MS Risk Blog

Belgian Police Alerted to IS Fighters En Route to Europe

Reports have emerged that Belgian police have received an anti-terror alert warning that a group of Islamic State (IS) fighters recently left Syria, en route foe Europe planning to carry out attacks in Belgium and neighbouring France.

The Belgian crisis centre, which is in charge of coordinating security responses, has reported that an alert had been circulated to all police forces in the country. The centre however has noted that there are no immediate plans to raise the security level to the maximum, which would effectively indicate an imminent threat of an attack.

Newspaper DH quoted the alert from Belgium’s anti-terror cell as stating that the group “left Syria bout a week and a half ago aiming to reach Europe via Turkey and Greece by boat without passports.” The alert however did not give an exact departure date. The contents of the alert have been confirmed by a Belgian security source. DH has also reported that the fighters were armed and aimed to split into two units, one aiming to carry out attacks in Belgium while the other in France. Potential targets in Belgium included a shopping centre, a fast-food restaurant and a police station. The newspaper mentioned no specific targets in France, which is currently hosing the Euro 2016 football championships in ten stadiums across the country. The tournament will go until 10 July, with some 2.5 million spectators expected to watch the 51 games.

A source at France’s Interior Ministry has also disclosed that Belgian authorities had transmitted a note to their French counterparts, who are currently reviewing the information in the alert, adding, “we know the threat is very high…We’re reviewing all th elements (in the alert).” Speaking at a news conference, French government spokesman Stephane Le Foll disclosed “we know there are fighters who are coming back (to Europe),” adding that he could not confirm the specific alert from Belgium.

The alert comes just two days after an attack, who pledged allegiance to IS, killed a French police commander and his partner at their home outside Paris, and four days after a gunman declaring loyalty to IS massacred 49 people in a gay nightclub in Orlando, Florida.

European Leaders Call for Britons to Remain in EU

Anxious European leaders have issued a number of calls to Britons to stay in the European Union (EU) rather than to risk years of economic damage, however the prime minister whose country will chair the EU from July has stated that it must prepare for a Brexit.

From German Chancellor Angela Merkel, to the heads of the EU institutions in Brussels and the man who forged the modern EU, Jacques Delors, they said that remaining in the EU would be better for Britain and Europe. While they are aware that outside pressure may be counterproductive, they all stressed that it was for voters to decide. While most European leaders have previously muted appeals to the British for fear of being counter productive, a swing towards Brexit in opinion polls a week before the 23 June referendum has sparked deep concern about the impact on the EU, effectively prompting a greater readiness to warn Britons of the harsh consequences.

Chancellor Merkel, who did her best in order to help British Prime Minister David Cameron negotiate a special status deal for Britain in February, has stated that the UK could be shut out of the prized single market on which its large financial services sector is heavily reliant. She stated that “if Britain votes to leave the EU, it will no longer be able to benefit from the advantages of the European common market,” adding that any negotiation of future terms of access would start with Britain bong on the outside. She noted, “I can’t imagine that would be any kind of advantage…But the decision is ultimately up to the Britons.”

While finance ministers from the nineteen EU countries that use the euro currency met on 16 June in Luxembourg, their chairman, Dutch minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, stating that they would not discuss any contingency plans for Brexit. While he acknowledged concern about the British vote, he stated that there was no “Plan B” to deal with it, adding that he was confident that Britons would vote to remain in the EU. That confidence however is not widely shared in Brussels, especially in the past two weeks as polls have swung towards Brexit. One senior diplomat has stated, “we are approaching the point of no return. Brexit is now a visible scenario…We are talking, loudly but not in public. But there is nothing we can do.”

Robert Fico, the outspoken prime minister of Slovakia, who met with Merkel on Thursday, has also indicated that he thinks Britain will vote to leave. He stated, “if you’re watching football and your team is three behind in the 90^th minute of the game, its unlikely that there will be a turnaround and that suddenly you will win.” His country’s six-month presidency of the EU begins in July, and would effectively give Slovakia some role in the start of negotiations with a Britain set on leaving the EU. Fico has warned that the polls shows that it is now time to be “realistic” about preparing for that eventuality.

