MS Risk Blog

African Union Abandons Plans to Deploy Peacekeepers to Burundi

The African Union (AU) has abandoned its plan to deploy 5,000 peacekeepers to help restore stability to troubled Burundi. Officials have disclosed that they would instead encourage political dialogue between Burundi’s opposing sides. Burundian President Pierre Nkurunziza had fiercely opposed the AU’s plans to deploy peacekeepers. His decision last April to seek a third term in office has led to ongoing violence and fears that Burundi is sliding into ethnic conflict. According to United Nations figures, at least 439 people have died and 240,000 have fled abroad since last April.

The AU could have deployed troops without Burundi’s consent, a clause in its charter effectively allows it to intervene in a member state because of grave circumstances, which include war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity, however it would have been the first time it had done so. Top AU diplomat Ibrahima Fall has disclosed that such a move would have been “unimaginable.” After the bloc’s meeting in Ethiopia, AU Peace and Security Council Chief Smail Chergui stated that “we want dialogue with the government, and the summit decided to dispatch a high-level delegation.”

The announcement comes just days after human rights group Amnesty International published satellite images last week, stating that the images were believed to be five mass graves near Burundi’s capital, where security forces were accused of killing scores of people in December 2015. A fact-finding mission by the AU has reported arbitrary killings, torture and the “closure of some civil society organizations and the media.”

Timeline of Events

• April 2015: Protests erupt after President Pierre Nkurunziza announces that he will seek a third term in office.
• May 2015: Constitutional court rules in favor of Mr Nkurunziza, amidst reports of judges being intimidated. Tens of thousands flee violence amidst protests.
• May 2015: Army officers launch a coup attempt, which ultimately fails.
• July 2015: Elections are held, with Mr Nkurunziza re-elected. The polls are disputed, with opposition leader Agathon Rwasa describing them as “a joke.”
• November 2015: Burundi government gives those opposing President Nkurunzia’s third term five days in order to surrender their weapons ahead of a promised crackdown.
• November 2015: UN warns it is less equipped to deal with violence in Burundi than it was for the Rwandan genocide.
• December 2015: 87 people killed on one day as soldiers respond to an attack on military sites in Bujumbura.
• January 2016: Amnesty International publishes satellite images which it says are believed to be mass grave located close to where December’s killings took place.

Possible Mass Graves Detected Near Burundian Capital

On Friday, Amnesty International reported that new satellite images, video footage and witness accounts show that dozens of people killed by Burundian security forces in December 2015 were later buried in mass graves.

The rights group has reported that there are five possible mass graves in the Buringa area, which is located on the outskirts of the Burundian capital, Bujumbura. A statement released by Amnesty disclosed that “the imagery, dating from late December and early January, shows disturbed earth consistent with witness accounts. Witnesses told Amnesty International that graves were dug on the afternoon of 11 December, in the immediate aftermath of the bloodiest day of Burundi’s escalating crisis.” According to Amnesty, witnesses described how police and local officials scoured Nyakabiga and other neighborhoods in Bujumbura in a bid to retrieve the bodies of those who were killed and took them to undisclosed locations. The latest report on such mass graves comes after UN human rights chief Zeid Raad al-Hussein earlier this month called for an urgent investigation into the alleged existence of mass graves following the violence that erupted in December. At the time, he cited “large-scale human rights violations,” stating that the “increasing number of enforced disappearances, coupled with allegations of secret detention facilities and mass graves is extremely alarming.” The Burundian government however has dismissed these allegations, stating that they are based on false information that was supplied by the regime’s opponents who fled into exile. Government spokesman Philippe Nzobonariba has stated that the US is free to go to Burundi and investigate the allegations, which he said were intended to portray Burundi as being a dangerous country.

On 11 December, in coordinated attacks, gunmen stormed three military installations in Burundi. The following day, 28 people were found shot dead in three neighborhoods in the capital city. An eyewitness reported at the time that some of the dead had their hands tied behind their backs, with another witness blaming government security forces and stating that they went after the victims in door-to-door searches.

