MS Risk Blog

Yemen Update: 25 March 2014

Early this morning, five officials stated that Yemen’s embattled President Had had fled his Aden home for an undisclosed location as Shiite Houthi rebels near his last refuge. The officials spoke just hours after the Houthi controlled station announced that they seized near the city where Hadi had relocated administrative operations.

The Houthi rebels have issued a bounty of 20 million Yemeni rial ($100,000) for the capture of President Hadi as they near his last refuge. It has been reported that Hadi left Aden by helicopter, accompanied by diplomats from Saudi Arabia, from the Maasheeq presidential palace. Other sources, however, denied that Hadi fled Aden, and claim that he is still leading the armed resistance against the Shia militants.

Both the rebels and officials close to President Hadi both have also said that Yemen’s Defence Minister, Major General Mahmoud al-Subaihi, and his top aide, had been arrested by the Houthis. The Minister was reportedly captured while fighting the Houthis in Lahj province.

The Houthis captured al-Anad base, where U.S. troops and Europeans advised the country in its fight against al-Qaida. The rebels were reportedly advancing toward Hawttah, the capital of Yemen’s southern Lahj province. Hawttah is less than 19 miles, from Aden. President Hadi fled after escaping weeks of house arrest under Houthi guard in Sana’a. One source who lives near the air base said the Houthis were backed by “army soldiers.”

A day earlier, Hadi called on United Nations Security Council to adopt a resolution allowing “all willing countries” to take any necessary measures to stop the Houthis’ aggression. He did not rule out military action. The violence in Yemen is threatening to escalate into civil war. Yemen’s northern neighbour, Saudi Arabia fears that the kingdom will be drawn into the fighting.

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal said this week that Gulf Cooperation Council countries will take “necessary measures to protect the region” from the Houthis. The six-nation GCC includes Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain.

As a measure of defence, Saudi Arabia is moving heavy military equipment including artillery to areas near its border with Yemen. The Sunni kingdom and its Saudis and their allies say Iran’s Shiite dominated government is behind the rise of the Houthis. The Houthis are also reportedly loyal to Yemen’s ousted former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was removed from office in 2012. The conflict risks spiralling into a proxy war with Shi’ite Iran backing the Houthis, and Saudi Arabia and the other regional Sunni Muslim monarchies backing Hadi. The Houthis have denied taking material or financial support from Tehran, but last year Yemeni, Western and Iranian sources provided details of Iranian military and financial support to the Houthis before and after their takeover of Sanaa. US officials have said that Iranian has been largely limited to funding.

The weaponry and artillery being moved by Saudi Arabia could be used for offensive or defensive purposes, however two U.S. government sources said the build-up appeared to be defensive. Once source described the size of the Saudi build-up on Yemen’s border as “significant,” and said the Saudis could be preparing air strikes to defend Hadi.

U.S. Ambassador to Yemen Matthew said, “The Saudis are just really deeply concerned about what they see as an Iranian stronghold in a failed state along their border,” But a former senior U.S. official, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said the prospects for successful external intervention in Yemen appeared slim. He said Hadi’s prospects appeared to be worsening and that for now he was “pretty well pinned down.”

Riyadh hosted top-level talks with Gulf Arab neighbours on Saturday and offered “all efforts” to preserve the Yemen’s stability and Hadi’s authority. Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal said on Monday Arab countries would take necessary measures to protect the region against “aggression” by the Houthi movement if a peaceful solution could not be found.

The United States and United Kingdom have had evacuated all its remaining personnel in Yemen, including about 100 special operations forces, because of the security situation. The end of a U.S. security presence inside the country has dealt a blow to Washington’s ability to monitor and fight al Qaeda’s Yemen affiliate.

Liberia Reports New Ebola Case

Liberia has confirmed its first new Ebola case in more than a month, resulting in a major setback as the country had hoped to be soon declared free of the deadly disease.

On Friday, government spokesman Lewis Brown disclosed, “a woman has been confirmed as an Ebola patient… This is a new case after we have gone more than 27 days without a single case. It is a setback.” The woman has been transferred to the ELWA Ebola treatment unit in the capital Monrovia. Dr Francis Kateh, acting head of the Liberia Ebola Case Management team, has disclosed that the patient does not seem to be linked to any of the people on an Ebola contact list and that she has stated that she did not travel recently to any of the neighbouring infected countries. Authorities are now considering the possibility that she had a visitor from outside Liberia who infected her or that “…she may have contracted the virus through sexual intercourse with a survivor.” Officials are now compiling a list of people who came into contact with the patient who will be monitored for symptoms. While Liberia had not reported any new cases for several weeks, health officials warned that even after areas are declared free of the deadly disease, new cases were still possible due to sexual transmission.

