MS Risk Blog

Attack in Central Mali Shows Militants are Spreading Aggression

Militants stormed a hotel hosting United Nations staff in central Mali on Friday, seizing hostages and killing at least thirteen, including UN contractors and Malian soldiers in what is one of the most brazen attacks to occur in months.

The siege began Friday, when gunmen stormed a hotel in central Mali in an apparent attempt to kidnap Westerners. The attackers launched the assault on the Byblos hotel, in the town of Sevare, in the early hours of Friday in what military sources and local resident reported appeared to be a bid to abduct foreign guests. A military source has disclosed that Malian troops surrounded the hotel and shot dead one of the attackers who was wearing an explosive belt. The Malian army, along with foreign Special Forces, later stormed the building, brining the siege to an end nearly 24 hours later.

The UN mission in Mali (MINUSMA) has reported that two Ukrainians, a Nepalese and a South African were killed during the siege and subsequent military operation, as well as a Malian driver who was working for a company contracted by the mission. An army officer reported that “five terrorists” were killed in the operation as well as five soldiers.

Residents have reported that the army mounted patrols overnight following the siege. On the ground sources have disclosed that soldiers could be seen in Sevare as well as along the road to the nearby regional capital Mopti, which is a popular tourist destination and the gateway to Dogon County, a UNESCO World Heritage site. Sevare is located about 600 kilometres (375 miles) north of the capital, Bamako.

On Sunday, Malian authorities sought to identify the perpetrators of the hotel siege. No one has claimed responsibility for the assault, which comes during a surge in jihadist attacks in the region. The Malian government has reported that three of the attackers were killed, and seven suspected militants were detained, adding that four UN employees were rescued. The first attack to be carried out by Islamic extremists in a central Malian town indicates that militants operating in the region are spreading their aggression, targeting the government, military and the UN peacekeeping force.

In a separate incident, gunmen killed ten civilians in an attack on the village of Gaberi in northern Mali. Residents reported that the village attack began Saturday evening when three men arrived on motorbikes and infiltrate Gaberi, which is located in the Timbuktu region. Sources have disclosed that the resident opened fire on the attackers, killing one of them. Residents reported the following day that “the attackers came back this morning firing everywhere. There are nine or ten dead. People have deserted the village and set up camp around 4 km away.” Some residents have reported that they doubt that the attackers were Islamist militants, with one resident disclosing that the initial attack appeared to have been an attempted robbery, with the attackers returning later on with reinforcements.

These latest attacks are indicative of worsening security in Mali. Especially around the Timbuktu regions, as officials have reported more attacks on villagers and people on the road to market. According to Guillaume N’Gefa, human rights director for the UN Mission, “these are serious crimes by armed groups we cannot identify. The modus operandi is always the same. They attack a village and steal and then disappear. They are well-organized. These are not mere bandits.

Taliban Confirms Mullah Mohammed Omar’s Death

Last week, years of fierce speculation over the whereabouts of Mullah Mohammed Omar ended when the Taliban leader was declared dead by the Afghan government. After initially denying the claim, the Taliban named his successor, Mullah Mohammad Akhtar Mansoor. A founding member of the Taliban, Mansoor knew Omar and Osama bin Laden personally, has a reputation for being a moderate and is known to have lent his support to the peace process. Many see this as a positive move for the group, a decision that will help bring more than a decade of war to an end. There are, however, numerous problems which he will need to overcome in order make this a reality.

Mansoor is believed to have joined the Taliban in 1994, after the insurgent group gained control of Kandahar province. In the late 1990s he served as the Taliban’s aviation minister and fled to Pakistan after the US invasion in 2001. He was appointed deputy to Mullah Omar in 2013. As secretive as his notoriously camera-shy predecessor, no picture or video of the new Taliban chief has made its way into the public domain.

As Omar’s deputy, Mansoor has had years of experience managing the Taliban, experience which should have stood him in good stead for his new leadership role. However, the announcement that he would be taking over from Mullah Omar has shaken the Taliban to its core. To begin with, there has been much criticism over the way that Omar’s death was covered up, not just from the rank and file but from senior members of the Taliban. Omar’s former personal secretary, Tayeb Agha, has resigned from his position as head of a political office in Doha in protest, saying that the coverup was a “historical mistake”. In a statement issued at the time of his resignation, Agha implied that he had not been made aware of Omar’s death until very recently, an indication of how closely guarded this secret was and how deeply it has effected the Taliban’s core followers.

