MS Risk Blog

Niger Presidential Election – Opposition Calls Fraud as Votes Start to Trickle

On Tuesday, 23 February, opposition parties in Niger rejected initial results from the country’s presidential election, held on 21 February, which showed incumbent Mahamadou Issoufou in the lead. The opposition has called the results fraudulent.

Provisional results released from twenty of the country’s 308 municipalities indicate that Issoufou has so far garnered 40.18 percent of the vote, more than 10 percentage points ahead of his closest rival. Despite claims by the authorities that the vote met “international standards,” Amadou Boubacar Cisse, an election candidate and spokesman for the Coalition for Change group of opposition parties has stated “these results are completely contrary to what was expressed at the ballot box.” The opposition has also accused the Nigerien government of voter intimidation and warned of false results.

On 21 February, Niger closed its land borders and increased security for the election, with on the ground sources reporting that security forces patrolled the cities and villages in case of unrest or militant attacks. Some voters disclosed Sunday that they had never experienced such a tense election. While there were few reports of trouble, security sources did indicate that unidentified armed men attacked two electoral commission vehicles in a rural area about 100 kilometres (60 miles) northwest of the capital city.

Voting on Sunday ended at 7 PM (1800 GMT) after a day of steady turnout, with those voters still queuing allowed to cast their ballots after that time. Voting in the country’s presidential and legislative elections was extended for a second day on Monday, 22 February, in areas where logistical problems prevented the polls from taking place the previous day. Polls on Monday were open in four of the eight regions: the northeastern Tahoua region, and Zinder, Diffa and Tillaberi, in the east, southwest and west respectively. A total of 7.5 million people were eligible to vote across the country. Late on Monday, the heads of observation missions, including the African Union (AU) reported that the 21 February elections took place “in a calm and serene environment.”

In the months leading up to the Niger’s presidential and legislative elections, the climate across the country has been made tense by Islamic extremist and complaints about a crackdown on dissent. For more than a year, the southeastern region of Niger has been targeted by cross-border raids carried out by Nigerian-based extremist group Boko Haram. The attacks and heightened threat have prompted officials to impose a state of emergency in the affected region. Recent high-profile attack carried out by al-Qaeda’s North African branch, AQIM, in the capital of neighbouring Mali and Burkina Faso have further raised fears that the Nigerien capital, Niamey, could be a target.

Further adding to the tensions is that government critics have accused the president of silencing opponents in a bid to stay in office. Critics point to a recent number of arrests of opposition politicians, journalists and a singer who released a song that was critical of incumbent president Issoufou.

Italy Agrees to Let Drones Targeting IS Militants Depart from Sicily

On Tuesday, 23 February, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi disclosed that Italy has agreed to allow armed US drones to take off from an air base in Sicily on a case-by-case basis for defensive missions against Islamic State (IS) militants in North Africa.

In an interview with RTL radio, Prime Minister Renzi disclosed that “if it is a matter of operations against terrorists, against potential Islamic State attackers, there is a close relationship between us and the other allies, above all the Americans.” The Italian prime minister, who has repeatedly stated that is country will not take part in military strikes in Libya without the express request of a recognized government, further disclosed that the defense mission would be authorized “case by case.” While Renzi has said that he prefers a diplomatic response to IS, which has faced US-led air strikes on the caliphate it has proclaimed across swathes of Syria and Iraq since 2014, on Tuesday he noted “but then, if we have proof that there are ‘kamikaze’ attackers preparing potential strikes, naturally Italy will do its part along with all the others.”

Late on Monday, an Italian defense ministry official disclosed that the agreement would effectively allow defensive missions and not offensive action, such as the attack on a suspected militant training camp in Sabratha, Libya that killed dozens last week. The ministry official further indicated that Italy will authorize departures from the Sigonella base near Catania only if each mission’s aim is to protect personnel, adding that so far no request had been made.

Sigonella, which is located in eastern Sicily, is home to a US Naval Air Station as well as a base for the Italian Air force. It is sometimes used for logistical support for American and other NATO forces. The Wall Street Journal has reported that US officials have been trying to persuade Italy to let them conduct such operations from the Sigonella air base for more than a year. It added that US officials are pushing for drones destined for offensive operations like the Sabratha strike to take off from Sicily, however Italian officials have baled at the step over fears of domestic opposition.

After expanding into Syria and Iraq, IS is now exploiting the ongoing chaos in Libya, where two rival government shave been vying for power since Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown in 2011. The militant group is trying to establish bases in the North African state in a bid to conduct raids both in Libya and in neighbouring Tunisia, which has already been affected by IS attacks. On 19 February, the US launched an attack on a base in Sabratha, near the Tunisian border, and targeted Nourredine Chouchane, a Tunisian militant linked to two raids in Tunisia that killed dozens, mostly tourists. The aircraft that carried out that attack took off from a base in Britain.

Tensions Remain High in Uganda in Wake of Presidential Election

 On Saturday, long-time Ugandan leader Yoweri Museveni was declared the winner of the country’s disputed presidential election, with his main rival rejecting the results, stating that they are fraudulent and calling for an independent audit of the country.

According to the final results, which were announced by the election commission, Museveni got more than 60 percent of the votes while his nearest rival Kizza Besigye received 35 percent. While Museveni was re-elected president, at least nineteen of his ministers lost their parliamentary seats. Amongst them was defense minister Crispus Kiyonga, who is spearheading regional efforts to end the political crisis in Burundi, and attorney general Fred Ruhindi. Some 9.7 million Ugandans voted, a turnout of around 63 percent, for president and members of parliament, with 290 assembly seats contested by candidates from 29 political parties. Furthermore, on Monday, election commission spokesman Jotham Taremwa disclosed that Saturday’s election results did not include tallies from at least 1,242 polling stations – effectively about 4 percent of all polling stations. While Taremwa has disclosed that the missing results cannot change the outcome, Besigye’s supporters have noted that they could bring down Museveni’s margin of victory. Museveni needed 50 percent plus one vote in order to avoid a runoff election.

