Key Judgement: It is highly likely that Russia would attempt to destabilize Poland by weaponizing migrants (High confidence) It is highly likely that recent European Parliament election result would be supportive Poland’s extreme border control policy, and migrants flow would be helpful for right wing...
This paper analyses Israel's military operation in Rafah on May 6th, 2024, within the broader context of the Gaza Strip conflict. It explores the factors leading to the operation, its immediate consequences, and its regional and international implications, including diplomatic tensions and humanitarian concerns. On May...
It is highly likely that the Houthis will continue to use their current Red Sea strategy in order to consolidate their power and territory in Yemen and achieve political legitimacy. It is assessed with high confidence that political leverage over the Yemeni government, Saudi Arabia,...
Key Judgements: There has been a recent surge of Russian and Chinese backed espionage operations in regions across Western and Southern Europe. These operations have greatly affected the security of Western and Southern Europe and demonstrate that both Russia and China are gearing towards a...
Key Judgements: The Russian Spring Offensive would likely be targeting Kharkiv. Russia is likely to be able to establish a buffer zone to stop Ukrainian strikes against the Belgorod region. It is unlikely that Russia would be able to take control of the whole Kharkiv...
This paper delves into the recent escalation between Iran and Israel, focusing on the aerial assault targeting the Iranian consulate in Damascus at the beginning of the month and Iran's response through a missile operation directed at Israel on April 14th. It evaluates the scale...
Key Judgments: We assess that Somali pirates pose a heightened threat to commercial ships. The rise in Somali piracy in this region is seen as an opportunistic approach to their activities, rather than a strategic approach, and is due to the disruptions that have been...
This paper provides an analysis of the Israeli Defence Forces' (IDF) operations at Al-Shifa Hospital on March 18th. It evaluates the claims regarding the presence of Hamas members, the civilian casualties, and the ethical considerations involved in striking medical facilities. The assessment evaluates the IDF's...
Key Judgements: It is highly likely that President Sandu will be re-elected in upcoming presidential election of 2024. (High confidence) It is Almost certain that re-elected President Sandu would attempt to join EU, aiming to become a member state within the next 10 years. (High confidence) It is...
Key Judgements: The German-Swedish manufactured Taurus KEPD 350 is an extremely versatile missile system that could be operationally, tactically and strategically be beneficial to the Ukrainian Armed Forces if it is given the green light to be deployed to Ukraine by Germany. The Ukrainian military...