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France Extends State of Emergency

The French Parliament this month voted to extend the state of emergency until 1 November 2017, a measure first imposed after Islamist suicide bombers and gunmen killed 130 people in coordinated attacks on Paris in November 2015. The extension also comes as French President Emmanuel Macron has promised that the state of emergency will end in November.

Lawmakers across the political divide supported the extension, with the exception of those from Jean-Luc Melenchon’s hard-left France Unbowed Party and the Community Party, both of which have deemed that the emergency rule is dangerous for civil liberties. Interior Minister Gerard Collomb told parliament that “freedom and security are not mutually exclusive…When you strengthen security, you don take away civil liberties, you preserve them, and sometimes you enhance them.”

France, whose forces are part of the US-led coalition that is fighting the so-called Islamic State (IS) group in Iraq and Syria, has been beset by a wave of Islamist militant attacks since early 2015. Nearly all of the attacks have been carried out by IS loyalists or individuals inspired by the group. Human rights groups however have criticized the state of emergency, stating that it tramples on individuals’ rights and that it erodes the rule of law.

The state of emergency effectively allows police to search homes and arrest people without prior consent from judges. It also allows them to tap computer and phone communications more freely. The French government has presented a draft counter-terrorism bill that President Macron wants to replace the temporary emergency powers. The bill, which rights group shave also criticized, envisages extending police powers to stop and search people or conduct house searches and would also give officials more discretion in deciding when to invoke a risk of terrorism as justification for curbs on freedoms.

UN Agrees Peacekeeping Budget

Late last month, the United Nations states struck a deal on a US $7.3 billion annual peacekeeping budget. According to diplomats, US $600 million has been cut from current costs while the US’ share has been cut by 7.5 percent, following calls by President Donald Trump to slash funding.

In the early hours of Wednesday 28 June, the 193-member UN budget committee agreed on US $7.3 billion to fund thirteen peacekeeping missions and a logistics support office. The US initial peacekeeping budget proposal was the lowest made of all states and regional blocs and was nearly US $1 billion less than UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres’ suggestion. Washington initially proposed a peacekeeping budget of US $6.99 billion for the year from 1 July 2017, which would have reduced its share of the bill by more than 10 percent to US $1.99 billion. While President Trump has described US funding for the UN as “peanuts” compared to its “important work,” he has complained that its share of the peacekeeping bill, which is currently 28.5 percent, is “unfair.” In his 2018 budget proposal he requested that Congress approve only US $1.2 billion for UN peacekeeping. On Wednesday, US Ambassador Nikki Haley told US lawmakers in Washington that president Trump’s proposed US federal budget was “making a point that he wanted to strengthen the military and it was putting the United Nations on notice.” Haley further stated, “I have used that as leverage…now we’re seeing a lot of the other countries come forward and say ‘yes we should reform,’” adding “I really do think the message was effective.”

In a bid to cut costs, the US is also reviewing each of the UN peacekeeping missions as annual mandates come up for renewal by the UN Security Council. The US is a veto-wielding member of the Council, along with Britain, France, China and Russia.

Washington also pays 22 percent of the US $5.4 billion biennial UN core budget. Ultimately, the US Congress sets the federal government budget and will decide how much money is available for UN funding. However Republicans, who control both houses, and Democrats have both stated that they do not support drastic cuts proposed by President Trump. President Trump wants to enforce a 25 percent cap on the US contribution to UN peacekeeping. The UN General Assembly is due to negotiate next year new levels of contributions by countries for 2019, 2020 and 2021.   Secretary General Guterres has pledged to make UN peacekeeping more efficient, noting however that the current budget to fund it is less than one half of 1 percent of global military spending.

Questions Arise Again About Whereabouts of IS Leader

On Monday 17 July, a top Kurdish counter-terrorism official disclosed that he was 99 percent sure that Islamic State (IS) leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was alive and located south of the Syrian city of Raqqa, despite numerous reports that he had been killed last month.

In an interview with Reuters, Lahur Talabany disclosed, “Baghdadi is definitely alive. He is not dead. We have information that he is alive. We believe 99 percent he is alive,” adding “don’t forget his roots go back to al-Qaeda days in Iraq. He was hiding from security services. He knows what he is doing.”

