MS Risk Blog

Iraqi Military Claims IS Leader’s Convoy Hit

On Sunday, a military statement indicated that Iraq’s air force has hit a convoy of Islamic State (IS) group leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, adding that the fate of the leader was unknown.

According to Sunday’s statement, which was released by the interior ministry intelligence unit, the Iraqi air force “bombed the convoy of the terrorist Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi while he was heading to Karabla to attend a meeting with Daesh (IS) commanders.” The statement added that Baghdadi was “transported in a vehicle” after the air strike and that “his health status is unknown.” The statement concluded by indicated that “the location of the meeting was also bombed and many of the group’s leaders were killed and wounded.” The attack is said to have occurred in western Anbar province, near the border with Syria. Interior ministry spokesman Saad Maan has indicated that the strike occurred midday on Saturday. Hospital sources have disclosed that several IS fighters were amongst the casualties, however there was no sign of Baghdadi.

So far there has been no official comment from IS, however one IS media representative indicated that the government’s claim was aimed at boosting the morale amongst its troops.

While there have previously been several reports that the IS leader had been killed or seriously injured in attacks, none have been confirmed. One such claim in July 2014, was followed by a video of Baghdadi at a mosque in Mosul. The release of the video came amidst reports that he had been killed or wounded in an air raid. In November 2014, IS released an audiotape which it says was recorded by Baghdadi just days after reports emerged that he had been killed or injured. More recently in April 2015, rumours about Baghdadi’s death surfaced again after reports emerged that he was seriously wounded in an air strike earlier in the year by the US-led coalition that is opposing IS.

While the fate of Baghdadi in the wake of Saturday’s raid remains unknown, analysts have cautioned that military statements from the Iraqi authorities on the results of actions against jihadi or insurgent leaders have in the past been unreliable and are therefore treated with some caution

The IS leader has been careful to reveal little about himself and about his whereabouts, with source disclosing that even his own fighters reportedly do not speak about seeing him face-to-face. In October 2011, the United States officially designate Baghdadi as a “terrorist” and offered a US $10 million (£5.8 million) reward for information leading to his capture or death.

Rwandan Top Court Clears Way for Third Term for President

On Thursday, Rwanda’s Supreme Court ruled that President Paul Kagame could run for a third seven-year term in office, effectively rejecting an attempt by the main opposition party to block changes to the country’s constitution.

In July, the Kagame-controlled parliament backed a motion to let him run again as the leader of the East African state. While the constitutional changes still must pass a referendum, there is little chance of them failing due to the president’s control over the media and many other aspects of public life. In response to Thursday’s ruling, the opposition Democratic Green Party, which brought the case before the Supreme Court, disclosed that it would continue to push for protection of existing constitutional term limits. Green party leader Frank Habineza stated “we are not happy but we’ve not given up. We are going to appeal to the president.” While the president has not explicitly stated that he wants to run again, he has made clear he is open to persuasion.

Thursday’s ruling is likely to attract attention in other African nations where term limits are under similar pressure. The Republic of Congo is holding a referendum later this month on constitutional changes that would allow 71-year-old President Denis Sassou Nguesso to extend his decades-long rule. Meanwhile in neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo, opposition parties have accused President Joseph Kabila, who has been in power for fourteen years, of attempting to extend his time in office via violence and manipulation of a packed electoral calendar. In Burundi, President Pierre Nkurunziza’s bid for a third term in office sparked months of protests and a failed coup in April.

First Full Week with No Ebola Cases Reported Since March 2014

The World Health Organization (WHO) reported on Wednesday that no new Ebola cases were confirmed last week, effectively marking the first full week without any new cases of the deadly disease being recorded in a year an a half.

In its latest situation report on the West African Ebola outbreak, the WHO disclosed that ‘no confirmed cases of Ebola virus disease were reported in the week to 4 October,” adding, “this is the first time that a complete epidemiological week has elapsed with zero confirmed cases since march 2014.” On Wednesday, WHO officials noted that the epidemic had clearly entered a third phase, noting that the focus was no on driving “case incidence to zero, and ensure a sustained end to (Ebola) transmission.” He UN health agency also disclosed that all contacts had been completely followed up in Sierra Leone, which has seen no new cases for the past three weeks.

