MS Risk Blog

Afghan and Pakistani Taliban Links to Islamic State

Reports and rumours of disaffected Afghan and Pakistani Taliban insurgents pledging their allegiance to the Islamic State (IS) terror group have been circulating since late September last year. In southern Zabul and Helmand provinces, Mullah Abdul Rauf, a former Taliban commander recently killed in an air strike, was alleged to have been recruiting fighters on behalf of IS. In Kunar and Farah provinces, jihadi training camps have been established while in Ghazni and Paktika provinces, Afghan government officials have announced that hundreds of IS-affiliated foreign fighters posing as refugees have been fighting under the black flag. Although many of these claims have been hard to verify independently, sufficient evidence has emerged in recent months to support the belief that the IS wish to expand their operations into Southern Asia. It is, however, unclear to what extent they have succeeded in doing so.

In response to tactical losses in Iraq and Syria, the Islamic State has recently been pursuing a strategy designed to preserve its operational capability from destruction. While its primary objective is to defend the territories currently under its control in Iraq and Syria, forays into Lebanon, Libya and elsewhere have proven that its territorial ambitions are not limited to a small corner of the Middle East but are on a vast, global scale. In January 2015, IS spokesperson Sheikh Abu Muhammad al-Adnani al-Shami outlined the Islamic State’s agenda in Southern Asia. In a press release published by the Islamic State’s media wing, Al-Furqan, al Adnani announced the so-called caliphate’s expansion to Khorasan— a geopolitical entity which includes part of Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, Central Asia, India and China. Meanwhile, In a separate press release which also appeared in the middle of January, former Pakistani Taliban member Shahidullah Shahid revealed the names of the individuals who would take command of various parts of Afghanistan, including the name of the chapter’s leader, Hafez Saeed Khan, a former commander in the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP). More recently, the Islamic State announced the creation of Khorasan Shura – a leadership council for Pakistan and Afghanistan which is almost entirely made up of former TTP leaders. By establishing this council, the IS demonstrated its desire to establish influence amongst Pakistani and Afghani jihadis.

In aligning itself with former AfPak militant commanders and local jihadist groups, the Islamic State’s purpose has been twofold: first, it wants to establish a network of individuals who possess highly developed local knowledge and are capable of launching independent military operations; second, it hopes to polarise public opinion against the U.S led coalition, thereby preparing the ground for further IS expansion. However, these objectives have met with some resistance from local insurgent groups. After al Adnani announced the Khorasan expansion, he also called on: “all the mujahideed in Khorasan to join the caravan of the khalifah [caliph] and abandon disunity and factionalism.” In issuing this call to arms, Al-Adnani and the Islamic State may have inadvertently entered into a turf war with the Afghani Taliban. First, long-standing ideological conventions may prevent some Taliban loyalists from accepting Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as khalifah  because Mullah Mohammad Omar, the Supreme Leader of the Taliban, holds the position of Amir ul-Momimeen (Commander of the Faithful Believers). Second, the Afghan Taliban is a nationalist insurgent group: its chief goal is to overthrow the current Afghan government. In contrast, the Islamic state is a expansionist organisation determined to establish its caliphate. Third, the IS split from al Qaeda, a Taliban ally, in February 2014, making an IS-Taliban joint venture even less plausible.

While increased cooperation between the Afghan Taliban and the Islamic State seems unlikely, conditions may be more suitable for greater IS penetration in Pakistan. In the first place, Pakistan has a reputation for fostering the growth and expansion of Sunni militant groups and, unlike Afghanistan, is riven by deep, sectarian cleavages that the profoundly anti-Shiite IS may be able to exploit. Furthermore, Pakistani militants have shown themselves to be more susceptible to IS overtures than their Afghani counterparts, a factor which may result in the ultimate dissolution of the TTP if more and more Taliban commanders and fighters defect. Should the TTP disintegrate, one possible outcome is that the Pakistani government, which continues to use terrorist groups to advance its foreign policy, might bestow their patronage on the Islamic State. Another possibility is that an intra-jihadist struggle will emerge between groups trying to retain their influence and autonomy within the region.

