MS Risk Limited |

10 Feb Russian Energy Leverage and Political Influence in the Western Balkans

Posted at 01:03h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements Russia continues to use energy dependency as a low-visibility influence mechanism across the Western Balkans, particularly in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Energy pricing incentives and long-term gas agreements provide Moscow with structural political leverage rather than immediate coercive power. Messaging around “energy...

03 Feb The Greenland Crisis

Posted at 00:38h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements U.S. pressure to take control over Greenland triggered a major NATO internal conflict, prompting Operation Arctic Endurance, a coordinated NATO military exercise deployment to Greenland to deter escalation and signal alliance resolve. Washington frames its Greenland strategy around the $175 billion Golden Dome...

26 Jan China-Philippines Territorial Dispute in the South China Sea

Posted at 20:26h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements Tensions continue to rise in the South China Sea as China and the Philippines remain entangled in a maritime dispute amid legal standoff. The turn of the new year saw Filipino Coast Guard assets facing off a Chinese research vessel off the coast of...

20 Jan Iran’s Mass Crackdown on Nationwide Protests: Regional Implications and Escalation Risks

Posted at 00:49h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements Iran's security forces have killed at least 2,500-3,400 protesters during a violent crackdown on nationwide demonstrations that began in late December 2025, representing one of the deadliest protest suppressions in modern Iranian history and potentially precipitating a broader regional crisis. The crisis has...

10 Jan Russian control and messaging within Orthodox identity in Moldova.

Posted at 01:00h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements Russian-linked Orthodox circles are being leveraged to disperse anti-European ideology within socially conservative areas. Religious legitimacy provides Russian-linked actors with a deniable influence mechanism Activity levels are directly correlated to key political events such as elections. Suggesting tolerance and potentially coordination from Russian-friendly...

29 Dec Analysis on Situations in Syria and Lebanon

Posted at 21:19h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements Syria's interim government faces a critical December 31, 2025, deadline to integrate Kurdish SDF forces, threatening the fragile one-year-old political transition if negotiations fail. Lebanon's inability to disarm Hezbollah by the US-imposed December 31 deadline risks triggering renewed military conflict, with Israel conducting...

26 Dec Renewed Thailand-Cambodia hostilities

Posted at 21:00h in Uncategorized

On 7th December the ceasefire deal between Thailand and Cambodia collapsed as heavy fighting broke out along the 817km border. This most recent and deadly phase of the conflict has resulted in at least 60 people killed and numerous more injured and displaced, with Thailand...

22 Dec Spike in cross-border smuggling networks between Belarus, Poland and Lithuania

Posted at 20:45h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements Large-scale increases in low-cost aerial smuggling methods over the Polish, Belarusian and Lithuanian border area, centred around commercially available drones and weather balloons, highlight he ‘hybrid’ nature of threats in the area. Recent balloon incursions have caused widespread disruption and temporary closures...

22 Sep Parliamentary Elections in Moldova 2025: Between Europe and Russia

Posted at 23:17h in Uncategorized

Summary On 28 September 2025, the Republic of Moldova will elect a new parliament. The vote is considered decisive for the country's geopolitical direction. It could either confirm the pro-European course with the goal of EU integration by 2028 or initiate a return to neutrality and...

29 Aug Ukraine–Russia Peace Negotiations: Status and Outlook

Posted at 23:07h in Uncategorized

Context Since mid-July, Washington under President Donald Trump has been pursuing new diplomatic initiatives to achieve a ceasefire in the Ukraine war. An announced ultimatum to Russia threatening harsh punitive tariffs was replaced by a summit between Trump and Putin in Alaska on 15 August. A subsequent...