MENA Report
August 8, 2013 in Africa, Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia
Regional
An intercepted conference call between more than 20 al Qaeda senior leadership and representatives prompted the US to close 22 embassies through 10 August, as information drawn from the call hinted that the terrorist organization was in the final stages of preparing for an attack.
A US intelligence official indicated that the conference all included members from Nigeria’s Boko Haram, the Pakistani Taliban, al Qaeda in Iraq, al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, al Qaeda affiliates from Uzbekistan, and al Qaeda in the Sinai Peninsula. The intercept provided insight into how al Qaeda leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, manages the international terrorist organization.
During the call, al-Zawahiri announced that Nasser al-Wuhayshi, the leader of al Qaeda’s affiliate based in Yemen, had been promoted to “Ma’sul al-Amm” (general manager), making Wuhayshi the second highest position in the network, giving him operational control of Qaeda throughout the Muslim world, and effectively moving the centre of gravity for the organisation to the Middle East. Leaders of the call also indicated that a team or teams were already in place an attack. This signal prompted the closure of US embassies throughout the Muslim world. In Yemen, the UK Foreign Office (FCO) has temporarily closed the British embassy and “strongly urges” all British nationals to leave the country.
Meanwhile, Yemeni authorities issued a list of 25 wanted al-Qaida suspects on 5 August. Officials believe the group was planning terrorist attacks in Sana’a and other cities across the country.
Algeria
Algeria Enters Security Agreements with Tunisia, Libya
Algeria, a country known for being staunchly autonomous in security actions, has made agreements this week to work with other nations in the Maghreb. In the first move, The Algerian government has entered a bilateral agreement with Tunisia to eliminate terrorist threats along their shared border.
The Tunisian army has conducted attacks in the remote Jebel Chaambi area, and Algeria has deployed 10,000 soldiers along the other side of the border to monitor and prevent prevent terrorists from escaping into Algeria during the Tunisian siege.
Joint operations will be launched in phases on the ground and from the air, and the two nations will share intelligence. Intelligence services from both nations are particularly concerned as to whether the al-Qaeda allied group, Movement for Tawhid and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO), has moved from Mali to Tunisia.
However, it is likely that the terrorist group has moved to Libya, where they have the best opportunity to procure weapons of various sizes.
To that end, on 6 August, Libya and Algeria have entered an agreement to form a joint commission to fight terrorism and trafficking in the Maghreb. Algerian Prime Minister Abdel Malek Sellal has called on countries in the Maghreb to work together to secure borders from terrorists, and trafficking, including human, drugs and arms trafficking, which he said have reached ”alarming levels”.
On the international relations front, Algeria has also agreed to expand and deepen its relationship with Iran. Newly elected Iranian President Hassan Rouhani announced, “Iran is completely ready to expand and deepen bilateral relations with Algeria in economic, cultural and political fields and believes that settlement of the regional issues needs the partnership of the countries of the region.”
President Rouhani was inaugurated into office in Iran on 4 August. Algeria will be holding elections next year.
Bahrain
Bahrain’s New “Anti-Protest” Laws Draw Ire from UN
Bahrain enacted stricter penalties for protests on 31 July, which include increasing the detention period for committing or inciting an act of terrorism. Critics suspect that the law, which also includes penalties for sit-ins, rallies, and gatherings, will be used against peaceful protesters.
Anti-government rallies in Bahrain have been planned for 14 August, despite the new legislation. The UN has warned that the new laws could result in “serious consequences” to the impact of human rights.
Egypt
Political Mediation Talks Stalled
7 August: As delegates from the US, European Union, Qatar and the UAE have come to Egypt in an attempt to negotiate an end to Egypt’s political crisis, interim Egyptian President Adly Monsour has announced that mediation efforts have failed.
While visiting in hopes of mediation, US Senators John McCain and Lindsey Graham urged the Egyptian military to release political prisoners in order to start a national dialog —a statement echoed by Qatari delegates— and also told the interim government that they consider the removal of Morsi to be a military coup – a term that the Obama administration had resisted using.
In a news conference last week, Senator Graham said, “The people who are in charge were not elected. The people who were elected are in jail. The status quo is not acceptable.” Calling the removal of Morsi a “coup” triggers a cutoff to the $1.3 billion in US aid that goes to Egypt each year. However, McCain said that “cutting off aid would be the wrong signal at the wrong time.” The Obama administration has not officially commented on the statements, but sources indicate that the US Administration is distancing itself from the senators’ statements. Reports indicate that the two Senators have left Egypt.
The statement caused outrage in the Egyptian media, and drew a strong response from Interim President Adly Monsour, who called it “an unacceptable interference in internal policies”.
