MS Risk Blog

Last Ebola Patient Discharged From Guinea Hospital

According to health officials, the last known Ebola patient in Guinea has recovered and has been released from a treatment centre in the capital Conakry.

A spokesman for the country’s Ebola co-ordination unit has disclosed that two tests on the patient, a baby, had come back negative. Fode Tass Sylla has disclosed that “the baby is negative and so Guinea today is without a single Ebola patient,” adding, “we are crossing our fingers and praying that nothing will happen over the next 42 days so that we can celebrate Guinea without Ebola.”

Authorities have effectively begun the countdown to the end of the Ebola outbreak in Guinea, which is the last country that was still reporting cases after nearly two years and more than 11,000 deaths worldwide. The World Health Organization (WHO) declares that Ebola disease transmission has ended when the country goes through two incubation periods, 21 days each, without a new case emerging. The other two countries hardest hit by the outbreak, Liberia and Sierra Leone, have already been declared free of the deadly disease, however in Guinea, authorities have reported that they continued to face resistance in fearful communities, where people initially blamed international health workers for bringing the virus to their region.

France Launches Overnight Raids Across the Country in Wake of 13 Nov. Attacks

Officials have reported that a total of twenty-three people have been arrested and dozens of weapons seized in a series of raids that occurred overnight and which targeted suspected Islamist militants across France. The crackdown follows multiple attacks that targeted bars, restaurants, a concert hall and a stadium in Paris on Friday, in which 129 people were killed and over 300 were left injured. Reports have also indicated that a police operation is underway in Brussels, Belgium, with on the ground sources reporting hearing shots and explosions in the district of Molenbeek.

Late Friday evening, gunmen and bombers carried out a wave attacks that targeted restaurants, a concert hall and an area near the Stade de France in northern Paris, where France and Germany were playing a friendly football match. At 2120 local time, a suicide bomber activated an explosive belt near the gate of the Stade de France in the northern suburb of Saint-Denis. At the time of the incident, the stadium was packed with spectators, including French President Francois Hollande and the German foreign minister. Officials have disclosed that the explosion killed the bomber and a passer-by. At 2125, in the 10^th district of Paris, at the crossroads of rue Bichat and Rue Alibert, gunmen shot at clients who were sitting on the terraces of the Le Carillon bar and at the Petit Cambodge restaurant. Fifteen people were killed and ten were severely injured. At 2130, outside the Stade de France, a second suicide bomber detonated a bomb, killing only himself while at 2132, gunmen opened fire in front of the A La Bonne Biere bar, which is located at the intersection of rue Fontaine au Roi and rue Faubourg du Temple in the 11^th district. Five people were killed and eight were severally injured. At 2136, gunmen killed nineteen people who were sitting on the terrace of the restaurant La Belle Equipe in nearby rue de Charone. Nine people sustained severe injuries, while around 2140, a suicide bomber killed himself inside the restaurant Le Comptoir Voltaire, which is located on boulevard Voltaire, also in the 11^th district. One person was severely injured. At 2140, a car stopped in front of the nearby Bataclan concert hall. Several gunmen entered the theatre during a concert of the Eagles of Death Metal rock group and shot indiscriminately at the crowd. Around 89 people were killed and many were left injured. Sources have reported that the attackers made verbal references to Syria and Iraq. At 2135 a third suicide bomber killed himself near the Stade de France. On Saturday, at 0020, security forces launched an assault on the Bataclan concern hall in a bid to try and free those inside. Three of the attackers inside the concert hall are killed, one of whom is shot, while the remaining two kill themselves using their explosive belt.

On Saturday, the so-called Islamic State (IS) group released an official statement, claiming responsibility for Friday’s massacre. In the statement, IS indicated that the attacks were due to France’s policies pertaining to Syria, and its participation in coalition air strikes. IS further warned France that such attacks will continue until the country changes is stance.

IS’ threat however has not forced France to rethink its strategy and position in combatting the jihadist group. While France has been bombing IS positions in Iraq and Syria, as part of a US-led operation, for months, Friday’s attacks have resulted in Paris vowing to destroy the group. Underlining its resolve, French jets on Sunday launched their largest raids in Syria to date, hitting the group’s stronghold in Raqqa. A statement released by the French Defense Ministry reported that “the raid…including 10 fighter jets, was launched simultaneously from the United Arab Emirates and Jordan. Twenty bombs were dropped,” adding that amongst the targets were a munitions depot and training camp. IS has since issued a statement saying that the raid targeted empty locations and that there were no casualties.

In the days since the tragedy, numerous details pertaining to the attack and those behind it have emerged. On Monday, French Prime Minister Manuel Valls disclosed that the attacks had been organized from Syria, further adding that the authorities believe that new terror attacks are being planned in France as well as in other European countries. There have also been numerous reports of arrests of those involved in Friday’s attack as officials in France carried out more than 150 raids on militant targets early on Monday. According to the French Prime Minister, “we are making use of the legal framework of the state of emergency to question people who are part of the radical jihadist movement…and all those who advocate hate of the republic.” Police sources have reported that properties in the Paris suburb of Bobigny, as well as the cities of Grenoble, Lyon and Toulouse, were targeted. Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve has reported that 23 people have been arrested and dozens of weapons were seized, including a Kalashnikov assault rifle and rocket launchers. More than 100 people have been placed under house arrest.

Over the weekend, officials identified five of the attackers, while on Monday, another two were named by the Paris prosecutor.