Earlier this month, the World Health Organization (WHO) had announced that Liberia had registered no new case of the deadly virus since 19 February. On 5 March, Liberia discharged its last confirmed Ebola patient, Beatrice Yordoldo. In the week leading up to 15 March, surveillance and early warning systems had detected 125 suspected cases of Ebola however none of them tested positive for the deadly virus. Liberia had started its 42-day countdown towards being considered Ebola-free on 4 March and would have been cleared by 15 April.

At the height of the Ebola epidemic in West Africa, Liberia was the hardest hit country and has seen more than 4,000 deaths. According to the latest figures released by the WHO, since the outbreak began in December 2013, 24,753 people in nine countries have been infected with the virus, and 10,236 have died. All but fifteen of those deaths occurred in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.

Yemen Calls for Gulf Military Intervention

23 March– Yemen’s foreign minister Riyadh Yaseen has called on Gulf Arab military intervention in Yemen to stop territorial advances by Houthi fighters opposed to President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi. In a televised interview, Yaseen said, “They’re expanding in territory, occupying airports and cities, attacking Aden with planes, detaining whom they please, threatening and gathering their forces.” Yasseen added, “We have expressed to the Gulf Cooperation Council, the United Nations as well as the international community that there should be a no-fly zone, and the use of military aircraft should be prevented at the airports controlled by the Houthis.”

The call for assistance comes as Yemen’s rebel Houthis escalated attacks against President Hadi, who fled to Aden last month after escaping house arrest at the hands of Houthis in Sanaa. Over the weekend, he made a defiant speech challenging the Houthis in his first public address since leaving Sanaa.

Rebel leader Abdel-Malik al-Houthi, who is reportedly backed by supporters of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, vowed to send fighters into the southern part of the country where Hadi has taken refuge against the rebels. In one of his customary long and heated speeches over the weekend, al-Houthi said the move is meant to target al-Qaeda and other militant groups, as well as forces loyal to Hadi in the south. He referred to President Hadi as “puppet” to international and regional powers, and called the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Qatar conspirators against Yemen.

Al-Houthi’s speech came a day after the Houthis called for a general mobilization against forces loyal to Hadi, and shortly after Houthi rebels seized the country’s third largest city of Taiz, an important station in its advance. The militia had also seized Taiz’s airport. Thousands of protestors swelled into the streets to oppose the capture of the city; the rebels dispersed them by firing into the air and beating them back with batons. The Houthis have taken control of the capital and six provinces.

Amid the unrest, terrorist groups are also gaining greater ground. Over the weekend, al-Qaeda seized the town of al-Houta amid growing violence. And on Friday, ISIS affiliates claimed responsibility for two bombs at mosques in Sana’a, killing up to 150 people. If their responsibility is verified, this marks the first large-scale actions in Yemen, and could drive Yemen further into instability.

In light of the escalating unrest, US troops evacuated al Anad air base on Sunday About 100 American troops and Special Forces units were stationed at the air base. UK Special Forces have pulled out of Yemen as well. The troops were reportedly airlifted from the capital Sana’a over the weekend. Jeff Rathke, US State Department spokesman, said in a statement: “Due to the deteriorating security situation in Yemen, the US government has temporarily relocated its remaining personnel out of Yemen.” The UK Government has not commented on the withdrawal of British troops.

The CIA and US military have carried out drone strikes against insurgents in Yemen for many years. Diplomats from the United States and several European nations fled Yemen in February amid embassy closures resulting from deteriorating security conditions.

Capture of Los Zetas Cartel’s Kingpin & Evolution of the Security Situation in Mexico

Mexican security forces arrested on March 4 the leader of Los Zetas drug cartel. This is the second important capture of a kingpin this month in a boost by President Enrique Peña Nieto’s effort to fight organized crime. Omar Treviño Morales alias “Z-42”, brother of arrested ex-Zetas leader Miguel Angel Treviño, was caught by Mexican federal police officers and soldiers in the city of Monterrey.

His capture happened just a few days after the arrest of the leader of the Knights Templar cartel called Servando Gomez who was the most wanted cartel leader in Mexico. Los Zetas cartel have been blamed for many of the atrocities carried out by Mexican drug-trafficking organizations in a wave of violence that has claimed more than 100,000 lives since 2007. Raul Benitez, a security expert at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) said: “Omar Treviño was the heir to all the Zetas who were going down.” Indeed, the cartel has been weakened by the killing of former boss Heriberto Lazcano in 2012 and the subsequent capture of Miguel Angel Treviño in 2013. The U.S., which claims that Omar Treviño Morales is responsible for numerous kidnappings and murders as well as cocaine smuggling, had offered up to $5 million for information leading to his arrest.

