MS Risk Blog

Canada’s Liberal’s Sweep to Power

Late on Monday, after a long day of voting, Canada’s Liberal Party decisively won the country’s general election, effectively ending nearly a decade of Conservative rule.

While the centrist Liberal Party, which is led by Justin Trudeau, had initially started the campaign in third place, with the New Democratic Party (NDP) leading and the Conservative Party in second place, in what is a stunning turnaround, they now command a majority. Mr Trudeau, the 43-year-old son of late Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau who is considered to be the father of modern Canada, indicated Monday that Canadians had voted for real change. Incumbent Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper, in power since 2006, has congratulated his rival and has since announced that he will be stepping down as the party’s leader. Mr Harper, one of the longest-serving Western leaders, had been seeking a rare fourth term in office. His party has announced that while he will stand down as Conservative leader, he will remain as an MP. Tom Mulcair of the left-leaning NDP also disclosed that he “congratulated Mr Trudeau on his exceptional achievement.”

The Liberal Party has won 184 seats of a total 338 seats in parliament while the Conservatives gained 99 seats. The NDP is on course to win 44 seats, less than half the number it held in the outgoing parliament. While there is no fixed transition period under Canada’s constitution, Mr Trudeau is expected to be sworn in in a few weeks’ time.

During the 11-week election campaign, the Liberal Party indicated that it would cut income taxes for middle-class Canadians while increasing them for the wealth; run deficits for three years in order to pay for infrastructure spending; do more in order to address environmental concerns over the controversial Keystone oil pipeline; take in more Syrian refugees and pull out of bombing raids against the Islamic State (IS) group while bolstering training for Iraqi forces; and legalize marijuana.

Guinea Records Two New Ebola Cases After Two Weeks of No New Cases

The World Health Organization (WHO) has reported that there are two new cases of Ebola that have been recorded in Guinea this week, effectively ending two consecutive weeks in West Africa when no cases of the disease were reported.

Officials have indicated that the two new patients were not previously identified contacts being tracked by health authorities. This suggests that officials are still unable to monitor everyone exposed to Ebola. On Friday, WHO spokeswoman Dr Margaret Harris disclosed that the UN health agency had expected to see more cases despite the recent lull in the epidemic, adding that the cases were in areas where scientists knew Ebola was spreading.

In its weekly update, WHO officials disclosed that there was a “near-term risk of further cases among both registered and untraced contacts.” To date, Ebola has killed more than 11,000 people in West Africa, mainly in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.

Sierra Leone Approaches Being Declared Ebola-Free

According to officials, Sierra Leone has not recorded a single new case of Ebola in the past four weeks, which effectively keeps the West African country on course to being declared free of the virus next month.

At a press conference, the head of the government’s National Ebola Response Centre, Palo Conteh, disclosed that “Sierra Leone has no Ebola-positive case recorded in the country for the fourth consecutive week,” adding that there were no more people in quarantine either.

The last known Ebola patients were discharged from hospital in late September, which allowed Sierra Leone to begin the standard 42-day countdown towards becoming Ebola-free. If no further cases are recorded, the World Health Organization (WHO) will declare Sierra Leone Ebola-free on 8 November.

Guinea’s Opposition Calls for Re-Run of Presidential Elections

Guinea’s opposition has called for a re-run of the weekend’s first-round of the presidential vote, condemning that the ballot was fraudulent even before the results and have been released, and pledging to take to the streets in protest.

Speaking at a press, which was attended by the six other candidates challenging incumbent President Alpha Conde, opposition leader Cellou Dalein Diallo stated, “we cannot accept this ballot, we request it be annulled. We will not accept the results of this vote…We will not give in, we have the right to demonstrate, we will demonstrate.” While the other six candidates have questioned the vote, none have called for a protest. The single woman running for election, Marie Madeleine Dioubate, urged her supports to “stay calm, stay off the streets.”

Despite clashes between Conde and Diallo supporters in the final days of the campaign, which left a dozen people dead, voting was peaceful though the opposition complained about logistical problems. Sources have disclosed that some polling stations opened late, while others were short of envelopes. Some voters turned up without voter ID cards while others failed to be listed on the registers. Some registers were neither in alphabetical nor numerical order. Voters however appeared to have turned out in massive numbers for Sunday’s polls. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has welcomed the peaceful vote and has urged all sides to refrain from any action that could lead to violence ahead of the release of the official results, which are expected Tuesday at the earliest.

US Reporter “Convicted” in Iran over Spying

Iran’s judiciary has announced that a verdict has been issued in the trial of Washington Post reporter Jason Rezaian on charges that include espionage.

While officials have not given the details of the judgement, they hinted at a conviction. Appearing on state television late on Sunday, judiciary spokesman Gholamhoseyn Mohseni-Ezhei stated, “he (Jason Rezaian) has been convicted, but I don’t have the verdict’s details,” adding that “the time for an appeal is not yet over. So the court waits and if it doesn’t receive an appeal…the verdict becomes final.” Mr Mohseni-Ezhei disclosed that Mr Rezaian and his lawyer were eligible to appeal the conviction with twenty days.

Jason Rezaian, 39, has been detained in Iran for more than a year on charges, which the Post has dismissed as absurd. Washington Post foreign editor, Douglas Jehl, has called the ruling “vague” and stated that it was unclear if Mr Rezaian had been sentenced.” He disclosed that “we’ve now heard from the Iranian government today’s (Sunday) announcement that a verdict has been issued in Jason’s case, but that its not final and that its subject to appeal…That’s really all we know, and unfortunately it reflects a continued pattern of mystery, opacity and gamesmanship surrounding the way Iran has handled this case…The only thing that’s been clear from the beginning is Jason’s innocence. Everything else has been under a real shadow of darkness.”

Mr Rezaian faces between 10 to 20 years in prison. He, along with his wife, who is also a journalist, and two photojournalists, were arrested in July 2014 in Iran. However Mr Rezaian was the only one of the group not to be released. Mr Rezaian, who was the Post’s Tehran bureau chief since 2012, was charged with espionage and distributing propaganda against the Islamic Republic. He was tired in four hearing behind closed doors, with the last one occurred in August. He is a dual Iranian-American citizen.