Egyptian authorities allowed the delegates to meet with imprisoned Brotherhood leaders, hoping to gain peaceful solution. However, the interim government has now become determined to proceed with its own road map, which includes elections in nine months. On 5 August, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State William Burns and European Union envoy Bernardino Leon met with Brotherhood deputy leader Khairat El-Shater in the prison where he is held. The delegates urged Shater to recognize that there was no realistic prospect of Morsi being reinstated, and asked for the Brotherhood’s attempts to work toward political compromise. Shater reportedly insisted they should be talking to Morsi, and the only solution was the “reversal of the coup.”
The announcement of failed talks also foreshadows a forced dispersal of pro-Morsi protesters, as sources say the government is also preparing to declare that the Muslim Brotherhood protests against the army’s overthrow of President Mohamed Morsi are non-peaceful. This is a critical signal that the government intends to remove the protesters by force, particularly in the Rabaa and al-Nahda protest camps in Cairo. Last week, security forces promised protesters safe exit if they left the camps, but warned their patience was limited.
Nearly 300 people have been killed in political violence since Morsi’s removal, including 80 killed by Egyptian security forces on 27 July.
Iran
Iran Prepared to Resume Nuclear Talks with World Leaders
In his first news conference as President, Hassan Rouhani announced that Iran is ready for “serious” and swift talks regarding the nation’s controversial nuclear program. “We are ready to engage in serious and substantial talks without wasting time,” Rouhani said, and added that Iran’s interactions with the West should be based on “talks, not threats.”
The U.S. and its allies believe Iran is trying to develop a nuclear weapon. The Iranian government insists that the program is meant for peaceful operations, such as power generation and medical isotopes. Rouhani, a former top nuclear negotiator and a moderate cleric, has raised hopes among foreign diplomats. Several rounds of talks during Ahmedinijad’s tenure failed, resulting in heavy sanctions which decimated the nation’s economy as oil exports came to a standstill, and the nation suffered blocks on international banking transactions. Rouhani has made it his priority to work toward the sanctions against Iran lifted, despite the fact that Iranian policy rests primarily with the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
On 6 August, European Union’s foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, called on Rouhani to schedule “meaningful talks” on the nuclear issue as soon as possible, adding that the five permanent UN Security Council nations, as well as Germany, are ready to continue talks to find a resolution as quickly as possible.
Rouhani believes it is possible to strike an agreement that would allow Iran to keep enriching uranium while assuring the West it will not produce nuclear arms. US President Barack Obama and other Western leaders have publicly supported diplomatic measures, though they have stated that military options are not off the table.
Rouhani indicated he would be willing to speak with representatives from Washington or the West, saying he would even go to Washington, as long as the nations “abandon the language of pressure and threat.” Rouhani did add, however, that there is a long way to go before Iran allows the U.S. consulate to resume work in Tehran.
Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged the international community to step up pressure on Tehran, saying that, “The only thing that has worked in the last two decades is pressure. And the only thing that will work now is increased pressure.” Netanyahu believes that despite Rouhani’s moderate speech, the leader backs enriching uranium for nuclear weapons.
Iraq
Series of Bomb Attacks Kill 41
A series of bomb attacks in and around Baghdad has left 41 dead and over 100 wounded. On 6 August, six car bombs targeted markets and shopping streets in different parts of Baghdad.
The bombings are the latest in a wave of violence which has swept Iraq in the past six months. The attacks predominantly stem from Sunni Islamist militant groups which mostly target Shia Muslim districts. This year, over 4,000 people have been killed in these attacks, with a further 9,865 injuries.
Citizens blame the government and security forces for failing to stem the violence. Just before the attacks began on Tuesday, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki issued a statement vowing to continue operations against militants, in a statement issued just before the attacks began. However, many Sunnis accuse Maliki’s Shia-led government of marginalising them, particularly after security forces broke up an anti-government Sunni protest in Hawija in April, killing and wounding dozens of protesters.
Libya
Libya Appoints New Defence Minister; Deputy Prime Minister resigns
On 5 August, Libya’s Congress swore in a newly appointed Defence Minister Abdullah al-Thani, despite nearly daily attacks by gunmen on security forces. al-Thani replaces Mohammed Al-Barghathi, who resigned in May following a series of raids by militias on ministries in Tripoli, pressuring lawmakers to pass a contentious bill.
Under former dictator Moamar Gadhafi, Al-Thani was detained several times because of his brother’s criticism of Libya’s intervention in the internal affairs of neighbouring Chad.
