MS Risk Blog

AQIM Gunmen Launch Attack in Southern Ivory Coast

On Sunday 13 March, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) gunmen launched an attack in Ivory Coast, killing 18 people, including four Europeans, at a beach resort town in the West African country. Six shooters targeted the Chelsea Hotel and Hotel Etoile due Sud, which are located on a beach at the Grand Bassam – popular with westerners and which is located about 40 km (25 miles) east of the commercial capital Abidjan. Witnesses reported that the gunmen followed a pathway onto the beach where they opened fire on swimmers and sunbathers before turning their attention to t he packed seafront hotels where people were eating and drinking at lunchtime. The gunmen were later killed by security forces. Foreign citizens from France, Germany, Burkina Faso, Cameroon and Mali were amongst those killed. Ivorian authorities have launched an investigation into the attack.

According to US-based SITE intelligence monitoring group, AQIM, which has carried out other recent attacks in the region, claimed responsibility for Sunday’s shootings. In a statement, it indicated that the attack had been carried out by just three militants. 

Security Advisory

Sunday’s attack in Ivory Coast comes barely two months after Islamist militants killed dozens of people in a hotel and café frequented by foreigners in neighboring Burkina Faso’s capital city Ouagadougou. In November 2015, gunmen also attacked a hotel in the Malian capital Bamako. Both of these attacks were also claimed by AQIM and raised concern that the militant group was expanding its area of operation far beyond their traditional zones of operation in the Sahara and the arid Sahel region.

While the Ivory Coast was previously untouched by Islamist violence, despite its proximity to countries that have severely been affected, in the wake of the two deadly attacks in Mali and Burkina Faso, analysts warned of further such attacks across the region, including in Ivory Coast. In the wake of the attack in Ouagadougou, Ivory Coast was on high alert, with security visibly bolstered at potential targets, including shopping centres and high-end hotels. While security was also increased in the northern regions of the country, particularly near the borders with Mali in a bid to keep Islamist militants out, Grand Bassam is located in the south on the Atlantic Coast, indicating that the militants have not just cross the border, but may also have a greater presence in the country. It also further demonstrates the capacity of jihadists to blend into the public and strike soft targets.

This threat is spreading across West Africa and will likely result in further similar attacks carried out in other countries in the region. Regional government will now have to focus on increasing their policing, as well as intelligence gathering and will need to act both individually and collectively. This may also result in France increasing its military campaign in the region as it looks to protected its vast and entrenched interests in its former colonies.

Strategic intentions behind the Iranian 2015 JCPOA

Islamic Republic of Iran test-fires ballistic missiles for two consecutive days. In the Alborz Mountains in the northern area of Tehran, on Tuesday 08^th March, a medium range missile was successfully tested covering a range of 750km. The following day at the same lunching site a further test was performed to establish the nation’s longer range capabilities; covering over 1400km, landing in the south-east part of the country. We assess that such range and proved capabilities poses a plausible threat to neighbor’s countries. Missiles are capable of reaching Iran’s archenemy Israel in the event of a potential direct attack. This is causing friction and tensions within the international arena raising questions over the violation of UNSC resolutions and the current nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers.

Since January 2016, Tehran met the demands for implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Despite these developments, Iran presents an enduring threat due to its support to regional terrorist and militant groups and the Assad regime. A key agenda item within the Iranian regime is the development of advanced military capabilities. Tehran views itself as leading the “axis of resistance” which includes the Assad regime and subnational militia groups aligned with Iran, especially Lebanese Hezbollah (considered an international terrorist organization by the U.S.) and Iraqi Shia militants; all antagonist of Israel.

Iran support to the Shia group Hezbollah is of particular interest considering the hardening of the Lebanese current scenario. There are indications arising from recent events of an alleged Hezbollah plan to take over Beirut by purposely bombing the organization’s own munition factories as well as military positions of the Lebanese army. It is believed that Hezbollah in cooperation with forces in the Lebanese army may plan to initiate a wave of attacks against its own facilities in Lebanon which will give it legitimacy to cease Beirut. A clear indicator of the unfolding of this events is the current fighting between opposition and government supporters; on the 9^th of March after a series of armed attacks Hezbollah ceased most of western Beirut.

