MS Risk Blog

Iran Signs Historic Nuclear Agreement with World Powers

On Tuesday, major powers reached an agreement with Tehran aimed at ensuring that the country does not obtain a nuclear bomb and which will also open up the country’s stricken economy.

The agreement, which was reached on day 18 of marathon talks in Vienna, is aimed at ending a 13-year standoff over Iran’s nuclear ambitions after repeated diplomatic failures and threats of military action. Both Iran and the European Union have hailed the agreement as a new chapter of hope for the world. At the start of a final meeting to formally sign off on the accord, EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini stated, “I think this is a sign of hope for the entire world and we all know this is very much needed in this time,” adding, “it is a decision that can open the way to a new chapter in international elations and show that diplomacy, coordination, cooperation can over come decades of tensions and confrontation.” Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif stated that the agreement is a “historic moment,” noting, “we are reaching an agreement that is not perfect for anybody but it is what we could accomplish and it is an important achievement for all of us.” The agreement effectively places strict limits on Iran’s nuclear activities for at least a decade and calls for stringent UN oversight, with world powers hoping that this will make any attempts to make an atomic bomb virtually impossible. In return, international sanctions will be lifted and billions of dollars in frozen assets will be unblocked. The agreement, which was built on a framework in April is US President Barack Obama’s crowning foreign policy achievement and comes six years after he told Iran’s leaders that if they “unclench their fist, they will find an extended hand from us.” The agreement may also lead to further cooperation between Washington and Tehran.

The head of the UN atomic watchdog announced Tuesday that he has signed with Iran a “roadmap” for probing suspected efforts to develop nuclear weapons, a key part of an overall accord with major powers. Ahead of the expected announcement of the historic agreement with major powers, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Yukya Amano stated that he “…just signed the roadmap between the Islamic republic of Iran and the IAEA for the clarification of past and present outstanding issues regarding Iran’s nuclear programme,” adding that he aims to issue a report on the watchdog’s investigation by 15 December. According to Amano, the roadmap “sets out a clear sequence of activities over the coming months, including the provision by Iran of explanations regarding outstanding issues. It provides for technical expert meetings, technical measures and discussions, as well as a separate arrangement regarding the issue of (Iranian military base) Parchin,” adding “this should enable me to issue a report setting out the Agency’s final assessment of possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear programme, for the action of the IAEA board of Governors, by 15 December 2015.” The wider accord between six major powers and Iran is expected to be announced in Vienna later on Tuesday.

Mexican Officials Launch Search for Fugitive Drug Kingpin

Mexican officials are searching for Joaquin Guzman, the fugitive drug kingpin who escaped from Mexico’s toughest prison, Altiplano, along a 1.5 kilometre long tunnel some 90 kilometres west of Mexico City. Known as “El Chapo” (Shorty) for his diminutive stature, Guzman is the head of the Sinaloa cartel, an organised criminal syndicate based in the city of Culiacán, Sinaloa. In recent years, it has smuggled billions of dollars of marijuana, cocaine and methamphetamine into the United States and has fought numerous bloody battles for pre-eminence with other Mexican cartels. Since the arrest of Osiel Cárdenas of the Gulf Cartel in 2003, Guzman is considered by US authorities to be the most powerful drug trafficker in the world.

In a statement issued by Mexico’s National Security Commission, Guzman – who had been in detention since February 2014 – was last seen by prison officials entering the shower area of his cell at 8.52 pm local time on Saturday. When his cell was subsequently investigated, a hole ten metres deep was found in the floor of the shower area. This led down to a 1.5 kilometre long tunnel which appears to have been professionally excavated. Police found a motorcycle mounted on rails that is thought to have been used to remove dirt as the tunnel was being dug as well as equipment for pumping in fresh air. The tunnel led to an abandoned house which enabled Guzman to resurface and complete his getaway unseen. Locals claim that this property was purchased by outsiders almost a year ago and that construction work has been going on ever since it was taken off the market.

Mexico’s Federal Attorney General’s Office has announced that its organised crime unit is currently in the process of interviewing thirty prison employees, to determine whether or not Guzman’s escape was made possible by an insider. Given that he was able to successfully bribe his way out of prison in 2001, speculation that his jailbreak was aided and abetted by prison authorities has been widely debated. Adding his voice to those who believe the escape was an “inside job” is Mexico’s Interior Minister Angel Osorio Chong, who has fired Altiplano’s prison director and the head of the national penitentiary system in an attempt “to facilitate” the investigation.

In a gesture of solidarity, US Attorney General Loretta Lynch has announced that “The US government stands ready to work with our Mexican partners to provide any assistance that may help support his swift recapture.” However, Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto has expressed his confidence in the police’s ability to hunt down the escapee, saying in an interview that they possess the “strength and determination to recapture this criminal.” A 60 million peso (US$3.8 million) reward for information leading to Guzman’s capture has been offered.