Although Afghanistan and Pakistan both face more immediate problems from local insurgent groups, the threat posed by the Islamic State cannot be ignored. Steps must be taken immediately to ensure that the IS cannot gain a foothold in the AfPak region. Otherwise, the expansion of the IS caliphate may continue unabated throughout Eastern Asia.

Liberia Reports No New Ebola Cases for More Than Two Weeks

World Health Organization (WHO) officials disclosed Wednesday that Liberia has not registered any new Ebola cases since 19 February, adding that there have also been some improving signs in neighbouring Guinea and Sierra Leone.

According to latest figures released by the WHO, since the outbreak began in December 2013, 24,282 people in nine countries have been infected with the virus and 9,976 of them have died. All but fifteen of those deaths occurred in the three West African countries. In the week leading up to 8 March, a total of 116 new confirmed cases of Ebola were reported, compared with 132 that were registered in the previous week.

Liberia

The tide in Liberia, which six months ago was reporting more than 300 new cases per week, appears to have turned. According to Bruce Aylward, who heads the WHO’s Ebola response, Liberia “has now gone well over two weeks without a new reported case.” Last week, the West African nation released its last confirmed Ebola patient, who had tested negative for the deadly virus for the second time on 3 March. On 4 March, Liberia effectively began its 42-day, or two incubation-period, countdown towards being considered Ebola-free. Liberia has been one of the hardest hit countries in the Ebola epidemic and still counts the most deaths in the outbreak, at 4,162.

Guinea and Sierra Leone

While neighbouring Guinea and Sierra Leone continue to report new cases, Aylward has highlighted some positive signs.

In the week leading up to 8 March, Guinea reported 58 new confirmed cases, compared with 51 cases that were reported in the previous week. Cases were clustered in an area in and around the capital city Conakry (13 cases) as well as in the nearby prefectures of Boffa (2 cases), Coyah (8 cases), Dubreka (5 cases); Forecariah (28 cases) and Kindia (2 cases). In the forest region of Guinea, where the deadly outbreak first began 15 months ago, no new cases have been reported in the last ten days.

While in Sierra Leone, which currently counts the most cases of the virus at 11,619, only 58 new confirmed cases were reported over the last week – the lowest number to be reported since June 2014. Eighty-one cases were reported in the previous week. Cases were reported in 5 northern and western districts located around the capital Freetown, which reported 27 new confirmed cases. The neighbouring districts of Bombali (6 cases), Kambia (7 cases), Port Loko (12 cases) and Western Rural (6 cases). With the exception of 4 districts in the southern region of the country, all districts in Sierra Leone have reported a confirmed case of Ebola over the past 21 days.

Officials at the WHO have warned that while they are seeing improvements in Guinea and Sierra Leone, if international attention, determination and funding to end the outbreak declines, “there is a huge risk of failing to do so.” Furthermore, continued resistance within some communities in Sierra Leone and Guinea is also threatening progress. WHO officials have noted that in both countries, some Ebola patients are still not being isolated and treated while some unsafe burials are still going on.

Water Scarcity and War

11 March – New research conducted at Columbia University suggests that climate change was a critical factor in the 2011 Syrian uprising. The research also warns that global warming is likely to unleash more wars in the coming decades.

Three-quarters of the Earth’s surface is covered with water, however only 2.5% of that water is potable freshwater, and nearly 70% of that is trapped in glaciers. Every living thing that requires freshwater for survival relies on 0.37% of the total global water supply. In many places, water consumption has begun to exceed local water recharge. The World Bank estimates that 2.8 billion people live in areas afflicted by high water stress, and they expect this figure to rise through 2050, when the human population crosses 9 billion. The UN estimates that at current rates, as many as 700 million people may become “water refugees”, forced to migrate due to water scarcity by 2025.

