same time as Hadi, and remains under house arrest along with other ministers and officials in Sanaa.

A day after Hadi’s emergence, hundreds of thousands of supporters filled the streets of seven Yemeni provinces. Protesters called for Hadi to stand against the Houthi coup. In Sanaa the largest demonstrations occurred as protestors urging Hadi to end militant occupation of the capital.

In Taiz, tens of thousands took to the streets to show support for the president, carrying placards which read: “Out to militant rule, return of government institutions.”

There already had been resistance to the Houthis’ attempted takeover of national government institutions from different groups in Yemen, particularly in the South, where there’s a long-running secessionist movement.

Yemen is also home to al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, which exerts influence over many rural areas across the country. AQAP is also opposed to the Houthis, and last year vowed to attack Houthi loyalists throughout the nation. The US has been conducting regular drone strikes in AQAP controlled territories, under an agreement with President Hadi. The strikes have continued during his absence but it is uncertain how the tumultuous political landscape could impact the fight against the terrorist group.

Al-Shabaab Threatens Shopping Malls in UK, US and Canada

A video, purported to be by Somalia’s al-Qaeda-linked militant group al-Shabaab, is urging Muslims to attack shopping malls in the United States, Canada, Britain as well as other Western countries. The video comes just days after the militant group carried out a major attack in central Mogadishu, which targeted ministers of the internationally-backed government.

The threat, urging attacks on Western shopping malls, came in the final minutes of a more than hour-long video in which the extremist group also warned neighbouring Kenya of more attacks, similar to the September 2013 assault that targeted the Westgate Shopping Centre in Nairobi, in which 67 people were killed. The newly released video depicted footage from major news organizations showing the assault on the mall and said that it was in reprisal for alleged abuses by Kenyan troops against Muslims in Somalia.

The masked narrator concluded the video by calling on Muslims to attack shopping malls, specifically the Mall of America in Minnesota, as well as the West Edmonton Mall in Canada and the Westfield Mall in Stratford, England. The narrator, who had his face wrapped in a black-and-white scarf and was wearing a camouflage jacket, spoke with a British accent and appeared to be of Somali origin. Speaking in the video, the man stated, “what if such an attack were to occur in the Mall of American in Minnesota? Or the West Edmonton Mall in Canada? Or in London’s Oxford Street?” He then called for Britain’s Westfield shopping centre to be targeted.

In response to the video, US Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson has urged people to remain vigilant, adding that he took the threat serious. Speaking on morning talks show in the US on Sunday, Mr Johnson called the video “the new phase” of the global terrorist threat, stating “these groups are relying more and more on independent actors to become inspired, drawn to the cause and they’ll attack on their own,” adding “I am very concerned about serious potential threats of independent actors here in the United States. We’ve seen this now in Europe, we’ve seen this in Canada.” When asked about the specific threat against the Mall of America, Mr Johnson stated, “any time a terrorist organization calls for an attack on a specific place we’ve got to take that seriously. What we’re telling the public is you’ve got to be vigilant…. There will be enhanced security there that will be apparent, but public vigilance, public awareness and public caution in situations like this is particularly important. It’s the environment we’re in.”

A statement released by the Mall of America, which is located in Bloomington, Minnesota and which is one of the nation’s largest shopping centre’s, indicated that officials are “aware of a threatening video which includes a mention and images of the mall,” adding that additional security have been put in place. On the ground sources have reported that shoppers seemed undeterred Sunday by threat.

In Kenya, the government has dismissed the new video. Interior Ministry spokesman Mwenda Njoka stated Sunday that al-Shabaab is “…using propaganda to legitimize what cannot be legitimized. When you lead a group to go and attack a shopping mall and kill innocent shoppers that cannot be legitimized, those were not soldiers…. Muslims also died in the Westgate attack. It’s in our interest to ensure Somalia is stabilized because the instability affects us. The video is cheap propaganda trying to re-write history and to get more support from those (who) support them.”

Although al-Shabaab has carried out attacks in neighbouring Kenya, Uganda and Djibouti, which all have troops that are fighting the extremist group as part of the multinational African Union (AU) force, al-Shabaab, which is affiliated with al-Qaeda, has never operated outside East Africa and the Horn of Africa. Minnesota, which is home to the largest Somali population in the United States, has been the target of terror recruiters in the past. Since 2007, more than 22 young Somali men from Minnesota have travelled to Somalia in a bid to join al-Shabaab. Authorities have reported that within the last year a handful of Minnesota residents have also travelled to Syria to fight with militant groups operating in the region. At least one Minnesotan has died while fighting for the Islamic State group.

On Thursday, a 19-year-old Minneapolis man, who was stopped at a New York City airport in November 2014 as he ant three others were allegedly attempting to travel to Syria, was indicted on charges associated with supporting the Islamic State group.