A day earlier, Libya’s Deputy Prime Minister, Awad al-Barassi resigned his post, citing failed government policies and the deterioration of security following a string of assassinations. Al-Barassi accused the prime minister of monopolizing decision-making and hindering government efforts to discharge its “responsibilities for deteriorating security, especially in (the eastern city of) Benghazi.
The Prime Minister’s office accepted the resignation, but has made no further comment.
Morocco
Moroccan King Revokes Paedophile’s Pardon
King Mohamed VI of Morocco has revoked a pardon granted to a Spanish serial paedophile. The pardon set off a series of angry protests in the kingdom.
On 30 July, the king pardoned 48 Spanish prisoners as part of the nation’s Throne Day celebrations. Among the pardoned was Daniel Galvan Vina, age 60, who was convicted of raping 11 children aged between four and 15. In September 2011, he was sentenced to 30 years in prison.
While the king often pardons prisoners on special occasions, the decision to release Spaniards was at the request of King Juan Carlos of Spain, who visited Morocco in late-July. The pardons of Spanish prisoners frustrated Moroccans, who feel the king put Spain’s interests about his nation’s needs. However the pardon of Vina sparked particular outrage.
Rallies and sit-ins were planned around the nation as King Mohamed VI withdrew the pardon. Protesters called the pardon “an international shame”. A statement explaining the pardon’s revocation stated that the decision was made due to the “gravity of the crimes committed and out of respect for the victims’ rights.”
An earlier statement from the palace indicated that the king was unaware of the nature of Vina’s crimes, and issued a probe to “determine the responsibilities and the failures that led to this regrettable release.”
Vina has left Morocco, but the Moroccan Justice Minister announced he would work with authorities in Madrid to address “the next step after the pardon’s revocation.”
Oman
Omani Maritime on the Rise
An economic update by the Oxford Business Group shows that investments by maritime services firms are helping Oman to improve its credentials as a shipping and trade centre. Oman Oil Marketing Company (OOMCO) has announced plans to develop an oil terminal at the port of Duqm to provide bunkering services to the regional market. Oman hopes to tap into growing maritime trade along its Indian Ocean coast, while simultaneously attracting more customers to the port itself.
CEO of OOMCO, Omar Ahmed Salim Qatan said, “We are in the process of negotiations to acquire a footprint in Duqm by establishing a terminal and bunkering services.” The group hopes to conclude negotiations in 2014, but a timeframe for the planned developments is still in early stages.
Qatar
Qatar Airways Suspends Operations in Tripoli
Following a series of dangerous incidents, Qatar Airways has suspended operations in Tripoli.
On 4 August, a Qatar Airways flight was prevented from landing at Tripoli International Airport when an armed group forced air traffic control staff to deny the plane permission to land. The flight was diverted to Alexandria, Egypt to refuel before returning to Doha.
A day earlier, a group of gunmen stormed the Qatar Airways office at the Tripoli airport demanding staff to leave. The group wanted to prevent Qatari passenger and cargo aircraft from landing in Libya, and force the closure of the Qatar Airways office in Tripoli. There was no explanation provided. As a result, Qatar Airways has temporarily seized operations in Tripoli
In June, Qatar Airways suspended flights to Benghazi after militiamen forced non-Libyans arriving on a flight from Doha back onto the plane and prevented Libyans from boarding it for the return flight. The militiamen accused Qatar of interfering in Libya’s internal affairs.
The Libyan Interior Ministry condemned the attack and asserted that the armed group does not
Libya. He added that the group is sending the wrong message to the international community and foreign companies, which could have a negative impact on Libya’s struggling economy.
Saudi Arabia- Sudan
Al Bashir Plane denied flyover in Saudi Airspace
On 3 August, a charter aircraft carrying Sudanese President Omar Al Bashir to attend the inauguration ceremony of Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani, has been denied flyover rights by Saudi Arabian authorities. The plane was forced to return to Khartoum.
The Saudi-registered aircraft with a non-Sudanese crew circled on the periphery of Saudi airspace for an hour, attempting to negotiate clearance. The plane had obtained prior authorisation which was withdrawn when the pilots announced that Al Bashir was on board.
Al Bashir has been indicted by the ICC on charges of war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide, and is subject to international arrest warrants. While Saudi Arabia is not part of the ICC statute, the nation has voiced concerns about Sudan’s close ties with Iran. Sudan allowed Iranian warships to dock in Port Sudan twice last year, drawing concern from the Gulf States as well as the US. The Saudi pro-government newspaper, Al Riyadh, criticised the Khartoum government over the incident, saying there is no “logical justification” for a relationship between the two countries.