Besigye was under house arrest as Museveni was declared the winner. On the ground sources have reported that heavily armed police were standing guard near his residence, which is located on the outskirts of the capital, Kampala. In a video, Besigye rejected the results, stating, “we knew right from the beginning the electoral commission that was organizing and managing these elections was a partisan, incompetent and discredited body as from the previous elections,” adding, “we knew that the military and security organizations were going to be engaged in a partisan and unfair way like they did in the past.” Besigye urged the international community to reject the official tally. The president’s ruling party, the National Resistance Movement, has urged “all candidates to respect the will of the people and the authority of the electoral commission and accept the result. We ask all Ugandans to remain calm and peaceful and not to engage in any public disruptions.”

While following the announcement of the results, the capital, which has been under a heavy security presence, was calm on Saturday, tensions increased on Monday when police arrested Besigye as he tried to leave his home where he had been confined under house arrest. On the ground sources reported seeing police push Besigye into the back of a blacked-out van and take him away to a police station in a rural area outside the capital. Besigye had been going to the election commission to get detailed copies of results from the presidential elections. Uchenna Emelonye of the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights visited Besigye in the police station, telling reporters shortly after that he “has not been informed, formally or informally, why he is being detained. Polly Namaye, a police spokeswoman, has however disclosed that officers arrested Besigye in order to keep him from “storming the electoral commission with his supporters.”

Thursday’s voting was marred by lengthy delays in the delivery of polling materials. There were also some incidents of violence as well as a government shutdown of social media sites, such as Facebook and Twitter, which remained inaccessible on Saturday. The European Union (EU) observer mission has since reported that the election was marked by an “intimidating atmosphere, which was mainly created by state actors. Speaking to reporters on Saturday, EU mission leader Eduard Kukan stated that Uganda’s election commission lacks independence and transparency and does not have the trust of all the parties. According to the EU’s preliminary report, opposition supporters were harassed by law enforcement officials in more than twenty districts. Former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, the head of the Commonwealth observer mission, also reported that Uganda’s elections “fell short of meeting key democratic benchmarks,” while the US State Department deputy spokesman Mark Toner disclosed that “the Ugandan people deserved better…We encourage those who wish to contest the election results to do so peacefully and in accordance with Uganda’s laws and judicial process, and urge the Ugandan government to respect the rights and freedoms of its people and refrain from interference in those processes.”

CAR Elects New President After More Than Two Years of Sectarian Fighting

On Sunday, the newly elected president of the Central African Republic (CAR) vowed to unite the country while thanking his opponent for conceding defeat in the runoff vote.

Faustin Archange Touadera, a former prime minister, was declared the winner of the 14 February runoff on Saturday night, having garnered 62.71 percent of the vote. While his rival, Anicet Georges Dologuele, who won 37.29 percent of the vote, expressed concern about irregularities, he did promptly acknowledge his defeat.

While many in CAR are hoping that the vote will strengthen the country’s tentative peace, after more than two years of sectarian fighting that has left thousands dead and force nearly 500,000 people to flee to neighbouring countries, Touadera does inherit the enormous task of trying to restore order in a country where heavily armed rebel groups continue to control large swathes of territory.

In his first remarks since the provisional results were announced, Touadera stated Sunday that he hoped to make the CAR “united, cohesive and prosperous” while creating jobs and reducing poverty. He further stated that “Central Africans from all regions and religions, we are going to transform our country into a vast worksite offering job opportunities to the youth, creating wealth that can be evenly distributed.” The constitutional court now has a week in order to validate the results.

WHO Declares Zika Virus a Global Health Emergency

The World Health Organization on February 1 declared the mosquito-borne Zika virus an international health emergency due to its links to thousands of birth defects. WHO Director Margaret Chan said that coordinated action was needed to improve detection and expedite work on a vaccine and better diagnostics for the disease. The UN agency is concerned about a surge in cases of microcephaly, a birth defect that causes babies to be born with small heads and underdeveloped brains. Chan said it was strongly suspected that Zika causes microcephaly.

This is the fourth time that the World Health Organization has declared a public health emergency since such procedures were put in place in 2007. Emergency declarations are meant as international SOS and usually brings more money and action to address the outbreak, as well as prompting research into possible treatments and vaccines.

The United Nations health agency said the Zika infection was spreading rapidly and could infect as many as 4 million people in the Americas. According to the Pan American Health Organization, the virus has spread in 24 nations and regions in the Americas.

On January 15, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) advised pregnant woman to postpone travel to more than dozen countries in South America, Central America and the Caribbean to avoid infection with the virus. The agency raised the alert level for travellers to Haiti, El Salvador, Brazil, Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay and Venezuela.

Brazil is experiencing the largest known outbreak of Zika. On January 21, Brazilian health authorities said that the number of babies with microcephaly since October had reached nearly 4.000. The Health Ministry said that the surge was caused by the outbreak of Zika virus. On February 4, President Dilma Rousseff declared war on mosquitoes responsible for spreading the virus. Dilma announced that 220.000 members of the armed forces would go door to door to help to battle the mosquitoes.

Zika virus was first identified in monkeys in Uganda in 1947. The first human case was detected in Nigeria in 1954 and there have been further outbreaks in Africa, East Asia and the Pacific Islands. The most common symptoms of Zika virus are mild fever, conjunctivitis (red, sore eyes), headache, joint pain and rash. There is no vaccine or drug treatment so patients are advised to rest and drink plenty of fluids.