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The Disinfodemic Has Hit Eastern Europe

The number of requests for information about COVID-19 developments, such as death tolls and vaccine updates, remains high. Some are taking advantage of the current desire for information as evidenced by the rising spread of misinformation and disinformation about the virus. First of all, it is important to distinguish between the two. While misinformation is defined as false information that is spread, regardless of intent to mislead, disinformation generally refers to deliberately misleading or biased information and manipulated narrative or facts. The crucial difference between the two, therefore, is intent.

Disinformation is dangerous as it can be destructive and divisive. It has often been used by countries to undermine rival nations. Since the pandemic started we have seen several incidents involving spread of disinformation. Cyber-security firm FireEye warned in a July 2020 report, “’Ghostwriter’ Influence Campaign: Unknown Actors Leverage Website Compromises and Fabricated Content to Push Narratives Aligned with Russian Security Interests”, that hackers have broken into news websites and posted fake stories aiming at stirring up anti-NATO sentiment. FireEye researchers said these are designed to “chip away” at support for NATO in the eastern European countries of Poland and Lithuania, in addition to Latvia. According to them, this disinformation campaign, which has been dubbed Ghostwriter, has been going on since 2017.

While the people behind the attacks have not been identified, the stories are “aligned with Russian security interests” according to the researchers. They generally attempt to discredit NATO and the US, and include discussion favouring Russia. Furthermore, “[i]t appears, based on the limited public information available regarding the website compromises we have tied to Ghostwriter, that the actors behind the campaign are relatively well-resourced, either directly possessing traditional cyber threat capabilities themselves or having ready access to operational support from others who do.”

The hackers publish “falsified news articles, quotes, correspondence and other documents designed to appear as coming from military officials and political figures in the target countries.” For instance, in April 2020 a fake message calling for troops to fight against “the American occupation” was published on the Polish War Studies Academy’s website. It claimed to be from this organisation’s commander and came after Poland had begun seeking to have the US establish a permanent military base there. Meanwhile Russia has called the arrival of US troops there a threat to its security. On May 27, a falsified interview transcript containing quotes from US Army Lt. Gen. Cavoli was published. Its narrative was that Cavoli criticised Polish and Baltic militaries.

More recently, several fake news articles have been focused on the current pandemic, with some suggesting that NATO is pulling out of Lithuania because of the COVID-19 virus and others blaming NATO forces in Europe of contributing to its spread. For instance, in March 2020, falsified quotes from Lithuanian Defence Minister Ramundas Karoblis was published which contained statements that Lithuania would go ahead with DEFENDER-Europe 20 NATO Exercises despite the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition to these, FireEye identified several other individual attacks and collected it into what they say is a “broader influence campaign.”

The hackers apparently gained access to the targeted websites’ content management systems (CMS) to replace old articles with own content or post completely new false articles. “Website content management system vulnerabilities are commonplace and easily exploited,” Mallory Knodel, CTO at the Center for Democracy and Technology (CDT), said. “Strong and secure websites protect against this by making only cached versions of the website available to users through content delivery networks, and some might go so far as to ensure that the back end, the site’s CMS, [isn’t] exposed on the internet at all, and that version control for static page content, like the content of a news story, is closely monitored.” Knodel continued: “Strong authentication for anyone with back-end access is a must, and this can be done through the use of strong passwords, second-factor authentication, and limiting access to those on a virtual private network.”

Furthermore, director of security strategy at Akamai, Tony Lauro, warned that CMSs may be even easier to compromise when attackers can leverage security weaknesses created by the current pandemic-related remote working conditions. “If an attacker can gain access to [the] CMS platform, either by taking over the remote employee’s workstation or by otherwise phishing their login credentials, as you’d imagine, they’d have the keys to the kingdom,” said Lauro. Lauro suggests that “[o]rganizations should look into zero trust-related technologies for remote access so that when employees connect to internal content management systems to upload media, they are not connecting to any additional network resources. This is done by way of a proxied connection between the inside resources and outside users.”

