MS Risk Blog

Russian Missiles Target IS in Syria from Caspian Sea

Russia has indicated that it has launched rocket strikes on Islamic State (IS) group targets in Syria from warships in the Caspian Sea, located about 1,500 kilometres (930 miles) away.

According to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, four warhips fired 26 sea-based cruise missiles on 11 targets, destroying them and casusing no civilian casualties. Meanwhile Syrian offficials have disclosed that Syrian ground roops have launched an offensive under Russian air cover. It appears to be the first co-ordinated offensive since the air campaign by Russia, which is a staunch ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, began on 30 September.

Russia has also denied claims that its week of strikes have mainly hit non-IS targets. While Russia has indicated that it is targeting “all terrorists,” at least some of its air strikes have reportedly hit civilians and Western-backed rebels. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported earlier this week that “the most intense fighting in months” in Hama and Idlib provinces, adding that the clashes followed a wave of Russian air strikes in the same areas. US Defence Secretary Ash Carter has reported that coalition forces fighting IS in Syria would not co-operate with Russia, indicating that “we believe Russia has the wrong strategy…They continue to hit targets that are not IS. We believe this is a fundamental mistake.”

Over Sixty People Killed in Last Month’s Violence in CAR

The Central African Republic (CAR) reported on Monday that more than sixty people died in violence in its capital last month as the government increased accusations that the clashes were part of an attempted coup.

A statement from the minister of public safety, Dominique Said Panguindji, who is also the government’s spokesman, disclosed that “the latest toll from the violence established by hospital sources is 61 dead and 300 hurt.” Earlier estimates had put the number of fatalities at about forty.

The violence began on 26 September after the murder of a Muslim driver. It then spread to several districts of the capital Bangui before French troops and UN peacekeepers from the 10,000-strong MINUSCA force restored calm. During this period of tension, protesters set up roadblocks and demanded the resignation of the country’s interim president Catherine Samba Panza, who was attended the UN General Assembly in New York. Due to the recent spate of violence, more than 30,000 people have fled their homes. After ending her visit short, President Samba Panza stated that those behind the violence had been trying to stage a coup. In remarks that were broadcast on national radio on 1 October, she denounced “an orchestrated manipulation by part of the population” to incite people” to rise up and resurrect sectarian conflicts.” That accusation was amplified in Monday’s communiqué, which stated that “whatever the pretext, this crisis, the latest in an unending series, is the result of a long-prepared and meticulous Machiavellian scheme to put a brake on the process of peace and national reconciliation and the electoral process…The crisis which has been imposed on us is nothing more than a coup d’état, planned by the enemies of peace and by politicians lusting for power, seeking to overturn the transitional institutions,” adding that “the organizers and their clearly identified accomplices staged an armed insurrection to take power by force.”

Speaking on 1 October on the sidelines of the General Assembly, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon stated that it was “clear” that the violence in Bangui “seeks to destabilize the country and imperil the transition process.” The CAR was due to hold presidential and legislative elections on 18 October however the polls will have to be postponed because of delays in registering voters.

Boko Haram Targets Nigerian Capital

Two bomb blasts ripped through the outskirts of the capital Abuja, including one target that was twice hit before by Boko Haram militants.

Friday’s explosions occurred near a police station in Kuje and at a bus stop in Nyanya at about 10:30 PM. The same bus station in Nyanya, which is located to the east of the capital, was targeted twice last year. In the first attack, on 14 April, at least 75 people were killed and it was claimed by the Islamists; while the second attack occurred on 1 May and left at least 16 people dead. Kuje, which is located near Abuja’s airport, is some 40 kilometres (25 miles) west of the city centre. It is also the seat of government. Its prison is reportedly holding dozens of Boko Haram prisoners who have been captured by troops. Nigeria’s National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) warned of casualties from the simultaneous explosions in Kuje and Nyanya and likened the explosives used to those in the areas that have ben the worst-hit by the group’s six-year insurgency. According to NEMA spokesman Manzo Ezekiel, “it was not an accidental explosion…definitely it was a bomb,” adding, “at this time we can only confirm the explosions. Our officers are on the ground. There are a number of dead but we can’t say anything about numbers now.” Ezekiel further disclosed that the latest blasts occurred almost simultaneously, adding that it appears to use “the same kind of explosives used in the insurgency.” Abuja was last attacked on 25 June this year, when 22 people were killed in a blast that targeted a popular shopping centre located in the heart of the capital. Boko Haram later claimed responsibility for the attack and a separate strike, which occurred later that day in the Apapa port district of the financial capital, Lagos.