Iranian long standing position is to undermine Israel; the supreme leader expressed his belief in several occasions by clearly stating that Israel as a country will not exist within the next 25 years. The country wishes Israel to cease existing but there is no gathered evidence of any intentions in engaging into a direct conflict, at least in the medium term.

The JCPOA played the important role of enhancing the transparency of Iran’s nuclear activities. A broader access has been granted to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and other investigative authorities under the Additional Protocol in line with the Comprehensive Safeguard Agreement. As a result, the international community is well postured to promptly detect changes to Iran’s declared nuclear facilities designed to shorten the time Iran would need to produce fissile material. Iran’s implementation of the JCPOA has extended the amount of time Iran would need to produce fissile material for a nuclear weapon from a few months to about a year. Furthermore the JCPOA also provides tools for the IAEA to investigate possible breaches of prohibitions on specific unauthorized R&D.

Iran most likely views the JCPOA as a mean to uplift sanctions while preserving some of its nuclear capabilities and a safe option to eventually expand its nuclear infrastructure. However, it is unclear wheatear or not Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons.

We assess with a moderate degree of confidence that the strategic objectives of implementing and enhancing regional influence, prestige, security, financial and economic ties with several players both domestically and internationally will lead to pursue the required capabilities in the research and development of nuclear energy and technological industry. This will indivertibly confer the ability to build deliverable RCBNs in the event that such political choice will be made. The lack of foreseeable technical barriers within the production process makes Iran’s political will the central issue. The pursuit of this strategy will define its level of adherence to the JCPOA over time.

We judge that, in the event of deploying RCBNs, Tehran would choose ballistic missiles as its preferred delivering system. Tests run in the last days are indicators or proven capabilities in terms of delivery system. The U.S. intelligence community assessed that Tehran already has the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the Middle East and they are inherently capable of delivering WMD.

The country’s desire to deter the United States and its allies provides Tehran with the means and motivation to develop longer-range missiles, including ICBMs. A supplementary area of concern for the global security industry is the Iran’s progress on space launch vehicles. It has been reported to cooperate with Russia and China both technologically and financially in gaining ground in the ongoing outer space race.

The Balkan Migrant Crisis Has Worsened

There has long been a fear that Greece will become the victim of a bottleneck through the Balkans. This often discussed fear has finally become a reality. On March 8, three Balkan nations joined with a growing number of countries imposing increasingly restrictive immigration policies. Slovenia, Serbia and Croatia announced they would only allow people to cross their borders if they already possessed valid visas. This would effectively stop the thousands of migrants in Greece from moving north in an attempt to reach asylum in Germany. Also on March 9, Macedonia announced it would no longer allow migrants to freely enter the country. One report estimated that 13,000-15,000 migrants were currently living in makeshift camps near Greece’s border with Macedonia. Though exact estimates differ, numerous media organizations reported on March 9 that over 35,000 migrants from Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan are currently inside Greece. The number is expected to rise as more migrants land on mainland Greece and islands near the border with Turkey.

This last development puts even greater pressure on Greece. However, it also poses new challenges for other countries in the region. Hungary had seen a drop in migrants attempting to enter the country after it built a border fence and increased penalties for entering illegally. According to the Washington Post, over 2500 people were arrested for attempting to enter Hungary in February (far higher than previous months). Bulgaria and Albania have both increased monitoring are their borders with Greece. The Italian Government is particularly concerned migrants about migrants reaching the Albanian cost and then crossing the Adriatic Sea to Italy. As a result, the two countries announced they would conduct joint military patrols in the Adriatic Sea.

The European Union’s latest attempt to handle the crisis has come under considerable public criticism and legal scrutiny. On March 8, EU and Turkish leaders announced a new plan to return discourage further migrants from attempting the dangerous trip to Greece. The plan indicated that all undocumented migrants arriving in Greece would returned to Turkey. In exchange, the Turkish Government had requested that the EU resettle one Syrian migrant for each returned to Turkey (the so-called ‘one for one’ policy). As part of the plan, the EU also pledged to more quickly implement visa-free travel for Turks and faster approval of a €3 billion Euro aid package. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees has criticised the agreement as a violation of the EU’s international obligations and the European Convention on Human Rights. Even if the plan is not stopped by a legal challenge, it is unclear when it would be fully implemented.

