Context Since mid-July, Washington under President Donald Trump has been pursuing new diplomatic initiatives to achieve a ceasefire in the Ukraine war. An announced ultimatum to Russia threatening harsh punitive tariffs was replaced by a summit between Trump and Putin in Alaska on 15 August. A subsequent...
Key Judgments 2 days of heavy clashes between the Spanish and North African populations caused by an assault on a pensioner in the town of Torre Pacheo Linked to the messaging of far-right political party, Vox and anti-immigrant sentiment in Spain Likely to impact the...
In June and July 2025, Poland, Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania formally announced their withdrawal from the Convention on the Prohibition of Anti-Personnel Mines. The so-called Ottawa Treaty prohibits the use of anti-personnel mines. The exit reflects the evolving threat landscape along NATO’s northeastern flank...
Key Judgements 5 days of violent race riots in the Ballymena area of Northern Ireland after the attempted rape of a teenage girl 32 police officers were injured, and several houses were burned or damaged Additional police officers and resources were requested from Great...
Summary On 1 June 2025, Ukrainian forces conducted a coordinated FPV-drone strike against five Russian air bases located deep within the country. The targets included strategic long-range bombers - notably the nuclear-capable Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 - as well as A-50 early warning aircraft. The operation demonstrates...
Key Judgements Alleged arson attacks occurred at properties connected to Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer Three men were arrested and have been charged with counts of arson and conspiracy to endanger life. Counter Terrorism police are investigating the cause and motivations of the three...
Summary Presidential elections were held in Poland and Romania on 18 May. In Romania, the independent, pro-European candidate Nicușor Dan, mayor of Bucharest, won the runoff election by a narrow margin against the right-wing populist George Simion. Both were considered anti-establishment. In Poland, the liberal...
Key Takeaways Electrical power in Spain was interrupted for 10 hours At least 30 people died due to indirect effects No clear cause yet but many possible solutions ENTSO-e will establish an export panel to investigate and publish a report on the event Timeline On...
Poland at a Crossroads: Security Policy and the 2025 Presidential Election The first round of the Polish presidential elections will take place on 18 May 2025. The election campaign reflects the division between the government and the national conservative camp. The focus is on security policy...
Advisory - Burkina Faso Foils Coup Plot (23 April 2025) Summary On 21 April 2025, Burkina Faso’s military government announced that it had foiled what it termed a “major plot” to overthrow junta leader Captain Ibrahim Traoré, with the army alleging that the coup plotters were based...