MS Risk Blog

Doubts Emerge Over Death of Boko Haram Leader

Posted on in Africa, Nigeria title_rule

Doubts have emerged this week over the Nigerian military’s claims that the leader of Islamist extremist group Boko Haram may have been killed.  Questions have been raised over the timing of the announcement, which came on the day that the Joint Task Force (JTF) concluded its work and handed over its duties to a newly created military division that has been charged with the battle to end Boko Haram’s four-year insurgency.

On Monday, a security task force in north-eastern Nigeria issued a statement indicating that Abubakar Shekau, who was declared a “global terrorist” by the United States, “may have died” from a gunshot wound after a clash with soldiers on Jun 30.”  The statement further noted that “it is greatly believed that Shekau may have died between 25 July to 3 August 2013” after being taken over the border into Amitchide in neighboring Cameroon.  The statement also indicated that an intelligence report suggests that Shekau was shot when soldiers raided a Boko Haram base at Sambisa Forest in north-eastern Nigeria.

However by Tuesday, local media reported that there had been increasing unease within the military pertaining to the claims.  Task force spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Sagir Musa declined to comment when contacted about the statement, indicating only that he had left Maiduguri, which is the epicentre of Boko Haram’s insurgency and where the force was based.  National defence spokesman Brigadier General Chris Olukolade has also distanced himself from the statement.  Some sources have indicated that senior members within the military were unhappy with the release of the statement as there was not yet enough evidence to make such claims and that intelligence was still being analyzed.

Claims of Shekau’s death come one week after the Nigerian military stated that on 14 August, it had killed Boko Haram’s second-in-comment, Momodu Bama, also known by his alias “Abu Saad.”  However so far, there have been confirmations relating to his death.  In turn, a video message released on 12 August depicted a man who appeared to be Shekau, who insisted that he was in good health.  He had also referred to attacks which had occurred in early August.  The military statement released on Monday however has specified that the video was a fake.  So far there have been no independent confirmations pertaining to this video.

Washington’s response to these latest claims have come with the US State Department stating that it had seen the reports pertaining to Shekau and that it was currently “working to ascertain the facts,” nothing that he had already been falsely reported dead in 2009.  US State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf added that “he is the most visible leader of Boko Haram, and if his death turns out to be true, the loss of such a central and well-known figure would set back Boko Haram’s operations and remove a key voice from its efforts to mobilize violent extremists in Nigeria and around the world.”

Shekau has been considered the leader of Boko Haram ever since the terrorist group’s founder Muhammad Yusuf, died in 2009 while in police custody.  Since taking over, the terrorist group’s insurgency has seen a violent turn, with thousands being killed in attacks that have been carried out on school children, teachers the UN, the police, north-eastern traditional leaders, journalists, mobile phone towers and ordinary Nigerians going about their lives.  In March of this year, the United States placed a US $7 million (5.3 million euro) bounty on his head.  If these most recent claims of Abubakar Shekau’s death are confirmed, his passing will likely represent a significant moment in the future of the terrorist group, however it is unlikely that Boko Haram will end its violence in the northern regions of the Nigeria.  Instead, this may fuel further retaliatory attacks that will likely target political and security officials along with military bases.  Furthermore, the group has a number of factions, such as al-Qaeda-linked Ansaru, which has claimed responsibility for the kidnapping and killing of a number of Westerners.  Such factions are believed to operate independently and any confirmations of Shekau’s death will likely result in retaliatory kidnappings and attacks that will be linked to his death.

 

 

 

Korean Peninsula Calm as War Games Begin

Posted on in North Korea, South Korea title_rule

Annual joint military exercises between the American and South Korean (Republic of Korea, or ROK) armed forces began yesterday, the 19th of August, in an atmosphere of surprising calm on the Korean peninsula. These war games have often seen strident criticism from the ROK’s secretive neighbour North Korea (the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, or DPRK) in the past. Particularly given the drastic escalation of tensions that occurred earlier this year, the relative inexperience of the DPRK’s new leader Kim Jong-Un, and the unpredictable nature of the DPRK itself, the exercises had been seen as a potential flashpoint. While some North Korean rhetoric condemning the exercises has emerged in the past hour, it is noticeably milder than usual and seemingly indicates the DPRK’s current preference for a resumption of diplomatic talks.

