MS Risk Blog

UN Announces 850,000 Migrants to Cross Sea to Europe in 2015 – 2016

On 9 September, the United Nations announced that at least 850,000 people are expected to cross the Mediterranean, seeking refuge in Europe this year and next.  In its announcement, the UN refugee agency, UNHCR, called for more cohesive asylum policies in order to deal with the growing numbers.

In a newly released document, the refugee agency reported that “in 2015, UNHCR anticipates that approximately 400,000 new arrivals will seek international protection in Europe via the Mediterranean.  In 2016, this number could reach 450,000 or more.”  It noted that many of the refugees are Syrians, who have been driven to make the dangerous voyage by intensified fighting there, coupled with worsening conditions for refugees in surrounding countries, which has been due to funding shortfalls in aid programmes.  UNHCR spokesman William Spindler has noted that the prediction for this year is already close to being fulfilled as 366,000 have already made the voyage.  He disclosed that the total will depend on whether migrants stop attempting the journey as the weather becomes colder and the seas more dangerous.  Currently however the numbers do not appear to have slowed down, and are not likely to given Germany’s announcement that it will ease the rules for Syrians seeking refuge who first reach the European Union (EU) through other countries.  The UNHCR has reported that a single-day record 7,000 Syrian refugees arrived in the former Yugoslav republic of Macedonia on 7 September, while 30,000 are on Greek Islands, most of them on Lesbos.

Germany has told its European partners that they must take in more refugees as it handles record numbers of asylum seekers.  Other countries, including the US and wealthy Gulf States must also take on their responsibilities.  Last week, the White House announced that it was considering steps to ease the crisis.

Malcolm Turnbull replaces ousted Tony Abbott as Australian PM

After emerging victorious from last night’s leadership spill, Malcolm Turnbull has been sworn in as Australia’s 29th Prime Minister, barely two years after his predecessor Tony Abbott led the Liberal Party to victory in September 2013.

Despite increasingly ominous rumblings from the back bench and overt expressions of discontent from his cabinet, the former prime minister had dismissed as gossip the possibility that a second challenge to his leadership would emerge so soon after the abortive February coup. However, Monday morning saw gossip merge into uncomfortable reality as Federal Minister for Communications Malcolm Turnbull handed in his resignation and demanded that Abbott call a leadership ballot.

Moments after walking away from his ministerial portfolio, Turnbull issued an excoriating critique of the Abbott government, focusing primarily on its inability to provide sound economic leadership and its continued poor performance in the polls. It had been, he said, a difficult decision to make, but one which was vital if the Labor Party was to be prevented from winning the next federal election. “We need advocacy, not slogans.” He said, alluding to Abbott’s highly divisive rhetorical style. “And we need a different style of leadership. We need a style of leadership that…explains the challenges and how to seize the opportunities, a style of leadership that respects the people’s intelligence.”

While insiders claim that Abbott was taken aback by Turnbull’s decision, the embattled leader was nevertheless quick to respond. “We are not the Labor Party.” He said, invoking the spectre of the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd leadership crisis that had all-but crippled the last Labor government. “This country needs strong and stable government and that means avoiding at all costs Labor’s revolving-door prime ministership.”

Despite these grim prognostications, Abbott was unable to rally enough support from within the party to secure his position as its leader, loosing the leadership spill to Malcolm Turnbull last night by a ten point margin.

Shortly after noon today, Abbott – who had not yet spoken publicly about his defeat – addressed the nation for the last time as its Prime Minister. Angry and defiant, his concession speech paid no tribute – however grudging – to his successor and ignored the role he himself had played in losing the confidence of his party and much of the electorate. Instead, he focused on his achievements – the free trade agreements, the refugee policy – and on those who had weakened his administration, particularly the media whose “poll driven panic” and “sour, bitter character assassinations” had made his position untenable.

As the new Turnbull administration readies itself for the upcoming election, the question remains: what will Abbott do next? Will he take up his position on the backbench and see out the rest of his term in quiet contemplation of his lot? Or will he, like Kevin Rudd, use his best endeavours to undermine the party and the individuals responsible for his downfall? In the context of what Abbott undoubtedly sees as a personal betrayal, of what value are his assurances that there will be no white-anting of the Turnbull government? Another possibility is that he may leave public office altogether, causing a by-election in Warringah, the electorate he has served as a Federal Member of Parliament since 1994. Whatever he decides to do, the reality which Turnbull now has to face is a party riven by disunity and factionalism, a situation which is unlikely to improve with next week’s
cabinet reshuffle.

EU’s Juncker Announces Refugee Quota Plan

European Union (EU) Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker announced last week plans, which he says will offer a “swift, determined and comprehensive” response to Europe’s migrant crisis.

Speaking to the European Parliament, Mr Juncker set out the plans in a “state of the union” annual address, in which he outlined the priorities of the European Commission.  Under the proposals:

• EU member states to accept their share of an additional 120,000 refugees, building upon proposed quotas to relocate 40,000 refugees, which were set out in May (however governments then only actually agreed to take 32,000)
• A permanent relocation system aimed to “deal with crisis situations more swiftly in the future”
• Commission to propose list of “safe countries” to which migrants would generally have to return
• Efforts aimed at strengthening the EU’s commons asylum system
• A review of the Dublin System, which states that people must claim asylum in the state where they first enter the EU
• Better management of external borders and better legal channels for migration

Under the new plans, 60% of those currently in Italy, Greece and Hungary would be relocated to German, France and Spain.  The numbers allocated to each country would depend on GDP, population, unemployment rate and asylum applications that have already been processed.  Countries that refuse to take in migrants could face financial penalties.

