MS Risk Blog

Security Advisory: Venezuela (17 May 2016)

Executive Summary

President Nicolas Maduro has called a constitutional state of emergency in Venezuela in the face of the country’s severe economic crisis and ongoing social and political protests. MS Risk is closely monitoring the situation on the ground and has consultants in place to provide emergency evacuation services or security risk advice to travellers and personnel should the situation further deteriorate.

Situation

During the weekend May 15-16 significant demonstrations rocked the capital Caracas, as anti-government demonstrators clashed with the police and pro-government supporters. The opposition are calling for a referendum to challenge Maduro’s presidency in the face of the spiralling economic crisis. Demonstrations are likely to continue in Caracas and other cities throughout the country and intensify in the coming weeks. Maduro has called on the army to prepare for a major exercise to “safeguard” the country from foreign invaders and a potential coup. Maduro has systematically claimed that right-wing groups supported by the US, and former Colombian president Alvaro Uribe, are driving the civil unrest and attempting to carry out a coup. The highly sensitive relationship between the US and Venezuela is likely to ensure that the US will not intervene in the crisis, but push for a regional response.

Security Advisory

MS Risk strongly advises against all non-essential travel to Venezuela at this time.

The opposition are likely to call for peaceful protests in the coming days to maintain pressure on the government to allow a referendum to depose Maduro and trigger presidential elections. There has been speculation that the military generals could carry out a coup, but MS Risk’s sources on the ground have not seen any significant activity to suggest that the army generals are likely to desert the president at this current time. However, Maduro’s hold on power is increasingly at risk as dissident factions within his own party are starting to turn against him in the face of the crippling economic crisis and widespread medical and food shortages. By calling a state of emergency he is likely to use the military to attempt to regain control in the coming weeks, and seize private assets to prop up the flailing economy.

There is a high likelihood of violent protests breaking out across major cities in the coming weeks and MS Risk advises all travellers to be highly vigilant and avoid demonstrations wherever possible. The political and economic meltdown have reached a crisis point and protesters are increasingly angry. Should the military and police respond with heavy handed tactics, violence is likely to break out. This is particularly worrisome given the dire situation of the country’s hospitals and lack of ambulance and paramedic supplies.

MS Risk strongly advises travellers in Venezuela to avoid engaging in political discussions in public in the highly polarised current environment. We advise not to wear any colours or items that could be misconstrued by the crowds as being partisan, eg red items of clothing, or khaki military looking attire.

There are widespread shortages of medicine on the open market and most pharmacies are empty. Hospitals and clinics are facing a serious public health crisis. The economic crisis has resulted in a major public health issue across the country with hospitals struggling to provide basic medicines such as antibiotics, intravenous solutions and sanitation products (soap, gloves, disinfectants). Alongside this, constant water shortages and blackouts have seen a significant uptick in preventable deaths. In January 2016 the opposition in Congress declared a state of humanitarian emergency and passed a law to allow international aid to prop up the health system. President Maduro rejected the effort as an attempt to privatise the hospital system. Protesters are now calling for the international community to intervene.

MS Risk advises travellers to Venezuela to bring their own emergency medical supplies and sanitary provisions (shampoo, soap, deodorant, toilet paper, etc). It should be highlighted that it is extremely difficult to purchase baby milk and diapers on the open market and MS Risk notes the high risk to travellers or expatriates that may fall ill. The crisis in the hospital and current widespread shortages and power shortages significantly limit the capacity of x-ray machines, oxygen tanks and other respiratory machines. Any traveller to Venezuela must make contingency plans on how to access medical attention should they fall ill, or plans for an emergency evacuation.

There are widespread food shortages, with many shops completely bare and long queues for basic provisions. Looting has become commonplace and violent scuffles regularly occur in the fight to gain basic food supplies. Numerous factories have stopped producing in recent weeks because of the shortages of key ingredients entering the country and constant energy shortages. The government has claimed in the current state of emergency it will seize private factories by force to make them produce basic provisions.

There are rolling blackouts throughout the country, including in Caracas. Schools are officially closed on Fridays and government workers are operating a two-day week in the face of constant energy shortages. Any travellers to Venezuela should be aware that internet access may be severely limited during power outages, and should not depend on electronic devices to navigate the city or make travel plans. It is advisable to map out your daily travel routes and to prepare for limited cell phone coverage and internet access, particularly if significant civil unrest breaks out and the networks are brought down.

