MS Risk Blog

Tensions Ease Between North and South Korea

High level negotiations between Seoul and Pyongyang have eased tensions on the Korean Peninsula, where the possibility of a military clash has loomed large since a rare exchange of fire across the border late last week.

In recent weeks relations between the two states have became increasingly hostile. Earlier this month, two members of a South Korean border patrol were seriously injured in a mine blast, an incident described by Seoul as a cowardly act of provocation which merited “harsh” retaliation. Pyongyang was similarly incensed by the commencement of joint military exercises between South Korea and the US – an annual event which the North believes is preparation for war and the eventual occupation of their capital.

These exercises were temporarily suspended after an exchange of artillery fire across the border on Thursday 20 August. According to South Korea’s defence ministry, shortly before 4pm local time, a single North Korean artillery shell was fired across the border. Minutes later, this was followed by several more shells which fell harmlessly into the Demilitarised Zone (DMZ). In retaliation, South Korea fired dozens of artillery rounds back across the border while placing its troops on maximum alert and ordering the residents of Yeoncheon county to evacuate their homes. So far no one from either side of the border is reported to have been injured in this exchange of fire.

After several troubling days, the standoff ended earlier today when an agreement was reached by negotiators in Panmunjom, an abandoned village north of the Military Demarcation Line where the Korean Armistice Agreement was signed in 1953. Talks began on Saturday evening after Seoul passed a deadline imposed by Pyongyang to end propaganda broadcasts across the border or face the possibility of military action. The South eventually agreed to this demand and in turn, the North agreed to voice its regret over the injuries sustained by the two South Korean soldiers. Former South Korean diplomat and current UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has congratulated both sides for speedily resolving the crisis before it was allowed to escalate and expressed the hope that the two countries could use this decision as a springboard to solve other problems which affect the troubled peninsula.

Second in Command IS Jihadist Killed in US Airstrike in Iraq

The White House on Saturday reported that the second-in-command of the Islamic State jihadist group has been killed in a US airstrike in northern Iraq.

The National Security Council has identified the slain militant as Fadhil Ahmad al-Hayali, also known as Haji Mutaz, adding that he was IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s senior deputy. According to US forces, Hayali was killed, along with an IS “media operative” known as Abu Abdullah, on 18 August in a strict that targeted a vehicle near the city of Mosul. The White House has described Hayali as a member of IS’ ruling council, adding that he was “a primary coordinator for moving large amounts of weapons, explosives, vehicles and people between Iraq and Syria.” The White House further disclosed that Hayali “…supported ISIL operations in both countries and was in charge of ISIL operations in Iraq, where he was instrumental in planning operations over the past two years, including the ISIL offensive in Mosul in June 2014.” Like many senior Iraqi jihadists, prior to joining IS, Hayali had been a member of al-Qaeda’s Iraqi faction, with sources indicated that he was reportedly a former Iraqi officer from the era of Saddam Hussein.

This however is not the first time that US officials have announced Hayali’s death. In December, while speaking to reporters, US defense officials disclosed that Hayali was one of several senior figures who was killed in coalition strikes. At the time, officials provided another of his pseudonyms, Abu Muslim al-Turkmani.

New Allegations of Misconduct for Peacekeeping Mission in Central African Republic

UN officials have received new allegations that peacekeepers operating in the CAR raped three young women.

Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, UN spokeswoman Vannina Maestracci disclosed, “these new allegations concern a report that three young females were raped by three members of a MINUSCA military contingent,” adding that one of the alleged victims is a minor. The rapes allegedly took place in the town of Bambari, located northeast of the capital Bangui, in recent weeks, with sources disclosing that the families of the victims notified the UN mission on 12 August. While Maestracci declined to name the nationality of the accused troops, sources have indicated that they were from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

The new allegations come a week after UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon dismissed the head of the UN’s mission in the country, declaring “enough is enough” after a string of accusations of child sex and other misconduct carried out by the troops. The MINUSCA force, which took over from an African Union (AU) mission nearly a year ago, has been plagued by a series of allegations involving its peacekeeping forces, with sources disclosing that there have been at least 61 claims of misconduct against them, twelve of which involve sexual abuse. UN officials have disclosed that Burundi and Morocco are also investigating allegations of sexual abuse against their soldiers in MINUSCA. Meanwhile UN Peacekeeping officials have requested an urgent meeting with officials from the DRC in order to discuss the allegations. They have given them ten days in order to decide whether to investigate.