While Wednesday’s report is good news for the region, which has been severely affected by the outbreak, the WHO has warned that the danger is still not over, adding that two high-risk contacts in Sierra Leone, one from Bombali and one from Kambia, have gone missing. The WHO has indicated that “efforts to trace these missing contacts and mitigate the risk of any undetected transmission will continue until at least 42 days have elapsed since the last reported case in each district.” Meanwhile in neighbouring Guinea, over 500 contacts remain under follow-up in three of the country’s prefectures, with the WHO noting that all the contacts were associated with a single chain of transmission centered on the Ratoma area of the capital, Conakry. Another 290 contacts had been identified but had not been traceable for the past 42 days. The four latest cases in Guinea, reported on September 26 and 27 in Forecariah, were people infected by an unregistered contact, likely linked to the Ratoma transmission chain.

The deadliest-ever outbreak of Ebola, since the virus was identified in central Africa in 1976, has killed to date 11,312 of the 28,457 people infected since December 2013, with nearly all the victims in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. In early September, Liberia was declared free of Ebola transmission for a second time, while late last month, Sierra Leone officially began a 42-day countdown towards becoming Ebola free.

Russian Missiles Target IS in Syria from Caspian Sea

Russia has indicated that it has launched rocket strikes on Islamic State (IS) group targets in Syria from warships in the Caspian Sea, located about 1,500 kilometres (930 miles) away.

According to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, four warhips fired 26 sea-based cruise missiles on 11 targets, destroying them and casusing no civilian casualties. Meanwhile Syrian offficials have disclosed that Syrian ground roops have launched an offensive under Russian air cover. It appears to be the first co-ordinated offensive since the air campaign by Russia, which is a staunch ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, began on 30 September.

Russia has also denied claims that its week of strikes have mainly hit non-IS targets. While Russia has indicated that it is targeting “all terrorists,” at least some of its air strikes have reportedly hit civilians and Western-backed rebels. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported earlier this week that “the most intense fighting in months” in Hama and Idlib provinces, adding that the clashes followed a wave of Russian air strikes in the same areas. US Defence Secretary Ash Carter has reported that coalition forces fighting IS in Syria would not co-operate with Russia, indicating that “we believe Russia has the wrong strategy…They continue to hit targets that are not IS. We believe this is a fundamental mistake.”

Over Sixty People Killed in Last Month’s Violence in CAR

The Central African Republic (CAR) reported on Monday that more than sixty people died in violence in its capital last month as the government increased accusations that the clashes were part of an attempted coup.

A statement from the minister of public safety, Dominique Said Panguindji, who is also the government’s spokesman, disclosed that “the latest toll from the violence established by hospital sources is 61 dead and 300 hurt.” Earlier estimates had put the number of fatalities at about forty.

The violence began on 26 September after the murder of a Muslim driver. It then spread to several districts of the capital Bangui before French troops and UN peacekeepers from the 10,000-strong MINUSCA force restored calm. During this period of tension, protesters set up roadblocks and demanded the resignation of the country’s interim president Catherine Samba Panza, who was attended the UN General Assembly in New York. Due to the recent spate of violence, more than 30,000 people have fled their homes. After ending her visit short, President Samba Panza stated that those behind the violence had been trying to stage a coup. In remarks that were broadcast on national radio on 1 October, she denounced “an orchestrated manipulation by part of the population” to incite people” to rise up and resurrect sectarian conflicts.” That accusation was amplified in Monday’s communiqué, which stated that “whatever the pretext, this crisis, the latest in an unending series, is the result of a long-prepared and meticulous Machiavellian scheme to put a brake on the process of peace and national reconciliation and the electoral process…The crisis which has been imposed on us is nothing more than a coup d’état, planned by the enemies of peace and by politicians lusting for power, seeking to overturn the transitional institutions,” adding that “the organizers and their clearly identified accomplices staged an armed insurrection to take power by force.”

Speaking on 1 October on the sidelines of the General Assembly, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon stated that it was “clear” that the violence in Bangui “seeks to destabilize the country and imperil the transition process.” The CAR was due to hold presidential and legislative elections on 18 October however the polls will have to be postponed because of delays in registering voters.