The economy is in a state of freefall with the IMF predicting inflation at 700% this year. Venezuela has the world’s largest oil reserves, but its economy retracted 5.7% last year and is predicted to further retract 8% this year, sharply affected by the falling oil prices. The government has so far managed to not default on its debt by significantly cutting costs that have exacerbated the aforementioned food and medical shortages. However, it is increasingly likely that the Venezuelan oil firm PDVSA will default on its $5bn bond payments between now and the end of the year, further shaking confidence in the economy’s ability to rally. The country has drained its foreign reserves, and despite hyperinflation cannot print money quick enough to pay the current debts.

Private companies face a significant risk of non-payment on government contracts. Numerous airline carriers have cut their services to Venezuela since 2014 because of rising insecurity and the government’s inability to pay many contracts. In the oil services sector, providers such as Halliburton and Schlumberger have scaled back their operations because they are owed hundreds of millions of dollars in government contracts. In the current state of emergency that is likely to extend into July, private companies’ assets are at risk as the government will look to nationalise companies to prop up the economy.

Venezuela has some of the highest rates of violence crime in the world, with Caracas registering one of the highest homicide rates in the world in 2015. MS Risk advises travellers to be particularly aware of the dangerous on the road between the Simon Bolivar Airport and Caracas, where regular violent muggings and attacks are reported, often by criminals posing as taxi drivers. MS Risk strongly advises travellers not to use any street taxis or public transport, and to use official drivers with secure vehicles to navigate in the city, particularly in the current climate of widespread roadblocks amid demonstrations.

Major Incidents (1 – 15 May 2016)

15 May         Venezuela will hold national military exercises to prepare the country for “any scenario”, President Nicolas Maduro said. On Friday, Maduro extended the economic state of emergency in the country for three more months.

 14 May         Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro declared a 60-day state of emergency on Friday due to what he called plots from within the country and from the US to topple his leftist government. Maduro did not provide details of the measure. A previous state of emergency, implemented in states near the Colombian border last year, suspended constitutional guarantees in those areas, except for guarantees relating to human rights.

The Venezuelan government has imposed a ban on protests in the capital Caracas over concerns that they could lead to deadly clashes between supporters and opponents of President Nicolas Maduro. The decision comes as the opposition is pressing ahead with a drive to remove Maduro from power through a referendum.

13 May         Venezuela’s Attorney General on Wednesday charged nearly a dozen people, including an Interpol official and five national guards in connection with a shipment of drugs seized in the Dominican Republic in March. Prosecutors charged the men with drug trafficking and conspiracy.

11 May         Soldiers and police officers fired tear gas at protesters on Wednesday as Venezuela’s opposition marched to pressure electoral authorities into allowing a recall referendum against leftist President Nicolas Maduro. Hundreds marched in the capital of Caracas as well as the provinces but authorities blocked them. The Democratic Unity coalition has ramped up its push to oust Maduro amid a worsening economic crisis, but says the government-leaning electoral body is intentionally delaying the verification of signatures in favour of the referendum.

 Nine members of a criminal gang were killed during a crackdown by security forces on crime around the capital of Venezuela. Authorities seized rifles and grenades during the raids. Officers also arrested 15 other suspects wanted by the courts for homicide, drug trafficking and robbery. They also detained 80 Colombians who were in the country illegally.

7 May          The leader of a Venezuelan opposition party in the north-western state of Lara was shot dead by unidentified attackers on Friday. The victim was German Mavares, the state head of the New Time party. It is difficult to establish whether the killing was politically motivated or random violence in a country with one of the world’s highest murder rates.

 Venezuela’s National Guard killed a notorious paramilitary chief during a military ambush in the rural state of Guarico. Jose Tovar Colina was the leader of Los Picures gang, a paramilitary group involved in a series of hired killings, kidnappings and vehicle hijackings. Three other alleged members of Los Pictures gang were also killed in the shoot-out.

4 May          Venezuelan officials say the country’s most wanted gang leader has been killed in a shootout with police. Interior Minister Gustavo Gonzalez identified Jose Colina as the leader of a gang that dominated several states in the center of Venezuela.

2 May          Venezuelan opposition has delivered Monday more than 1.85 million signatures to the National Electoral Board for verification as part of a petition to launch the first stage for a referendum on removing President Nicolas Maduro. If the electoral board accepts the signatures as valid the opposition will then have to collect four million more for the board to organize the vote.

Germany Declares Three North African Countries “Safe”

On 13 May, Germany’s lower house of parliament approved a draft law effectively declaring Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia as safe countries. The move was done in a bid to ease deportation of failed asylum seekers from those North African states.

