MS Risk Blog

Niger President Faces Run-off in Election

According to provisional results that were released on Friday 26 February, incumbent President Mahamadou Issoufou fell short of an outright majority in the 21 February election, effectively meaning that he now faces a run-off against jailed opposition leader Hama Amadou. Issoufou will bid for a second term on 20 March.

His opponent, a former prime minister, came in second with 17.8 percent compared to Issoufou’s 48.4 percent. The National Electoral Commission has disclosed that turnout was nearly 67 percent. Amadou has been in prison since November 2015 on charges relating to baby-trafficking. He has maintained that he is innocent and a victim of political repression. Critics have reported that Amadou’s imprisonment is part of a crackdown by the Nigerien government over the election season. The government however has stated that it respects the law and that such criticisms are politically motivated.

Following the announcement of the election results, Issoufou congratulated the people of Niger for the peaceful election. Speaking to journalists, he stated, “I also salute my adversaries in the first round and congratulate them for the quality of the debate.”

A coalition of four parties agreed before the election to back the candidate that came second in a bid to defeat Issoufou. Those parties gained a cumulative vote of about 38 percent, through it was unclear which side had an advantage ahead of the second round or how Amadou would campaign from prison.

Myanmar’s New government: What Does It Mean?

Historical background

Myanmar has been a British colony for more than a century. In 1948, Myanmar declared independence and began as a parliamentary democracy. Representative democracy lasted until the military coup of 1962, led by General U Ne Win. His party established a ruling council whose members were almost entirely drawn from the armed forces and held power for the next twenty-six years. In 1990, the junta held elections in which the party National League for Democracy (NLD) won 392 of 485 parliamentary seats. The military government refused to acknowledge the results, imprisoned many NLD politicians, forced others into exile, and continued to clamp down on dissent.

In September 2007, the biggest demonstrations started in Burma: The Saffron Revolution. This event posed a challenge for the junta, as the participating monks—venerated in Myanmar’s majority-Buddhist society—lent a degree of moral authority to the movement. In part driven by international pressure and its own “seven-step roadmap,” the junta announced that a referendum on a new constitution would take place in May 2008, followed by multiparty elections in 2010. In these elections, the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party declared victory, winning 259 of the 330 contested seats. The United Nations and many Western countries have condemned the elections as fraudulent. The NLD, which overwhelmingly won the previous 1990 elections but were never allowed to take power, decided not to participate.

Political System

Since the 2008 Constitution, the legislative power of Myanmar (Pyidaungsu Hluttaw) is based on bicameral Houses: The Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (People’s Assembly) and the Amyotha Hluttaw (House of Nationalities).

The Amyotha Hluttaw is the upper house of the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw, with 12 seats accorded to each Region or State for a total of 168 directly elected seats. Of the 224 seats in the house, the remaining 56 are military appointees nominated by the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services.

The Pyithu Hluttaw is the lower house of the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw, with seats accorded to each of the 330 townships in the country. Of the 440 seats in this body, 330 are directly elected and 110 are military appointees nominated by the Commander-in-Chief of the Defence Services.

To elect the President, each group puts forward a candidate and then the three of them face a vote in a joint session that includes all the elected and unelected representatives of both Houses. The winner becomes president and the two losers vice-presidents.

New Parliament’s challenges

In November 2015, election gave NLD 80% of the seats in both houses; the ruling Union Solidarity Development party (USDP) had taken just 40. According to the 2008 Constitution, the army kept 25% of the seats without any election.

This landslide winning for Aung San Suu Kyi’s party is expected to lead the country through a peace process and a political transition. However, the army keeps a strong power in the transition and the most important stake will be to work with the army. Many expect that Miss Suu Kyi will try to avoid confrontation with the army, and that she will even appoint ministers who worked in the outgoing administration. Indeed, besides the 25% of parliamentary seats, the commander-in-chief, not the civilian president, appoints the heads of the home, defence and border security ministries, giving the military control of Myanmar’s civil service and security apparatus. It might frustrate the NLD’s attempts at reform. The military is unlikely loosen its grip on power so easily despite electoral defeat. Suu Kyi has to wrestle power from the military’s hands whilst ensuring that she remains in charge after the transition, to see the country through its fragile post-election democratic consolidation

Moreover, Aung San Suu Kyi focused partly on a peace process for her country with the numerous ethnic minorities. Since November 2015, she pushed the message of national reconciliation, lauding the choice of representatives from ethnic minorities. She is likely to focus first on ending conflicts involving ethnic minorities living in border areas. For the past decades, tensions and confrontations between army and armed ethnic groups remained in Myanmar. Despite the new parliament formation, a durable political settlement is far from agreed on the difficult issues of equality rights and shared resources.

