MS Risk Blog

South Sudan’s Road to Peace

On Tuesday, 26 April, South Sudan’s rebel chief Riek Machar finally returned to the capital Juba, where he was sworn in as vice president of a unity government that was formed in order to end more than two years of civil war in the world’s newest country. His return, which was delayed by a week, is seen as a critical step towards cementing a fragile peace agreement that was brokered in August 2015.

The conflict in South Sudan, which won independence from Sudan in 2011, has pitted government troops loyal to President Salva Kiir against those of Machar, who was dismissed as vice president five months before the war began in December 2013. Tens of thousands have been killed and more than two million people forced from their homes.

Key Events in the War

2013

• 15 December – Heavy gunfire erupts in Juba, where tensions have been rising since July when Machar was dismissed as vice president.   Kiir blames Machar for an attempted coup, however Machar denies this and accuses the president of purging his rivals. Fighting spreads and rebels seize control of key towns.

2014

• 10 – 20 January – Uganda sends troops to back Kiir. Government troops recapture the northern city of Bentiu, capital of the oil-rich Unity State, and Bor, the capital of the eastern state of Jonglei.
• 15 – 17 April – According to the United Nations, more than 350 civilians are killed in Bentiu and Bor.
• 26 August – A UN helicopter is shot down, with three onboard killed. Each side blames the other.

2015

• 1 February – Kiir and Machar sign a new agreement to end the fighting, in what is the latest in a series of deals. However like the others, it is broken within days.
• 30 June – According to a UN rights report, South Sudan’s army raped then torched girls alive inside their homes. The report warns of “widespread human rights abuses.” Rebels have been accused of similar atrocities.
• 2 July – UN and US sanctions decided against six leaders from both sides.
• 17 August – Machar signs a peace agreement in Addis Ababa.
• 26 August – Kiir signs the peace accord, however he issues a list of “serious reservations.” Fighting continues.
• 3 October – Kiir nearly triples the number of regional states, undermining a key power-sharing clause of the peace agreement.
• 28 October – African Union investigators list atrocities committed, which include forced cannibalism and dismemberment.
• 5 November – UN experts warn that killings, rapes and abductions continue and that both sides are stockpiling weapons. Over two dozens armed groups are involved in fighting characterized by shifting alliances, opportunism and historic grievances.
• 27 November – The UN reports that some 16,000 children have been forced to fight, amidst a growing humanitarian crisis. More than 2.8 million people, almost a quarter of the population, needs emergency food aid.

2016

• 8 February – UN agencies warn that at least 40,000 people are being starved to death in the war zone, with rival forces blocking aid.
• 12 February – Kiir reappoints Machar as vice president.
• 11 April – A 1,370-strong rebel force completes their arrival in Juba ahead of Machar’s expected return.
• 12 April – South Sudan’s rebel deputy chief Alfred Ladu Gore arrives in the capital.
• 25 April – South Sudan’s top rebel military commander Simon Gatwech Dual returns to the capital.
• 26 April – Machar returns to Juba and is sworn in as vice president. UN Security General Ban Ki-moon calls for a new unity government to be set up immediately.

Violence in Burundi Significantly Increases in April

On Wednesday, the United Nations human rights chief disclosed that 31 people have been killed in attacks in Burundi this month, decrying an increase in violence in the East African country.

In a statement, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad al Hussein disclosed that “some 31 people have been killed in attacks so far in April, compared to a total of nine people in the last month.” He added, “I fear that the increasing number of targeted assassinations will inevitably exacerbate the already extremely dangerous spiral of violence and unrest in Burundi.”

In the latest incident, which occurred Monday 25 April, gunmen killed a brigadier general who was a senior adviser to the vice president.

Tit-for-tat attacks between President Pierre Nkurunzia’s security forces and his opponents escalated a year ago when he announced a disputed bid for a third term in office, a bid that he went on to win in July. The UN has disclosed that more than 400 people have been killed since then and more than 250,000 have fled the country. Earlier this week, the International Criminal Court (ICC) announced that it would investigate the ongoing violence in Burundi.

France to Seek State of Emergency Extension to Cover Euro 2016 Football Tournament

French Prime Minister Manuel Valls has disclosed that the French government plans to extend a state of emergency, which was initially imposed in the wake of the 13 November 2015 attack in Paris, to cover the Euro 2016 football tournament, which the country will host in June.

During a radio interview, the Prime Minister indicated that given the scale of the event, security has to be ensured. He confirmed that Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve will seek other minister’s approval of the extension later on Wednesday 20 April before asking parliament to vote on it, adding “the state of emergency cannot be permanent, but on the occasion of these big events…we have to prolong it.”

