MS Risk Blog

Constitutional Crisis Unfolds in Guinea-Bissau

After weeks of tensions between the country’s President and Prime Minister, a constitutional crisis has unfolded in Guinea-Bissau in the wake of President Jose Mario Vaz’ dismissal of Prime Minister Domingoes Simoes Pereira. The constitutional crisis has raised fears of a coup, with regional leaders calling on the army to stay out of the issue.

According to a presidential decree, released Thursday (13 August), Guinea-Bissau’s President Jose Mario Vaz has dismissed the government following a row with the prime minister. The decree disclosed that “the government headed by Prime Minister Domingoes Simoes Pereira has been dissolved.” The 16-member government took office in July 2014, just two months after Vaz become the country’s first elected civilian leader. The move comes after the president acknowledged a “crisis” in relations with the prime minister that were undermining the functioning of the government. In a broadcast to the nation late Wednesday, Vaz stated that “it is public knowledge that there is a crisis undermining the proper working of institutions.” He further stated that “the efforts made did not succeed in resolving difficult relations between the president and the prime minister,” adding that a government reshuffle would have been inadequate. The president disclosed that contentious issues included the appointment of a new armed force’s chief as well as corruption. Vaz and Pereira are both members of the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC).

The following day, Friday 14 August, the ruling party demanded the reinstatement of Prime Minister Domingoes Simoes Pereira. Speaking after meeting with President Jose Mario Vaz, Pereira stated, “we’ve told the president that our constitution and the party status are clear – the prime minister is the leader of the party that has won the elections.” Several senior officials from the PAIGC have disclosed that they made similar demands to the president and that they back Pereira. On Saturday, a member of the ruling PAIGC party disclosed that the party has renominated Domingoes Simoes Pereira as Prime Minister. According to party vice-president Adja Satu Camara, “we sent back Friday the proposal of our party concerning the future prime minister. It is the president of the party, Domingoes Simoes Pereira,” adding that if the country’s leader rejects the proposal, the party will pursue all available options. So far that president has not reacted to the move.

The constitutional crisis in Guinea-Bissau has prompted regional leaders to warn the army to stay out of the issue. On Sunday, West African nations warned the army to stay out of Guinea-Bissau’s constitutional crisis, stating that only dialogue would end the standoff between the president and the premier, whom he dismissed earlier in the week. Senegal’s President Macky Sall, who heads the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which groups fifteen countries, appealed for talks between the two men to end weeks of tension. In a statement, he urged them “to continue to explore peaceful ways of resolving the impasse and the armed forces to respect their undertakings to stay out of politics.” The call comes just days after the UN Security Council on Friday discussed the unfolding crisis in Guinea-Bissau, stressing that security forces must stay out of it. In a unanimous statement, the 15-member UN Security Council urged all sides to “resolve the ongoing political dispute in the interest of peace in Guinea-Bissau,” adding that Council members “underscored the importance of non-interference of security forces in the political situation.” The Council has indicated that it will continue to monitor the situation closely.

Demonstrators in Ecuador Call for Nationwide Strike

In Ecuador demonstrators have called for a nationwide strike to protest moves made by President Rafael Correa to secure a fourth term in office and increase taxation. In response, Correa has called out his own supporters and hinted darkly that a coup attempt organised by his political rivals may be in the offing.

In office since 2007, Correa is not presently able to stand for re-election in 2017. He has, however, lent his support to a constitutional reform package that would would enable him to hold office indefinitely. This, in addition to an economic slowdown brought about by declining crude oil prices has hit the South American country hard and caused widespread discontent. Nevertheless, Correa remains a relatively popular figure, especially amongst the nation’s poor. Over the last eight years, Correa has been publicly feted for re-investing the country’s oil wealth into infrastructure projects like new roads, schools and hospitals, and for dramatically reducing poverty. As recently as 2013, he was re-elected with a large majority after embracing the ideals of Venezuelan-style 21st Century Socialism. A divisive figure, Correa continues to maintain that his fiscal reforms will promote more effective wealth distribution throughout the country.

On Thursday, union leaders, workers, business owners and indigenous Ecuadorians blocked roads to the capital Quito, united by their opposition to Correa but motivated by often conflicting principles. From the business sector, protestors demonstrated against the introduction of import tariffs and a 75% tax on capital gains from inheritances and real estate sales. At the same time, union leaders were angered by the introduction of a labour code that they claim would criminalise dissent by removing freedoms of protest and association. Indigenous protesters, who have been amongst the most vocal critics of Correa, blocked roads in six of Ecuador’s twenty four provinces, including the Pan-American Highway near the Cotopaxi volcano, a popular tourist attraction. According to Carlos Perez, a protest leader and one of the many indigenous Ecuadoreans who journeyed 800 kilometres to Quito to take part in the demonstrations said “We have declared an uprising. For us, Correa has fallen from grace. He doesn’t represent us anymore…We don’t want indefinite reelection because we’re going to end up in a dictatorship.”

Police have been deployed in key cities throughout Ecuador, including 5,000 officers in Quito, but so far there have been no reports of serious violence breaking out. By and large, the protests have not succeeded in galvanising the kind of grass root support necessary to force Correa from office. Despite the call for a nationwide strike, education, transport and health services were all functioning normally in the country’s largest cities. On Twitter, Correa called the strike a failure, saying “Situation normal in all major cities.”

Jihadist Group Claims Responsibility for Hotel Attack in Central Mali

On Tuesday (11 August), last week’s deadly hostage drama, which killed 13 people including five UN workers, was claimed by fighters linked to Algerian jihadi leader Mokhtar Belmokhtar. The militant group also claimed responsibility for a roadside bombing that occurred Monday.