Another factor that will have to be considered is the effect that Omar’s death will have on the insurgency. Although Omar hasn’t made a public appearance since the fall of his government in 2001, his reputation as Amir al-Momineen (leader of the faithful) has played a vital role in preserving the group’s unity and sense of overall direction. Without it, Mansoor will have to find another way of holding the group together, a task made more difficult by the seductive appeal of the Islamic State in Afghanistan, which has in recent months succeeded in luring away many disenfranchised members of the Taliban.

MH370 Closer to Being Located

Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 is now closer to being solved after Malaysia announced Wednesday that a fragment found in Reunion in late June was part of the missing plane. The Boeing 777, which was travelling from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing on 8 March 2014, vanished from radar hours after take-off. The plane, which had 239 people on board, has been missing for 515 days.

At a news conference in Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday, Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak announced that experts examining the debris in France had “conclusively confirmed” that it was from the aircraft. Investigators however have stopped short of confirming the link, stating only that it is highly likely. Late Wednesday, French prosecutor Serge Mackowiak disclosed that there were “very strong indications” that this was the case and that confirmation would only come after further tests have been carried out. The debris located on the remote French island of Reunion in the Indian Ocean a week ago is a wing part known as a flaperon. It washed up on the beach more than 3,700 km (2,300 miles) away from the main search site. It is the first possible trace of the plane. Last week, the part was flown to a military laboratory in the French city of Toulouse, where experts have indicated that they will continue to carry out further tests on Thursday. On Thursday, Malaysia’s transport minister revealed that a Malaysian team in Reunion has collected more apparent plane debris, including a window and some aluminium foil. Liow Tiong Lai noted however that he could not confirm that the items belonged to MH370, stating that he “…can only ascertain that its plane debris.” Officials are also searching neighbouring areas, including Mauritius and Madagascar, to help comb their beaches for possible debris to widen the search.

The Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) has been co-ordinating the deep-sea hunt in the southern Indian Ocean, where the plane is believed to have gone down, thousands of miles from Reunion. On Wednesday, Australian prime minister Tony Abbot confirmed that the Australian-led search for the body of the plane would continue. The ATSB has since disclosed that it is possible that debris from the plane could have travelled that distance since the crash more than a year ago. In a statement, officials disclosed, “it is heartening that the discovery of the flaperon is consistent with our search area and we will continue to search this area thoroughly in the expectation we will find the missing aircraft.” Australia’s Deputy Prime Minister Warren Truss has stated that the investigating team is “continuing to finalize its considerations of the wreckage and we will await further detail from them.”

Search Site

Over the past seventeen months, the search for MH370 has changed in scope a number of times, first beginning in the South China Sea. At its largest, the search operation covered 7.68 million sq km (2.96 sq miles) – a total of 2.24 million square nautical miles, effectively the equivalent of 11% of the Indian Ocean and 1.5% of the surface of the Earth. On 16 March, satellite images of possible debris, along with tracking data that was released by the Malaysian authorities, appeared to indicate that the plane crashed in the Indian Ocean, just south west of Australia. After searching an area of more than 2,000 km (1,240 miles) southwest of Perth, authorities later turned to searching more than 1,000 km (600 miles) further north. In April, the search zone was narrowed to an area of 850 sq km (328 sq miles) of the ocean floor to focus on acoustic signals that were detected by Australian teams. In June 2014, a new refined search area was announced, which shifted the focus to an area that covers 60,000 sq km and which is located 1,800 km (1,100 miles) off the west coast of Australia. Authorities have searched around 30% of the priority area, using specialized sonar technology and searching to depths of up to 6,000 m (19,685 ft).

Planes Route

After departing at 00:41, Saturday 8 March 2014 from Kuala Lumpur International Airport, Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 was due to arrive in Beijing at 06:30 (22:30 GMT). Malaysia Airlines has stated that the plane lost contact less than an hour after take-off and that no distress signal or message was sent. While the plane’s planned route would have taking it north-eastwards, over Cambodia and Vietnam, evidence from military radar later revealed that the plane had suddenly changed from its northerly course to head west. Further evidence, released on 15 March, suggested that the jet had been deliberately diverted by someone on board about an hour after take-off.