The Syria conflict, which has killed over 200,000 and displaced millions, is the first war that scientists have explicitly linked to climate change.  The 2011 conflict was preceded by a record drought that ravaged Syria between 2006 and 2010. The drought caused an exodus of farmers and herders into cities that were already strained form poverty and a growing number of refugees from Iraq. The research, found in the journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, suggests that the timing of the uprising is unlikely to be a coincidence. The study combined climate, social and economic data relating to the “Fertile Crescent”, a crucial agricultural and herding area which spans parts of Turkey and much of Syria and Iraq. The region has warmed by between 1 and 1.2C since 1900, and rainfall in the wet season has diminished by an average of 10%.

In Syria, the ruling al-Assad regime encouraged the development of water-intensive export crops such as cotton. Water scarcity was then worsened by the illegal drilling of irrigation wells that dramatically depleted groundwater which would have otherwise provided valuable reserves, the report said. The drought’s effects were immediate. Agriculture production, a quarter of Syria’s economy, plummeted by a third. Livestock decreased significantly and the price of cereal doubled. As many as 1.5 million people fled from the country to the city.Further, these impacts were coupled with rapid population growth, from 4 million in the 1950s to 22 million today amongst the rising population, nutrition-related diseases among children increased dramatically. Lead author of the report, Colin Kelley, says, “Whether it was a primary or substantial factor is impossible to know, but drought can lead to devastating consequences when coupled with pre-existing acute vulnerability.”

Demand for basic commodities such as wheat and copper is expected to rise over the next two decades. Chatham House think-tank has warned that relatively small shocks to supply risk can cause sudden price rises and trigger “overreactions or even militarised responses.”

The report also sites that Turkey, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, and Iraq are among those most at risk from drought because of the intensity of the drying and the history of conflict in the region. Beyond the Middle East, drought can be found in other regions where conflict have emerged, including Afghanistan and East African countries such as Somalia and Sudan, and parts of Central America – especially Mexico, which is afflicted by crime, is politically unstable, short of water and reliant on agriculture.

Yemen: the first country to run out of water?

On the other side of the Arabian Peninsula, Yemen, which has been beset with conflict and instability for years, is likely to become the first country in the world to run out of water. Experts believe that Sana’a, the nation’s internationally recognised capital (although the president has recently moved his operations to Aden), will run dry by 2025, causing extreme water scarcity for its 2 million residents and leading to a potential exodus. The majority of Yemen’s water resources are used to grow khat. Khat is a mild stimulant and appetite suppressant, but accounts for 40% of the nation’s water supply. Within the nation, between 70-80% of rural conflict stems from water-related disputes.

Water as a weapon

Water has become both a weapon and a military objective during. During Libya’s civil war in 2011, Muammar Gaddafi’s forces shut-off two-thirds of Tripoli’s water supplies, leaving almost half the country short of water. In Syria, rebels have targeted the water system in their fight against the Assad regime. In 2012, terrorist insurgents in Afghanistan poisoned a well near a girls’ school in Afghanistan in order to punish those receiving an education. Similarly during the conflict in Darfur, number of wells were poisoned as part of a campaign to intimidate local residents.

A report on Global Water Security, published in 2012 by the United Sates Director of National Intelligence, states that that the demand for water would lead to an increased risk of conflict in the future. The Pacific Institute, which tracks water-related conflicts, has reported an increase in the number of violent confrontations that have recently occurred over water.

Nearly 1.2 billion people in the Middle East and Africa live in regions where water is a physical scarcity. However the some argue that hostilities may not just emerge over water itself, but water shortages will become a catalyst for other critical issues. The lack of water is likely to worsen problems by driving up the prices of food, impacting economies and costs of living, and forcing migration. This could lead to armed conflict to secure valuable water resources. In this regard, experts believe that conflict over water scarcity may take the form of local intra-state battles rather than nation-on-nation battles. The key take-away: battles of these types are becoming increasingly likely. Poor governments may lack the funding or infrastructure to support growing water needs, and wealthy countries have sometimes been lax with protecting their water supply, leading to contamination. The global market is so interwoven that water shortages can affect exports of commodities around the world. For example, the United Kingdom imports as much as 40% of its food. It is therefore incumbent upon international governments to address water scarcity before water related conflict becomes the norm.