While European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, the Union Chief executive, told a questioner at an economic form in Russia that Brexit would not put “the EU in danger of death” he has cautioned against a rise of euro-scepticism across Europe. And like European Council President Donald Tusk, who chairs EU summits, Juncker warned that a Leave vote would unleash “major uncertainty.” Tusk, a former Polish prime minister, made one of his most impassioned calls yet for Britons to stay, saying, “Europe without the United Kingdom will be distinctly weaker. This is obvious. Equally obvious is that the UK outside the EU will be distinctly weaker too,” warning that Brexit would bring “seven years of limbo and uncertainty in our relations.”

Juncker’s distant predecessor from 1985 – 1995, Jacques Delors, has also issued a statement in a bid to dispel rumours that he favoured a Brexit to let other states to integrate further. The architect of the euro single currency stated, “I consider the UK’s participation in the European Union to be a positive element both for the British and for the Union.”

The Islamic State Group in Libya (2014 – Present)

On 9 June, unity government force surrounded the so-called Islamic State (IS) group’s Libyan bastion Sirte, where clashes have erupted as the Unity Government attempts to oust the militant group. The jihadist group, which moved into the North African country in 2014 amidst chaos that followed the ouster of Moamer Kadhafi, has become yet another player in the lawless country, where rival authorities and militas are battling for control of territory and major oil reserves.

2014

• 19 November – The United States indicates that it is “concerned” by reports that radical extrmeists with avowed ties to IS are destabilizing eastern Libya, after having already seized vast swathes of territory in Iraq and Syria.   News reports emerge indicated that the eastern coastal city of Derna is emerging as an IS stronghold.
• 27 December – A car bomb explodes outside the diplomatic security building in the capital city Tripoli. The attack, which is claimed by IS, causes no casualties.

2015

• 27 January – IS claims responsibility for an attack on Tripoli’s luxury Corinthia Hotel that kills nine people.
• 15 February – IS releases a video showing the beheading of 21 Coptic Christians, all but one Egyptians, that the jihadist say they filmed in January. Egypt carries out air strikes on IS in Derna
• 20 February – IS claims responsibility for suicide car bombings in Al-Qoba, which is located near Derna. Those attacks kill 44 people, with IS stating that the attacks are to avenge losses in the air strikes.
• 19 April – A new video depicts the execution-style killing of 28 Christians originally from Ethiopia.
• 9 June – IS announces that it has captured the city of Sirte, which is located east of Tripoli.
• 12 July – The group acknowledges that it has been pushed out of Derna after weeks of fierce fighting with members of the town’s Mujahedeen Council.
• 13 November – The US bombs IS leaders in Libya for the first time and states that it has killed Abu Nabil, an Iraqi also known as Wissam Najm Abd Zayd al-Zubaydi. Libyan officials later identify him as the head of IS in Derna.

2016

• 7 January – A suicide truck bombing at a police school in Zliten, east of Tripoli, kills more than fifty people in what is the worst attack to take place in Libya since the 2011 revolution. IS claims responsibility for the attack.
• 5 February – US officials disclose that the number of jihadists has almost doubled in Libya to about 5,000.
• 19 February – A US air strike on a jihadist training camp located near Sabratha, west of Tripoli, kills about fifty people.
• 24 February – Some 200 jihadists briefly occupy the centre of Sabratha, however they are later ousted by militas.
• 30 March – The head of Libya’s United Nations-backed unity government, Fayez al-Sarraj, arrives at a naval base in Tripoli, despite the hostility of rival authorities.
• 31 May – UN special envoy Martin Kobler calls on all of Libya’s armed groups to untie against IS.
• 4 June – Unity government forces say that they have retaken a jihadist air base, Al-Gordabyia, which is located south of Sirte.
• 5 June – Sarraj rules out an international military intervention on the ground.
• 9 June – Unity government forces enter the centre of Sirte where clashes continue with IS.

