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07 Oct

Posted at 21:22h in Uncategorized

What is Russia’s shadow fleet and how big is it? According to the UK Government policy paper ‘The ‘Shadow Fleet’: A Call To Action’, Russia’s shadow fleet “comprises ships engaged in illegal operations for the purposes of circumventing sanctions, evading compliance with safety or environmental regulations,...

20 Sep

Posted at 22:52h in Uncategorized

Key Judgments: It is highly likely that the increasing sanctions against Iran will result in it deepening its relationships with other hostile nations such as Russia and China, leading to an emerging economic and military axis that challenges Western interests. (High confidence). Over the short...

02 Sep

Posted at 19:39h in Uncategorized

Ukraine invasion into Russia Key Judgement: It is highly likely that Ukrainian offensive would damage Russian war capability. It is likely that Ukraine offensive is to create breakthrough in Eastern Ukraine, in both strategic and political ground. It is realistically possible this would ultimately lead...

02 Aug

Posted at 22:23h in Uncategorized

Two high-profile killings in Beirut and Tehran have highlighted Israel's military capability, with the potential to change Middle Eastern relations. The killings of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Faud Shukur has prompted strong reactions from regional players and could further escalate tensions in...

22 Jul

Posted at 23:34h in Uncategorized

Since October of 2023, the Houthi militants in Yemen have sought to disrupt global shipping by way of missile attacks throughout the Red Sea region. The Houthi’s claim that their motive for this strategy is linked to defending the people of Gaza against Israel, however...

12 Jul

Posted at 23:18h in Uncategorized

Key Judgement: It is highly likely that Russia would continue taking foreigners from Western countries as hostage to be used as bargaining chips It is likely that targeted foreigners have Western countries citizenship with Russian citizenship or ethnic background. It is realistically possible that...