MS Risk Blog

Another Wave of Challenges for Greece

Over the past several years, Greece has been increasingly strained by the tens of thousands of migrants reaching its shores. Perhaps more than ever before, Greece could potentially be close to the breaking point. Starting in Sweden and Denmark, governments across Europe have imposed new border restrictions, inadvertently creating a chain-reaction. In mid and late-January, Germany, Austria, Slovenia, Croatia and Serbia announced new restrictions on migrants. Several governments, including Austria, are developing plans to cap the total number of migrants. Almost all the countries recently imposing border restrictions are focusing on original country of origin. The asylum process will increasingly prioritize migrants from conflict areas, particularly Syria. Over this past fall and winter, Macedonia has repeatedly closed important crossings at the Greek border with no warning. One closure on 21 January, for example, resulted in a backlog that took multiple days to clear. When such closures occur, many migrants are left without adequate food or shelter, creating a stressful situation that often results in violence.

The Wall Street Journal has quoted a confidential Bank of Greece report, which estimates the Greek Government could spend 600 million Euros in 2016 assisting migrants. The migrant-related costs could potentially reach 0.3% of Greece’s Gross Domestic Product. The operation of migrant reception centres could constitute 35% of the total cost, followed by search and rescue efforts 26%. Since the beginning of January, the UNHCR has reported that over 74,000 migrants have reached Greece alone. Over the course of 2015, over 821,000 migrants reached Greece, the vast majority doing so in small boats. Greek officials and international observers are expressing concerns that Greece will have to support tens of thousands more migrants in 2016 if border restrictions further north remain in effect. The European Agenda on Migration had been intended to ease the migrant-related pressures faced by the Italian and Greek governments. However, the European Commission announced on 10 February that only 218 migrants had been relocated from Greece. Only 15 European Member-States agreed to participate, providing a total of 1081 places (far below the 66,400 target).

As spring starts to approach, the total number of migrants attempting to reach Europe is anticipated to increase once again. As the European Union struggles to develop a coordinated approach, Greece will remain at the forefront of the migration crisis. Even with European Union and NATO support, it may well be unable to sustain tens of thousands more migrants, especially if many of them cannot travel further into Europe.

From Aleppo to Safety: Turkish Dilemma

Thousands of Syrians, mostly women and children, remain stuck at Turkish borders after fleeing offensive in Aleppo. The U.N. refugee agency, UNHCR, on the 9^th of February 2016 called on Turkey to admit all civilians who are fleeing danger and seeking international protection. Tens of thousands of Syrians escaped intense air strikes in the northern province of Aleppo. Recent months have been dominated by intensive Russian air strikes and attacks on civilians have become a near-everyday occurrence. At least 500 reported killed in the province this month.

Turkey has already taken in more than 2.5 million Syrian refugees over the past five years hosting the largest number of refugees in the world. Its borders are considered the gateway to safety, leaving many stranded across them. The Turkish government has recently expressed frustration over the worsening migrant crisis saying that it has now reached the end of its “capacity to absorb”. Turkey applies strict controls on admission of refugees while maintaining an open door policy for those fleeing immediate harm to their lives.

The United Nations’ refugee agency has called on Turkey to open the border to tens of thousands of Syrian refugees fleeing a government offensive in Aleppo province, who are stranded near the Bab al-Salameh crossing. According to UN officials half of all Syrians have been forced to leave their homes, often multiple times, making Syria the largest displacement crisis globally. More than a quarter million Syrians lost their lives since the onset of the crisis in 2011. Protests escalated into civil war and the armed rebellion led to the rise of Islamists and jihadists, the so-called Islamic State, whose brutal tactics caused global outrage.

Today UK, U.S and Russia are leading air strikes in order to regain rebel parts of the country. Situation is worsening following the intensified Russian air operation in the province of Aleppo, an area divided between government and rebel control for years. Moreover according to ICRC the harshening of winter is pushing people’s resilience to the limits.

The United Nation Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs from March 2012 until February 2016 registered a total of 13.5M Syrians in need of humanitarian assistance; 4.6M fled the country and 6.6M have been displaced within the borders due to violence. Internally displaced the population struggles to survive and they are chasing after charities. The displacement of refugees is across several neighbour countries and Europe.

Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu attended the Informal Meeting of EU Ministers of Foreign Affairs on the 6^th of February 2016. The prime minister, Numan Kurtulmus envisaged a further 600,000 refugees at the borders raising criticism on the Russian tactics. European member states requested immediate steps from Ankara to improve the situation for refugees in Turkey deploying without delay the €3 billion pledged by the European Union.

Turkey is currently under pressure to allow in 30,000 Syrian refugees stranded on its border. Migrants have inflicted a “huge strain” on the country’s economy, and called on the international community to assist Ankara in handling the burgeoning crisis. The main route from the north into Aleppo has been cut off and humanitarian aid cannot be efficiently delivered. The current situation is leading to a severe geopolitical turmoil.

Turkey is facing multiple problems and an internal division. The Russian power play in Syria vanished Turkish hopes for instituting a no-fly zone on the other side of the Syrian border and as Syria burns, Turkey’s Kurdish problem is getting worse. There is an increasing concern that the PYD’s success in Syria will dangerously strengthen the PKK in its fight against Turkey.

The Assad regime received support on the ground by the Iranian militias and the intensified Russian aerial bombardment led the United States to lose control over the entire operation. Within the next weeks the Assad’s bombing campaign will continue costing the lives of many other civilians.

The likelihood of Aleppo becoming the “Sarajevo” of Syria is increasing on a daily basis.

Deadly Clashes in Mexican Prison

Just before midnight on February 10^th riots broke out between two groups of inmates at Topo Chico prison, on the outskirts of Mexico’s industrial powerhouse Monterrey, in the state of Nuevo León. The violent clashes left 49 dead, and 12 injured. On February 11^th family members of inmates protested outside the prison, denouncing the lack of official communication on the welfare of those inside the prison, and the authorities’ slow and uncoordinated response to the deadliest prison riots in recent years.

The clashes were reportedly started by inmates identified as rival factions of Los Zetas. Los Zetas has been engaged in a bloody turf war with the Gulf Cartel since 2010, as well as internecine conflicts within its own factions since the capture of Miguel Angel Treviño Morales (Z-40) in July 2013. The group, that was born out of ex-special forces who deserted the Mexican army and joined the Gulf Cartel in the 1990s, has contributed significantly to high levels of violent crime across the North-East of Mexico since 2010, when it split from the Gulf Cartel.

While the Governor of Nuevo Leon – Jaime Rodriguez “El Bronco” the maverick independent candidate who won the governorship in June 2015 – was quick to confirm that no inmates had escaped during the clashes, he is now facing challenging questions on the state’s failing prison and the authorities’ inability to maintain control against violent groups operating within state facilities.

A report by the National Human Rights Commission in 2014 found Topo Chico to be severely overcrowded, housing more than 4,600 inmates in an area with a maximum capacity of 3,635. Over-crowding and a severe lack of trained prison guards have seen conditions deteriorate in prisons across Nuevo León in recent years, with inmates imposing their own self-rule through violence. Such conditions have facilitated the rise of organised crime groups to continue their turf wars inside state prisons, with the authorities woefully ill-equipped to maintain control.

Mexico’s troubled penitentiary systems have come under the global spotlight in the last year following the sensational escape of the leader of the Sinaloa Cartel, “El Chapo”, from a high-security prison by way of a complex set of underground tunnels in July 2015. These latest riots are another embarrassment to the government as the world media focuses on Mexico ahead of Pope Francis’ five-day visit to the country (Feb 12-17). The Pope has raised uncomfortable issues for many authorities in Mexico as he plans to address the need to fight against systemic violence and corruption that plagues large swathes of the country.

The Pope’s visit includes stops in some of the areas that have been most affected by organised crime related violence, including the once embattled border city of Ciudad Juárez. Authorities in Chihuahua state are hoping to outline the marked improvements in the city’s security environment since its damning label of “world’s most dangerous city” in 2010. The Pope will visit the Cesero 3 prison in Juárez – once a hotbed of inter-cartel violence – and now a supposed “symbol” of a reformed and improved prison. However, the deadly riots at Topo Chico in the neighbouring state, are likely to put a dampener on attempts to showcase improvements in the state prison services amid the ongoing fight against organised crime groups.

French MP’s Vote on Constitution Changes in Wake of Paris Attacks

On Wednesday, French MP’s voted overwhelming to change state-of-emergency provisions in the constitution, which were drawn up after the November 2015 terror attacks in Paris.