• Salah Abdeslam (26) – urgently sought by police
• Mohammed Abdeslam – arrested in Belgium; his lawyer confirmed on Monday that he has since been released without charge, proving his innocence. His brothers are Brahim Abdeslam, killed during the attacks, and Salah, who remains on the run.
• Brahim Abdeslam (31) – named as attacker who died near Bataclan concert hall
• Omar Ismail Mostefai (29) – from near Paris; died in attack on Bataclan
• Bilal Hadfi (20) – named as attacker who died at the Stade de France
• Ahmad al-Mohammad (25) – from Idlib, Syria; died at the Stade de France. While Al-Mohammed is the name on a Syrian passport that was found with the remains of one of the attackers, the man’s identify has not yet been verified. What has been confirmed is that his fingerprints match those that were taken by Greek authorities after he arrived with migrants on the island of Leros in October 2015.
• Samy Amimour (28) – from near Paris; suicide bomber at Bataclan. He was said to be facing terrorism charges in France. He was placed under judicial supervision while under investigation for terrorist conspiracy – he planned to go to Yemen. An international arrest warrant was issued against him when he broke bail in autumn 2013. Three of his relatives were amongst those detained early Monday morning.

Officials have also launched investigations in Brussels, specifically in the district of Molenbeek, which has a reputation as being a haven for jihadists. Investigators are also reported to be focusing on a Belgian of Moroccan descent, who is described as the possible mastermind of the attacks. Abdelhamid Abaoud, 27, lived in the same neighbourhood of Brussels as two of the attackers. He is now believed to be based in Syria, where he has risen through the ranks of IS. Police have also named Brussels-born Salah Abdeslam, 26, as a key suspect, and a manhunt is currently underway. He was reportedly stopped by officers in the wake of the attacks while crossing into Belgium however police let him go. Belgian authorities are confident that he is in the Brussels area.

US Deploys Troops to Cameroon

United States President Barack Obama informed Congress on Wednesday that he will deploy up to 300 personnel to Cameroon for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance operations against Boko Haram insurgents.

In a letter that was released by the White House, President Obama disclosed that ninety personnel have already been deployed, which marks a modest but significant escalation of US involvement in the fight against the terrorist group, which earlier this year aligned itself with the Islamic State (IS) group. In making Wednesday’s announcement, the White House stressed that personnel will not take part in combat operations and would be armed only for self-defense. According to White House press secretary Josh Earnest, they are being sent under an arrangement with the Cameroonian government to conduct airborne intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance operations in the region. US officials have disclosed that the focus will still be on a regional coalition that has tried to keep a once regional Muslim anti-colonial movement from metastasizing into a regional jihadist threat. In the statement, the president indicated that the mission will last “until their support is no longer needed.”

While Washington has largely shied away from engaging its vast military assets to combat Boko Haram, the White House decision comes as Boko Haram steadily expands operations beyond its traditional base in northern Nigeria, crossing into neighboring Cameroon and Niger.

Election Results in Myanmar

Under the leadership of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar’s opposition party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), remains on course for a landmark victory which if successful will give the South East Asian nation an opportunity to remake itself as an open democratic country for the first time in 25 years. Although results from Myanmar’s historic election are not yet final, the opposition have so far secured an extraordinary 327 seats in both chambers of parliament, just two short of an absolute majority which would enable them to elect a new president. Under Myanmar law, the NLD is required to secure a two thirds majority of seats not allocated to the military in order to nominate a candidate for the presidency. It is a complex process which requires both houses of parliament to chose between three presidential candidates and will, in all likelihood, not be resolved until next February.

Despite the role Suu Kyi has played in mobilising popular support for democratic reform, the former political prisoner will likely not serve in this office. Constitutional impediments established by her opponents will prevent her from being elected president on the grounds that she has two sons by a British husband, now deceased. The law, which some say was promulgated in order to prevent Suu Kyi from ever taking office, explicitly states that the president cannot have a foreign-born spouse or children. Despite this, Suu Kyi has said that if her party wins last Saturday’s election she will rule the country regardless. “I will run the government and we will have a president who will work in accordance with the policies of the NLD (National League for Democracy) ,” she told reporters. “We have a candidate that is ready to become the president … I will be above the president,” Suu Kyi said, adding that constitutional law did not prevent an individual from occupying a position above the presidency.

Even though an NLD victory looks like a forgone conclusion, there are two other alternative scenarios which demand consideration. 1) Suu Kyi’s party wins the most seats but a coalition of President Thein Sein’s Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), various ethnic parties and the army restores power to the incumbent. While unlikely, this could be achieved by the USDP with a comparatively small proportion of the vote. It would, however, be an extremely unpopular move, given the enormous outpouring of public support for Suu Kyi and the NLD. 2) Suu Kyi does not secure the requisite two-thirds majority and has to enter into a coalition with ethnic parties. Should this situation arise, Suu Kyi and the NLD would be required to negotiate with their new coalition partners over the choice of presidential candidates.

Ebola remains in Guinea as Liberia and Sierra Leone Remain Free of Virus

After killing more than 11,000 people, the world’s worst outbreak of Ebola is now down to a few cases, however they all remain in Guinea, where the disease first emerged nearly two years ago and where health workers continue to battle community resistance in their bid to end the outbreak.

According to officials, Guinea’s fight against Ebola has been hampered by residents who have abandoned preventive measures, which helped halt the spread of the deadly virus. According to Guinea task force spokesman Fode Tass Sylla, people shake hands, don’t was their hands and continue to consult with traditional healers instead of medics. Minister of Health Col. Remy Lama has disclosed that the recent reporting of new cases in the district of Forecariah “have taken us all by surprise,” adding that the district had been free of the disease for nearly forty days.