The new parliament took its seats for the first time in February. Its primary role will be to elect the new president.

Aung San Suu Kyi : next president ?

Myanmar’s president is elected by parliament, not by popular vote. The upper house, the lower house, and the military bloc in parliament put forward one presidential candidate each. The combined houses vote on the three candidates. The winner becomes president and forms a government; the two others become vice presidents.

According to the 2008 Constitution, Aung San Suu Kyi can’t become president despite her leadership in the NDL winning. Indeed, Article 59F of the constitution states that if one of your “legitimate children… owes allegiance to a foreign power” you are disqualified. That covers both Ms Suu Kyi’s sons Kim and Alexander, who have British passports.

To change the Constitution, the NLD needs the support of the unelected army representatives. There are still a few who think that when confronted by the size of the NLD victory the army might change its mind. It’s certainly possible that Ms Suu Kyi might be nominated by her party, even if she didn’t meet the constitutional criteria. Since the November election, the NLD leader has met several times with military representatives to discuss both political transition and her possible election as president. The Parliament has set a deadline of March 17 for the lower and upper house, along with the military bloc, to submit their nominations for the presidency.

Niger Presidential Election – Opposition Calls Fraud as Votes Start to Trickle

On Tuesday, 23 February, opposition parties in Niger rejected initial results from the country’s presidential election, held on 21 February, which showed incumbent Mahamadou Issoufou in the lead. The opposition has called the results fraudulent.

Provisional results released from twenty of the country’s 308 municipalities indicate that Issoufou has so far garnered 40.18 percent of the vote, more than 10 percentage points ahead of his closest rival. Despite claims by the authorities that the vote met “international standards,” Amadou Boubacar Cisse, an election candidate and spokesman for the Coalition for Change group of opposition parties has stated “these results are completely contrary to what was expressed at the ballot box.” The opposition has also accused the Nigerien government of voter intimidation and warned of false results.

On 21 February, Niger closed its land borders and increased security for the election, with on the ground sources reporting that security forces patrolled the cities and villages in case of unrest or militant attacks. Some voters disclosed Sunday that they had never experienced such a tense election. While there were few reports of trouble, security sources did indicate that unidentified armed men attacked two electoral commission vehicles in a rural area about 100 kilometres (60 miles) northwest of the capital city.

Voting on Sunday ended at 7 PM (1800 GMT) after a day of steady turnout, with those voters still queuing allowed to cast their ballots after that time. Voting in the country’s presidential and legislative elections was extended for a second day on Monday, 22 February, in areas where logistical problems prevented the polls from taking place the previous day. Polls on Monday were open in four of the eight regions: the northeastern Tahoua region, and Zinder, Diffa and Tillaberi, in the east, southwest and west respectively. A total of 7.5 million people were eligible to vote across the country. Late on Monday, the heads of observation missions, including the African Union (AU) reported that the 21 February elections took place “in a calm and serene environment.”

In the months leading up to the Niger’s presidential and legislative elections, the climate across the country has been made tense by Islamic extremist and complaints about a crackdown on dissent. For more than a year, the southeastern region of Niger has been targeted by cross-border raids carried out by Nigerian-based extremist group Boko Haram. The attacks and heightened threat have prompted officials to impose a state of emergency in the affected region. Recent high-profile attack carried out by al-Qaeda’s North African branch, AQIM, in the capital of neighbouring Mali and Burkina Faso have further raised fears that the Nigerien capital, Niamey, could be a target.

Further adding to the tensions is that government critics have accused the president of silencing opponents in a bid to stay in office. Critics point to a recent number of arrests of opposition politicians, journalists and a singer who released a song that was critical of incumbent president Issoufou.

Italy Agrees to Let Drones Targeting IS Militants Depart from Sicily

On Tuesday, 23 February, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi disclosed that Italy has agreed to allow armed US drones to take off from an air base in Sicily on a case-by-case basis for defensive missions against Islamic State (IS) militants in North Africa.

In an interview with RTL radio, Prime Minister Renzi disclosed that “if it is a matter of operations against terrorists, against potential Islamic State attackers, there is a close relationship between us and the other allies, above all the Americans.” The Italian prime minister, who has repeatedly stated that is country will not take part in military strikes in Libya without the express request of a recognized government, further disclosed that the defense mission would be authorized “case by case.” While Renzi has said that he prefers a diplomatic response to IS, which has faced US-led air strikes on the caliphate it has proclaimed across swathes of Syria and Iraq since 2014, on Tuesday he noted “but then, if we have proof that there are ‘kamikaze’ attackers preparing potential strikes, naturally Italy will do its part along with all the others.”