The lower house voted 317-199 in order to adopt the package of measures, which includes changes to give a new status under the constitution to the state of emergency, which is currently in force. There were 51 abstentions. The package of measures also allows terror convicts to be stripped of their citizenship. The package will now go to the Senate before a meeting of the joint houses of parliament. It needs support from the Senate and will then have to be approved by a two-thirds vote of a joint session of parliament, which is likely to take weeks or months. Nevertheless, Wednesday’s vote is a significant victory for the French government, which has faced opposition from leading voices, and some from amongst its own ranks. Speaking shortly after the vote, Prime Minister Manuel Valls disclosed that he was “satisfied” with the result and that he was confident that senators would also approve the changes.

In the wake of the 13 November 2015 terror attacks in Paris by gunmen and suicide bombers who targeted a concert hall, a major stadium, restaurants and bars, leaving 130 people dead and hundreds wounded, French President Francois Hollande promised changes as his government seeks to ensure the French people that they are safe, despite growing threats and several previous attacks and thwarted attempts.

Several government officials however are opposed to the new changes. Two weeks ago, France’s left-wing justice minister, Christian Taubira, resigned, citing a “major political disagreement” with the government. She was amongst several political figures who objected to the government’s proposals because they singled out those with dual nationality. Despite the opposition, government whips have indicated that they are confident of a majority in the lower house. However it must be noted that even if they are correct, there is still a long parliamentary battle that lies ahead.

Under the current terms of the state of emergency, which has been in place since 13 November, police are allowed to raid homes and hold people under house arrest. The state of emergency is due to expire on 26 February, however the government wants the powers extended. Under Article 1 of the constitutional reform proposals, MP’s will have to approve a state of emergency beyond twelve days. This rule is already observed, but including it in the constitution is intended to protect it from legal challenges. MP’s have also backed an amendment requiring any extension beyond four months to be referred back to them. On Tuesday, the chamber was only a quarter full during the vote, with 441 deputies absent out of a total of 577. The house later voted through the proposal on nationality however the amendment does not mention dual nationality.

African Forces Begin US-led Counter-Terrorism Training in Senegal

On Monday (8 February), African forces began a US-led counter-terrorism training programme in Senegal, which is aimed at what a US commander said were rising signs of collaboration between Islamist groups across northern Africa and the Sahel region.

The annual “Flintlock” exercises began only weeks after an attack in Burkina Faso’s capital city Ouagadougou, which left thirty people dead. The assault on the hotel used by foreigners raised concerns that militants were expanding from a stronghold in northern Mali, towards stable, Western allies, such as Senegal. Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) fighters claimed responsibility for the attack, which is just one of several increasingly bold regional strikes that have occurred in the Sahel region. Speaking to reporters on Monday, US Commander for Special Operations Command Africa Brigadier General Donald Bolduc indicated that increased collaboration between militant groups effectively meant that they have been able to strengthen and strike harder in the region. According to General Bolduc, “we have watched that collaboration manifest itself with ISIS becoming more effective in North Africa, Boko Haram becoming more deadly in the Lake Chad Basin (and) AQIM adopting asymmetrical attacks…against urban infrastructure.” He further noted that cooperation has increased as the so-called Islamic State (IS/ISIS) group exploited a power vacuum in Libya to expand its self-declared caliphate, which takes up large areas in Syria and Iraq. He added that “we know in Libya that they (AQIM and ISIS) are working more closely together. Its more than just influence, they (AQIM) are really taking direction from them.” He also stressed the importance of regional cooperation and intelligence-sharing, adding that the United States would help Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria set up a joint intelligence center by the middle of next year. The US already supports a regional task force against Nigerian-based terrorist group Boko Haram. However not all security experts agree that there are emerging alliances between Islamist militant groups, with some arguing that competition between groups has led o more attacks.

This year’s programme, which opened on a dusty airstrip in Senegal’s central city of Thies, involves around 1,700 mostly African special operation forces. Western partners are also participating in the programme, including forces from France and Germany, which are amongst more than thirty countries that are participating. The attacks in Ouagadougou, coupled with a hotel attack in the Malian capital of Bamako in November 2015, have led to a greater emphasis on preparing for urban attacks this year through training to increase cooperation between police and military forces. At the request of African partners, this year’s exercises will also include anti-Improvised Explosive Devices (IED) training. The programme, which has been an annual event since 2005, will run from 8 February until 29. Some exercises will also be held in Mauritania.