Former General Expelled from Chinese Communist Party

Guo Boxiong, a former general in the People’s Liberation Army, has been expelled from the Chinese Communist Party and placed under investigation for graft, becoming the most senior military figure to be targeted in President Xi Jinping’s high profile anti-corruption campaign.

For thirteen years, Guo and Xu Caihou – another senior military figure expelled from the Party for corruption – all but controlled the People’s Liberation Army under Jiang Zemin, a former general secretary of the CCP and president and chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC). With Jiang’s assistance, Guo became a Politburo member and, in 2004, first vice chairman of the CMC.

Xinhua, the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) official mouthpiece said that Guo has been accused of accepting bribes in exchange for favours while serving as vice chairman of the CMC.  While no mention has yet been made of specific crimes he is believed to have committed or of individuals who might have benefited from his patronage, the CCP’s Politburo has said in a statement that “[a]n investigation has found that Guo Boxiong exploited his positions to seek gain for others through postings and promotions,” and that he “directly or through family members accepted bribes, gravely violating party discipline.”

The decision to mount a criminal investigation into these allegations is, according to the Politburo, proof that no official, however exalted his position, is immune from prosecution. “No matter what power one holds or how high one’s position is, if a person violates Party rules and law, he or she should be hunted down without compromise and without mercy,” the council has said. In recent months, Xi’s ongoing interest in rooting out top level corruption – or “fighting tigers” to use his own coinage – has been the subject of intense speculation. Guo’s dismissal from the Party and inevitable prosecution for corruption will no doubt assuage some of these fears.

Guo’s eventual downfall was presaged earlier this year by a corruption probe into the activities of his son, Major-General Guo Zhenggang, the deputy political commissar of the military in the eastern province of Zhejiang, and his younger brother, Guo Boquan, head of the Shaanxi Civil Affairs Bureau.

Instability Continues in Burundi a Week After Presidential Elections

Despite the election period in Burundi ending last week, with President Pierre Nkurunziza winning a controversial third term in office, the security situation in the capital city Bujumbura has remained fragile. On Sunday, a top Burundian general, and right-hand man to President Pierre Nkurunziza was killed in a rocket attack on his car. The latest incident in the country has prompted fears of further instability.

Police and eyewitnesses reported that General Adolphe Nshimirimana’s pick-up was hit by two rockets and sprayed with automatic gunfire in the capital Bujumbura on Sunday. The presidency’s communications chief, Willy Nyamitwe, confirmed that the general, a former army chief of staff and intelligence chief, had been killed. The general’s driver was also killed in the attack. Nshimirimana was widely seen as the country’s de facto internal security chief, with many considering him as the regime’s number two. The assassination comes just over a week after Nkurunziza was declared the outright winner of a controversial presidential election, effectively securing a third consecutive term despite opposition protests and international condemnation.

The killing of a top official has also sparked concerns of further instability in Burundi. In a statement, African Union (AU) Commission chief Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma disclosed that she was “horrified” by the assassination. She condemned “this barbaric act that is likely to further destabilise the country,” and urged the Burundian government, opposition political parties and civil society “to work very closely together to find a lasting solution to the current crisis.” The European Union’s foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini also condemned the attack, warning that it marked “a dangerous escalation of the violence in Burundi.”

Sources in the capital have warned that in the wake of the general’s killing, there may be possible revenge attacks. Police sources have reported that seven arrests were made, with a source in the country’s National Intelligence Service (SNR) stating that security forces were “nervous.” While there has been no immediate claim of responsibility for the assassination, plotters behind the recent failed coup have since regrouped and have launched a rebellion in the northern region of the country. They have also been linked to a string of grenade attacks that occurred in Bujumbura during the lead up to elections last month.

Shots were heard in the capital late Sunday, just hours after the general’s death. While late Monday, a leading rights activist was shot and wounded by unknown assailants in the capital city. Vital Nshimirimana has reported that Pierre Claver Mbonimpa, president of The Association for the Protection of Human Rights and Detained Persons, was fired upon while walking home.