Brexit Talks Due to Begin on 19 June

This month, the European Union’s (EU) chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, disclosed that he does not want to consider the chance that talks on the United Kingdom’s exit from the EU could collapse. The statement comes after EU ministers on 22 May gave Mr Barnie the green light for talks to begin in June, after the UK election (8 June).

Mr Barnier, whose comments come after his UK counterpart, David Davis, made clear that the threat to walk out was genuine if the EU’s “divorce bill” was too high, stated “no deal” was no an option. UK ministers have reacted angrily to reports that the EU may demand as much as €100bn (£86bn; $112bn) from the UK. A range of figures has emerged for the amount the UK will be asked to pay when it leaves the EU, covering agreed commitments and liabilities. Furthermore, the EU is insisting that “sufficient progress” be made on the bill, citizens’ rights and the UK-Irish border before talks begin on a future trade agreement.

The first round of talks will begin on 19 June and Mr Barnier will report to EU leaders at a summit three days later. In a communiqué released on Monday 22 May, EU officials stressed that a key to the talks’ success would be their transparency for all sides.

US Will Not Widen Ban on Laptops in Cabin Luggage

According to a Homeland Security official, an American ban on taking laptops in cabin baggage on flights from several countries in the Middle East and North Africa will not be expanded, for now.

Reports had initially indicated that the ban on laptops and tablets in cabins of transatlantic flights to the US was “likely” to take place as an American delegation meet with European government officials earlier this month.  The move however has since been declined.  According to Homeland Security spokesman Dave Lapan, such a move could affect routes carrying as many as 65 million people a year on more than 400 daily flights.

Currently, US-bound passengers travelling from ten airports in eight countries are not able to carry large electronic devices on board and have to instead place these items in checked-in luggage in the hold. Since March of this year, this ban has affected flights originating in Amman, Jordan; Kuwait City, Kuwait; Cairo, Egypt; Istanbul Turkey; Jeddah and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia; Casablanca, Morocco; Doha, Qatar; and Dubai and Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates. The nine airlines affected by this ban are Royal Jordanian, EgyptAir, Turkish Airlines, Saudia, Kuwait Airlines, Royal Air Maroc, Qatar Airways, Emirates and Etihad Airways. Overall, these airlines operate about fifty direct flights to the US every day. Separately, there is also a British ban in place, which targets flights out of Egypt, Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and Tunisia.

The bans were introduced this year amidst growing fears that terrorists are perfecting explosive devices small enough to fit inside consumer electronics in an attempt to bring down commercial airlines. The move was reportedly linked to a threat from al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and was prompted by intelligence. The group boasts one of the world’s most feared bomb makers – Ibrahim Hassan al Asiri. Authorities are concerned about plots similar to an incident that occurred in Somalia in February 2016 when a bomb hidden in a laptop blew open the side of a plane, failing however to bring it down. Only the bomber was killed in that incident.

