MS Risk Blog

Turkey Launches Air Strikes in Northern Iraq

Turkish jets launched their heaviest assault on Kurdish militants in northern Iraq overnight since air strikes were launched last week. The latest strikes come just hours after Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan stated that a peace process had become impossible.

A statement released by Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu’s office indicated that the strikes hit Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) targets, including shelters, depots and caves in six areas. A source has reported that this was the largest assault since the campaign began. Iraq has condemned the air strikes, stating that they are a “dangerous escalation and an assault on Iraqi sovereignty.” It further indicated that it was committed to ensuring that militant attacks on Turkey were not carried out from within its territory.

Last Friday, Turkey launched near-simultaneous strikes against PKK camps in Iraq and against Islamic State (IS) fighters in neighbouring Syria. At the time, the country’s prime minister indicated that the strikes were a “synchronized fight against terror.” The strikes came just days after the NATO member opened up its air base to the US-led coalition against IS, in a move that effectively see’s Turkey join the front-line in the battle against the jihadist group after years of reluctance. However Turkey’s air strikes on the PKK have so far been far heavier than those against IS, which have fuelled suspicions that its real agenda is keeping Kurdish political and territorial ambitions in check. This has been denied by the Turkish government, who has made it clear that its operations against IS militants in Syria will not include air cover for Syrian Kurdish fighters who are also battling the jihadists. The Turkish government has indicated that the air strikes against the PKK are in response to increased militant violence in recent weeks, including a series of targeted killings of police officers and soldiers blamed on the Kurdish militant group. On Tuesday, Turkish fighter jets bombed PKK targets in the southeastern Turkish province of Sirnak, which borders Iraq. The bombings came after an attack on a group of gendarmes.

Malaysian PM Reshuffles Cabinet Amidst Corruption Scandal

Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak has reshuffled his cabinet amid an ongoing corruption scandal that continues to threaten the stability of his administration. On Tuesday this week Najib dismissed his Attorney General, Abdul Gani Patil, who had been investigating the Malaysian leader over embezzlement allegations, along with deputy PM Muhyiddin Yassin, who had called on the premier to answer the charges laid against him. Four other Malaysian lawmakers have also been sacked in what Najib’s critics have described as a purge designed to prevent the premier’s alleged involvement in the scandal from being thoroughly investigated.

On 13 July, Malaysian police said that an investigation had been launched into the release of confidential documents to the Sarawak Report and the Wall Street Journal, which are reported to contain proof of how millions of dollars were siphoned into the PM’s private accounts from a variety of banks, government agencies and other companies connected to 1 Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) – a state investment fund chaired by Najib. These reports claim that five deposits were made in Najib’s accounts, the two largest of which – worth $681 million collectively – occurred during Malaysia’s 2013 election campaign. A special task force has been convened to investigate the case; so far, six of Najib’s bank accounts have been frozen and seventeen more are under investigation.

While Najib does not deny ownership of the accounts or that money was deposited in them, he utterly rejects the allegations of graft and corruption made by his critics and the Wall Street Journal, against whom he is considering taking legal action. In a televised address that took place after the reshuffle, Najib said: “I can accept differences in opinion and criticisms as part of the decision-making process, but these differences in opinion should not be made in an open forum that can affect the public perception of the government and the country.” Representatives for 1MDB have also rejected claims there was anything untoward in their financial dealings with the PM.

While professing his innocence of any wrongdoing, Najib has accused former Malaysian PM Mahathir Mohamad of masterminding an act of “political sabotage” which he claims is an attempt to bring down the government and remove him from power. Certainly, Mahathir has been instrumental in undercutting public confidence in Najib, whose approval ratings have dropped sharply over the past year, but there has otherwise been no conclusive evidence of any such conspiracy.

As the investigation progresses, questions continue to be asked about the future of Malaysia’s leadership. If a smoking gun were found which directly implicated Najib in an embezzlement scam, it seems likely that the United Malay’s National Organization (UMNO) party would drop him as a means of preserving their 58-year long rule. If not, he may be able to weather the storm, provided that the reshuffle hasn’t exhausted his supply of political goodwill within the party.

Piracy in Southeast Asia on the Rise

According to the latest data released by the International Maritime Bureau’s (IMB) Piracy Reporting Centre on Wednesday, pirates operating in Southeast Asia continue to hijack a coastal tanker on average once every two weeks in a bid to steal their cargo fuel.

Between January and June of this year, a total of 134 incidents of piracy and armed robbery globally were reported to the centre, an increase from the 116 that were reported during the same period last year. So far this year, 250 crewmembers have been taken hostage, with one fatality and nine injuries. Meanwhile eleven of the 13 hijackings that have been reported in the first half of this year occurred in waters in Southeast Asia. According to IMB director Pottengal Mukundan, “the serious attacks are the hijackings of the tankers in Southeast Asia and this year there has been a higher number in the first two quarters of this year than in the first two quarters of 2014.”