President Pierre Nkurunziza’s decision to seek re-election last April touched off street protests that led to a failed coup in May and a rebellion which has left the country on the brink of civil war. Opponents and supporters of the president have been targeting each other in gun, rocket and grenade attacks, with the violence spreading beyond the capital city and into the provinces.

South China Sea Tensions and Territorial Disputes

For the past half century, South China Sea has been an area of tensions and territorial disputes. In 1974, the Chinese seized the Paracels from Vietnam, killing more than 70 Vietnamese troops. In 1988, the same two countries clashed in the Spratlys, with Vietnam again coming off worse, losing about 60 sailors. Ever since, incidents keep happening and have increased in recent year: China’s claims over the islands have become stronger in the past years. The involvement of the United States and the uprising of other regional nations show this conflict is an issue about strength, power and international politics.
What is the argument about?

This dispute is about territory and sovereignty over South China Sea’s islands: the Paracel and the Spratly Islands. Alongside the fully-fledged islands, there are dozens of atolls and sandbanks also disputed. The two main reasons to these conflicts are economic and strategic.

From the economic point of view, the main stake is the fisheries ressources in this part of the sea. Besides meeting the food needs of local populations, it is also long and intensively exploited for export and is currently in a situation of over-exploitation and overfishing.

The other economic issue is a rising one, due to the energetic crisis: the low deposit of oil and gas wihtin the South China Sea. Even though this area is almost uninhabited and uninhabitable, the sovereignty allows the exploitation of the ressources within the exculsive economic zone (EEZ) of 200 nautical miles, according to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) of 1982. Thus, gas, oil and maritime ressources are on of the reason of the territorial dispute.

The South China Sea has also two strategic interests. First it is an important passage for international navigation and freedom of navigation is a contentious issue, especially between the US and China over the right of U.S. military vessels to operate in China’s EEZ. Another reason is linked to the strenghtening of nationalist discourse and identity issues. Indeed, in this region, the conflit for the islands represent the conflict between the countries to ensure a stronger position on the regional chessboard.

Who claims what ?

Ever since the last ten years, tensions increased in this region. The most important claimers are China, Vietnam, Philippines and Malaysia. Shows of strength continually occur in this region and have increased in the last few years.

China, with the largest claim in all the South China Sea keeps occupying some islands in this region along with building artificial islands. The last incident of January 2016 occurred when China landed a plane in an island both claimed by China and Vietnam. Both claims the territory based on historical sovereignty.

The Philippines based its claim on geographical proximity to the Spratly Islands. The Scarborough Shoal (see map below), known as Huangyan Island in China, is a little more than 100 miles from the Philippines and 500 miles from China.

Malaysia is also claiming some islands of the Spratlys but most of the incident in the last decade involved China, Vietnam, Philippines and the United States.

Even though the U.S are not claiming any of the islands, it has an important role in the conflict and many of the incidents occuring in this region are between China and the U.S. Supporting rival countries such as the Philipphines or Vietnam, the U.S has also a military presence in the sea and wants to ensure the freedom of navigation. In reality, the U.S presence is much more about showing strength against China which accelerates its coercitive actions within the region.

Towards resolution: between diplomacy and coercion

For the past ten years, many diplomatic talks failed to solve the territorial disputes in this region. The Asian association might have been one solution to this problem: for economic and regional reasons, China is afraid of a united front of others Asian nation about this issue. But as 2012 and 2015 summits illustrated, ASEAN never came with a common declaration about the South China Sea disputes. China has always warned the Asian states about discussing this subject during the summits and thus, the ASEAN does not seem strong enough to resolve this issue.

The U.S confirms their wish to see this issue solved diplomatically by a settlement. However, they will maintain strength against China as long as tensions remain in the region. They have to types of actions: to ensure direct military present and to bolster capabilities of regional actors. Indeed, for the past years, they have increased military help to Philippines and Vietnam.