IS’s secretive leaders has frequently been reported killed or wounded since he climbed up to the pulpit of a mosque in Mosul in 2014 and declared a caliphate with himself the leader of all Muslims. After leading his fighters on a sweep through northern Iraq, Baghdadi attempted to create a self-sustaining modern-day caliphate in parts of Iraq and neighbouring Syria. Talabany notes that “he is not an easy figure. He has years of experience in hiding and getting away from the security services,” adding “the territory they control right now, still to this day, is very tough territory. It is still not the end of the game for ISIL. Even though they have lost almost all of Mosul and they are getting ready to lose Raqqa as well.”

Iraqi security forces have effectively ended three years of IS ruling the Iraqi city of Mosul, and the group is now under increasing pressure in Raqqa – both of which are former strongholds in the militant’s rapidly crumbling caliphate. Talabany notes however that IS is now in the process of shifting tactics, despite low morale, noting that it would take three or four years in order to eliminate the group as it takes to the mountains and deserts to stage hit and run attacks unleash suicide bombers. According to Talabany, “they are getting ready for a different fight I think. We have a lot tougher days ahead of us than people think,” adding “we saw why they were smarter. Al-Qaeda never controlled any territory. They will be smarter.”

In the wake of numerous reports that Baghdadi has been killed, questions have been raised about who might replace him as head of a diverse group that is comprised of Iraqis and other Arabs as well as hard-core foreign fighters. Iraqi intelligence officers, who served under Saddam Hussein, have been described as the military strategists instruments in recreating an IS reign of terror.   Talabany has disclosed that it was hard to know which top Baghdadi aides were alive or dead, noting however that he believes most of the leadership remains in Syria, in an area south of Raqq. Sources have disclosed that a younger generation of Saddams’ former allies are expected to take key positions. What is evident is that security services will now face the daunting challenge of breaking up sleeper cells, typically made up of two facilitators and two operators.

Italy Drafts Contested Code of Conduct for NGO Migrant Boats

An official disclosed last week that the Italian government, which is looking to stem a flow of migrants into the country, has drawn up a draft code of conduct for non-governmental organizations (NGO’s) that operate in the Mediterranean Sea.

Sources have indicated that the 11-point plan is expected to be presented in the coming days to some nine NGO’s who regularly deploy rescue boats to international waters just off the coast of Libya. Amongst the points included in the proposed new rules will be a ban on making phone calls or firing flares that may signal to human traffickers that they could push their migrant boats out to sea. Furthermore, the NGO vessels will also be obliged to let police travel with them to help root out any human traffickers hidden amongst the migrants. Additionally, the boats will no longer be allowed to transfer refuges to other ships, but will instead have to bring them to port themselves, a move that will limit their operations. The code of conduct will also include a categorical ban on NGO’s entering Libyan waters unless human life is clearly in danger. If any group refuses to accept the terms, they risk being barred access to ports in Italy – effectively meaning that they would have to divert to other countries to disembark any migrants.

Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch (HRW), which received a leaked draft of the Italian document, have already warned that the proposals could have a disastrous impact on NGO missions operating in the Mediterranean. According to Iverna McGowan, a senior director with Amnesty International, “attempts to restrict NGO search and rescue operations risk endangering thousands of lives by limiting rescue boats from accessing the perilous waters near Libya.”

According to the latest data, which was released by the Italian Interior Ministry on 12 July, some 85,217 migrants have come to Italy so far this year. In all, more than 600,000 newcomers, the majority from sub-Sahara Africa, have reached Italy over the past four years, with tens of thousands more expected to arrive in the coming months. A small flotilla of charity boats have become increasingly important in rescue operations, with the Italian coastguard reporting that they have picked up more than a third of all migrants brought ashore so far this year, against less than one percent in 2014. Rome however now suspects that their presence just outside Libyan territorial waters encourages migrants to risk their lives and go out to sea. This has been denied by NGO’s, who maintain that thousands more would die if their boats were not present in the southern Mediterranean. Since 2014, more than 13,000 people are estimated to have drowned trying to make the dangerous crossing to Italy.