In Iran, foreign ministry spokesman Abbas Araqchi called the barring of Al Bashir in their airspace “very unfortunate” and added that “Tehran is investigating”.
Syria
Syrian Rebels Capture Aleppo Airbase
Rebels fighting against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad have captured Menagh airport, a key airbase in Aleppo province, near the Turkish border. The rebels have been attempting to capture the airbase, which lies on a major supply route from Turkey, since last year. The airbase was the final piece to consolidate opposition control in the area, but rebel forces are still under daily attack from long-range artillery and air strikes.
Rebel forces have also taken over several villages in the majority Alawite province of Latakia, which is near to Bashar al Assad’s hometown of Qardaha. Rebels have been engaged in fights in Latakia since 4 August.
Meanwhile, pro-government recently recaptured the Khalidiyeh neighbourhood in Homs from rebels. However, in Aleppo, sources report army shelling of a market on Monday, resulting in the deaths of eight civilians, including three children.
Over 100,000 people have been killed in Syrian civil war, with a further 1.7 million Syrians forced to seek shelter in neighbouring countries.
Tunisia
Protesters Demand Government Resignation
Tens of thousands of protesters have swarmed Tunis to mark the six-month anniversary of the assassination of prominent secular opposition leader Chokri Belaid, and to demand the resignation of the Ennahda government.
Public outrage escalated following the assassination of a second prominent opposition leader two weeks earlier. Mohamed Brahmi was a member of the National Constituent Assembly (NCA), a group charged with working on the development of a new Tunisian constitution. Brahmi, a member of the opposition party, was shot on 25 July, nearly six months after Chokri Belaid was killed. It was later discovered that the two victims were killed by the same gun, suggesting that one group was responsible for both murders.
Following the assassinations, nearly 70 members of the ANC withdrew in protest, staging sit-in outside its headquarters in Tunis. On 7 August, the Ennahda Party accepted the suspension of the works of the NCA. The work was frozen until the dialogue between political parties resume. The protesters called for the complete dissolution of the assembly and the resignation of the government.
Following completion of the constitution, elections were to be held in December, however, it is likely they will be delayed, as the NCA is eight months behind its deadline.
The turmoil in Tunisia is at its highest levels since he ouster of President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali in January 2011.
Yemen
Yemeni authorities foil al Qaeda Plot
On 7 August, Yemeni security officials announced they had halted a plot by al Qaeda to seize an important port and kidnap or kill foreigners working there. According to Yemeni officials, al Qaeda had planned to take control of the Mina al-Dhaba oil terminal, in the Mukallah region on the Arabian Sea in Yemen’s south-eastern region. The officials continue that al Qaeda operatives intended to conduct the attacks while wearing fraudulent Yemeni military uniforms. It is unclear how the Yemeni government halted the plan.
Yemen has been in a state of high alert following an intercepted call in which al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri announced the promotion of Yemen-based Nasser al-Wuhayshi to the No. 2 position of the organisation. The US and Britain withdrew embassy staff from Yemen and encouraged all foreign nationals to leave the country. The US has conducted a series of drone strikes in the last two weeks. On 6 August, a stroke killed four people, and on 7 August, a targeted drone killed seven members of a Bedouin tribe in southeast Yemen.
The al Qaeda group in Yemen, al Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) makes frequent threats. In the midst of economic woes and political tensions, Yemen remains under international pressure to show that it is working to counter the terrorist threat.
Mali Set For A Second Round of Elections
August 2, 2013 in AfricaMali’s interim government announced on Friday that the country’s presidential elections will go to a second round, which has been scheduled for August 11, after no candidates succeeded in securing a majority in the landmark polls.
Figures for Sunday’s ballot, which were announced on live television, indicated that former Prime Minister Ibrahim Boubacar Keita came in first in Mali’s presidential elections, gaining 39.2 percent of the vote, however he will face his main rival, ex-Finance Minister Soumalia Cisse, who attained 19.4 percent of the vote, after he failed to secure an outright majority. The results, which were announced by Territorial Administration Minister Moussa Sinko Coulibaly, are provisional and need to be confirmed by the West African nation’s Constitutional Court. No candidate gained the fifty percent of the vote that is necessary in order to declare a victory. Dramane Dembele, the candidate for Mali’s largest political party, the Alliance for Democracy in Mali, polled just 9.6 percent, taking third place. Twenty-four other presidential candidates also took part in the polls. It is widely believed that Mr. Dembele’s votes, along with those of fourth placed candidate Modibo Sidibe, which amount to a total of 14.5 percent, are likely to be transferred to Cisse in the run-off.