Niger Opposition Announces Withdrawal from Second Round of Voting in Presidential Election

On Tuesday 8 March, Niger’s opposition coalition disclosed that its jailed candidate Hama Amadou will boycott the run-off race against incumbent President Mahamadou Issoufou.

In a dramatic announcement on Tuesday, the opposition’s Seini Oumarou disclosed that “the political opposition untied by COPA 2016 has decided to withdraw from the electoral process under way (and) demand that its representatives withdraw from (national electoral commission) CENI.” Oumarou further complained of “unfair treatment between the two candidates.” He also stated that “there has been no official announcement by the Constitutional Court of the final results of the first round,” adding that the duration of the second-round campaign has been cut from 21 to 10 days in violation of the constitution. The announcement comes as the government has insisted that it will press ahead with the ballot, which is expected to hand the incumbent a second term in office.

During the first round of voting on 21 February, Issoufou, 64, won 48.43 percent of the vote, while his nearest challenger, Amadou, who has been in prison since November 2015 on shadowy baby-trafficking charges that he maintains were concocted, took 17.73 percent. Amadou was forced to campaign from behind bars during the first round and the Court of Cassation must rule on whether to go ahead with his trial, which is due to occur on 23 March, three days after the run-off ballot in the country. The opposition coalition COPA 2016 has accused the government of fraud in the first round, and the official final results of the election have not been announced. A cabinet statement, which was read on state television late on Monday, indicated that the Constitutional Court was holding back the definitive first-round results. The government maintains that the election was “free and transparent,” while the African Union (AU), which sent observers, disclosed that it was generally satisfied with the organization of the vote, despite logistical glitches and delays. While there has so far been no comment from the electoral commission, the government has insisted that the second round would go ahead despite the opposition’s withdrawal. The second-round of voting is due to take place on 20 March.

Italians Kidnapped In Libya Arrive Back In Italy as Reports Surface Over Possible Operation to Rescue Them

On 6 March, two Italians kidnapped last July in Libya returned to Italy amidst growing questions over why two others snatched with them were killed.

Gino Pollicardo, 55, and Filippo Calcagno, 65, were met by relieved relatives at Rome’s Ciampino aiport in the early hours and were whisked away in order to be debriefed by Italy’s foreign ministry and intelligence services. They were amongst four employees of Italian construction company Bonatti who were kidnapped in the Mellitah region west of Tripoli in July.

On Thursday, 3 March, the Italian Foreign Ministry reported that two Italian civilians held hostage might have died in a gun battle that occurred in the western Libyan city of Sabratha. On Wednesday, 2 march, Libyan security forces disclosed that they had killed seven suspected Islamic State (IS) fighters in raid on a military hideout in Sabratha. They later released photographs of two Western men who also apparently died during the attack. In a statement, the Italian Foreign Ministry disclosed that the men might be two of the four employees of Italian construction company Bonatti who were kidnapped in the north African country last July. It named the possible victims as Fasuto Piano, 60, and Salvatore Failla, 47, adding that further checks were being carried out.

On Friday, 4 March, the remaining two Italian civilians were freed, just 48 hours after two fellow captives were allegedly executed by IS militants. The families of Pollicardo and Calcagno confirmed that the pair had been released, with a spokesman for security forces in Sabratha disclosing that the two men were released during a raid early on Friday, adding, “(they) were found alive during a raid by the local fighters against one of the hideouts of Islamic State in Sabratha.

Since their release however Italian media reports have since suggested that all four had been close to being freed, before plans went awry. Italian media reports have indicated that Piano and Failla, who had been separated from Pollicardo and Calcagno, had been in an IS convoy that was attacked by militiamen from Fajr Libya (Libya Dawn), which is the armed wing of the non-recognized government based in Tripoli.

While the murders have increased pressure in Italy for the country to deploy Special forces to Libya, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has cautioned that any intervention would first need parliament’s approval and that Rome would not be rushed. That sentiment was echoed on 6 Mach by Italy’s Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni, who stated in an interview with Il Sole 24 Ore daily that “we need to avoid Libya sinking into chaos where tragic episodes like this one involving our hostages can proliferate.” He noted however that “it must be clear that there are no apparent shortcuts, muscular displays. Its true, time is short, but thee is no quick war at our door,” adding, “the government is aware of the errors of the past and is working to create the conditions for stability in Libya.”