MS Risk Blog

Rwanda’s MP’s Back Constitution to Allow President to Extend Rule

In a move that has been opposed by the United States and other donors, Rwanda’s lower house of parliament on Thursday voted to allow President Paul Kagame to extend his rule beyond a second term, which ends in 2017, and possibly stay on until 2034.

According to lower house speaker Donatilla Mukabalisa, Article 172 of the amended constitution, which would allow the president to extend his rule, was supported by all 75 lawmakers present. The lower house has 80 seats however some lawmakers were absent. Under the amendments, which were approved after debates were held on Wednesday and Thursday, the presidential term will be decreased to five years from seven. Furthermore, while the limit of two terms will remain, an exception is made for the currently president, namely Kagame. According to one lawmaker, who explained the amendment, article 172 effectively allows President Kagame to serve out his seven-year term, which ends in 2017, and also to seek a third seven-year term after that. Furthermore, even beyond that, the president could seek two more five-year terms. President Kagame, who has not explicitly indicated that he wants to run again, stating only that he is open to persuasion, could effectively remain in power until 2034.

While draft amendments to the country’s constitution, which have been approved by the lower house, still need to be backed by the upper house of senators and then put to a referendum, they are not expected to stumble at either stage. Parliament, which is dominated by the president’s backers, debated the issue after a petition calling for changes was signed by 3.7 million supporters of the president. While the country’s main but small opposition, the Democratic Green Party, attempted to block the amendment to extend the president’s term, a court rejected the bid. Critics however have disclosed that the government stifles opposition media and politicians, a charge that officials have denied.

Ivory Coast Incumbent Wins Presidential Election

Ivory Coast’s President Alassane Ouattara has won the weekend’s presidential election, the elections commission announced on Wednesday.

According to President of the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) Youssouf Bakayoko, Ouattara won a total of 2,118,229 votes, or 83.66 percent of ballots, adding that Sunday’s vote had a turnout of 54.63 percent. Results have indicated that Ouattara won the most votes in all but one of the 31 regions as well as in the largest city, Abidjan, and the capital, Yamoussoukro. Furthermore, he won all but sixteen votes in his home constituency of Kong, which is located in Ivory Coast’s north, where more than 14,000 voters cast their ballots.

Of the six candidates who were seeking to unseat Ouattara, his closest challenger was Pascal Affi N’Guessan, head of ex-president Laurent Gbagbo’s Ivorian Popular Front (FPI). He won 9.29 percent of the votes in Sunday’s election. The results announced by the CEI must now be validated by the constitutional court. Late on Tuesday, before the results were announced, Ouattara stated, “I would like to congratulate all Ivorian’s for their maturity and exemplary behaviour…Ivory Coast is resolutely committed to the path of stability and the reinforcement of democracy.” Sunday’s election has been judged to be peaceful and transparent by observers, which will likely reassure the county’s investors.

Six People Kidnapped and Killed in CAR

A government spokesman disclosed on Tuesday that three hostages seized in the CAR this week were killed and three more seized later by another group were also killed.

Sources have indicated that three officials from the mostly Muslim Seleka alliance were attacked on Monday as they were driving through a neighborhood controlled by the rival milita. Later that same day, three young Christians working in a Muslim enclave of the capital Bangui, known as PK5, were abducted in an apparent act of revenge. Security minister and government spokesman Dominique Said Panguindji has since indicated that all six hostages have been killed.

Political sources in the CAR have reported that the assassination of the Seleka members is surprising as they belonged to a moderate faction known as the Union for Peace in Central Africa (UPC), which is mostly composed of ethnic Peuhls. The missing men included the UPC’s spokesman, Ahmat Nejad, and its secretary general, Ahssan Bouba. The abductions come just days after anti-balaka militiamen briefly seized a senior figure in the transitional government outside of Bangui.

The incidents risks derailing talks that are aimed at restoring order in the country. The Seleka members had been participating in the talks, which were convened by interim President Catherine Samba Panza. Tensions have been running high in the capital since late September, when a Muslim man was killed – an incident that set off a new explosion of reprisal attacks. On Tuesday, hundreds of youths erected barricades made of lead pipes and wooden planks in the second district of Bangui in order to protest the Christian men’s abduction. They were later dispersed by security forces.

Congolese President Wins Referendum

Results have shown that more than 92% of voters in the country’s controversial referendum have approved constitutional changes to allow President Denis Sassou Nguesso to run for a third term in office.

According to figures read out by the electoral commission on radio on Tuesday, turnout in the referendum, which was held on Sunday, was 72 percent. The electoral commission further disclosed that more than 1.2 million people voted in favor of the change, while nearly 102,000 rejected it.

The opposition had boycotted the poll, with a senior opposition leader stating on Monday that the poll should be annulled due to low voter turnout. Clement Mierassa has disclosed that “from what we could see on the day of the vote, the announcement that turnout was more than 72% is extremely scandalous.”

President Sassou Nguesso, 71, is one of Africa’s longest serving rulers. He first came to power in 1979, ruling until 1992 when he lost the elections. He returned as president in 1997, after a brief civil war, and has since won two elections. He is now coming to the end of his second seven-year term. Under the current constitution, the president has been unable to seek re-election because he is over the age of 70 and has already served two terms. The presidential election is due to take place in 2016. In September, tens of thousands of people took part in a peaceful demonstration against the referendum. Last week, four people were killed and dozens left inured when security forces dispersed angry protesters in the capital, Brazzaville, as well as in the economic hub of Pointe-Noire.

Africa’s Longest-Serving Leaders:

• 36 Years – Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo (Equatorial Guinea) took power in a coup in August 1979.
• 36 Years – Jose Eduardo dos Santos (Angola) took over after the death of the country’s first president in September 1979.
• 35 Years – Robert Mugabe (Zimbabwe) won the country’s independence elections in April 1980.
• 32 Years – Paul Biya (Cameroon) took over after the resignation of the country’s first president in November 1982.
• 31 Years – Denis Sassou Nguesso (Republic of Congo) was installed by the military in October 1979. He was out of power from August 1992 until October 1997.
• 29 Years – Yoweri Museveni (Uganda) became president after his rebel group took power in January 1986.

Boko Haram Militants Seize Control of Town in Cameroon

According to security and regional sources, Boko Haram militants on Friday seized control of a town in the far north of Cameroon, which lies on the border with Nigeria.

A security source confirmed Friday that the militants “…now control Kerawa.” The information was also confirmed by another source close to the regional authorities, who indicated that an unspecified number of civilians had been killed in the assault. Local officials reported Friday that Cameroonian soldiers fought Boko Haram militants who raided a village in the Far North region, just a day after a similar attack in the area. According to one local official, “since yesterday, Boko Haram members raided the Kerawa village…They slit the throats of between three and seven people yesterday and killed others.”

Kerawa, which has 50,000 inhabitants, is located in the Kolofata district, which has been regularly targeted by Boko Haram militants. There is a military camp inside the town, which was last hit by a double suicide bombing on 3 September, which claimed at least thirty lives.