To combat disinformation, independent fact-checking organisations; news organisations; platforms; academics; and civil society organisations continuously monitor and fact-check published information. For instance, an International Fact Checking Network (IFCN) initiative currently spanning 70+ countries fact-checked and debunked over 1.500 COVID-19 related online falsehoods. Such initiatives are vital to uncover the continuously changing disinformation. Other measures have included criminalising acts of producing or sharing COVID-19 disinformation. For instance, Serbia announced a decree in April 2020 limiting access to public information, for which the stated goal was to limit the spread of fake news. On March 31 Russian lawmakers passed amendments to Article 207 of Criminal Code, under which those found to have deliberately spread false information about serious matters of public safety, such as COVID 19, will face fines of up to €23,000 and up to five years in prison. Such measures have however been criticised for having a potential chilling effect on journalists writing about the pandemic as they can stifle independent reporting on the government’s measures. While examining the validity of this criticism is beyond this article, it is important to note that there may be other motivations behind measures implemented to combat disinformation.

Criticism aside, measures must be implemented to combat the current disinfodemic, and not just in eastern Europe as the campaign may eventually spread beyond this region. FireEye warned that the Ghostwriter campaign could be repurposed and target other geographies. “Given the established history of cyber threat and information operations tactics regularly migrating from targeting Eastern Europe to targeting Western Europe and the U.S., this campaign may warrant special attention, especially as elections near,” they said. It is therefore important that security firms and governments continue to pay attention to this campaign and any future developments.

Access to truthful information is essential during the current crisis. Reliable information is necessary for individuals to adapt their behaviour, such as implementing certain social distancing measures, and for countries to learn from other countries’ experiences and responses. Disinformation can be deadly as it sows confusion about live-saving personal and policy choices. It is therefore vital that security for news websites is prioritised and that published information is properly monitored and fact-checked.

Neo-Nazi’s Infiltration within Germany’s Police and Military

Last month, Germany’s defense minister, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, disbanded a fighting company within the KSK, one of the most elite military units in Germany due to the growing of Neo-Nazi views among the members. It was discovered in May that one of the members of the KSK, a sergeant major with the nickname of “Little Sheep”, was hoarding weapons in his house. German authorities found various weapons buried in his garden such as two kilograms of PETN plastic explosives, a detonator, a fuse, an AK-47, a silencer, two knives, a crossbow, and thousands of rounds of ammunition. They also found numerous Nazi memorabilia such as an SS songbook and 14 editions of a magazine for former members of the Waffen SS. The weapons were believed to be stolen from the German military. German officials stated that 48,000 rounds of ammunition and 62 kilograms of explosives have disappeared from the KSK alone, not the whole German military. Politicians in Germany have been in denial regarding the issue of far-rights threats within the military and the police. Weapons have been disappearing from military stockpiled without being investigated. Now, the government seems to have accepted the ugly truth and try to act on it, since cases of far-right extremists in the military and the police, some hoarding weapons and Nazi memorabilia, have multiplied drastically. The mind-set of seeing this as individual cases seems to be not making sense anymore as the numbers indicated that this phenomenon could be well organized. A Counter-intelligence unit within Germany’s military has conducted an investigation towards more than 600 soldiers for suspicion of holding far-right views.

Not only within the military, the Neo-Nazi infiltration within the police force is also concerning. For instance, there was a case in Northern Germany when a police detective started a far-right group chat that listed a list which consisted of thousands of names including politicians, journalists, and activists considered to be the enemy of the Neo-Nazi movement that must be eliminated. The authorities also found more than 50,000 rounds of ammunition hoarded by the police detective inside his apartment along with several guns and flash grenades. The detective stated that the Neo-Nazi group was filled with many police and soldiers. Another case that Germany should pay attention to is the fact that swastika graffiti and anti-Islam slogans are a regular feature in many police academies in Germany. It is also well known that the police never acted seriously in regards to cases involving Neo-Nazi, Anti-Semitism, and racism. The most well-known example of such behavior was the killing spree carried out by the self-named National Socialist Underground (NSU). Between the years 2000 and 2007, the right-wing extremist terror cell murdered nine business owners with immigrant backgrounds, as well as a female police officer. Within this case, the police focused their suspicion towards the victim’s families rather than looking for racist motives. Eventually, the murder spree was ended by the suicide of the perpetrators, a huge failure for the police due to the ignorance towards Neo-Nazi issues.

