MS Risk Blog

South China Sea Tensions and Territorial Disputes

For the past half century, South China Sea has been an area of tensions and territorial disputes. In 1974, the Chinese seized the Paracels from Vietnam, killing more than 70 Vietnamese troops. In 1988, the same two countries clashed in the Spratlys, with Vietnam again coming off worse, losing about 60 sailors. Ever since, incidents keep happening and have increased in recent year: China’s claims over the islands have become stronger in the past years. The involvement of the United States and the uprising of other regional nations show this conflict is an issue about strength, power and international politics.
What is the argument about?

This dispute is about territory and sovereignty over South China Sea’s islands: the Paracel and the Spratly Islands. Alongside the fully-fledged islands, there are dozens of atolls and sandbanks also disputed. The two main reasons to these conflicts are economic and strategic.

From the economic point of view, the main stake is the fisheries ressources in this part of the sea. Besides meeting the food needs of local populations, it is also long and intensively exploited for export and is currently in a situation of over-exploitation and overfishing.

The other economic issue is a rising one, due to the energetic crisis: the low deposit of oil and gas wihtin the South China Sea. Even though this area is almost uninhabited and uninhabitable, the sovereignty allows the exploitation of the ressources within the exculsive economic zone (EEZ) of 200 nautical miles, according to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) of 1982. Thus, gas, oil and maritime ressources are on of the reason of the territorial dispute.

The South China Sea has also two strategic interests. First it is an important passage for international navigation and freedom of navigation is a contentious issue, especially between the US and China over the right of U.S. military vessels to operate in China’s EEZ. Another reason is linked to the strenghtening of nationalist discourse and identity issues. Indeed, in this region, the conflit for the islands represent the conflict between the countries to ensure a stronger position on the regional chessboard.

Who claims what ?

Ever since the last ten years, tensions increased in this region. The most important claimers are China, Vietnam, Philippines and Malaysia. Shows of strength continually occur in this region and have increased in the last few years.

China, with the largest claim in all the South China Sea keeps occupying some islands in this region along with building artificial islands. The last incident of January 2016 occurred when China landed a plane in an island both claimed by China and Vietnam. Both claims the territory based on historical sovereignty.

The Philippines based its claim on geographical proximity to the Spratly Islands. The Scarborough Shoal (see map below), known as Huangyan Island in China, is a little more than 100 miles from the Philippines and 500 miles from China.

Malaysia is also claiming some islands of the Spratlys but most of the incident in the last decade involved China, Vietnam, Philippines and the United States.

Even though the U.S are not claiming any of the islands, it has an important role in the conflict and many of the incidents occuring in this region are between China and the U.S. Supporting rival countries such as the Philipphines or Vietnam, the U.S has also a military presence in the sea and wants to ensure the freedom of navigation. In reality, the U.S presence is much more about showing strength against China which accelerates its coercitive actions within the region.

Towards resolution: between diplomacy and coercion

For the past ten years, many diplomatic talks failed to solve the territorial disputes in this region. The Asian association might have been one solution to this problem: for economic and regional reasons, China is afraid of a united front of others Asian nation about this issue. But as 2012 and 2015 summits illustrated, ASEAN never came with a common declaration about the South China Sea disputes. China has always warned the Asian states about discussing this subject during the summits and thus, the ASEAN does not seem strong enough to resolve this issue.

The U.S confirms their wish to see this issue solved diplomatically by a settlement. However, they will maintain strength against China as long as tensions remain in the region. They have to types of actions: to ensure direct military present and to bolster capabilities of regional actors. Indeed, for the past years, they have increased military help to Philippines and Vietnam.

The latest change in this dispute happened in October 2015 and will shape the future of this region: the Philippines seized The Hague Court. The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague has declared jurisdiction in certain territorial claims by the Philippines against China on South China Sea disputed areas. China has boycotted the proceedings and denies all authority to the Court in this case but juridiction remains and according to the UNCLOS, the decision will have to be applied by both parties.

Israeli Defense Minister Accuses Turkey of Purchasing IS Oil

Israel’s defense minister has accused Turkey of purchasing oil from the so-called Islamic State (IS) group, thereby funding the militants’ activities.

Speaking in Athens, Greece, Moshe Yaalon disclosed that IS had “enjoyed Turkish money for oil for a very, very long period of time.” Speaking to reporters after a meeting with his Greek counterpart, Mr Yaalon further disclosed that “its up to Turkey, the Turkish government, the Turkish leadership, to decide whether they want to be part of any kind of cooperation to fight terrorism,” adding, “this is not the case so far. As you know, Daesh (Islamic State) enjoyed Turkish money for oil for a very, very long period of time. I hope that it will be ended.” Mr Yaalon also alleged that Turkey had “permitted jihadists to move from Europe to Syria and Iraq and and back.”

Turkey has denied allowing IS smuggling. Recently, the United States also rejected Russian claims that Turkish government officials were in league with the militants. While last month, US State Department officials rejected Russian allegations of Turkish government involvement, a state department spokesman did disclose that IS oil was being smuggled into Turkey via middlemen.

Efforts by Israel and Turkey to repair damaged ties already hit a set back earlier this month over demands for compensation for the deaths of ten Turkish activists on a ship that was carrying pro-Palestinian activists in 2010. They were killed in clashes with Israeli commandos who intercepted a flotilla that was trying to break Israel’s blockade on Gaza. In December, senior Israeli and Turkish officials met in a bid to try to repair relations, raising hopes of progress in negotiations to import Israeli natural gas.