The law passed easily in the Bundestag lower house, where Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives and their left-leaning Social Democrat coalition partners hold a majority. Only three lawmakers abstained from the vote while 424 voted for bill and 143 voted against it. The government commissioner for human rights, Baerbel Kofler, voted against the bill, stating that there were “proven and documented human rights violations” in those three countries. Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere has defended the law, stating that only 0.7 percent of asylum applicants from the three North African countries were granted refugees status in the first three months of this year.

The bill, which has been criticized by human rights groups as well as the opposition Greens and hard left Die Linke, still needs to be receive final approval from parliament’s upper house. If passed, the law will effectively allow German authorities to speed up the processing of asylum applicants from those countries and deport them if they are rejected.

In January, the German government tightened asylum rules in a bid to stem an influx of migrants, which last year saw more than one million people entering the country. Most of those who entered Germany in 2015 were asylum seekers fleeing conflicts in Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq.

Mexico election scandals spotlight importance of local corruption

The expulsion of three mayoral candidates in Tamaulipas state by Mexico’s ruling party amid allegations they are working with organized crime begs the question of why transnational traffickers would take an interest in local government. There are a number of good reasons drug lords covet control over city hall.

Written by Mimi Yagoub, this article appeared originally in Insight Crime and has been republished with permission. See original version here.

Institutional Revolutionary Party (Partido Revolucionario Institucional – PRI) President Manlio Beltrones announced the suspensions via Twitter on May 7, saying the candidates had been “threatened or bought off by organized crime.” The only evidence Beltrones offered was that the candidates had switched sides. He said they had been forced to support the rival National Action Party (Partido Acción Nacional – PAN).

“The PRI will cancel the registrations of three mayoral candidates in Tamaulipas, threatened or bought off by organized crime,” Beltrones published on his Twitter feed, adding that the candidates had been forced to support the rival National Action Party (Partido Acción Nacional – PAN). The announcement comes only weeks before Mexico‘s local government elections, which are scheduled for June 5.

One of the candidates announced all threes’ support for PAN’s Tamaulipas gubernatorial candidate, Francisco García Cabeza de Vaca, during a campaign rally late in April, Milenio reported. All three are being investigated by the Special Prosecutor for Electoral Crimes (Fiscalía Especializada para la atención de Delitos Electorales – FEPADE),according to Excelsior.

Cabeza de Vaca is facing his own accusations of organized crime links and of using these allies to pressure rival politicians — allegations that his party has denied. Despite those allegations and the fact that Tamaulipas has been a PRI stronghold, the PAN candidate is reportedly favored to win the governor’s seat in June.

The PRI candidate for governor of Tamaulipas has also been a controversial choice. Baltazar Hinojosa Ochoa has been accused of receiving money from the Gulf Cartel while running for mayor of Matamoros in 2002, in exchange for allowing the cartel to pick his chief of police.

Tamaulipas is not the only state where campaigns have been tainted by corruption allegations. Carlos Joaquín González, a candidate for governor in the southern border state Quintana Roo, was recently accused of ties to organized criminal groups.

Whether the current turmoil in Tamaulipas is a political smear campaign or real criminal ties, the involvement of organized crime in local-level politics is a very real concern. There are many examples in Latin America that illustrate the trend, and a number of reasons organized crime goes to the effort to corrupt the lower rungs on the political ladder.

One of the most important attractions of corrupting local government is that it affords criminal groups a measure of territorial control.

Dominating areas without the collusion of local authorities can require high levels of violence or sticking to ungoverned spaces where state forces are irrelevant. This is especially true for trafficking organizations, which can more easily carve out drug corridors if local authorities are on board.

Establishing corridors where government officials and authorities turn a blind eye to criminal movements is particularly important in border states such as Quintana Roo and Tamaulipas, where easier access to foreign soil and markets facilitates drug and human trafficking.

The El Salvador-based Texis Cartel has for years relied on high-level corruption rather than violence to ensure the safe passage of illegal drugs through Central America. Its influence over police chiefs, congressmen and other officials has made the cartel — and its alleged leader, Jose Adan Salazar Umaña, alias “Chepe Diablo” — famously immune to prosecution.

Corrupting the mayor of an area essentially means exerting control over local police. There are countless examples of municipal security forces working for criminal gangs by providing intelligence, protection, or muscle.

One notorious example is that of police officers in the Mexican municipality of Igualá who were found complicit in the disappearance of 43 students in 2014. They were accused of handing the victims over to the drug trafficking gang Guerreros Unidos, a group allegedly led by the mayor of Igualá and his wife.