The announcement of a run-off will likely ease tensions which have risen since partial results earlier in the week gave Mr. Keita a large lead, indicating that he may win outright. Although Sunday’s voting was carried out in a peaceful manner, and has been praised by observer missions, Mr. Cisse’s party on Wednesday has announced that the elections had been marred by what it termed as “ballot stuffing,” a form of electoral fraud in which people submit multiple ballots during a vote in which only one ballot per person is allowed. Critics have argued that Mali, which was under pressure from the international community, may have rushed into the polls and risked mishandling the elections which would result in more harm than good. However the country has been praised by the international community for running a transparent, credible and peaceful election. In response to Wednesday’s allegations, acting President Dioncounda Traore and United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon have acknowledged that the vote may be “imperfect” in a country were 500,000 citizens continue to be displaced by a military coup that was launched in March 2012. They have however urged Malians to respect the outcome.
Despite heavy security during voting, after the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa, one of the main armed groups in northern Mali, announced that it would “strike polling stations more than 3.5 million Malians cast their ballot, resulting in a 51.5 percent turnout which eclipsed its next best of 38 percent. The turnout was also higher than the United States has managed in three of its presidential elections since 1984. This high turnout has in effect demonstrated that Malians are ready to get back to the democratic government that was present prior to a military coup which led to armed Islamist militants taking over the northern regions of the country.
Considerations on Yemen’s National Dialogue Conference
August 2, 2013 in Africa, YemenYemen began the process of the National Dialogue Conference (NDC) in March to address the issues that have divided the nation in the aftermath of the Arab Spring. The dialogue brings together 565 representatives from various groups across Yemen. Each delegate’s votes and ideas are meant to carry equal weight, regardless of age, gender, background, or social status. By autumn, participants will detail a list of grievances, and suggestions for reform. The group will work together to develop conceptual ideas for a new constitution and system of governance. Of the many nations that have undergone a version of the Arab Spring, Yemen is the only country to enact such a dialogue. However, the NDC has been accused of being Utopian in its endeavours, as Yemen is facing deep issues that stem from decades long grievances. In order for it to be effective, the National Dialogue needs to address several dissimilar issues, and unite them into the definitive goal.
HUMANITARIAN CRISIS
Yemen is one of the poorest countries in the Arab world, due to a combination of factors including: declining oil resources, crippled economy due to political climate, and the lack of potable water for livestock and agriculture. Yemen’s economy is dependent on foreign aid and remittance from Yemenis who are employed in other parts of the Arabian Peninsula. The majority of the nation survives on under $2 USD per day.
A report released in July by the UN World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that 5 million Yemenis, over one fifth of the population, are suffering from severe hunger and an additional 5 million don’t have sufficient access to food. More than half of Yemen’s population does not have access to clean water and sanitation, and 6 million lack access to basic health care, including life-saving reproductive health services
WATER DEPENDENCE
According to a prominent Yemeni newspaper, Al-Thawra, nearly 80 percent of conflicts in Yemen’s rural regions are water-related. Water- and land-related disputes result in about 4,000 deaths nationwide each year. An estimated 13.1 million Yemenis do not have access to proper drinking water.
Decaying dams cause the loss of precious water, and wells for groundwater are contaminated by sewage. In 2011, water consumption from the Sana’a Basin was five times more than the natural rate of recharge. It is estimated that in a little more than 10 years, Sana’a will be the world’s first capital to run out of water. Yemeni officials have considered relocating the capital to the coast, or enacting desalination and conservation projects, and siphoning water from other source, but each option either delays the inevitable, or brings its own set of problems.
QAT PRODUCTION
Further complicating the water crisis is the national addiction to qat (or khat). Qat, a narcotic and a mild stimulant, comes from a flowering plant which is native to the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. It is a natural appetite suppressant, often chewed in place of meals. Due to its shelf life of only 48 hours, qat was not readily available on the market in Yemen until the 1970s when better roads were created which eased transport of the crop. Today, it features prominently in Yemeni culture. According to the World Health Organization, up to 90 percent of adult men in Yemen chew qat for three to four hours each day.
However, qat cultivation is extremely water-intensive, drawing as much as 40% of the water from the Sana’a Basin. Currently, qat production is also expanding at a rate of 12% per year, displacing vital crops and sending food prices soaring.
ECONOMIC INSTABILITY
Yemen’s economic concerns existed at the outset of unification, as both parts of Yemen had underdeveloped economies. In the north, severe droughts had long-lasting damaging effects on the agricultural sector, particularly coffee crops— the nation’s main import. Shortly after uniting, and due Yemen’s support of Iraq during the Persian Gulf War, nearly a million Yemenis were expelled from Saudi Arabia, cutting remittance that the nation relied heavily on. Both Saudi Arabia and Kuwait also drastically reduced economic aid.