While Spain has already indicated that it will accept a quota of almost 15,000 additional migrants set by the EU, Mr Juncker’s proposals have been criticized by both Slovakia and the Czech Republic.  Czech Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka has stated that the compulsory quotas were “not a good solution,” while his Slovakian counterparty has called them “irrational.”  Poland and Romania have also opposed the idea, however Poland has agreed to take in more migrants.  France has already welcomed the first of 1,000 migrants that it has pledged to take from Germany and it has committed to receive 24,000 migrants over two years.  Waving EU rules, Germany has welcomed Syrian migrants, and has indicated that it expects to deal with 800,000 asylum seekers this year alone, warning however that not all will quality as refugees and some will be sent back.  Last week, German Chancellor Angela Merkel stated that Germany needed to learn from its mistakes in labelling incomers in the post-war period as “Gastarbeiter” or “guest workers,” with the implication that they were not permanent residents, adding that many of the refugees it expects in future “will become new citizens of our country.”

In a separate development, Australia has announced plans to take in 12,000 Syrian refugees.

The mass migration has seen those seeking an end to persecution, conflict and hardship travel from Turkey across the sea to Greece, through Macedonia and Serbia, then to Hungary, where from there they aim to reach Austria, Germany and Sweden.  This mass migration however has forced some countries to close their borders in a bid to keep migrants out or force them to travel through other countries to reach their final destinations.  On 9 September, Denmark suspended all rail links with Germany and closed a section of motorway after migrants cross the border and began walking north, apparently trying to reach Sweden.  Meanwhile in southern Hungary, migrants on the border with Serbia broke through police lines at the Roszke camp, which forced authorities to close the M5 highway.

The next steps for EU leaders will include:

14 September – Special meeting of EU interior ministers on refugees crisis, with Mr Juncker’s proposals on the agenda

15 – 16 October – EU leaders’ summit, with refugee crisis high on the agenda.  The European Parliament will then decide on any new asylum measures with EU governments

Early 2016 – EU proposals for better management of legal migration to EU are due.

Chinese National Likely Kidnapped by Islamic State

On Friday, China’s Foreign Ministry announced Friday that a Chinese national, who was reported as being held hostage by the Islamic State (IS) group, appears to be one of its missing citizens. Earlier this week, IS, which controls territory in Iraq and Syria, published two photographs of men whom they called “prisoners” in its English-language magazine Dabiq. In the magazine, the militant group indicated that one of the hostages was from Norway while the other was a Chinese man identified as Fan Jingui. It shows Fan, who has been identified as a 50-year-old “freelance consultant” from Beijing, against a black background wearing a yellow top. He provides a telegram number for anyone who wishes to pay his ransom. It remains unclear where he is being held and the magazine did not give a ransom amount.

Speaking on Friday to reporters at a regular press briefing, Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei disclosed that “after initial verification of the relevant media reports of the two hostages, one of them matches the characteristics of a Chinese citizen who has gone missing overseas.” Hong has disclosed that China had launched an emergency response mechanism and reiterated that the Chinese government is firmly opposed to violence against innocent civilians.

In the past, Chinese citizens have been held hostage overseas before, including in Africa and in Pakistan. According to Pakistani officials, a Chinese tourist kidnapped in Pakistan by the Taliban more than a year ago was freed in August, as a result of an intelligence operation.

Guatemalan President Will Face Trial on Corruption Charges

Judge Miguel Angel Galvez has ruled that former Guatemalan president Otto Perez Molina will face trial on corruption charges, after being detained last Friday following the loss of his diplomatic immunity. He will remain in prison as the country heads into a runoff election to find his successor.

On Tuesday this week, Judge Galvez determined that there were “sufficient indications” that Perez Molina had been involved in a scam in which importers paid bribes to public officials in exchange for reduced tariffs. In a series of recorded conversations played during Tuesday’s hearing, former vice president, Roxana Baldetti was heard to implicate Perez Molina in the scam by referring to him as “number 1”, “chairman of the company,” and “owner of the estate.” Baldetti, who continues to maintain his innocence, was arrested last month on charges of illicit association, fraud and graft.  Perez Molina – a former general who was elected in 2011 on an anti-corruption platform – has also denied allegations of wrongdoing and until late last week had refused to resign, despite mounting pressure from within his own government. In a pre-recorded address to the nation Perez Molina said: “I will not resign and…I categorically reject any link (to the scandal).” But after a judge ordered his detention over the allegations levelled against him the 64 year old submitted his resignation, ostensible to “maintain the institution of the presidency and resolve on his own the legal proceedings levelled against him”. His decision was accepted in a unanimous vote by congress, who afterwards swore in Alejandro Maldonado to act as caretaker president until January next year.

The fraud in which Perez Molina has been implicated was first revealed in April by the UN-backed International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala, otherwise known by the Spanish acronym CICIG. The investigation has led to the imprisonment of almost forty people and the birth of a vast grassroots movement, which has seen thousands of people take to the streets of Guatemala demanding the resignation of the President. Since its creation in December 2006 the CICIG has shone a light on endemic corruption in Guatemala. It has worked on nearly 200 cases and has helped bring charges against numerous criminal networks and around 200 politicians, police officials and military officers.