The IMB has reported that overall, attacks in Southeast Asia are greater in number than those of all the other regions combined. Furthermore, one-third of all incidents in that region occurred off the coast of Indonesia, however the IMB has noted that “the majority of these related to low-level opportunistic theft from vessels.” According to IMB figures, in the first half of 2015, there were 54 actual or attempted attacks that occurred in or near Indonesian waters, compared to 47 that were reported during the same period last year. Waters off Vietnam also saw an increase in pirate activity. In the first half of last year, there was only one incident reported in the area, however this year, there have already been 11 incidents reported. The IMB also reported a significant increase in armed robber attacks on vessels in Bangladesh, particularly in Chittagong. In the second quarter of this year, there were 10 incidents reported compared to only one that was reported in the first three months of 2015.

Ukraine Situation Update (24 July 2015)

Despite the Minsk II ceasefire agreement officially still being in full effect since mid-February, eastern Ukraine has had to cope with a new wave of violence that started in June and which increased in intensity in July, 2015. During the last week of June the foreign ministers of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany met in an effort to revive high-end diplomatic efforts to bring an end to the conflict between the governmental forces and the pro-Russian militants in eastern Ukraine. A statement released by the French foreign minister at the end of the meeting disclosed that the ministers agreed that a quick de-escalation of hostilities is imperative to allow the negotiation of a viable peace deal that would arrange a series of political, security, humanitarian and economic issues that arose with the creation of the rebel regions in eastern Ukraine.

However during July it was proved that the meeting did not succeed in decreasing the tensions between the two sides in Ukraine. The new violations were confirmed from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) that warned on July 3 that a growing presence of heavy weaponry on the government controlled side of Donbass territory put governmental forces in violation of the terms of the demarcation line. It also noted the augmented movement and use of military equipment by the Ukrainian forces. According to OSCE Deputy Chief Monitor, Alexander Hug, the same processes were noted in the self-proclaimed People’s Republic of Donetsk, where there was an increase in military equipment around Komsomolskoe. OSCE also reported that it had documented shelling on the buffer-zone areas in eastern Ukraine.

However, the biggest part of the hostilities are taking place in Donetsk, where between July 11 and 17 six people died as a result of hostilities, and 13 people were wounded, among them 11 civilians and two soldiers. In addition to that, six people were reported missing and illegally detained during the same period. Donetsk’s ombudswoman, Darya Morozova, reported that the number of people detained by the Ukrainian side has reached 1,500. She added that while prisoner exchanges have been effected between Ukraine and the rebel forces of Donetsk and Lugansk peoples republics, Kiev has refused to include many of the political as well as military prisoners it is holding. The tension between the two sides intensified further since the new wave of violence in Donetsk resulted in civilians deaths and the destruction of the city’s infrastructure. The National Defence and Security Council of Ukraine said that the pro-Russian militants has concentrated heavy weaponry in three major points around Donetsk: in the village of Spartak, at the now-destroyed Donetsk airport, and in the Kievskiy district of the city. According to the Council the separatists used these points to launch heavy shelling of both Ukrainian positions and residential areas on July 19. The shelling resulted in the deaths of four civilians —including a 9-year-old girl— and four others were injured in Ukraine-controlled territory. Additionally, the Ukrainian military reported that in the last 24 hours one Ukrainian soldier has been killed and seven others have been wounded. Apart from the deaths, the shelling caused the destruction of at least four residential blocks in the city of Donetsk. The separatist group, the self-described Donetsk People’s Republic, confirmed that 19 buildings were damaged including a hospital. Further destruction had been caused on July 18 when another person died and three were injured in a massive fire in the central part of the city, without the official causes of the fire being disclosed. On July 19 and after the news of new shelling and the destruction in Donetsk, Eduard Basurin, a spokesman for the Donetsk People’s Republic, said the Republic had agreed to withdraw 100-millimeter weapons to locations 3 kilometres from the front line. The media quoted Basurin saying that the decisions was dictated under the ‘’unswerving desire and the will to establish peace in the Donbass’’.

At the same time, the first week of July, a Ukrainian group that supports the Ukrainian government published a video captured by drone aircraft and it was reported that it shows a Russian military encampment in eastern Ukraine. There have been many claims concerning the Russian army’s involvement in eastern Ukraine however Russia has denied any direct involvement. If the video is proved to be legit it would be the first tangible proof of Russian army’s involvement in eastern Ukraine fighting along the pro-Russian militants. The video was posted on YouTube by Dnipro-1, a volunteer defence force. It included English subtitles and claims the encampment is in the village of Solncevo, in Ukraine’s Donetsk region. The video points out T-72 tanks, construction equipment and large tents, raising questions about whether a headquarters has been established for command and control. However. the authenticity of the video is still under doubt and there have not been any official commends regarding the footage.

On top of these incidents, the Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, said that the threat of criminal violence has ‘’significantly risen’’ in Ukraine, describing the country awash with trafficked weapons. The crisis enables criminal to thrive and benefit from the instability. He said weapons were being trafficked from the conflict zone. With police resources focused on the east, “there will be an increase in grievous and especially life-threatening crimes” in other parts of Ukraine. Poroshenko and the government hope a new police force, which was trained by U.S. and Canadian forces, will help combat widespread corruption in Ukraine, which is on the brink of bankruptcy after years of economic mismanagement.