Today, Yemen’s economy remains weak. The nation’s employment rate is roughly 35%, and a population boom with a growing youth sector searching for work continues to have detrimental impact on the economy. GDP has been declining at a rate of 10% per year since 2011. Yemen has also dealt with rapid inflation rates; in 1990, $1 US was equal to 11.70 Yemeni Rial. Today, one dollar equals 214.90 Yemeni Rial.
Yemen is predominantly agrarian, and suffers from dwindling natural resources. The economy depends heavily on the oil reserves in the south, but those reserves are expected to be depleted by 2017. This loss of oil could result in devastating economic collapse.
SECESSIONIST MOVEMENT
Apart from natural resources and economic weakness, the National Dialogue must also deal with a country divided. At the outset, representatives from South Yemen chose to abstain from attending the dialogue, as it does not address the secessionist movement. A delegate from the NDC was quoted as saying, “There are two Yemens: the Yemen inside the conference and the Yemen outside it.”
North and South Yemen were united in 1990. Following unification, residents in South Yemen felt economically and socially marginalised from the north. In May 1994, the country burst into a crippling civil war which would last for nearly three months, and kill 5,000 people. The North ultimately won the war, however in the aftermath, thousands of southern military and civil employees were forced into early retirement and given pensions below the sustenance level.
Residents of South Yemen continued to feel excluded from Yemeni society and governance. As the years progressed, the South Yemeni’s feeling of resentment and cultural distinction has continued to grow. In 2007, a group called the South Yemen Movement began calling for the re-establishment of an independent southern state. The South Yemen Insurgency embarked on a series of violent attacks aimed at seceding from North Yemen. In 2011, the Arab Spring became an opening for groups in the south to reassert their desire for federalism or separation.
In March, parties who advocated separating from the North announced their boycott of the NDC. Also boycotting are those who support federalism in a united Yemen. On 18 March, the opening day of the conference, a million-man demonstration took place in Aden calling for an honest dialogue. The demonstration’s motto: “The Decision Is Ours.”
TERRORISM, KIDNAPPING AND RADICALISED GROUPS
In 2006, 23 members of al-Qaeda escaped from prison in Sanaa. The group, calling themselves “al-Qaeda in Yemen” became the forerunners of the larger and more infamous terrorist organisation, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, (AQAP). The group surfaced following an announcement that Yemeni and Saudi terrorists were unifying under a common banner, and they intended to create a hug for hub for regional terrorism. AQAP soon became the most aggressive arm of al-Qaeda, and the most widely known terrorist organization in Yemen. The group is based in tribal areas outside of Sanaa, which for the most part remain largely outside the control of the Yemeni Government.
The US has been working with Yemen to fight al-Qaeda. On 28 July, a US drone strike hit two vehicles belonging to al-Qaeda militants. Six people were killed, three of whom were al-Qaeda militants. The strikes stir feelings of resentment in the Yemenis: although the US is conducting drone strikes to eradicate the terrorist group, the number of drone strikes has escalated. In 2011, the US conducted 18 strikes; in 2012 there were 53. While civilians were not targeted in the strikes, residents in the area have been killed, or had their home or land destroyed. The result is resentment toward not only the United States, but the Yemeni government, who citizens feel should prevent the strikes.
Al Qaeda-linked militants, as well as disgruntled tribesmen, have also been responsible for hundreds of kidnappings. In May, three members of the Red Cross were abducted, including a Swiss national. In June, gunmen abducted a Dutch couple, as well as two South Africans in the southern city of Taiz. On 21 July, al-Qaeda militants abducted Iranian diplomat Nour Ahmad Nikbakht in Sana’a. Hostages are sometimes taken as a bartering chip to release friends relatives, or demand improvement of public services. However, in more malicious attacks, the hostages are taken in order to make a political statement (particularly if the hostage is from the West), or demand a ransom.
CONCLUSION
The Yemeni National Dialogue has been applauded for being the first initiative to address Yemen’s needs with representatives from throughout the Yemeni diaspora. The nation has been applauded for the unique path that it has chosen to address deep-rooted issues in the hopes of developing a new constitution and preparing for elections in 2014.
It is imperative that Yemen, which is dealing with 20 hour blackouts, food and water shortages, economic instability, secessionists and terrorism, identify and address the impact that each issue subsequently has on the next. Political transition will be neither permanent nor widely accepted until the nation grapples with the humanitarian crisis. While the dialogue addresses national concerns, participants should be wary of neglecting the opinions of those who boycotted, particularly in the South lest they risk the ire of terrorist organizations or militant secessionists who anticipate being further marginalised.
