MS Risk Blog

Water Scarcity and War

11 March – New research conducted at Columbia University suggests that climate change was a critical factor in the 2011 Syrian uprising. The research also warns that global warming is likely to unleash more wars in the coming decades.

Three-quarters of the Earth’s surface is covered with water, however only 2.5% of that water is potable freshwater, and nearly 70% of that is trapped in glaciers. Every living thing that requires freshwater for survival relies on 0.37% of the total global water supply. In many places, water consumption has begun to exceed local water recharge. The World Bank estimates that 2.8 billion people live in areas afflicted by high water stress, and they expect this figure to rise through 2050, when the human population crosses 9 billion. The UN estimates that at current rates, as many as 700 million people may become “water refugees”, forced to migrate due to water scarcity by 2025.

The Syria conflict, which has killed over 200,000 and displaced millions, is the first war that scientists have explicitly linked to climate change.  The 2011 conflict was preceded by a record drought that ravaged Syria between 2006 and 2010. The drought caused an exodus of farmers and herders into cities that were already strained form poverty and a growing number of refugees from Iraq. The research, found in the journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, suggests that the timing of the uprising is unlikely to be a coincidence. The study combined climate, social and economic data relating to the “Fertile Crescent”, a crucial agricultural and herding area which spans parts of Turkey and much of Syria and Iraq. The region has warmed by between 1 and 1.2C since 1900, and rainfall in the wet season has diminished by an average of 10%.

In Syria, the ruling al-Assad regime encouraged the development of water-intensive export crops such as cotton. Water scarcity was then worsened by the illegal drilling of irrigation wells that dramatically depleted groundwater which would have otherwise provided valuable reserves, the report said. The drought’s effects were immediate. Agriculture production, a quarter of Syria’s economy, plummeted by a third. Livestock decreased significantly and the price of cereal doubled. As many as 1.5 million people fled from the country to the city.Further, these impacts were coupled with rapid population growth, from 4 million in the 1950s to 22 million today amongst the rising population, nutrition-related diseases among children increased dramatically. Lead author of the report, Colin Kelley, says, “Whether it was a primary or substantial factor is impossible to know, but drought can lead to devastating consequences when coupled with pre-existing acute vulnerability.”

Demand for basic commodities such as wheat and copper is expected to rise over the next two decades. Chatham House think-tank has warned that relatively small shocks to supply risk can cause sudden price rises and trigger “overreactions or even militarised responses.”

The report also sites that Turkey, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, and Iraq are among those most at risk from drought because of the intensity of the drying and the history of conflict in the region. Beyond the Middle East, drought can be found in other regions where conflict have emerged, including Afghanistan and East African countries such as Somalia and Sudan, and parts of Central America – especially Mexico, which is afflicted by crime, is politically unstable, short of water and reliant on agriculture.

Yemen: the first country to run out of water?

On the other side of the Arabian Peninsula, Yemen, which has been beset with conflict and instability for years, is likely to become the first country in the world to run out of water. Experts believe that Sana’a, the nation’s internationally recognised capital (although the president has recently moved his operations to Aden), will run dry by 2025, causing extreme water scarcity for its 2 million residents and leading to a potential exodus. The majority of Yemen’s water resources are used to grow khat. Khat is a mild stimulant and appetite suppressant, but accounts for 40% of the nation’s water supply. Within the nation, between 70-80% of rural conflict stems from water-related disputes.

Water as a weapon

Water has become both a weapon and a military objective during. During Libya’s civil war in 2011, Muammar Gaddafi’s forces shut-off two-thirds of Tripoli’s water supplies, leaving almost half the country short of water. In Syria, rebels have targeted the water system in their fight against the Assad regime. In 2012, terrorist insurgents in Afghanistan poisoned a well near a girls’ school in Afghanistan in order to punish those receiving an education. Similarly during the conflict in Darfur, number of wells were poisoned as part of a campaign to intimidate local residents.

A report on Global Water Security, published in 2012 by the United Sates Director of National Intelligence, states that that the demand for water would lead to an increased risk of conflict in the future. The Pacific Institute, which tracks water-related conflicts, has reported an increase in the number of violent confrontations that have recently occurred over water.

Nearly 1.2 billion people in the Middle East and Africa live in regions where water is a physical scarcity. However the some argue that hostilities may not just emerge over water itself, but water shortages will become a catalyst for other critical issues. The lack of water is likely to worsen problems by driving up the prices of food, impacting economies and costs of living, and forcing migration. This could lead to armed conflict to secure valuable water resources. In this regard, experts believe that conflict over water scarcity may take the form of local intra-state battles rather than nation-on-nation battles. The key take-away: battles of these types are becoming increasingly likely. Poor governments may lack the funding or infrastructure to support growing water needs, and wealthy countries have sometimes been lax with protecting their water supply, leading to contamination. The global market is so interwoven that water shortages can affect exports of commodities around the world. For example, the United Kingdom imports as much as 40% of its food. It is therefore incumbent upon international governments to address water scarcity before water related conflict becomes the norm.