The European football competition involves twenty-four national teams and will run from 10 June to 10 July. The proposed two-month extension, which would also cover the Tour de France bicycle race, however will require parliamentary approval. The current state of emergency, which gives police additional powers to carry out searches and place people under house arrest, runs until 26 May. Despite concerns raised by rights groups, who reported that police had abused their powers the state of emergency was extended for an additional three months in February.

The coordinated gun and bomb attacks in Paris in November killed 130 people and were claimed by the so-called Islamic State (IS) group. The Stade de France football stadium, which will host the opening match of Euro 2016 and the final, was targeted by suicide bombers.

Security will be tight at the Euro 2016 tournament, with more than 1,200 security officials deployed for matches at the Stade de France, and an average of 900 across all stadiums in France. On Friday, 15 April, Mr Cazeneuve disclosed that more than 3,500 searches and 400 arrests have been carried out since the state of emergency was first imposed in November.

Olympic Torch Lit as Countdown to Rio Games Begins

The flame for the Summer Olympic Games, which will be hosted by Brazil, has been lit in southern Greece.

During Thursday’s ceremony, actor Katerina Lehou performed the role of high priestess lit the torch by using the sun’s rays, offering a mock prayer to Apollo, the old Greek god of light and music. She lit the torch within a few seconds by using a concave mirror to catch the sunlight. She then delivered the flame to Greek world gymnastics champion Eleftherios Petrounias, the first runner in the torch relay. The ritual, which was established eighty years ago for the Berlin Games, is based on a ceremony in Ancient Olympia where games were held for more than 1,000 years.

The torch will be taken to various runners on an international relay that will culminate at the opening ceremony in Maracana Stadium in Rio de Janeiro on 5 August. The chief organizer of the Games, Carlos Nuzman, has promised to “delivery history,” stating that the Olympics would unit Brazil, which is beset by political and economic crises. Brazil President Dilma Rousseff was forced to cancel her trip to ancient Olympia because of the impeachment threat that she faces.

According to the International Olympic Committee (IOC), before the flame arrives in South America, it will begin a six-day relay across Greece, passing through the town of Marathon, which gave its name to the long distance race, as well as a camp for refugees and migrants in Athens. The flame is due to arrive in Brazil on 3 May for a 100-day relay across the country. It will travel through 500 cities and villages in every Brazilian state and will be carried by about 12,000 torch bearers.

Gulf Coalition retakes Yemeni port, oil terminal, from al Qaeda

26 April—On Monday, allied Yemeni and Emirati forces retook Ash Shihr terminal, Yemen’s largest oil export terminal from al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). The move comes a day after forces swept the militant group from their nearby stronghold in the port city of Mukalla, capital of the Hadramawt province.

The air strikes were carried out in coordination with a ground offensive in militant-controlled territory further west. Statements released by coalition officials said that nearly 2,000 Yemeni and Emirati troops advanced into Mukalla, taking control of its maritime port and airport, and setting up checkpoints.

The coalition also stated that 800 al Qaeda members were killed in the battle to retake the city and the oil terminal. Yet contrary to this statement, residents in the region said that the number killed was unlikely, adding that the group withdrew largely without a fight. One military officer said, “We entered the city centre and were met by no resistance from al-Qaeda militants who withdrew west.” Residents say that local clerics and tribesmen had been in talks with the group to exit quietly. It is believed that the fighters withdrew to the neighbouring Shabwa province.

The recapture of this area is a big win for coalition forces. Ash Shihr terminal, closed since its capture by AQAP fighters in 2015, is the export site for nearly 80% of Yemen’s oil reserves. Nearby Mukalla port, however, has remained open, and reports indicate that AQAP was pocketing around $2 million a day in customs revenues.

The advances against the militant group are indicative of a shift within the Saudi-led coalition. For the past year, the coalition has targeted the Houthi rebels, a group which captured the Yemeni capital of Sana’a and caused the government to go into exile, ultimately moving administrative operations to Aden. However, a tenuous ceasefire has been in place between the coalition and the rebel group since 11 April. The coalition has used the truce to target Al Qaeda strongholds in the region.  The militant group, considered one of the most active and dangerous branches of Al Qaeda, had taken advantage of the power vacuum to develop a mini-state around Mukalla.

The coalition is now advancing on AQAP-held towns along the 370-mile coastline between Mukalla and Aden. It appears that militants are seeking to mount a stronger resistance in the region. The push against AQAP is being led by the United Arab Emirates, which has been training and arming local recruits for several months.

Yemen’s civil war has killed more than 6,200 people, displaced more than 2.5 million people. It has caused a humanitarian catastrophe in one of the world’s poorest countries. UN brokered peace talks between the Yemeni government and Houthi rebels are currently underway in Kuwait. Al Qaeda has not been invited to participate.