These new allegations also come just weeks before United States President Barack Obama is due to host a summit in New York on UN peacekeeping, in a bid to try to shore up missions. This latest sexual abuse scandal however is likely to cast a shadow over the event, which will be held on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly meeting. On Tuesday, in its first statement on the matter, the UN Security Council expressed outrage and anger over the mounting allegations, adding that troop-contributing countries must investigate the scandals. Under UN rules, it is up to member states to investigate and prosecute their soldiers who face accusations of misconduct while serving under the UN flag. Sources have disclosed that last week, Secretary General Ban told a special Security Council meeting that too many countries are slow in responding to accusations against their soldiers and that in some cases they do not respond at all.

In June, Ban appointed a review panel, which is led by former Canadian Supreme Court justice Marie Deschamps, in order to examine how the UN handled separate allegations that French and African troops sexually abused children in the CAR beginning in late 2013. Those findings are expected in the coming months.

El Salvador’s Murder Rate on the Rise

In a country already convulsed by violence, El Salvador’s murder rate has begun to increase dramatically, with 125 murders reported since Sunday, August 16. National Police Chief Mauricio Ramirez has confirmed that 40 people were killed on Sunday, 42 on Monday and 43 on Tuesday. It is believed that the majority of these deaths were gang related. These figures appear to be in keeping with the murder rates recorded over the first five months of the year, which saw a 50% increase in violent deaths (2192 in total) during the same period last year.

While El Salvador has long been plagued by violence, the levels which it is now being forced to endure have not been seen since the civil war in the 1980s. Murder rates have escalated rapidly and the government has struggled to rein in the powerful street gangs which control entire neighbourhoods in many of the Central American country’s towns and cities. In attempting to explain this trend, authorities say that gang leaders are using violence as a means of pressuring the government into a weakened negotiating position. “They want to exert some pressure and for the government to grant some of the things they are asking for,” said Justice and Public Safety Minister Benito Lara. This year alone, around 50 soldiers and police officers were killed by gang violence, despite the launch of a bold new offensive into the neighbourhoods were the gangs are known to operate.

At the centre of this conflict are the principal criminal groups that hold sway in El Salvador; Mara Salvatrucha, otherwise known as MS-13, and two independent factions of Barrio 18. They emerged after the 1992 peace agreement brought an end to the war between the US backed military and leftist guerrillas and their presence can be felt throughout the country, as drug dealers and extortionists; a damning indictment of successive failed attempts by police to curb the gangs’ growth and operational effectiveness.

Fighting Erupts in Northern Mali

UN peacekeepers have indicated that they will establish a 20-kilometer “security zone” around the town of Kidal after fighting erupted over the weekend, breaking a ceasefire established in the northern region of the country.

The UN Peacekeeping mission (MINUSMA) has indicated that they are declaring a security zone around Kidal “to avoid any possible extension of the fighting that could affect the population of the town.” The zone will take effect as of 0800 GMT Tuesday and will “remain until further notice.” According to the mission, any movement within the zone by pro-government Tuareg forces or their allies “will be deemed to constitute an imminent danger to the security of the population of the town of Kidal,” stressing that the peacekeeping force will “act in accordance with its mandate” in the event of any violation.

The move follows deadly clashes between a pro-government group and Tuareg rebels. According to a regional security source, the fighting erupted Monday at Agnefis, about 120 kilometres (74 miles) south of the strategic town of Kidal, “killing several people.” In a statement, MINUSMA officials disclosed that it was a “blatant violation” of the recently agreed Mali peace deal, known as the Algiers Accord, adding “the international community, as well as the population, is concerned by the increasing number of these violations, which could hinder the progress made towards a stable and lasting peace in Mali.” While a MINUSMA security source has indicated that the clashes left “at least 10 dead and many injured,” Fahad Ag Almahmoud, a top official from the pro-government Imghad Tuareg group disclosed that 15 people were killed, including those of some military leaders from the main Tuareg rebel group Coordination of Movements for Azawad (CMA). On Monday afternoon, Ag Almahmoud stated that “the situation has stabilized. The fighting has temporarily stopped.” Security sources however have indicated that they are concerned about the eruption of clashes, particularly as both sides have used heavy weaponry. One source indicated that during Mali’s rainy season, many of the roads become impassable in the north and groups end up fighting each other for control of roads used for trafficking. MINUSMA has indicated that it will carry out investigations to determine responsibility for the ceasefire violation, adding that any findings will be forwarded to the UN Security Council.