Boko Haram Pledges Allegiance to IS

In an audio message posted online Saturday, Boko Haram has pledged allegiance to the Islamic State (IS) group. The statement comes on the same day as three bombs exploded in northeastern Nigeria and comes as both militant groups are increasingly under pressure from regional forces.

Boko Haram Claims Allegiance

In the audio message, Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau stated “we announce our allegiance to the Caliph of the Muslims, Ibrahim ibn Awad ibn Ibrahim al-Husseini al-Qurashi,” referring to IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Shekau also called on “…Muslims everywhere to pledge allegiance to the caliph.” The eight-minute speech, in which Shekau is not shown, was posted on a Twitter account that is used by Boko Haram and subtitled in English, French and Arabic. The move of pledging allegiance is no surprise however it comes at a time when Boko Haram is under growing pressure as regional forces have been targeting towns and villages under the militant group’s control. Furthermore, the announcement can be seen as an almost desperate move by an Islamist group attempting to remain relevant as it increasingly looses territory in northeastern Nigeria.

While Shekau had previously mentioned al-Baghdadi in video messages, until now he stopped short of pledging formal allegiance; however there have been increasing signs that the militant group has been seeking closer ties with IS. Last year, months after IS grabbed control of swathes of territory in eastern Syria and across northern and western Iraq, and announced the establishment of a caliphate, Shekau announced that the captured town of Gwoza, in Borno state, was part of a caliphate. In recent weeks, Boko Haram has also been increasingly producing videos that resemble IS group propaganda. This includes a video that was released last week, which purported to show the beheading of two men. This video demonstrates that the militant group is increasingly seeking inspiration from global militant networks, including IS.

While it is difficult to assess the immediate effect of Shekau’s statement, the announcement of an allegiance comes as both militant groups are increasingly being targeted by regional forces.

Boko Haram’s announcement comes as the militant group has been forced out of their captured territory by the Nigerian army and regional allies, a move that has forced the militant group to return to its previous campaign of urban guerrilla warfare. Similarly, while IS seized territory across Iraq and Syria last year, its expansion in its core territories has been stalled by local forces that have been backed by the United States. The announcement of allegiance is something that both groups need at the moment and will likely aid them in raising morale amongst their fighters and garner further global attention. For Boko Haram legitimacy will likely help its commanders in recruiting, funding and logistics as the militant group seeks to expand its operations in West Africa, particularly into neighbouring Cameroon and Chad. In turn, IS receives more legitimacy as a global caliphate.   However the allegiance between Boko Haram and IS will only be official when an IS leader, such as spokesman Abu Mohammed al Adnani, issues a statement – a move that may occur in the coming days.

Boko Haram Attacks Maiduguri

Early Saturday, four bomb blasts killed at least fifty-eight people in the northeastern city of Maiduguri in what was the worst attack since Boko Haram attempted to seized the town in two major assaults earlier this year. Female suicide bomber are believed to have acted for the group, launching a series of attacks in markets while another attack was reported at a bus station.

On Saturday, a woman with explosives strapped to her body blew herself up at about 11:20 am (1020 GMT) at Baga fish market in the Borno state capital city, Maiduguri. About an hour later, another blast targeted the Post Office shopping area, which is located near the market. A further series of bombs targeted the popular Monday Market, causing chaos as locals voiced anger at security forces who struggled to control the scene. Just after 1:00 pm, a fourth blast targeted a used car lot, which is located next to the busy Borno Express bus terminal. In a fifth incident, a car bomb exploded at a military checkpoint 75 kilometres outside the city. A soldier and two members of a civilian defence unit were injured. Sources have reported that the attack had wanted to reach Maiduguri.

The fear of further attacks prompted the closure of all businesses in Maiduguri. Sources have indicated that the second and third attacks were also carried out by suicide bombers however police officials have not provided any details. Borno’s police commissioner Clement Adoba indicated that the death toll stood at 58 “for the three locations” and 143 wounded, however officials have warned that the death toll is likely to rise over the coming days. Borno state’s Justice Commissioner Kaka Shehu has blamed the attack on Boko Haram, stating that it is a response to the defeats that they have suffered in recent weeks.