Venezuela and Brazil: From Slow Cooking to Boiling Over

This month saw the culmination of several processes in Latin America that have been slow cooking for some time now. Venezuela is on the brink of civil war as its economy is collapsing, food is scarce and violent protests rage in the streets. The country with more oil reserves than Saudi Arabia is going through the world’s deepest recession. Supermarkets are empty and the little food available is unaffordable for most Venezuelans due to skyrocketing inflation. The supermarket queues alone are extremely dangerous as people have been robbed and killed while standing in line. However, there is no alternative. Almost three quarters of the population lost on average almost twenty pounds due to the ‘Maduro Diet’. People are combing thrash for food while child mortality levels increased by thirty percent. Hospital conditions are extremely harsh with a chronic shortage in medicine and basic healthcare. A Malaria outbreak compounds this problem. Daily protests in response to these conditions have up to date killed at least 46 people. In order to curb the rioting Maduro has jailed its opponents, shut down independent media outlets and unleashed his security forces on the populace. 2600 soldiers were sent to the Andean area near Colombia in order to regain control as the country marked its 50^th day of violent clashes. Still, Maduro vowed to push ahead in July with the formation of a ‘constituent assembly’ in order to rewrite the constitution thereby increasing the fear that opposition parties will be excluded from future elections. Meanwhile, to the south, in Brazil, months of simmering anti-corruption probes reached a climax when the current sitting President Michel Temer himself was implicated in a corruption scandal. An audio recording emerged in which Temer and the President of meat-packing firm JBS, discuss bribing a jailed politician in exchange for his silence in his role as witness in Operation Car Wash. The tape’s fallout and the resulting news that the President himself was involved in a cover-up connected to the continent-wide anti-corruption probe shook the nation. Brazilian assets were dumped on foreign financial markets and protests ensued in the country’s major cities. Running battles between police and tens of thousands anti-Temer protesters led to the deployment of the army on the streets. While the financial markets have recovered, Temer’s position likely has not. Even though Temer, in a defiant public speech, has explicitly announced not to stand down, the possibility that the country will see a second President fall in less than a year has become more likely. If that happens the country’s long overdue, but unpopular, economic reforms will be further away than ever, thereby decreasing the prospects of ending the deep recession that has been going on. The spillover effect of both country’s crises are likely to keep on influencing the entire continent’s economic and political state of affairs for the time being.

US Arrests of Suspected Illegal Immigrants on the Rise

According to data released by the United States government this month, US arrests of suspected illegal immigrants rose by 38% during the first 100 days of Donald Trump’s presidency.

Detentions by the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency increased to 41,318 between 22 January 2017 and the end of April. This was up from 30,028 arrests that occurred in the about the same period in 2016. According ot the ICE, almost two-thirds of those arrested this year had criminal convictions, noting that more than half the increase in arrests was of immigrants who were simply in the US without permission. President Trump has stepped up immigration enforcement to target such undocumented immigrants.

The dragnet follows presidential orders, which have widened the scope of who can be targeted for immigration violations. Acting director of ICA Thomas Homan told reporters on Wednesday 17 May that immigrants who posed a threat to national security or had criminal records were still a priority for this agency, noting however that “there is no category of aliens off the table.” He went on to say that the ICE would continue to target people who had been issued a final order of removal by an immigration judge, even if they had not committed another crime. He stated that “those that enter the country illegally, they do violate the law, that is a criminal act,” adding “when a federal judge makes a decision and issues an order that order needs to mean something.”

While former President Barack Obama was also criticized for deporting a large number of immigrants, most of them were recent illegal border crossers. While President Trump’s signature campaign pledge to build an expanded wall on the US-Mexico border is currently in limbo, after Congress denied funding for it in a recent budget agreement, his tough rhetoric on border security appears to be having an impact on immigration enforcement. US Customs and Border Protection data indicated this month that the number of people caught crossing the border with Mexico is down significantly since the beginning of the year.

French Parliamentary Election: Latest Poll Indicates Macron to Win Absolute Majority

According to a poll released on Thursday 25 May, French President Emmanuel Macron’s party is set to win an absolute majority in parliament in legislative elections next month, indicating that the new leader may have enough support to carry out an ambitious reform agenda.

In an OpinionWay poll for financial daily Les Echos, President Macron was seen getting 310 to 330 of the 535 mainland seats in the lower house of parliament – effectively more than the required 289 seats necessary for a majority. The latest poll results are similar to a raft of other recent polls which have suggested that President Macron’s start-up Republic On the Move (LREM) party would displace the Socialists as the largest party in the house and outrank the conservatives. The latest poll indicates that the Socialists are seen getting only 25 to 30 seats in Parliament, with the Republicans winning between 140 to 160 seats.

President Macron is planning to pass a reform of labour regulations by the end of September before kicking off overhauls of the unemployment insurance system and professional training later in the year and tackling pension schemes in 2018.