Late on Monday, an Italian defense ministry official disclosed that the agreement would effectively allow defensive missions and not offensive action, such as the attack on a suspected militant training camp in Sabratha, Libya that killed dozens last week. The ministry official further indicated that Italy will authorize departures from the Sigonella base near Catania only if each mission’s aim is to protect personnel, adding that so far no request had been made.

Sigonella, which is located in eastern Sicily, is home to a US Naval Air Station as well as a base for the Italian Air force. It is sometimes used for logistical support for American and other NATO forces. The Wall Street Journal has reported that US officials have been trying to persuade Italy to let them conduct such operations from the Sigonella air base for more than a year. It added that US officials are pushing for drones destined for offensive operations like the Sabratha strike to take off from Sicily, however Italian officials have baled at the step over fears of domestic opposition.

After expanding into Syria and Iraq, IS is now exploiting the ongoing chaos in Libya, where two rival government shave been vying for power since Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown in 2011. The militant group is trying to establish bases in the North African state in a bid to conduct raids both in Libya and in neighbouring Tunisia, which has already been affected by IS attacks. On 19 February, the US launched an attack on a base in Sabratha, near the Tunisian border, and targeted Nourredine Chouchane, a Tunisian militant linked to two raids in Tunisia that killed dozens, mostly tourists. The aircraft that carried out that attack took off from a base in Britain.

Tensions Remain High in Uganda in Wake of Presidential Election

 On Saturday, long-time Ugandan leader Yoweri Museveni was declared the winner of the country’s disputed presidential election, with his main rival rejecting the results, stating that they are fraudulent and calling for an independent audit of the country.

According to the final results, which were announced by the election commission, Museveni got more than 60 percent of the votes while his nearest rival Kizza Besigye received 35 percent. While Museveni was re-elected president, at least nineteen of his ministers lost their parliamentary seats. Amongst them was defense minister Crispus Kiyonga, who is spearheading regional efforts to end the political crisis in Burundi, and attorney general Fred Ruhindi. Some 9.7 million Ugandans voted, a turnout of around 63 percent, for president and members of parliament, with 290 assembly seats contested by candidates from 29 political parties. Furthermore, on Monday, election commission spokesman Jotham Taremwa disclosed that Saturday’s election results did not include tallies from at least 1,242 polling stations – effectively about 4 percent of all polling stations. While Taremwa has disclosed that the missing results cannot change the outcome, Besigye’s supporters have noted that they could bring down Museveni’s margin of victory. Museveni needed 50 percent plus one vote in order to avoid a runoff election.

Besigye was under house arrest as Museveni was declared the winner. On the ground sources have reported that heavily armed police were standing guard near his residence, which is located on the outskirts of the capital, Kampala. In a video, Besigye rejected the results, stating, “we knew right from the beginning the electoral commission that was organizing and managing these elections was a partisan, incompetent and discredited body as from the previous elections,” adding, “we knew that the military and security organizations were going to be engaged in a partisan and unfair way like they did in the past.” Besigye urged the international community to reject the official tally. The president’s ruling party, the National Resistance Movement, has urged “all candidates to respect the will of the people and the authority of the electoral commission and accept the result. We ask all Ugandans to remain calm and peaceful and not to engage in any public disruptions.”

While following the announcement of the results, the capital, which has been under a heavy security presence, was calm on Saturday, tensions increased on Monday when police arrested Besigye as he tried to leave his home where he had been confined under house arrest. On the ground sources reported seeing police push Besigye into the back of a blacked-out van and take him away to a police station in a rural area outside the capital. Besigye had been going to the election commission to get detailed copies of results from the presidential elections. Uchenna Emelonye of the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights visited Besigye in the police station, telling reporters shortly after that he “has not been informed, formally or informally, why he is being detained. Polly Namaye, a police spokeswoman, has however disclosed that officers arrested Besigye in order to keep him from “storming the electoral commission with his supporters.”

Thursday’s voting was marred by lengthy delays in the delivery of polling materials. There were also some incidents of violence as well as a government shutdown of social media sites, such as Facebook and Twitter, which remained inaccessible on Saturday. The European Union (EU) observer mission has since reported that the election was marked by an “intimidating atmosphere, which was mainly created by state actors. Speaking to reporters on Saturday, EU mission leader Eduard Kukan stated that Uganda’s election commission lacks independence and transparency and does not have the trust of all the parties. According to the EU’s preliminary report, opposition supporters were harassed by law enforcement officials in more than twenty districts. Former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, the head of the Commonwealth observer mission, also reported that Uganda’s elections “fell short of meeting key democratic benchmarks,” while the US State Department deputy spokesman Mark Toner disclosed that “the Ugandan people deserved better…We encourage those who wish to contest the election results to do so peacefully and in accordance with Uganda’s laws and judicial process, and urge the Ugandan government to respect the rights and freedoms of its people and refrain from interference in those processes.”