Libya fighting intensifies as Haftar sworn in

9 March – In the latest series of “tit-for-tat” strikes, warplanes from Libya’s internationally recognized government (based in Tobruk) attacked the last functioning airport in Tripoli, which is held by the rival administration. The two opposing governments have been battling for control of the nation and its vast oil resources, causing spiralling violence in the north of the country.

“Warplanes conducted air strikes this morning on Mitiga airport but there was no damage,” airport spokesman Abdulsalam Buamoud said. “Flights were suspended for only an hour … but now the airport is working normally.”

Spokesman for the Tobruk-led military, Mohamed al-Hejazi, the airport was targeted because it is “outside state legitimacy”, adding that weapons and fighters which were heading to western Libya come through the Tripoli airport. Western Libya has become a sort of base for Islamist militants who have exploited the chaos between the governments.

Haftar Sworn In:

The attack coincided with the swearing-in of Khalifa Haftar as army commander for the recognized government. Haftar has been vocally opposed to the Tripoli based government since February 2014 and attempted to seize the parliament building and halt their activities. The Tripoli government called his actions an attempt at a coup. Shortly thereafter, Haftar began “Operation Dignity”, a self-declared war against Islamist militants in Benghazi which gained great support from military forces and civil society. However Haftar has also been met with opposition from those who criticise his attacks on civilian air and sea ports. Today, Libya’s internationally recognised President Abdullah al-Thani and his parliament have formally allied with Haftar. The Tripoli-based rival government has denounced Haftar as “war criminal.”

Haftar’s appointment as army commander will complicate mediation efforts by the United Nations which began last week in Morocco. The UN has been trying to persuade both sides to form a national government and said on Saturday that progress had been made at talks in Morocco. Delegates will return this week for more negotiations after consultations at home, but both factions face internal divisions over the negotiations.

ISIS attacks oil fields:
Meanwhile, in the midst of the government battles, the Tobruk government’s military spokesman, Ahmed al-Mesmari, says that militants affiliated with the terrorist group Islamic State affiliate beheaded eight guards after an assault on al-Ghani oil field last week, during which nine foreigners were abducted. Al-Mesmari did not elaborate on how the army knows about the beheadings but the force serving as oil guards is closely allied to the Tobruk military. Authorities in the Philippines and Austria confirmed that nine of their citizens were abducted during the attack, however the beheadings have not been confirmed.

The attack was part of a string of militant strikes targeting oil fields in the nation. Libya declared a force majeure related to 11 oil fields in the centre of country after a string of attacks against the facilities by ISIS. In a statement posted on its website, state-owned National Oil Company (NOC) said it was no longer able to ensure security in the 11 fields. By declaring force majeure, the nation can guarantee legal protections from claims against any future disruptions. Libya is pumping about 500,000 barrels of crude oil a day, three times less than its peak output. The Dahra oil field, about 310 miles southeast of Tripoli, was attacked late on Tuesday, hours after two other oil facilities were targeted by the militants. Colonel Hakim Maazab, a commander of the oil guards in the area said his men had regained control of the field late on Wednesday. Mabruk and Bahi oil fields in central Libya that were stormed for a second time by unknown gunmen on Monday and Tuesday, after experiencing similar attacks in February. Mabruk once produced 30,000 to 40,000 barrels a day and is operated by a Libyan joint venture with French oil firm Total SA. It was occupied again overnight on Tuesday by the militants, who claim to represent Islamic State and killed nine guards there last month. Bahi and Dahra are operated by a partnership with U.S. oil companies Marathon Oil Corp., Hess Corp. and ConocoPhillips. Colonel Maazab said on Wednesday that the gunmen had withdrawn from Mabruk after inflicting heavy damage on the facilities, destroying oil tanks and the control room. “Daesh (Arabic slur for ISIS) blew up a lot of equipment,” he said.

The European Burden of Kosovo’s 2015 Exodus

Seven years after Kosovo’s declaration of independence, faced with failed European Union visa arrangements, high unemployment rates, and low job security, an estimated 100,000 of Kosovo’s citizens have made the choice to illegally migrate towards Western Europe. Furthermore, Kosovo’s political situation is another push factor spurring the illegal migration. Many of Kosovo’s citizens are not just frustrated by the country’s economic woes, but also the political turbulence and corruption facing Kosovo’s future. Last month Kosovo saw the most significant civilian and political unrest, followed by mass protests, since it’s declaration of independence in 2008. The political crisis coupled with economic instability has meant many of Kosovo’s citizens are willing to make the illegal journey westward where they hope to find jobs and better living conditions for their families.