However, hopes remain high within Yemen, as political figures and laypersons, for the first time, have equal footing in developing Yemen’s future.
Preliminary Results from Malian Elections Announced while Togo’s Opposition Party Rejects Parliamentary Election Results
July 31, 2013 in Africa, Mali, TogoWhile official results from Sunday’s presidential elections in Mali are not expected to be announced until Friday, the country’s interim government has stated that initial results indicate that Mali’s ex-Prime Minister Ibrahim Boubakar Keita has a clear lead in the polls that are intended to restore democratic rule in Mali. Meanwhile in Togo’s opposition party has rejected the ruling party’s win in the recent Parliamentary vote.
With a third of the votes counted in Mali’s presidential elections, the country’s interim government has stated on Tuesday that former Prime Minister Keita is expected to win the elections, with former Finance Minister Soumalia Cisse expected to gain second place. Col Moussa Sinko Coulibaly, the Minister of Territorial Administration, stated to journalists in the capital city of Bamako that “there is one candidate, Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, who has a wide margin compared with other candidates…. If maintained, there will not be a need for a second round.” Mr. Cisse’s camp however has rejected the results, calling for an international commission to count the ballots that were case in Sunday’s poll. His spokesman, Amadou Koita, has called the announcement “scandalous” and has questioned why Col Coulibaly refused to provide figures to back up his statement. International observers have urged Malians to accept the outcome of the elections while Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara, who is the current head of the regional Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), has expressed confidence that the Malian contenders will accept the voters‘ choice.
The announcement of a possible winner in Mali’s critical presidential elections comes just days after France hailed the elections as a success. The European Union also indicated on Monday that the elections had gone well and that they had been marked by enthusiasm amongst voters despite threats from Islamist terrorists that polling stations throughout the country would be attacked.
Sunday’s vote was the first election to be held since an uprising by Tuareg separatists sparked a military coup in March of last year, which toppled democratically elected President Amadou Toumani Toure and effectively plunged the country into a political crisis which opened the way for Islamist militants to occupy the vast northern desert regions for ten months before being ousted by a French-led military offensive that was launched in January of this year. The presidential elections are seen as critical in not only completing the transition towards a democracy but also in maintaining stability and security.
On Monday, Togo’s main opposition rejected the provisional electoral results which showed that the ruling party won two-thirds of the parliamentary seats, effectively allowing the current President’s family to maintain its decades-long grip on power. Although the full elections results of the country’s parliamentary elections were announced by the Electoral Commission on Sunday night, Togo’s main opposition coalition, Let’s Save Togo, had already alleged earlier in the day that irregularities had occurred during the elections. The following day, Agbeyome Kodjo, a key figure within the Let’s Save Togo party, called the vote and results a “sham,” stating that “its an electoral sham amid massive corruption and proven electoral fraud.” The West African nation’s constitutional court must now approve the results from Thursday’s elections before they can become final.
According to results that were released by the Electoral Commission on Sunday evening, President Faure Gnassingbe’s UNIR party won 62 of the 91 seats, giving the party a two-thirds majority in Parliament. If the results are approved by the constitutional court, the President’s party will effectively have control over an even greater percentage of seats than it currently holds. During the 2007 legislative elections, the UNIR party won 50 of 81 seats. The closest opposition party was Let’s Save Togo, which won 19 seats. During Thursday’s elections, the UNIR performed particularly well in the northern region of the country, which is its traditional stronghold. Meanwhile Let’s Save Togo is stronger in the south, winning seven of the ten seats in the capital city of Lome. The second-largest opposition group in the elections, the Rainbow coalition, obtained six seats in Parliament. In a statement that was released late on Monday, the party also rejected the results of the polls, alleging that “several serious anomalies and cases of massive fraud” were recorded during the elections.
Despite the opposition coalition stating that there were irregularities that occurred during the elections, observers from the African Union (AU) and West African bloc ECOWAS have stated that the elections were held in acceptable conditions. In turn, the United States Embassy in Togo congratulated the Electoral Commission on Monday on the peaceful outcome of the elections, urging all the political parties to “respect the wish of the Togolese people.” A statement released by the US Embassy stated that “we urge all the political parties to respect the wish of the Togolese people and resolve all differences in a peaceful manner, in conformity with the electoral law.” The Embassy also urged that the new national assembly undertake the strengthening of democracy and to work for a more prosperous future for the Togolese.