In general, Far-Right problems in Germany have been a problem for quite a long time, even infiltrated the police and military force. The problem worsens with the emergence of AFD, a Far-Right political party that legitimized the ideology under the pretext of countering the issue of foreign immigrants. The massive number of cases in regards to police and military members exposed in Neo-Nazi views, stealing weapons from the state stockpiles, created a community for like-minded people, could be seen as a signed that the whole movement is organized, thus having a plan which could endangered freedom and democracy in Germany. The government of Germany has to take the issue much more seriously to prevent the ugly past to be repeated.

Media Reports: Lebanese Prime Minister To Resign as Government Falls

Local Lebanese media reported on Monday 10 August that Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan Diab is set to resign within hours after the entire government stepped down. This comes as anti-government protesters continue to demand political change after last week’s explosion in Beirut, which killed more than 160 people and injured around 6,000.

The 4 August port warehouse detonation of more than 2,000 tonnes of ammonium nitrate destroyed a swathe of the Mediterranean city, compounding months of political and economic turmoil. Sources have indicated that the cabinet, which was formed back in January, was due to meet on Monday, with a number of ministers wanting to resign. The information and environment ministers resigned on Sunday, along with several lawmakers. On Monday, state-run National News Agency reported, citing the conduct of the government in the aftermath of last week’s blast, that Justice Minister Marie Claude Najm had reassigned earlier in the day.

Has the South China Sea become a Flash point for conflict?

The South China Sea is developing into a perfect storm for potential conflict as an unwitting host of competing claims and counterclaims of ownership – involving China, Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia – heightens the risk of a miscalculation, and military conflict. Couple that with America’s foreign policy of naval patrols and air reconnaissance missions in the disputed area, under the freedom of Navigation principle. As China and America play-out their rivalry and tensions in multiple arenas, amid the backdrop of China’s South-East Asian neighbours, wary of Beijing’s increasing assertion of its geo-political, military, economic, and diplomatic heft, there is little doubt that the South China Sea is a metaphor that brings it all to the boil.

Analysts have noted that in the grip of a global pandemic, China has sought to establish a dominant position in the area. In the last few months, Beijing has announced plans to carry out military drills in August that simulate the capture of the Dongsha Islands – which Taiwan currently controls. The New York Times also reports of allegations that China’s Coast Guard Vessel “rammed and sank” a Vietnamese fishing boat. Beijing has been accused of “stalking” a Malaysian oil vessel in waters belonging to Malaysia. The Philippines lodged a formal diplomatic compliant of a warship, purportedly Chinese, said to be pointing its radar system at a Philippine Naval Vessel. There have been reports of Chinese fishing boats turning-up in the Natuna Islands. This is an area that is internationally recognised as being part of Indonesia’s economic exclusive zone, but Chinese trawlers, backed by Chinese Coastal guard units, chase-out Indonesian fishers. The Chinese Foreign ministry sees the matter differently:

“Whether the Indonesian side accepts it or not, nothing will change the objective fact that China has rights and interests over the relevant waters,” is the official rejoinder.

Maps produced by China lay claim to large swathes of the South China Sea through its self-styled “Nine-Dash line”. An International Tribunal ruled in favour of the Philippines in its disputes over the Spratly Islands. The Arbitration Tribunal established that China’s “Nine-Dash Line” interpretation has no legality in international law. Beijing rejected the Tribunal’s ruling. That begs the question: of what significance are these waters?  The South China Sea holds a strategic allure: first, as a vital shipping lane for global trade. It is estimated that one-third of global trade flows through these waters. The South China Sea is also reported to be rich in natural resources, including petroleum and gas, which crystalizes the geo-political tussle over its ownership.