The mass illegal migration of Kosovo’s citizens seeking asylum in the EU block during the past three months has now become a foreign policy problem, as EU countries struggle to deal with the burden of illegal migrants infiltrating their borders. In so far as to say, mass exodus of Kosovo’s citizens has created a growing problem for many countries in the EU, in particular, the highly sought recipient countries of Germany, France, and Austria. However, Serbia and Hungry, which are the predominant transit countries for the illegal migration, have been hit with an alarming notion of just how porous their borders are, as migrants from Kosovo seep through westwards onto EU’s borderless Schengen area.

The exodus follows a relaxation of travel regulations in Serbia in 2012, which were encouraged by the EU, as a part of Serbia’s path to EU accession. Since 2012, Serbia has allowed people to enter its borders with Kosovo-issued documents. Once in Serbia, Kosovo’s migrants legally make their way to the popular border crossing of Subotica, where they then illegally cross the Serbian-Hungarian border into Hungary. Hungary has since seen a startling rise in asylum seekers from Kosovo, with 10,000 people filing for asylum in Hungary in February alone, compared to 6,000 for the whole of 2013. However, whilst Hungary is the preferred transit-state westwards, it is not the preferred destination. According to Hungary’s Office of Immigration and Nationality, which deals with administrative duties related to asylum, citizenship, and aliens policing issues, an estimated 40-50% of asylum applicants normally leave the country within 24 hours, and a further 30-40% within 3-10 days.

The flow of illegal migrants from Kosovo has proven to be a lucrative operation for people smugglers, as they exploit the easily infiltrated border at Subotica. Admittedly, those from Kosovo make up the most substantial numbers of illegal migrants crossing the border, but as the most favorable passage for people smugglers; Syrians, Afghans, and Iraqis, among other nationalities, are also being smuggled through the border. In an effort to quell the startling number of illegal immigrants entering the EU, in particular the most favored destination of Germany, Hungarian authorities permanently patrol the frontier region. However, it would seem such measures are not enough. From February, German police, equipped with vehicles operating thermal vision cameras, have started to aid Serbia and Hungary in border patrols. Whilst the extent to which increased border patrols and tightened security will affect the flow of illegal migrants is yet to be seen, the alarming number of Kosovo’s citizens traveling westwards in search of a better life does not show any signs of abating.

Liberia Records No New Cases of Ebola

Liberia has released its last Ebola patient as the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that the West African country has gone a week without reporting any new Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) cases.

Beatrice Yardolo, 58, has been released from a Chinese-run treatment centre in the capital Monrovia’s Paynesville district after receiving two weeks of treatment. She was the last patient undergoing treatment for the disease in Liberia.

According to new figures released by the WHO this week, there were 132 new cases reported in Guinea and Sierra Leone in the week leading up to 1 March. For the first time since May 2014, Liberia reported no new cases of the deadly virus. While the West African country has now effectively begun its count towards being declared Ebola-free, WHO officials have warned that due to populations being mobile in the region, there could easily be a new outbreak in Liberia. According to WHO spokesman Gregory Hartl, “we look at the three countries as really a single country, so while its good news that Liberia itself has no new cases, the populations are so mobile in that region that there could easily be re-importations of cases… We have to get down to zero in all three countries before we can consider the thing beaten.”

In the week leading up to 1 March, Sierra Leone registered 81 new confirmed cases, up from the 65 that were reported the week before. According to the WHO, transmission in the country “remains widespread,” with officials highlighting that new cases emerged in eight different districts across the country, with rising numbers in the capital city Freetown, as well as in the Western Rural district and in the northern district of Bombali. WHO officials have indicated that the outbreak in Bombali is reportedly linked to a cluster of cases in the Aberdeen fishing community in Freetown. Efforts are currently underway in order to trace over 2,000 contacts associated with that cluster.

Last week, Guinea registered 51 new confirmed cases of EVD, marking a significant increase from the 35 new cases that had been reported during the previous seven-day period. The country, which in total has recorded 3,219 cases and 2,129 deaths, also saw an increase in the number of new cases recorded in the capital city Conakry and in the nearby district of Forecariah.

The WHO has reported that over the past week, both Guinea and Sierra Leone continued to see high numbers of people dying of Ebola in their communities, “suggesting that the need for early isolation and treatment is not yet understood, accepted or acted upon.” More than half of the 32 confirmed Ebola deaths recorded in Guinea over the last week occurred in the community rather than in treatment centres, while 16 percent did in Sierra Leone. WHO officials have also noted that unsafe burials continue to be a problem in the two West African countries, with 16 registered in the last week.

Since the outbreak began in December 2013, 23,969 people in nine countries have been infected with the virus, and 9,807 have died.