Key Judgments: We assess that Somali pirates pose a heightened threat to commercial ships. The rise in Somali piracy in this region is seen as an opportunistic approach to their activities, rather than a strategic approach, and is due to the disruptions that have been...
This paper provides an analysis of the Israeli Defence Forces' (IDF) operations at Al-Shifa Hospital on March 18th. It evaluates the claims regarding the presence of Hamas members, the civilian casualties, and the ethical considerations involved in striking medical facilities. The assessment evaluates the IDF's...
Key Judgements: It is highly likely that President Sandu will be re-elected in upcoming presidential election of 2024. (High confidence) It is Almost certain that re-elected President Sandu would attempt to join EU, aiming to become a member state within the next 10 years. (High confidence) It is...
Key Judgements: The German-Swedish manufactured Taurus KEPD 350 is an extremely versatile missile system that could be operationally, tactically and strategically be beneficial to the Ukrainian Armed Forces if it is given the green light to be deployed to Ukraine by Germany. The Ukrainian military...
Key Judgments: It is likely that negative market sentiment will drive inflationary pressures in the next 12 months. (High confidence). It is likely that the Bank of England will not cut interest rates in the next 12 months. (Low confidence). It is highly likely that...
Key Judgement: Within the next three months, it is likely that political disruption of current administration would be continue. It is likely that current government would not strongarm farmer protest. The current Polish Prime Minister, who first ascended to power in 2007, initially gained recognition...
In response to a drone strike that killed three U.S. soldiers at the U.S. Tower 22 facility in Jordan, the United States began targeted airstrikes against Iran-backed militia positions in Syria and Iraq. President Biden emphasised a measured approach, while Syrian and Iraqi authorities expressed alarm...
Topic: An analysis of the targeted killing of Russian defector Maxim Kuzminov in Spain and online Russian disinformation campaigns in Western and Southern Europe: What effects do these events have on the security of Western and Southern Europe? Key Judgements: Maxim Kuzminov is highly likely to...
Key Judgments: The Houthis’ capability to attack subsea cables in the Red Sea is dependent on Iranian intelligence. There is a realistic probability that the subsea cables will be attacked. Severe disruption, however, is unlikely. Since October, the Houthi militants have captured the world’s attention...
Belarus For the past month, Belarus has conducted mass raids, interrogation and arrest against political prisoners and its friends and relatives. According to Vasana Human Rights Centre, Belarusian human rights group reported that this is one of the most serious crackdowns in recent years. In late...