The long-delayed vote came after months of protests, with the opposition coalition seeking to bring about sweeping electoral reforms. Many of the protests were dispersed by security forces who fired tear gas into the crowds, while some thirty-five people, mostly opposition members, were detained in the run-up to the vote in connection with a number of suspicious fires that had occurred at two major markers. Thirteen opposition members have since been released, including five candidates who participated in Thursday’s polls. Over the coming days, as the results of the elections are either confirmed or denied by the constitutional court, it is highly likely that protests may break out if it is announced that the current President’s party has won a majority of the seats in Parliament.
Wave of Terrorism in Pakistan
July 30, 2013 in Africa
In the early hours of this morning, Tuesday, 30th July, the Pakistani Taliban (the TTP) launched an assault on a prison in north-west Pakistan, freeing nearly 250 militants. This incident comes on the day the Pakistani parliament is electing a new president and on top of severe violence throughout the country in the past month following the election of new Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. An extremely high level of caution and security awareness should be maintained at all times throughout the country.
Today’s attack occurred in the town of Dera Ismail Kahn, in the Khyber Paktunkhwa province which borders the notorious Federally Administrated Tribal Areas (FATA), a haven for militant activity. Up to 100 militants, some dressed in police uniforms, bombarded the prison with mortars and RPGs before launching an assault that lasted for 3 or 4 hours and left at least 13 dead, including 6 police officers. The attackers reportedly used a loudhailer to call the names of specific inmates, set ambushes for the authority’s reinforcements, and then booby trapped the prison – all of which suggests a complex attack planned in advance.
The town’s prison is a century old, and was not designed to hold high security prisoners. Nevertheless, at the time of the attack it contained hundreds of militants from the TTP and other banned groups. Among the fugitives there are reportedly around 30 “hardened militants” who had been jailed for their involvement in major attacks and suicide bombings. As of writing, 14 of the escapees have been recaptured, while the rest are almost certainly fleeing into the FATA – something that will almost certainly make any future apprehension by the state authorities extremely difficult.
The attack is a major embarrassment for the Pakistani state authorities, particularly in light of reports that suggest intelligence was received over a fortnight ago about a planned assault on the jail. The attack is also remarkably similar to an incident in April, 2012 in nearby Bannu, which freed over 400 inmates – questions will likely be asked about how militants successfully executed an almost identical raid over a year later. The TTP also said one of its key leaders freed in the 2012 raid was behind the planning of this most recent incident.
Today’s incident comes in the wake of numerous violent attacks across Pakistan in recent weeks. On Saturday, July 27th, 57 people were killed in an attack on a market in Parachinar, Kurram province, which borders Afghanistan to the west. On the same day, nine people were killed in attacks on security force check points, including in the western city of Gwador on the border with Iran. On Wednesday, July 24th, militants stormed the regional headquarters in Sukkur of the Inter-Services Intelligence agency (ISI), killing 9, including police and intelligence officials. On the 30th June, 56 were killed in bomb attacks in Quetta and Peshawar, while another attack earlier that month killed 11 foreign mountaineers.
Pakistan has been in the grip of a domestic insurgency led by the TTP since 2007, which has killed thousands of civilians and members of the security forces, and terrorism is endemic to the country as a whole. The TTP in particular has strong connections with other Sunni jihadist organisations such as Al Qaeda, but tends to focus its attacks normally on organs of the Pakistani state and government.
However, the Pakistani state’s response to the TTP and other militant organisations has been extremely flawed, with few notable successes. There are also seemingly justified accusations that elements of the security forces, particularly within the ISI, provide major support to militants. Aside from attacks against state institutions, civilian members of Pakistan’s Shia minority tend to be the most frequent targets of attacks by the Sunni militant groups.
The continuing violence throughout the country in the past months is already becoming a particular problem for the new government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, in power since May this year. He is under extreme pressure to outline how he plans to bring the security situation under control, but many observers believe he currently lacks a coherent strategy, choosing instead to prioritise economic development. The BBC recently obtained a leaked copy of a ‘Draft National Counter-terrorism and Extremism Policy’ which lambasted the political leadership of Pakistan for allowing the security situation to deteriorate to its current level, and argued the activities of militants where “the most serious crisis face by the country since independence”. While it is unclear whether the authors of the document were referring to the new government or the previous, new Prime Minister Sharif is certainly yet to take major steps to counter militant activity.
While the death of foreigners in terrorist attacks still remains relatively rare, visitors to Pakistan should be aware of the extremely high risk of terrorist activity throughout the entire country. Common targets include government buildings, markets, holy sites and ‘Western’ areas. An extremely high degree of security awareness should be maintained at all times. In addition, all travel to the remote tribal regions in the North and West should be avoided.