IS Claims Responsibility for Consulate Bombing in Egypt

The Islamic State (IS) group has claimed responsibility for a car bomb attack that targeted the Italian consulate in central Cairo on Saturday. The attack has demonstrated a further escalation of violence, which suggests that militants may be opening a new front against foreigners in Egypt.

According to Egypt’s health ministry, at least one person was killed after an explosion that targeted the Italian consulate in the centre of Cairo. Security officials in the area reported Saturday that the force of the blast, which officials have indicated was caused by a car bomb, shook the building in the downtown area of the country’s capital city. A spokesman for the health ministry confirmed that one person was killed and ten others were wounded, including two policemen.

Witnesses near the area reported that the explosion caused widespread damage to the building, with a security source disclosing that preliminary investigations have indicated that the attackers placed a bomb underneath a car and remotely detonated it. While the consulate was closed at the time of the attack, the building is located at one of the busiest intersections in Cairo, a major road that connects Ramsis Square to the heart of the city.

Just hours after the attack, IS militants claimed responsibility. In a statement that was carried on a jihadist website, the group indicated “through God’s blessing, Islamic State soldiers were able to detonate a parked car bomb carrying 450 kg of explosive material on the headquarters of the Italian consulate in central Cairo.” The statement further warned “we recommend that Muslims stay clear of these security dens because they are legitimate targets for the mujahedeen’s strikes.”

Until now, IS supporters in Egypt had targeted security forces in the country, however the militant group appears to be expanding its targets. Just last month, it carried out a suicide bombing near the ancient Karnak temple in Luxor. IS’ Egyptian affiliate, which is based in Sinai, remains resilient despite increasing pressure from the country’s military. Recently, militants operating in the Sinai Peninsula have escalated bombing and shooting attacks, targeting soldiers and police officers. Two weeks ago, a car bomb killed Egypt’s top public prosecutor while militants affiliated to IS attacked several military checkpoints in North Sinai, in what was the fiercest fighting in the region in years. At the time, the army reported that seventeen soldiers and more then 100 militants were killed in those clashes. Saturday’s attack on the Italian consulate in Egypt has also highlighted IS’ expanding reach. After the militant group seized large areas of Iraq and Syria last year, they have increasingly begun to expand into Egypt’s neighbour Libya, and more recently have claimed responsibility for high-profile attacks in France, Kuwait and Tunisia.

Ebola Update (10 July 2015)

In the week leading up to 5 July, there were a total of 30 confirmed cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD): 18 in Guinea; 3 in Liberia; 9 in Sierra Leone. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), while “this is the highest weekly total since mid-May, improvements to case investigation and contact tracing, together with enhanced incentives to encourage case reporting and compliance with quarantine measures have led to a better understanding of chains of transmission than was the case a month ago.” Consequently, this has resulted in a decreasing proportion of cases arising from as-yet unknown sources of infection. This is especially the case in problematic areas, including Boke and Forecariah in Guinea; and Kambia and Port Loko in Sierra Leone. Officials however have warned that significant challenges remain, specifically a lack of trust in the response amongst some affected communities, which means that some cases still evade detection for too long.

To date, there have been a total of 27,573 reported confirmed, probable and suspected cases of EVD reported in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, with 11,246 reported deaths.

Guinea

During this reporting period, a total of 18 cases were reported in Guinea. Cases were reported from the same 3 prefecture as in the previous week: Boke, Conakry and Forecariah.

During the seven days leading up to 5 July, the northern prefecture of Boke, which borders Guinea-Bissau, reported a total of 6 cases, a decline compared with the 10 cases that were reported in the previous week. Accoridng to local medical officials, all but one of the reported cases was a registered contact, with a single cases reported to have arisen from an as-yet unknown source of infection.

There was one case reported in Conakry, with officials indicating that it came from the Matam commune (municipal district) of the city and that it was a known contact of a previous case from Benty sub-prefecture in Forecariah.

The remaining 11 cases were reported in the prefecture of Forecariah, in which 9 of the cases were reported from the sub-prefecture of Benty. All but 2 of the 11 cases reported in the prefecture of Forecariah were known contacts of a previous case or have an established epidemiological link to one.