Boko Haram Pledges Allegiance to IS

In an audio message posted online Saturday, Boko Haram has pledged allegiance to the Islamic State (IS) group. The statement comes on the same day as three bombs exploded in northeastern Nigeria and comes as both militant groups are increasingly under pressure from regional forces.

Boko Haram Claims Allegiance

In the audio message, Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau stated “we announce our allegiance to the Caliph of the Muslims, Ibrahim ibn Awad ibn Ibrahim al-Husseini al-Qurashi,” referring to IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Shekau also called on “…Muslims everywhere to pledge allegiance to the caliph.” The eight-minute speech, in which Shekau is not shown, was posted on a Twitter account that is used by Boko Haram and subtitled in English, French and Arabic. The move of pledging allegiance is no surprise however it comes at a time when Boko Haram is under growing pressure as regional forces have been targeting towns and villages under the militant group’s control. Furthermore, the announcement can be seen as an almost desperate move by an Islamist group attempting to remain relevant as it increasingly looses territory in northeastern Nigeria.

While Shekau had previously mentioned al-Baghdadi in video messages, until now he stopped short of pledging formal allegiance; however there have been increasing signs that the militant group has been seeking closer ties with IS. Last year, months after IS grabbed control of swathes of territory in eastern Syria and across northern and western Iraq, and announced the establishment of a caliphate, Shekau announced that the captured town of Gwoza, in Borno state, was part of a caliphate. In recent weeks, Boko Haram has also been increasingly producing videos that resemble IS group propaganda. This includes a video that was released last week, which purported to show the beheading of two men. This video demonstrates that the militant group is increasingly seeking inspiration from global militant networks, including IS.

While it is difficult to assess the immediate effect of Shekau’s statement, the announcement of an allegiance comes as both militant groups are increasingly being targeted by regional forces.

Boko Haram’s announcement comes as the militant group has been forced out of their captured territory by the Nigerian army and regional allies, a move that has forced the militant group to return to its previous campaign of urban guerrilla warfare. Similarly, while IS seized territory across Iraq and Syria last year, its expansion in its core territories has been stalled by local forces that have been backed by the United States. The announcement of allegiance is something that both groups need at the moment and will likely aid them in raising morale amongst their fighters and garner further global attention. For Boko Haram legitimacy will likely help its commanders in recruiting, funding and logistics as the militant group seeks to expand its operations in West Africa, particularly into neighbouring Cameroon and Chad. In turn, IS receives more legitimacy as a global caliphate.   However the allegiance between Boko Haram and IS will only be official when an IS leader, such as spokesman Abu Mohammed al Adnani, issues a statement – a move that may occur in the coming days.

Boko Haram Attacks Maiduguri

Early Saturday, four bomb blasts killed at least fifty-eight people in the northeastern city of Maiduguri in what was the worst attack since Boko Haram attempted to seized the town in two major assaults earlier this year. Female suicide bomber are believed to have acted for the group, launching a series of attacks in markets while another attack was reported at a bus station.

On Saturday, a woman with explosives strapped to her body blew herself up at about 11:20 am (1020 GMT) at Baga fish market in the Borno state capital city, Maiduguri. About an hour later, another blast targeted the Post Office shopping area, which is located near the market. A further series of bombs targeted the popular Monday Market, causing chaos as locals voiced anger at security forces who struggled to control the scene. Just after 1:00 pm, a fourth blast targeted a used car lot, which is located next to the busy Borno Express bus terminal. In a fifth incident, a car bomb exploded at a military checkpoint 75 kilometres outside the city. A soldier and two members of a civilian defence unit were injured. Sources have reported that the attack had wanted to reach Maiduguri.

The fear of further attacks prompted the closure of all businesses in Maiduguri. Sources have indicated that the second and third attacks were also carried out by suicide bombers however police officials have not provided any details. Borno’s police commissioner Clement Adoba indicated that the death toll stood at 58 “for the three locations” and 143 wounded, however officials have warned that the death toll is likely to rise over the coming days. Borno state’s Justice Commissioner Kaka Shehu has blamed the attack on Boko Haram, stating that it is a response to the defeats that they have suffered in recent weeks.