In another Mexico case, local police agents were arrested in January 2016 and charged with kidnapping five youths and handing them over to a criminal organization in Veracruz state.

In Peru, recently arrested drug boss Gerson Gálvez Calle, alias “Caracol,” reportedly had at least 21 police agents on his payroll. These carried out operations against Gálvez’s rivals and planted evidence to frame them.

As Alejandro Hope points out in his own analysis of local corruption, even the poorest municipalities handle tens of thousands of dollars in government funds each year.

Diverting this money into criminal coffers through extortion or control over the municipal budget can be a comfortable source of income for local crime groups. In Colombia this is all too common, and guerrilla organizations are known to charge a percentage on state contracts in some regions.

In April 2016, a former governor of Arauca was sentenced to nine years in prison for allegedly granting a guerrilla group state contracts.

Political validation can be invaluable in maximizing criminal groups’ power. Representative examples can be found in Colombia and El Salvador. The now-defunct Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia – AUC) had a phenomenal amount of support from local and state politicians of all ranks, largely due to their mutual opposition to guerrilla groups.

This paramilitary umbrella organization had so much political influence that often local politicians would approach the AUC for support, rather than vice versa. Reports emerged of the AUC making pacts with thousands of politicians, and over 100 members of Congress have been investigated in what is popularly known as the “Parapolitics” scandal. The AUC‘s power eventually helped them negotiate an advantageous peace deal with the national government.

Corrupting local politicians can bring even bigger payoffs as they move up the ladder. Some mayors go on to be governors and congressmen, corrupting a small-time politician today could mean controlling high-ranking government positions tomorrow.

This may be one of the reasons Latin America is seeing criminal groups have their own members run for local office. Numerous crooked mayors across the region have recently been arrested for being leaders of criminal organizations.

Once a criminal organization has corrupted a local government, it is easier for it to expand its territory. This so-called “oil drop effect” sees groups consolidate control and subsequently “bleed out,” spreading their power and influence to the surrounding area.

Written by Mimi Yagoub, this article appeared originally in Insight Crime and has been republished with permission. See original version here.

Kenya Again Threatens to Close Refugee Camps Amidst Security Concerns

On Friday 6 May, the Kenyan government announced that refugees from Somalia will no longer be accepted in Kenya, citing security fears.

According to a statement that was signed by interior ministry official Karanja Kibicho, “the Government of the Republic of Kenya, having taken into consideration its national security interests, decided that hosting of refugees has come to an end.” The statement further indicated that under the directive, newly-arrived asylum seekers will not automatically receive refugee status and the government will step up efforts to have those who are already living in the country removed. Mwende Njoka, interior ministry spokesman, disclosed that “the message is clear, we are closing the camps and we will not accept more refugees in the country,” adding that new regulations were aimed at refugees from Somalia but that those from other countries may also be affected, noting “the problematic ones are the Somalis. They’re the ones we’re starting with.”   Kenya hosts around 550,000 refugees in two camps in Kakuma and Dadaab, the world’s largest, many of whom have fled decades of war in neighboring Somalia.   In 2013, the governments of Kenya and Somali, along with the United Nations refugee agency (UNHCR) signed a so-called tripartite agreement, which was aimed at encouraging Somali refugees to return home voluntarily. However since then, only a few thousand have taken up the offer, which has left Kenya frustrated at the slowness. According to Kibicho, “Kenya has been forced by circumstances to reconsider the whole issue of hosting refugees and the process of repatriation,” adding that the Department of Refugee Affairs (DRA), which s responsible for refugee registration and management, had been “disbanded.” However a DRA employee reached by phone at work on Friday afternoon expressed surprise, stating that he knew nothing of the directive.

Government and security officials regularly asset that Islamic militants from al-Shabaab thrive and recruit among Somali refugees. These claims however have been denied by independent observers and by the refugees themselves who point out that many of them have fled al-Shabaab’s depredations. Following deadly al-Shabaab assaults on Nairobi’s Westgate shopping centre and Garissa university, senior officials threated to close Dadaab camp and remove the refugees. In April 2015, just days after that attack in Garissa, Deputy President William Ruto promised to close Dadaab “in three months,” however that deadline, like the previous ones. Friday’s statement again conflated refugees and terrorists emphasizing, “the immense security challenges such as threat of the Shebaab and other related terror groups that hosting of refugees has continued to pose to Kenya. New arrivals from Somalia will no longer receive ‘prima facie’ refugee status but will have to argue their cases individually. However the agency that has been tasked with processing those applications, the DRA, is to be shut down.