WHO To Meet Over Zika Concerns as Rio Olympic Games Approach

A World Health Organization (WHO) spokesman has disclosed that the WHO’s Emergency Committee on Zika will meet in the coming weeks in order to evaluate the risks tied to going on with the Olympic Games in Brazil in August. The meeting comes as the debate grows over the safety of holding the Olympics in the South American country amidst the ongoing Zika virus outbreak.

According to WHO spokesman Nyka Alexander, “the Emergency Committee meeting will consider the situation in Brazil, including the question of the Olympics,” noting that while the WHO will make risk assessments of a public health issue, it will ultimately be up to the International Olympic Committee (IOC) to decide on holding the event in Rio de Janeiro, which is due to begin on 5 August. A spokesman for Rio 2016 has disclosed that officials are continuing to follow WHO recommendations on Zika.

Dr David Heymann, chairman of the WHO committee of independent experts, has disclosed that postponing the Rio Olympics over fears that it could speed the spread of the Zika virus would give a “false” sense of security because travellers are constantly going in and out of Brazil. WHO experts have also indicated that because it will be winter in Brazil when the Olympics begin, mosquitoes that carry the virus will be less abundant.

At the beginning of June, a public letter was signed by 150 public health experts and scientists calling for the Olympics to be delayed or moved over concerns that the Games could speed up the global spread of the Zika virus. However top US officials agreed with WHO experts that Zika did not pose enough of a risk to postpone or move the Olympics. According to Dr Tom Frieden, director of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, travel to the Olympics would represent less than one quarter of 1 percent of all travel to Zika-affected areas, adding that the risk was low except for pregnant women.

While athletes will have to make their own decisions as to whether to risk Zika for the potential globally of Olympic gold, some athletes have already withdrawn from the competition.

Hundreds Arrested in Northern Venezuela for Looting in Food Shortage

Venezuelan police have arrested more than 400 people in the city of Cumana after street looting over food shortages. Over 100 shops were hit and at least one person died during the incidents. Another death was also reported in the state of Merida from unrest which is breaking out sporadically across the country. Local authorities said that these incidents were inspired by a right-wing faction within the country’s opposition.

Food and medicine are in short supply and street protests and lootings have increased drastically. According to the Venezuelan Observatory of Violence, a local monitoring group, more than 10 incidents of looting are occurring daily across the nation of 30 million people, which is suffering a deep recession and the world’s highest rate of inflation at 180%. Roberto Briceno Leon, director of the Venezuelan Observatory of Violence, said the lootings were going to continue because there was hunger. Briceno Leon also said that the government’s response was insufficient and politicized, so people were resorting to robbery.

Earlier this month, Venezuelan security forces fired teargas at protesters chanting “We want food!” near Caracas’ presidential palace. Hundreds of Venezuelans heading for Miraflores palace in downtown Caracas were met by National Guard and police who blocked a major road. President Nicolas Maduro had been scheduled to address a rally nearby.

Venezuela is also facing a severe electricity shortage. In April, President Nicolas Maduro decided to shorten the workweek to two days in an effort to save energy and electricity. El Guri dam, the country’s most important source of electricity, has record-low water levels.

Venezuela’s political opposition says President Nicolas Maduro and his predecessor Hugo Chavez are to blame for failed economic policies. The opposition is pursuing a recall referendum this year in an effort to remove President Maduro from office. Last Tuesday, Venezuelan police fired rubber bullets and tear gas grenades at students from the public Central University of Venezuela in Caracas, who demonstrated in demand of a referendum on removing Maduro.

But the government says the shortages are part of an economic war being waged to drive President Nicolas Maduro from office. Government officials say there is not enough time this year to organise a referendum. To avoid the threat of unrest associated with long food lines, the government has assigned neighbourhood committees linked to the ruling socialist party to distribute food. The move has angered the opposition, who equate it to an attempt to force loyalty among Venezuelans.