Liberia

On 9 May, the WHO declared Liberia Ebola-free, after the West African country reported no new cases for 42 consecutive days. Since being declared free of the deadly virus, the country subsequently entered a 3-month period of heightened surveillance. During this time, there were approximately 30 blood samples and oral swabs collected each day from potential cases and tested for EVD. On 29 June, a confirmed case of EVD was detected in Margibi County, the first new confirmed case to be reported in Liberia since 20 March. The case involved a 17-year-old male who first became ill on 21 June. He died on 28 June and subsequently tested positive for EVD. Two contacts of the first-detected case have since tested positive for EVD. These cases are from the same small community as the first detected case. They are currently being treated in an Ebola Treatment Centre in the capital, Monrovia. Additionally another probable EVD case is currently in isolation.

Officials are currently investigating the origin of infection of this cluster of cases. Currently, these cases are considered to constitute a separate outbreak from that which was declared over on 9 May.

Sierra Leone

During this reporting period, 9 cases were reported in Sierra Leone. The cases were reported in the same three districts as the previous weeks: Kambia, Port Loko and Western Area Urban, which includes the capital city Freetown.

Three of the cases reported during this period were recorded in the densely populated Magazine Wharf area of Freetown. Officials have disclosed that all three cases were registered contacts of a previous case.

Four chiefdoms in Kambia each reported a single confirmed case of EVD, as did two chiefdoms in the neighbouring district of Port Loko. According to officials, all but one of these cases were known contacts of a previous case or have an established epidemiological link to one.

On 8 July, Sierra Leonean officials reported that they will extend curfews, which were imposed on the worst-affected communities last month, until the deadly virus has been eradicated. While Operation Northern Push, a drive aimed at ending infections in the northwestern region of the country, was due to last 21 days, with residents of chiefdoms subjected to night-time lockdowns expecting the restrictions to end on Tuesday, Palo Conteh, head of the government’s National Ebola Response Centre, told reporters in Freetown that the 6:00 PM to 6:00 AM lockdowns will continue indefinitely. Speaking to reporters, Conteh stated, “I am pleased to announce that due to the successes we are seeing in a number of key areas Operation Northern Push will continue to run until we get to zero (cases),” adding, “curfew times will remain the same and there will be regular reviews so that we can adapt the response to meet the requirements as they change.”

Historic Negotiations with the Taliban

A delegation from the High Peace Council of Afghanistan has travelled to Pakistan to take part in historic negotiations with the Taliban, raising hopes of a breakthrough between the two groups even as the spring/summer fighting season gathers momentum and insurgent violence escalates.

Following a series of informal talks held by the two sides in various countries, the Afghan delegation met with with their Taliban counterparts on 8 July in Muree, a resort near the Pakistani capital Islamabad. Afghanistan and the United States have previously urged Pakistan to host trilateral talks with the Taliban, as they believe that Islamabad’s influence over the militant group might prove useful in expediting the peace process. It is with this in mind that Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has sought out ways of improving diplomatic relations with Pakistan, particularly in regards to increased security and intelligence cooperation. While these efforts have been widely criticised in Afghanistan, Islamabad has – by agreeing to host the talks – shown itself to be 1) susceptible to Ghani’s overtures and 2) committed to the restoration of regional stability.

So far, very little information has been revealed about the nature of the talks or the identities of the participants. On the Afghan side, the four-man team is said to include deputy foreign minister Hekmat Karzai, the nephew of former president Hamid Karzai. As the High Peace Council is supposed to operate independently from the government, Karzai’s inclusion in the negotiating team may been seen as an attempt by Ashraf Ghani to placate the former president, who has fiercely criticised Ghani’s attempts to normalise relations with Pakistan. On the Taliban side, Pakistani intelligence officials have confirmed that the negotiating team is made up of three men, whose identities have yet to be disclosed. Finally, acting as observers, are representatives of the Chinese and American governments.

While the talks have been greeted with expressions of cautious optimism, the road ahead lies strewn with obstacles, chief amongst which is the Taliban itself. Riven by disunity and unwilling to take orders from a leadership in exile, the Taliban is no longer a coherent insurgent group. A Taliban spokesperson has recently come forward saying that the individuals contracting the negotiations in Pakistan have not been authorised to do so, as the office in Qatar is the only channel through which such discussions can be held. Evidently, there is an ongoing rivalry between those members of the Taliban who want to fight and those who want to talk.

A further complication, and one which will certainly occupy the minds of those present in Islamabad, is the emergence of the Islamic State (IS) as a rival insurgent group in Afghanistan. Over the past month, IS militants are believed to have seized territory from the Taliban in six of the twenty one Nangarhar districts. Moreover, witnesses claim that many of the IS fighters are former Taliban militants who have become disillusioned with the group’s failure to reestablish its authority in Kabul. Should this state of affairs be allowed to continue indefinitely, the Taliban runs the risk of complete disintegration. While it is impossible to say at this stage what the outcome of of the talks will be, there is no doubt that the prospect of becoming a spent force will be an important – if not deciding – factor in the militants’ decision making process.