 In a message that was posted on social media on Sunday evening, Boko Haram has claimed responsibility for twin bomb attacks that occurred on the outskirts of Abuja. According to authorities, at least 18 people were killed and 41 injured in the bombings, which occurred on Friday night in Juje and in Nyanya. The claim of responsibility on Twitter was signed by Islamic State in West Afica Province, used by Boko Haram since it pledged alleigants to the militants in Syria and Iraq in March. The message showed photographs of three men in combat fatigues, holding automatic weapons and in frton of the group’s insignia, and claimed that they had carried out “martyrdom operations.” On Saturday, police indicated that “preliminary investigations reveled the bomb blasts were carried out by two suicide bombers – a male and a female.”

Burkina Faso Coup Leader Arrested

The leader of the country’s short-lived coup was in police custody after he handed himself in as authorities ramped up a probe into last month’s putsch.

Sources have reported that General Gilbert Diendere, who had indicated several times that he was willing to face justice following the 17 September coup, was being held at the Paspanga police base, which is located near the centre of the capital. News of his arrest was met with cheers on the streets of Ouagadougou. On Tuesday, the general sought refuge at the residence of the Vatican’s ambassador just before an army raid on the barracks of his elite military regiment. In a statement, the interim government disclosed that “general Diendere and his accomplices will answer for all the offences of which they are accused,” adding that a commission of inquiry was already “hard at work” investigating the coup. A military source has disclosed that military justice will deal with General Diendere. On Wednesday, six officers who took part in the coup were arrested while lieutenant colonel Mamadou Bamba, who had read the coup plotters’ statements on television, handed himself over to police the following day. Interim authorities have accused General Diendere, who has been involved in several negotiations for hostages held by Tuareg groups in the Sahel region, of “mobilizing foreign forces and jihadis groups” in the coup. He has rejected these allegations.

Meanwhile on Thursday, the vice president of a Tuareg rebel movement, Mahamadou Djeri Maiga, was briefly arrested at Ouagadougou airport over suspected links to the coup. According to a source, Djeri Maiga, the vice president of the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA), “was arrested over allegations that he provided logistical support to the coup.” He was held Thursday afternoon at Ouagadougou airport as he tried to board a plane to leave the country. He was released after several hours.

According to a senior army source, a majority of troops from the presidential guard (RSP) had joined loyalist units after their regiment was disbanded under the peace agreement and assigned to other unites. A source in the army high command has disclosed that more than 800 men of the RSP’s 1,300-strong force have taken up new postings, adding that the remainder are being sought. The military source indicated that those who have yet to join loyalist forces have until Friday in order to show up at their new postings, adding that if they fail to do so, they “will be considered deserters.”

Threat of Civil War in CAR in Wake of Latest Outbreak of Violence

On Wednesday, a UN expert warned that the country could descent into “civil war” if the latest upsurge in violence is not brought under control.

Speaking to the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva, Marie-Therese Keita Boucoum disclosed that she fears “…that if this violence is not rapidly contained, targeted attacks based on ethnicity and religion inevitably risk increasing and leading to a real civil war,” adding that “disarming armed group s must be an absolute priority” ahead of presidential and general elections, which are due by the end of the year. Boucoum, who is the UN’s independent expert on the former French colony, called on the Central African government to “present a realistic and concrete plan” for disarmament and for reforming the security services. Meanwhile Bangui’s ambassador to the UN in Geneva, Leopold Ismael, also addressed the Human Rights Council, and called on the international community to “take concrete action,” charging that it showed an apparent “willingness to keep CAR in the abyss.” He further stated that those behind the violence “are known and are not hiding.” He urged French soldiers and UN peacekeepers already in the country to “oppose and stop these repeated outbursts of violence and killings.”

The latest wave of sectarian violence was sparked with the murder of a Muslim motor-taxi driver in Bangui on Saturday. Clashes over the past several days have left nearly forty people dead, with the UN reporting that almost 30,000 people have fled their homes. Presidential elections were due to be held in mid-October however it remains uncertain whether officials will proceed with the polls.