“I think it’s fair to say we’re on the front line,” said Evan A. Laksmana, a senior researcher and military analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta. “If China feels it needs to provide some retribution of some kind, if we are seen as escalating, Southeast Asia would be looked at first.” There have been calls for ASEAN countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam, and Malaysia to beef up its military security in the face of not only China’s claim to 90 percent of the South China Sea, but its building of military bases and research stations on artificial reefs.

There is no doubt China holds considerable clout in South East Asia. Indonesia calls China its biggest trading partner. Philippines, under the leadership of Rodrigo Duterte has made the pivot from America to the embrace of China to benefit from its investments, trade, and further potential economic ties. The consequence of accommodating a Chinese economic hegemony, or call it the stick and carrot approach is what Professor Alexander Vuving of Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu means when he says:  “The Chinese want to create a new normal in the South China Sea, where they are in charge, and to do that they’ve become more and more aggressive.”

America under President Trump has held a more hawkish China policy than recent US administrations and that has led to clashes over trade, telecoms giant Huwawei, Covid-19, and the security status of Hong Kong. The upshot is South East Asian countries, and China will be competing for strategic control of the South China Sea. For America, Beijing’s disputes with its neighbours offers the perfect context – for lack of a better description: to duke-out what many analysts have predicted will be the defining rivalry of the 21^st century. It is quite ironic that there is scarcely any acceptable mechanism for arbitration to this geo-political powder keg involving naked display of might and ambition of a rising power, and a perfect excuse for intervention by an established one. I guess this script has déjà vu written all over it.

Malawi Elections, Take 2

On June 23, 2020, Malawians cast their vote for a new president in fresh polls that facilitated a rerun of the highly contended presidential election results from the May 2019 poll. This election was significant for the precedent it stood to create in relation to the country of Malawi and the continent of Africa.

The dual significance of the election results was that they were a moment of firsts for both Malawi and Africa.  A first election in Malawi that was the result of intervention from the judiciary which the opposition also went on to win. This represents another watershed moment in the democratisation process in Malawi. For Africa, Malawi is the only country on the continent to have achieved such a feat, the only other country to have come close is Kenya in 2017- although the incumbent won the election rerun. This is a highly symbolic victory which gives other opposition parties in Africa the hope that they too could set precedents in their own countries. Well wishes from current and former opposition leaders in South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe attest to this. More importantly, in the wider context Malawi’s astounding results at its second go at the presidential elections is a welcome break away from the worrying trend of elections in Africa that seem to further entrench authoritarianism rather than further the democratisation process.

The election results follow a landmark ruling from February 2020 where the constitutional court annulled the presidential election results from 21 May 2019. Fresh elections were ordered to be held within 150 days, according to the court ruling. The court also judged that the first-past-the post system was unconstitutional; a gain of more than 50% would be required in future elections. That ruling in of itself represented a watershed moment in Malawi’s history because the May 2019 election was the first to be legally challenged since Malawi’s independence in 1964 and all future elections would not be contested in the same manner which has implications for how political parties will contest elections and possibly make alliances, as evidenced by the June 2020 elections. This was significant because it demonstrated that the judiciary could be politically impartial, and more importantly could make and enforce a judgment that would not be undermined or ignored by the president or ruling party as has been the case in some African countries when it comes to court rulings. The months of unrest and instability, even after the constitutional court ruling demonstrated the vested interests many Malawians, particularly some sections of its civil society had in ensuring that this historic ruling and moment would not be lost or wasted by attempts to undermine and reverse the ruling; calling the months since last year’s election “the year of mass protests”. This period was notably marked by former President Peter Mutharika’s attempts to reverse the constitutional court ruling with stalling tactics such as his refusal to assent to Parliament’s electoral reform bills and rejecting the recommendation to fire the MEC commissioners, including launching appeals to challenge the ruling from February 2020. This period has been a threat to Malawi’s long-cherished domestic stability. A petrol bomb thrown into the opposition United Transformation Movement (UTM) party headquarters on May 5, 2020, killed three innocent people. While largely peaceful, ongoing protests since the announcement of the 2019 election have, on occasion, turned violent with stores being looted and cars set on fire. Police have arrested over 200 people in connection with these crimes. Police have also been accused of sexually assaulting 17 women while cracking down on post-election protests.