IS has captured swathes of territory in Syria and Iraq, which includes operating oil fields that are now under the militant group’s control.

Islamic Extremists Increase Tempo of Attacks Across Africa

In recent months, the number of deadly attacks carried out by Islamic extremists has increased across Africa, which has prompted questions about the resurgence of armed groups that operate in the region.

Recent Attacks

• 21 January 2016 – Al-Shabaab fighters stormed and took over a beachfront restaurant in Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu. When the siege was over, more than 20 people had been killed in the attack.

• 15 January 2016 – Gunmen stormed a café popular with foreigners in Burkina Faso’s capital, Ouagadougou. They fired at people and set the café ablaze and then attacked a nearby hotel. At least thirty people were killed after a more than 12-hour siege. The North African branch of al-Qaeda, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), claimed responsibility, stating that fighters from al-Murabitoun, an affiliated terror group, had carried out the assault.

• 15 January 2016 – Al-Shabaab gunmen attacked an African Union (AU) base in Somalia, killing an unknown number of Kenyan peacekeepers. Al-Shabaab has since claimed that it killed about 100 Kenyans, adding that they had also captured several soldiers. Kenyan authorities have not released a death toll. Kenya has provided a major contingent to the AU force that is fighting al-Shabaab and assisting the elected government of Somalia.

• 28 December 2015 – Boko Haram Islamic extremists struck a city and a town in northeastern Nigeria with rocket-propelled grenades and multiple suicide bombers. At least eighty people were killed in Maiduguri, the state capital of Borno.

• 20 November 2015 – Islamic extrmeists seized dozens of hostages at the Radisson Blu hotel in Mali’s capital, Bamako. At least twenty people were killed along with two gunmen during the more than seven-hour siege. AQIM and al-Murabitoun claimed responsibility for the attack, stating that it was their first joint attack.

Attacks on Hotels in West Africa Results in Boost to Security

In the wake of the 15 January attack on a hotel in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, hotels across the West African region, from Dakar to N’Djamena, are strengthening security, adding armed guards and increasing cooperation with the local authorities as a pair of high-profile attacks have exposed the growing Islamist threat to foreign travellers.

On Friday 15 January, al-Qaeda fighters killed thirty people at a hotel and restaurant in Ouagadougou, the capital of Burkina Faso. The assaults, which was the country’s first militant attack on such a scale, came just two months after Islamist militants killed twenty people at a Radisson Blu Hotel in neighbouring Bamako, the capital of Mali. Despite intelligence agencies and security experts warning that further such attacks may occur in West Africa, both incidents have demonstrated that militant groups operating in the region are expanding their areas of operations. Furthermore, both attacks likely mark a new strategy by al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and its allies, including al-Murabitoun.

In both instances, the attacks targeted establishments that were popular with Westerners, dozens of whom were taken hostage. Witnesses at the scene of the attack in Ouagadougou also reported that the gunmen singled out white foreigners for execution. In the wake of this growing threat, high-end hotels in major cities across the region have been quick to react. Analysts have warned that Abidjan and Dakar, the largest cities in Ivory Coast and Senegal, are viewed as particularly attractive to Islamist militants because of their large Western expatriate population coupled with a stead flow of tourists and business travellers. However analysts have noted that they have no information on specific threats in either city. This however has not prevented local officials from taking the necessary precautions. At the Sofitel Hotel Ivoire, which is one of Ivory Coast’s most luxurious hotels, uniformed police officers were posted around the grounds. Furthermore, the use of metal detectors and body searches have been increased while guard dogs have been used in order to help patrol the lobby. Meanwhile in Senegal, gendarmes have been deployed at roundabouts and on major streets in neighbourhoods that are popular with Westerners. Well before the attacks in Ouagadougou, Dakar’s Radisson Blu installed additional cameras both inside and outside, ordered vehicle barriers and increased security personnel. According to the hotel’s general manager, Jorgen Jorgensen, “of course, there is always a risk, but I can assure you that we have in place all the precautions to control the building in the most professional way.” In the Chadian capital of N’Djamena, which was hit by deadly attacks by Islamist militants in June and July, the government has called upon hotels to carry out car and body searches as well as increase their collaboration with local authorities.

Al-Shabaab Gunmen Launch Attack on Beach View Cafe in Mogadishu

According to Somali police, late on Thursday, at least twenty people were killed in the Somali capital Mogadishu when five Islamist gunmen set off bombs and stormed a popular beach-front restaurant.

Police officer Osman Nur disclosed Friday that “the operation ended at 3 AM last night and at least 20 civilians were killed.” Somalia’s security minister, Abdirizak Omar Mohamed, reported that four of the gunmen were killed, adding that one was captured alive. Al-Shabaab has since claimed responsibility for the attack, stating that its fighters set off two car bombs at the Beach View Café on Mogadishu’s popular Lido beach, and engaged in a gun battle for hours with government troops trying to flush them out. Police officials have disclosed that al-Shabaab fighters set off the first car bomb at dusk, with witnesses reporting that a huge second blast, which echoed around the city centre, struck about an hour later as government soldiers laid siege to the restaurant. The country’s prime minister urged the public to remain calm and called the attack on a civilian target was a desperate move by a group facing annihilation.

The attack comes a week after al-Shabaab overran an African Union (AU) base near the Kenyan border, saying that they had killed more than 100 Kenyan soldiers and captured a number of them. Kenya has not commented on the toll.