MS Risk Blog

African Forces Begin US-led Counter-Terrorism Training in Senegal

On Monday (8 February), African forces began a US-led counter-terrorism training programme in Senegal, which is aimed at what a US commander said were rising signs of collaboration between Islamist groups across northern Africa and the Sahel region.

The annual “Flintlock” exercises began only weeks after an attack in Burkina Faso’s capital city Ouagadougou, which left thirty people dead. The assault on the hotel used by foreigners raised concerns that militants were expanding from a stronghold in northern Mali, towards stable, Western allies, such as Senegal. Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) fighters claimed responsibility for the attack, which is just one of several increasingly bold regional strikes that have occurred in the Sahel region. Speaking to reporters on Monday, US Commander for Special Operations Command Africa Brigadier General Donald Bolduc indicated that increased collaboration between militant groups effectively meant that they have been able to strengthen and strike harder in the region. According to General Bolduc, “we have watched that collaboration manifest itself with ISIS becoming more effective in North Africa, Boko Haram becoming more deadly in the Lake Chad Basin (and) AQIM adopting asymmetrical attacks…against urban infrastructure.” He further noted that cooperation has increased as the so-called Islamic State (IS/ISIS) group exploited a power vacuum in Libya to expand its self-declared caliphate, which takes up large areas in Syria and Iraq. He added that “we know in Libya that they (AQIM and ISIS) are working more closely together. Its more than just influence, they (AQIM) are really taking direction from them.” He also stressed the importance of regional cooperation and intelligence-sharing, adding that the United States would help Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria set up a joint intelligence center by the middle of next year. The US already supports a regional task force against Nigerian-based terrorist group Boko Haram. However not all security experts agree that there are emerging alliances between Islamist militant groups, with some arguing that competition between groups has led o more attacks.

This year’s programme, which opened on a dusty airstrip in Senegal’s central city of Thies, involves around 1,700 mostly African special operation forces. Western partners are also participating in the programme, including forces from France and Germany, which are amongst more than thirty countries that are participating. The attacks in Ouagadougou, coupled with a hotel attack in the Malian capital of Bamako in November 2015, have led to a greater emphasis on preparing for urban attacks this year through training to increase cooperation between police and military forces. At the request of African partners, this year’s exercises will also include anti-Improvised Explosive Devices (IED) training. The programme, which has been an annual event since 2005, will run from 8 February until 29. Some exercises will also be held in Mauritania.

Funding Falls Short for Task Force to Fight Boko Haram Militants

Last week, an African Union (AU) official reported that funding for a multinational force to combat Boko Haram’s deadly Islamist insurgency in West and Central Africa remains well short of its target.

In comments made shortly after a meeting in Addis Ababa to discuss funding, the African Union’s Peace and Security Council disclosed that so far, including Nigeria, Switzerland and France, have pledged about US $250 million to fund the 8,700-strong regional force. According to Orlando Bama, communications officer for the African Union’s Peace and Security Council, the US $250 million includes both previous pledges and those made during Monday’s conference. That effectively covers just over a third of the US $700 million budget that was announced for the Multi-National Joint Task Force (MNJTF) last year.

The task force, which is to be made up of regional African militaries, has yet to mobilize. Instead, national armies are tackling Boko Haram individually, however they often cannot follow the insurgency across the region’s long, porous borders. Regional armies from Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria mounted an offensive against the insurgents last year, which ousted them from many positions in northern Nigeria. The United States has also sent troops to supply intelligence and other assistance, however progress has been slow, with Boko Haram continuing to have the capabilities to launch deadly attacks both inside Nigeria, as well as in the Lake Chad Basin.

Monday’s talks come after the militant group’s latest attack, which killed at least 65 people in northeastern Nigeria on Saturday.