The June 2020 elections resulted in the opposition led by Lazarus Chakwera’s Malawi Congress Party (MCP) winning 2.6 million of the 4 million votes cast, which represents about 59%. Contrastingly, the incumbent Peter Mutharika’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) only managed to secure 1.7 million votes, which is about 39%. After 26 years in opposition Chakwera’s MCP party unseated the incumbent DPP to win the presidency in a united 9-party coalition, the Tonse Alliance, that also included Saulos Chilima who was Chakwera’s running mate and formerly Mutharika’s vice president until he left the DPP in 2018 to form the United Transformation Movement. Chilima has been widely credited as having played a critical role in both Mutharika and Chakwera’s successful campaigns for the presidency, his savvy marketing strategy and ability to appeal to voters in all regions of the country is what arguably makes him kingmaker of sorts in the Malawian political landscape. Traditionally Malawian elections have historically shown regionalised and ethnic voting patterns, with presidential candidates drawing on compartmentalised strongholds, therefore Chilima’s ability to generate a crossover appeal was a critical advantage in the Chakwera camp.

Ultimately Malawi’s second go at the elections represented a strong political will to implement and deliver democracy at all costs, including the total neglect to maintain preventative measures to halt the spread of coronavirus as large rallies were held all over the country, with little social distancing in sight. Furthermore, the events that led up to the elections and the subsequent result is perhaps the amalgamation of deep-rooted frustrations with a struggling economy, rampant corruption and lack of police reform that are yet to be addressed in a meaningful way, and this will be one of Chakwera’s greatest challenges in his presidency.

Although Malawi’s elections present a welcome break away from some of the more problematic aspects of African politics and its electoral processes, this result is probably more meaningful in the Malawian context in terms of tangible gains and a symbolic victory in the African context. The Malawi example presents an insightful case study of how meaningful democracy, rather than mere window dressing, can be implemented with integrity when the political will is sufficient, however it is perhaps ambitious to assert that the Malawi example can replicated in other African countries in the same manner.  There are a variety of factors in the Malawi case that are not necessarily the same in other African countries which brought about the results of the 23 June 2020 rerun, there is no one-size- fits- all process when it comes to democratisation in Africa. Although a lot of credit has been given to sustained pressure from civil society in order to bring out Malawi’s electoral result and on 21 May 2020 the resignation of the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC), Jane Ansah- how the civil society is made up and operates in separate countries is not ubiquitous. Further to this there are other demographic factors such as the history of a country and its political parties and how this in turn influences the political economy of the electoral and general political landscape. Another relatively exceptional contributory factor is that Mutharika was unable to utilise the Malawi Defence Forces (MDF) to antagonise dissenters, leading him to fire General Vincent Ndundwe in March 2020 after Ndundwe was perceived to have ‘protected’ anti-government protestors. The MDF is regarded as an institution which can be counted on to uphold the constitution in times of political crisis. Malawi has been an exception for decades in a continent where armies often prop up governments, crush dissent and interfere in mainstream politics.

Malawi’s presidential election rerun, and its results have a more significant impact nationally than they do regionally, mainly because of the difficulty in replicating a similar set of events in another Africa country- owing to the range of individual country factors that are usually not ubiquitous. The highly charismatic personalities such as Saulos Chilima who are viewed as authentic and trustworthy by the electorate,  have long been in embedded in the political fabric of Malawi and his  strategic contribution is among a list of catalysts that have been part of an ongoing process which has eventually led to the 23 June 2020 outcome. Malawi’s exceptional results in the presidential election rerun is a demonstration of its democracy maturing. It stands as an encouraging positive example in the African continent , particularly for opposition parties, that where the political and public will for democratic integrity is present, change or at least steps to change are in the realm of possibility.