Libya fighting intensifies as Haftar sworn in

9 March – In the latest series of “tit-for-tat” strikes, warplanes from Libya’s internationally recognized government (based in Tobruk) attacked the last functioning airport in Tripoli, which is held by the rival administration. The two opposing governments have been battling for control of the nation and its vast oil resources, causing spiralling violence in the north of the country.

“Warplanes conducted air strikes this morning on Mitiga airport but there was no damage,” airport spokesman Abdulsalam Buamoud said. “Flights were suspended for only an hour … but now the airport is working normally.”

Spokesman for the Tobruk-led military, Mohamed al-Hejazi, the airport was targeted because it is “outside state legitimacy”, adding that weapons and fighters which were heading to western Libya come through the Tripoli airport. Western Libya has become a sort of base for Islamist militants who have exploited the chaos between the governments.

Haftar Sworn In:

The attack coincided with the swearing-in of Khalifa Haftar as army commander for the recognized government. Haftar has been vocally opposed to the Tripoli based government since February 2014 and attempted to seize the parliament building and halt their activities. The Tripoli government called his actions an attempt at a coup. Shortly thereafter, Haftar began “Operation Dignity”, a self-declared war against Islamist militants in Benghazi which gained great support from military forces and civil society. However Haftar has also been met with opposition from those who criticise his attacks on civilian air and sea ports. Today, Libya’s internationally recognised President Abdullah al-Thani and his parliament have formally allied with Haftar. The Tripoli-based rival government has denounced Haftar as “war criminal.”

Haftar’s appointment as army commander will complicate mediation efforts by the United Nations which began last week in Morocco. The UN has been trying to persuade both sides to form a national government and said on Saturday that progress had been made at talks in Morocco. Delegates will return this week for more negotiations after consultations at home, but both factions face internal divisions over the negotiations.

ISIS attacks oil fields:
Meanwhile, in the midst of the government battles, the Tobruk government’s military spokesman, Ahmed al-Mesmari, says that militants affiliated with the terrorist group Islamic State affiliate beheaded eight guards after an assault on al-Ghani oil field last week, during which nine foreigners were abducted. Al-Mesmari did not elaborate on how the army knows about the beheadings but the force serving as oil guards is closely allied to the Tobruk military. Authorities in the Philippines and Austria confirmed that nine of their citizens were abducted during the attack, however the beheadings have not been confirmed.

The attack was part of a string of militant strikes targeting oil fields in the nation. Libya declared a force majeure related to 11 oil fields in the centre of country after a string of attacks against the facilities by ISIS. In a statement posted on its website, state-owned National Oil Company (NOC) said it was no longer able to ensure security in the 11 fields. By declaring force majeure, the nation can guarantee legal protections from claims against any future disruptions. Libya is pumping about 500,000 barrels of crude oil a day, three times less than its peak output. The Dahra oil field, about 310 miles southeast of Tripoli, was attacked late on Tuesday, hours after two other oil facilities were targeted by the militants. Colonel Hakim Maazab, a commander of the oil guards in the area said his men had regained control of the field late on Wednesday. Mabruk and Bahi oil fields in central Libya that were stormed for a second time by unknown gunmen on Monday and Tuesday, after experiencing similar attacks in February. Mabruk once produced 30,000 to 40,000 barrels a day and is operated by a Libyan joint venture with French oil firm Total SA. It was occupied again overnight on Tuesday by the militants, who claim to represent Islamic State and killed nine guards there last month. Bahi and Dahra are operated by a partnership with U.S. oil companies Marathon Oil Corp., Hess Corp. and ConocoPhillips. Colonel Maazab said on Wednesday that the gunmen had withdrawn from Mabruk after inflicting heavy damage on the facilities, destroying oil tanks and the control room. “Daesh (Arabic slur for ISIS) blew up a lot of equipment,” he said.