Among the most infamous incidents pinned on Los Zetas are an arson attack on a Monterrey Casino in 2011 that killed 52 people, the massacres of dozens of migrant workers, and the dumping of 49 decapitated bodies near Monterrey in 2012. Los Zetas cartel originally founded by army deserters, controls several Mexican states mainly located in the north and south-eastern part of the country (as presented in the map below) and are considered as one of the most powerful cartel of Mexico.

This series of arrest happen in an attempt by PRI President Peña Nieto to improving security in northern Mexico, both to improve the quality of life for residents, and to help pave the way for the entrance of new investments in oil and gas. In addition to conducting several capture of senior Zetas leaders, police forces in the state of Nuevo Leon have succeeded in drastically reducing crime rates in the city of Monterrey. However, security issues continue to be a major cause for concern in another Zetas stronghold, the state of Tamaulipas.

In the state of Nuevo Leon, the creation of a new highly professional police force unit named the Fuerza Civil, has helped reducing the number of homicides. The capture of major drug kingpins is important, but it needs to be part of a broader, locally-focused security strategy. Generally, Mexico’s murder rate is falling but more needs to be done, and particularly when considering the violence-plagued states of Guerrero, Michoacán and Tamaulipas.

Those states are wrapped in a political-military conflict between numerous illegal armed groups that favour a spiral of security deterioration. The recent advance of the armed self-defense forces has accelerated this dynamic. The risk of an escalation in violence is latent as more actors enter in the complex issue of the drug war. Besides, as stated before, the capture of drug kingpins is certainly efficient in weakening the cartels but only on a short-term period. Los Zetas cartel are not just violent because their leaders are, they follow an economic model that relies on controlling territory by adopting a violent way. Within that territory, they extract rents from other criminal actors and move only a limited amount of illegal goods via their own networks. Thus, without that territory, they have no rent. Los Zetas’ model depends on their ability to be more violent and powerful than their competitors, so they can extract this rent.

On the overall, the arrests of drug kingpins has provoked internal conflicts within the different cartels that lost control capabilities and resulted in them being splintered into smaller criminal organizations. Those smaller organizations pose a direct challenge to Mexico’s domestic security because they will be in competition for turf and network control. Therefore, in spite of those publicized arrests, is it unlikely that the security situation in Mexico and especially in the states of Guerrero, Tamaulipas and Michoacán will be improved in the short-term. There is a need to improve Mexico’s security apparatus, which involves removing the incentives that drive drugs cartels to violence.

Ebola Situation Update (18 March 2015)

In total, there have been 24,701 confirmed, probable and suspected cases of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) reported in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, with 10,194 deaths reported.

In the seven days leading up to 15 March, a total of 150 new confirmed cases of EVD were reported, compared with 116 that were reported in the previous week. Guinea reported 95 new confirmed cases, the highest weekly total for the country this year. Sierra Leone reported 55 new confirmed cases over the same period, which is the country’s lowest weekly total since late June 2014. Liberia reported no new confirmed cases of EVD for the third consecutive week.

A total of twelve districts in Guinea and neighbouring Sierra Leone reported a confirmed case during this reporting period. According to officials, all these districts lie on a “geographically contiguous arc in and around Conakry to the north and Freetown to the south.” While transmission is currently confined to this geographic corridor, the population is this region is highly mobile and there is a great deal of movement throughout the surrounding districts and countries.

Guinea

In the week leading up to 15 March, 95 confirmed cases of EVD were reported, compared with 58 that were reported in the week before.

According to World Health Organization (WHO) officials, the current transmission has been confined to an area in and around the capital city Conakry (25 confirmed cases) as well as the nearby prefectures of Boffa (3 cases), Coyah (20 cases), Dubreka (2 cases), Forecariah (42 cases), and Kindia (3 cases). 

Sierra Leone 

In the seven days leading up to 15 March, Sierra Leone reported a total of 55 confirmed cases of EVD, compared with 58 that were reported in the previous week.

Cases were reported from six northern and western districts in and around the capital city Freetown, which reported 29 new confirmed cases during this reporting period. The following neighbouring districts also reported cases: Bombali (6 cases), Kambia (4 cases), Port Loko (11 cases) and Western Rural (3 cases).

Liberia

No counties in Liberia have reported a confirmed case of EVD within the past 21 days.

The 15^th of March was day 12 since the final patient in Liberia tested negative for EVD for a second time. Forty-two days must pass before transmission can be considered to have ended and Liberia can be declared Ebola-free, however an additional period of heightened vigilance will be required in order to aid in preventing another outbreak.