A radical, who is associated with militant Malian Islamic leader Amadou Koufa, stated that he gave his “blessing” for the attack on the Byblos Hotel in the central Malian town of Sevare. Koufa has ties to Belmokhtar, a former head of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) who leads Al-Murabitoun. According to Souleymane Mohamed Kennen, the group also claimed responsibility for the killing of three Malian soldiers on Monday, when their vehicle hit an improvised explosive device close to Diabozo, which is located near Sevare. While the US had reported that it has targeted Belmokhtar in an airstrike in the Libyan desert in June, AQIM has denied reports that its former leader had been killed.

The claim of responsibility comes just a day after investigators disclosed that they have found phone numbers and addresses on the bodies of the “terrorists” killed in the Sevare hotel, which suggested that they were affiliated with the Macina Liberation Front (FLM), which is a new Islamic extremist group drawn from the Fulani people of central Mali. According to one investigator, “at this stage, there is no formal proof that it was the Macina Liberation Front, but strong suspicions point to this group that has been seeking notoriety at all costs.” Officials are reporting that this new extremist group is drawn from the Fulani people of central Mali and that it has links to Ansar Dine.

Meanwhile on Thursday (13 August), a policeman and a civilian were wounded when gunmen opened fire on a police outpost in the capital city in an attack that a Malian government minister has insisted is an “isolated act.” According to Interior minister Sada Samake, the attackers arrived at a busy bus station in a taxi before opening fore in the police post, injuring two people. The minister confirmed that officials “…have opened an investigation” into what he called an “isolated act.”

Tanker Boarded by Pirates in Malaysian Waters

A Singapore-registered tanker sailing in Malaysian waters has been boarded by pirates and robbed of its marine fuel, Malaysian coast guard officials have confirmed. Port authorities lost contact with the ship late on 8 August, several hours after it had set sail from the Indonesian city of Tanjung Pinang. The ship, which was en route to the Malaysian island of Langkawi, was carrying a crew of ten and 3,500 tonnes of marine fuel when it was attacked. Two of the crew members sustained injuries after the vessel was boarded and they have since been hospitalised.

According to information from the International Chamber of Commerce’s International Maritime Bureau (IMB), over the past six months pirate attacks in Southeast Asia are the highest that they have been in twelve years. By contrast, there have been no reported incidents of piracy off the coast of Somalia, or in the Red Sea, Arabian Sea or in the Gulf of Aden. If this trend continues, 2015 could be the first year since 2006 that Somali pirates were prevented from claiming any prizes.

Worldwide, the IMB reported a total of 134 pirate attacks from January to June this year, an increase of 18 attacks over the same period last year but still below 2011’s record breaking 266. It is not, however, the relative increase in the frequency of attacks that is the most striking feature of the IMB data – it is the overall change in their geographic distribution. Indonesia, for instance, recorded 54 attacks over the reporting period, the highest number since 2010, while Vietnam and Bangladesh suffered 13 and 11 respectively. The Strait of Malacca, a notorious hotspot for piracy, has also seen an uptick in pirate activity.

Various factors have been attributed to the decline in Somali piracy – amongst them the increase in naval patrols and the “target hardening” efforts of shipowners”, who have gone to considerable lengths to make their vessels harder to board, including the use of armed guards. Nevertheless, shipowners’ have been warned against becoming complacent. While it is certainly unusual for there to have been no incidents of piracy reported over the first six months of the year, Michael Howlett, deputy director of the IMB said that the threat had not vanished. “We still advise masters to be aware. [The pirates] still have the capacity [to launch attacks]. It only takes one successful attack for this business model to be relaunched,” he said.

US Consulate Targeted in Turkey

On Monday (10 August), the United States Consulate in Istanbul was targeted by two women, with at least nine people killed in a series of separate attacks, which has raised fears that Ankara’s decision to launch a crackdown on the Islamic State (IS) group as well as Kurdish and far-left militants will trigger more violence on Turkish soil.

At 1AM local time, a car carrying explosives struck a police station in Istanbul’s Sultanbeyli neighbourhood. Officials have reported that three policemen and seven bystanders were wounded in the incident, and that the attacker was killed. Less than six hours later, two gunmen opened fire on the same police station, setting off a gunfight, which resulted in the deaths of two attackers and one police officer. There was no claim of responsibility for either attack and so far, IS has not issued any statements about the police station assaults.

At 7AM on Monday, two women targeted the US Consulate in the Sariyer district. According to Turkey’s state-run Anadolu news agency, there were no casualties, and one of the two women was captured. The news agency has reported that authorities have identified her as Hatice Asik, 42, of the Revolutionary People’s Liberation Party-Front (DHKP-C). Turkey’s foreign ministry has condemned the attack, stating that security at US diplomatic missions were being tightened. On the ground sources have reported that police with automatic rifles cordoned off streets around the US consulate. Two years ago, the DHKP-C, which is designated a terrorist group by both Turkey and the US, killed a Turkish security guard and wounded several others in a suicide attack that targeted the US Embassy in Ankara. Monday’s attack came a day after the US sent six F-16 fighter jets and about 300 personnel to Incirlik Air Base in Turkey, as part of coalition efforts to fight IS. Late on Monday, the DHKP-C claimed on its website that one of its female militants carried out the attack.

Elsewhere in Turkey on Monday, a roadside bombing in southeastern Sirnak province killed four policemen and wounded another. One soldier was killed when a military helicopter drew fire in the province in an attack that officials have blamed on the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

Since launching strikes on IS fighters in Syria and PKK militants in northern Iraq, Turkey, which is a NATO member, has been in a heightened state of alert. Authorities in the country have also rounded up hundreds of suspected militants.