Violent incidents were reported in western Ukraine opening a new security crisis for the Ukrainian President. On July 11, two fighters of Ukraine’s Right Sector far-right paramilitary group were killed and four wounded in a shootout in Ukraine’s western town of Mukachevo. Earlier on in the day, Ukrainian media reported that one person was killed and nine injured in Mukachevo, after some unidentified people seized a local sport complex and exchanged gunfire with police. Anton Herashchenko, an adviser to the Ukrainian interior minister, said that three attackers were killed and three policemen and four civilians were injured in Mukachevo. The mayor of Mukachevo later added that a total of 10 people were injured during the shootout, including five civilians and five members of law enforcement agencies. Alexander Sachko, the head of the Right Sector group in the Zakarpattia region confirmed that the group’s members were involved in the incident and said that the local police opened fire on them without warning.

In the meantime, Kiev has also to handle protests taking place in the capital with the people protesting high housing and public utilities prices, which have skyrocketed 88 percent since last year worsening an already difficult period for the Ukrainian people. Utility rates, including water and heating prices, have grown three-fold in Ukraine due to a rise in the price of gas since April 1, 2015. Electricity prices are being increased in accordance with a five-stage program, due to be completed by March 1, 2017. Amid the tension, Kiev has suspended Russian gas purchases after a breakdown in talks aimed at keeping supplies running for three to six months. It will be the second time in less than a year that Russian fuel supplies have stopped running to Ukraine. Moscow hiked prices after Kremlin-backed leader Viktor Yanukovych was ousted in February 2014.

In another wave of protests, about 1,000 Ukrainian pro-government fighters and far-right supporters have marched through the centre of the Ukrainian capital burning tyres and wearing balaclavas and demanding that the government ends the ceasefire accord and declare war on pro-Russian rebels in the east. Many in the rally were from volunteer battalions and were dressed in their battle fatigues. They said they had returned from fighting Russian forces and demanded an end to all diplomatic relations with Russia.

To the present the crisis in eastern Ukraine has resulted in over 6,400 people been killed since the start of Kiev’s “anti-terror operation” and the seizure of large parts in eastern Ukraine by the rebels. A total of 1.35 million Ukrainians are now designated as internally displaced persons, according to UN estimates. Five months after the Minsk II ceasefire accord that was destined to be the base for a viable and peaceful solution in Ukraine, it seems that peace is as far away as ever.

Suicide Attack in Northwestern Afghanistan

A suicide attack has torn through a crowded market place in Faryab, a province in northwestern Afghanistan, killing more than two dozen people and injuring many more. Initial reports of the attack, which took place in the Almar district, have so far been unable to pinpoint the precise number of casualties, with various Afghan officials placing the number of fatalities between 15 and 25 and the number of injured between 32 and 38. At the moment of going to press it is believed that all of the casualties were civilians except for one soldier and two police officers.

According to Naqibullah Fayeq, a provincial parliamentarian, the bomber – who was riding a motorcycle at the time – detonated his explosive when security forces stationed in the market stopped him to check his identity papers. The attack occurred at 11am local time on a weekly shopping day when the market was crowded with people. Deputy provincial police chief Baryalai Basharyar said that the “target of the attacker was military forces that were present in the area but the majority of the victims were innocent civilians.” So devastating was the explosion that Faryab’s one small provincial hospital and two clinics were rapidly overwhelmed, necessitating the transfer of many victims to hospitals in Balkh and other nearby provinces.

While previous years have seen the Taliban mount annual attacks on provinces to the south and east of the country, the militant group has in recent weeks launched a series of increasingly daring attacks in the north. In late June, Taliban militants captured the Chandara district in the northeast province of Kunduz after a protracted gun battle with Afghan security forces. While security forces were able to regain control of Chardara in a counter-offensive shortly thereafter, reports began to emerge that the militants were planning to push closer to the centre of the province. Also in June, Taliban militants snatched control of Yamgan district in Badakhshan Province away from Afghan security forces. These strategic victories have caught the Afghan government off guard and it has responded by re-arming militia groups to assist the regular soldiers defend threatened geographies.

So far, this and other initiatives have not succeeded in substantially reducing the Taliban’s capacity for insurgency. They continue to be active throughout Faryab where they control many important transport corridors to neighbouring provinces. In the weeks to come, Afghan vice president Abdul Rashid Dostum – who has been overseeing military operations in the area from his home province of Jowzjan – is set to lead a high-ranking delegation to Faryab in an attempt to resolve some of the issues that have contributed to the deteriorating security situation in the north. Should this prove successful, the Taliban’s territorial ambitions in the north might be thwarted long enough for the Afghan military to regroup and launch a counter-offensive, reclaiming territory lost during the spring/summer fighting season.