Political Crisis in Moldova

Moldova has seen a rough start of this year as the political crisis since the voting down of the Strelet government has carried on. Large masses of people have taken to protesting what is considered political corruption and demanding new elections. In October 2015 the government, led by Prime Minister Valeriu Strelet, was voted down with a vote of no confidence. The joint motion from the Democratic Party (PDM), Party of Socialists (PSRM) and Party of Communists (PCRM) was carried after it won 65 votes in the 101 seat parliament. The no confidence motion was a response to the series of popular protests against the government accusing it of official corruption. The Moldovan government has gone through a longer period of political instability after it was discovered that 1 billion US dollars had been fraudulently siphoned from the Banca de Economii. Since 1 billion USD is the rough equivalent of 15% of the Gross Domestic Product of Moldova, the theft of this money has brought severe financial hardship to a lot of its citizens. In the middle of December last year, about two weeks after the motion of no confidence was carried, President Nicolae Timofti unexpectedly nominated Ion Sturza, one of Moldova’s former Prime Ministers, as his candidate for the head of a new government. Sturza was unlikely to get the support of lawmakers though, and a majority of the Moldovan parliament boycotted voting for Sturza’s government in early January of this year. On the 15 of January president Timofti instead nominated former technology minister and ex-candy factory manager, Pavel Filip as his candidate for the Prime Minister position. The constitution of Moldova states that the President can nominate a candidate for the post as Prime Minister, a candidate who then has 15 days to form a government and present, for parliamentary approval, a political programme. It further states that the President can dissolve the parliament and appoint early elections if no vote of confidence for the new government is agreed on within 45 days of nomination. That period would have expired on 29 January. A parliamentary vote was held on 20 January and resulted in the approval of the new government. It thereby ended the three-month deadlock between Parliament and President. The approval of the new government led masses of the population to hold large-scale protests in the streets of Chisinau and throughout the country for three days. The popular discontent has since then sparked other anti-government protests around the country but mainly concentrated to the capital area. It seems the people of Moldova refuse to accept the new government and call for early parliamentary elections. Parliamentary elections take place every four years and the next one is scheduled for 2018. Some protests have been peaceful while others have resulted in clashes between protesters and authorities. On 20 January, the day the new Prime Minister was approved and presented his new government to Parliament, hundreds of protesters were reported to have stormed the Parliament building, pushing their way through the lines of police officers trying to hold them back. 15 people were injured in these clashes, nine of them reportedly from the authorities. The government of Moldova has been viewed by many as a corrupt ruling class who prioritises their own interest over the good of the republic. This is something the common people have had enough of, and it seems the Moldovans are ready to express just how fed up they are. Experts on the matter say some Moldovans prefer pro-Russian parties as an alternative to the pro-European government, which has been in power since 2009. Some protesters have directed a lot of criticism towards the government for failing to carry out promised reform and fight the corruption that has been one of the biggest problems in the country. “There is very real anger at the Moldovan political elite,” said Daniel Brett, an associate professor at the Open University. Protests have been arranged by the pro-Russian parties of the opposition and by a civic group called Dignity and Truth. On 24 January, local police blocked access to all administrative buildings in the capital as opposition went on with its anti-government protests. The numbers were estimated to 15000, still calling for new elections and the Parliament dissolved. In a way this is similar to the situation in Kiev a couple of years back. But the political lay-out is in reverse, instead of a popular strive towards closer cooperation with the west and the EU, the current political climate of Moldova is characterized by strong scepticism towards the EU. The large numbers and the passion with which people have participated in the protests might indicate that many are willing to go far for change. The question is how far and whether or not the discontent will lead to further escalations and more violence. It would seem that the leaders of the opposition would do better to discourage violence, avert possible attempts to topple the regime, and rather take power through winning fair and democratic elections. Change of rule without the people’s consent is generally not sustainable.

Ambassadors Call for Tighter Regional and Global Cooperation to Fight Threat of Attacks in Senegal

On Tuesday, the ambassadors of France and the United States issued separate statements calling for tighter regional and global cooperation to fight the threat of jihadist attacks in Senegal and the broader West Africa region. In the wake of two successive attacks in the past few weeks, which saw the capitals of Mali and Burkina Faso being targeted, Senegal’s Interior Minister Abdoulay Daouda Diallo disclosed that “the surge of terrorist groups shows the international community must fight terrorism everywhere with the same combativity.”

Speaking at talks on a four-year French funding plan against terrorism, he added that the only way forward was to “strengthen our cooperation” and “share our means.” France’s ambassador to Senegal, Jean-Felix Paganon, who attended the meeting, stated that cooperation in the fight against the Islamist threat “calls for regional and international cooperation.” Meanwhile in a separate meeting with the media, US ambassador James Zumwalt stated that “the Senegalese are very eager to partner with us and work with us because they obviously are concerned about the possibilities of terrorist incidents and also worried about radical extremism here in Senegal.” He added that “the threat is no greater now than it was before the attack in Burkina Faso, it’s the same thereat. And the Senegalese capability is the same capability that they had before.” The US ambassador also indicated that “there’s more awareness now about those threats and we clearly want to work very closely with Senegal to help them increase their capacity to respond, either pre or post attack, to a terrorist incident.” An upcoming three-week joint military exercise between Africa, US and European troops, known as Flintlock and due to begin in Senegal and Mauritania next week, will aim to help a country respond to an Islamist attack. Senegal, like Mali and Burkina Faso – which were hit by deadly Islamist attacks in November and January respectively – is a majority Muslim nation however it has so far been free of extremist jihadist attacks. However a Senegalese security source has disclosed that in November, around a dozen people, including several Muslim preachers, were arrested in the country for “links to AQIM (al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb) and Islamic State.”

On 15 January, gunmen launched an attack on two hotels and a café popular with foreigners in the Burkinabe capital Ouagadougou, leaving thirty, mostly foreigners, dead. In November, militants launched a similar attack on the Radisson Blu hotel in Bamako, Mali. Both attacks were claimed by AQIM.

IMO: North Korea Has Issued Shipping Warning for Satellite Launch

On Tuesday (2 February 2015) North Korea issued a formal notification of an imminent satellite rocket launch, effectively flagging a second major breach of United Nations resolutions following its nuclear test last month. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has disclosed that it has received a shipping warning from North Korea of its intention to launch an earth observation satellite between 8 – 25 February 2015.

While Pyongyang insists that its space programme is purely scientific in nature, the international community views such launches as disguised ballistic missile tests. UN resolutions forbid North Korea from any use of ballistic missile technology. It imposed sanctions following its last rocket launch in December 2012.

If the notified launched does go ahead, it will be a particularly defiant slap in the face of the United States, which has spent the last month seeking international support for tough sanctions on Pyongyang over its 6 January nuclear test. That test, which drew international condemnation, was its fourth nuclear bomb test.