While viewing the NGO’s with increasing suspicion, the Italian government has also grown frustrated with allies within the European union (EU), stating that they are not doing enough in order to help tackle the crisis, including by taking in many more of the new arrivals. On Wednesday, Italian Prime Minister Palo Gentiloni, who is looking to improve cooperation amongst EU partners, met with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Sources however have indicated that there was no sign of any pledges to help relieve the pressure on Italy. Speaking to reports, Prime Minister Gentiloni stated, “progress has been made regarding migration policy, but it is not yet sufficient.”

Migration Emergency: Along With Italy, Spain Could be Next

The number of migrants arriving on Spain’s southern coast has more than doubled in 2017 compared to last year. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), since the start of 2017, 6,464 migrants crossed the Mediterranean to reach the country, while the total in 2016 was just over 8,000 migrants last year, making up only 2% of the total of so-called “irregular arrivals” to the EU.

The spike in arrivals means the crossing to Spain is now almost as popular as the one to Greece, which was the main entry point to Europe until the EU adopted a returns pact with Turkey.

The increasingly number of accidents occurred lately across the Alboran Sea, which connects northeastern Morocco and southeastern Spain, in the Western Mediterranean are clear evidence of the seriousness of the situation, which could potentially evolve into a new emergency for another European state. Just last week eight boats carrying 380 people were rescued. Only few days after an inflatable dinghy that had apparently set out from Morocco with 52 people aboard was flipped over after being hit by a strong wave. Only three survivors were rescued by the Spanish coastguard in what has been called by the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) “the worst tragedy in the last decade in the Spanish Mediterranean” involving migrants.

Usually calm summer months are particularly popular for crossings the Alboran Sea, but its strong currents are perilous to small craft like dinghies, and a rogue wave or unexpected weather can make the journey a lethal one. As Mikel Araguas, from the Spanish branch of charity SOS Racisme declared: “We are worried because we are seeing numbers which we have not seen in years. And it’s a dangerous area, where the currents are very strong”.

In fact, even before this tragedy, 60 migrants are believed to have drowned in the Western Mediterranean this year. Andalucía human rights charity APDHA estimates that 6,000 people have drowned trying to cross that stretch of water since 1997.

The vast majority of migrants coming to Spain are sub-Saharan Africans fleeing poverty or conflict in their home countries.  Many of those come from West African nations such as Guinea or Ivory Coast. A common route is by land through Mali and Algeria, and then on to Morocco, which at its nearest point is only eight nautical miles from the Spanish mainland. Internal factors within particular countries of origin can also encourage exoduses. For example recent social unrest in northern Morocco’s Rif region has triggered a new migratory tendency.

However, another reason is that word is getting out that the journey through Libya to reach Italian coasts is becoming more risky, with “ever harder controls”, said Helena Maleno Garzon of migrant aid agency Caminando Fronteras.

Many migrants passing through Libya, wracked by chaos since the 2011 toppling of dictator Muammar Gaddafi with rival militias and administrations seeking to control the oil-rich country, have reported dramatic tales of abuse in the country.

Migrants have reported being sold “on a slave market”, according to the IOM. Amnesty International has complained of migrants being tortured and jailed while the UNHCR has published reports by migrants of “appalling” conditions at Libya’s migrant detention centres. European authorities have also at long last begun to crack down on migrant smugglers in the country and aid workers say harder controls on making the crossing will force people further along the coastline.  Adding to the appeal of this route is the fact that the sea crossing is shorter and it costs less. To capitalise on this people smugglers have slashed their prices for the Spain crossing by more than half, down from £1,770 per person last year to just £800 now, with tragic consequences. As a result, some migrants prefer to make their way to Morocco or Algeria and from there cross the Mediterranean to Spain, even though the Italian sea route from Libya remains the most popular for migrants. Italy has accepted around 85,000 of the 100,000 people who have arrived in Europe by sea this year according to the IOM.

The prospect of yet another major front opening up in the Mediterranean is a serious concern for European leaders who are struggling to respond to the unprecedented arrivals in Italy.

Rome has already warned that its reception centres are close to collapse whilst EU capitals bicker over the best way to help the country and bring down the numbers of arrivals in the future. In recent weeks some ministers have significantly toughened their tone, talking openly about sending boats back to North Africa and hugely upping deportations of economic migrants. However no solution appears to be either feasible or easy to apply in the immediate horizon.