On Monday 9 May, the United Nations warned that Kenya’s decision to stop hosting refugees could have “devastating consequences” for hundreds of thousands of people. It has urged the country with the world’s largest refugee camp to reconsider the move. The UN agency has voiced alarm at the announcement, warning against “the potentially devastating consequences for hundreds of thousands of people that premature ending of refugee hosting would have. A statement released by UNHCR disclosed that “the safety of hundreds of thousands of Somalis, South Sudanese and others has (long) hinged on Kenya’s generosity and its willingness to be a leading beacon in the region for international protection,” adding, “tragically, the situations in Somali and South Sudan that cause people to flee are still unresolved.” UNHCR has appealed to Kenya to continue hosting the refugees, warning that it risked worsening the current global refugee crisis if it did not. In its statement, the agency reported that “in today’s global context of some 60 million people forcibly displaced, it is more important than ever that international asylum obligations prevail and are properly supported, “adding, “in light of this, and because of the potentially devastating consequences for hundreds of thousands of people that premature ending of refugee hosting would have, UNHCR is calling on the government of Kenya to reconsider its decision.” A group of charities working in the world’s largest refugee camp in Kenya added their voices on Tuesday to those calling on Nairobi to reconsider a decision to stop hosting Somali refugees. The eleven charities described the Kenyan government’s decision to close Dadaab and Kakuma camps as “unfortunate, adding, “the recent announcement will have far reaching implications for the thousands of refugees and asylum seekers who have called Kenya a place of refuge.” The eleven non-governmental organizations (NGOs), which together provide basic services including healthcare and clean water in the two camps, acknowledged Kenya’s burden in hosting refugees from around the region, however they urged the government not to implement its ne plan. The NGOs, which include the International Rescue Committee, Oxfam, Save the Children and the Norwegian Refugee Council, warned that closing the camps “violates the general principle of voluntary repatriation” and puts the refugees at risk, many of them women and children. Despite fears raised by aid agencies, human rights group sand the United Nations refugee agency (UNHCR), Kenya has insisted that it will go ahead with the plan however no timeline has been released.

On Wednesday 11 May, the interior minister announced that Kenya is drawing up a timetable to close Dadaab refugee camp, which hosts about 350,000 Somalis, because of security concerns. According to Interior Minister Joseph Nkaissery, the country has set up a taskforce to handle the closure plan. Speaking at a news conference, the minister disclosed that “they will present the timetable based on all the resources required,” adding that state funds had been allocated in order to proceed with the programme. He also disclosed that “the government has commenced the exercise of closing the complex of Dadaab refugee camp,” without specifying what new action had ben taken beyond a voluntary repatriation programme that is already in place.

Libya’s Growing Role in the Migrant Crisis

Libya has always been a tragic part of the Mediterranean migrant crisis. Over the past several years, thousands of lives have been lost as overcrowded boats make the dangerous crossing to Italian islands. Over this time, the Libyan and Italian Coast Guards have also saved many more lives. In more recent months though, Turkey has received the majority of migrant-related coverage. Horrific images, particularly of young children, galvanized public opinion across the world. Migrants attempting to enter Europe from Turkey not only placed enormous pressure on Greece, but also sparked a wider political discussion within the European Union.

After the EU-Turkey Agreement on migrants was officially signed, various reports began to emerge about the increasing number of migrants traveling to Libya. In late March, France’s Defence Minister warned that hundreds of thousands of migrants were in Libya preparing to make the ocean crossing to Europe. On March 27, the Libyan Coast Guard prevented 600 migrants on three ships from heading out to sea. A trend began to emerge in May as Libya become the centre of even more people smuggling operations. On April 20, witnesses reported that up to 500 people may have died when an overcrowded ship sank off the Libyan coast near Tobruk. A smaller scale tragedy occurred on April 29-30 when an estimated 80 migrants downed after their ship sank near off the Libyan coast.

There is a prominent difference between migrants crossing from Libya and Turkey. Most of the migrants from Libya are predominantly from Somalia and sub-Saharan African. Compared to Turkey, the Libyan state is weak and highly fractured. This would make any attempted EU deal with Libya (similar to the current one with Turkey) very difficult. Though the Italian Coast Guard has made rescuing migrants a priority, search-and-rescue is still extremely challenging. The Libyan Coast Guard, which should be a close partner in addressing the issue, lacks leadership, equipment and trained personnel. As the media coverage returns to Libya, one thing is almost certain. Large, overcrowded vessels making the long journey to Italian territory will likely result in many more tragedies over the months to come.