The latest change in this dispute happened in October 2015 and will shape the future of this region: the Philippines seized The Hague Court. The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague has declared jurisdiction in certain territorial claims by the Philippines against China on South China Sea disputed areas. China has boycotted the proceedings and denies all authority to the Court in this case but juridiction remains and according to the UNCLOS, the decision will have to be applied by both parties.

Israeli Defense Minister Accuses Turkey of Purchasing IS Oil

Israel’s defense minister has accused Turkey of purchasing oil from the so-called Islamic State (IS) group, thereby funding the militants’ activities.

Speaking in Athens, Greece, Moshe Yaalon disclosed that IS had “enjoyed Turkish money for oil for a very, very long period of time.” Speaking to reporters after a meeting with his Greek counterpart, Mr Yaalon further disclosed that “its up to Turkey, the Turkish government, the Turkish leadership, to decide whether they want to be part of any kind of cooperation to fight terrorism,” adding, “this is not the case so far. As you know, Daesh (Islamic State) enjoyed Turkish money for oil for a very, very long period of time. I hope that it will be ended.” Mr Yaalon also alleged that Turkey had “permitted jihadists to move from Europe to Syria and Iraq and and back.”

Turkey has denied allowing IS smuggling. Recently, the United States also rejected Russian claims that Turkish government officials were in league with the militants. While last month, US State Department officials rejected Russian allegations of Turkish government involvement, a state department spokesman did disclose that IS oil was being smuggled into Turkey via middlemen.

Efforts by Israel and Turkey to repair damaged ties already hit a set back earlier this month over demands for compensation for the deaths of ten Turkish activists on a ship that was carrying pro-Palestinian activists in 2010. They were killed in clashes with Israeli commandos who intercepted a flotilla that was trying to break Israel’s blockade on Gaza. In December, senior Israeli and Turkish officials met in a bid to try to repair relations, raising hopes of progress in negotiations to import Israeli natural gas.

IS has captured swathes of territory in Syria and Iraq, which includes operating oil fields that are now under the militant group’s control.

Islamic Extremists Increase Tempo of Attacks Across Africa

In recent months, the number of deadly attacks carried out by Islamic extremists has increased across Africa, which has prompted questions about the resurgence of armed groups that operate in the region.

Recent Attacks

• 21 January 2016 – Al-Shabaab fighters stormed and took over a beachfront restaurant in Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu. When the siege was over, more than 20 people had been killed in the attack.

• 15 January 2016 – Gunmen stormed a café popular with foreigners in Burkina Faso’s capital, Ouagadougou. They fired at people and set the café ablaze and then attacked a nearby hotel. At least thirty people were killed after a more than 12-hour siege. The North African branch of al-Qaeda, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), claimed responsibility, stating that fighters from al-Murabitoun, an affiliated terror group, had carried out the assault.

• 15 January 2016 – Al-Shabaab gunmen attacked an African Union (AU) base in Somalia, killing an unknown number of Kenyan peacekeepers. Al-Shabaab has since claimed that it killed about 100 Kenyans, adding that they had also captured several soldiers. Kenyan authorities have not released a death toll. Kenya has provided a major contingent to the AU force that is fighting al-Shabaab and assisting the elected government of Somalia.

• 28 December 2015 – Boko Haram Islamic extremists struck a city and a town in northeastern Nigeria with rocket-propelled grenades and multiple suicide bombers. At least eighty people were killed in Maiduguri, the state capital of Borno.

• 20 November 2015 – Islamic extrmeists seized dozens of hostages at the Radisson Blu hotel in Mali’s capital, Bamako. At least twenty people were killed along with two gunmen during the more than seven-hour siege. AQIM and al-Murabitoun claimed responsibility for the attack, stating that it was their first joint attack.