The exercises, named Ulchi Freedom Guardian, involve 30’000 American and 50’000 South Korean troops. These computer simulated war games will continue until the 30th of August, according to the ROK’s defence ministry and the US military command in Seoul. These annual exercises are of a primarily defensive nature according to Kim Min-seok, a spokesman for ROK defence ministry “Ulchi Freedom Guardian…is a joint exercise by South Korea and the United States to prepare for possible provocation from North Korea. The Korean peninsula is under constant threat from the North and the joint exercise is indispensable to maintaining stability” while ROK president Park Guen-hye cited the drills as vital for South Korea’s “readiness posture”.

In previous years, North Korea has acted extremely aggressively to these exercises, denouncing them in media statements and suggesting they are preparation for an invasion. During the extreme escalation of tensions on the peninsula in spring, Pyongyang threatened retaliation with nuclear weapons if US-South Korean war games went ahead. In the build-up to these well publicised exercises however, the atmosphere remained calm. This morning, the North Korean Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea belatedly released a statement via state media condemning the drills as a “provocation” and threated South Korea with unspecified consequences.

However, this rhetoric is extremely mild by North Korean standards, particularly in light of Pyongyang’s behaviour earlier this year. During that period, in response to increased UN sanctions in light of its nuclear weapons program, the DPRK severed communication links with the south, made almost daily threats of nuclear annihilation, and moved military hardware such as missiles towards the coastal regions, placing nations throughout East Asia on alert.

Since then however, tensions have begun to calm, with the resumption of talks between the two Koreas beginning. The countries are working towards reopening the joint Kaesong industrial park, which has North Korean workers and South Korean managers. The park is seen as an important barometer of relations between the countries, and was closed earlier this year. A possible re-opening would be a notable conciliatory gesture from the North, though one not without self-interest, as the park provides a much needed source of hard currency for the impoverished DPRK.  Pyongyang also agreed on Sunday to talks about reuniting families separated by the end of the Korean War in 1953, another measure that was seen as a key inter-Korea cooperation project. Lastly, the DPRK is also angling for a resumption of South Korean tourist tours of Diamond Mountain, suspended since the shooting of a South Korean woman by a North Korean soldier in 2008 and also a much needed source of foreign currency for the DPRK.

As such, it currently appears that the North has chosen to take a calm approach to the current exercises in order to facilitate much needed diplomatic gains. This is a common practice in DPRK foreign policy – a rapid escalation of tensions featuring apocalyptic threats is followed by equally sudden de-escalation, with the promise of talks on diplomatic issues used as leverage to extract developmental aid and other concessions. The DPRK’s mild behaviour and current easing of tensions is likely a manifestation of this trend.

West Africa Piracy Report

Posted on in Africa, Piracy title_rule

Hijacks

  • 12 August 2013 – About 11 pirates armed with guns boarded and hijacked a Marshall Islands-flagged chemical tanker, the SP Atlanta, at anchor at 0330 LT in Lagos Anchorage, Nigeria.  They stole the crew members personal belongings and caused minor injuries to those on board the tanker.  Update (13 August 2013) The vessel was released and safely arrived at Lagos anchorage.  No further details have been released.

Unsuccessful Attacks/Robberies

  • 15 August 2013 – About 8 – 10 robbers in a speed boat tried to place a hook to the railings of a chemical tanker at 0240 UTC at Lagos anchorage, Nigeria.  Robbers were spotted by the crew and the alarm was raised.  Other ships were informed on the VHF Radio.  Local authorities were informed and a naval patrol arrived at the location and conducted a search, resulting in the boat moving away from the vessel.  The vessel has been reported safe.
  • 12 August 2013 – Nigeria-flagged OSV came under attack at 2140 UTC, about 35 nautical miles off the Nigerian Coast.  Two gunboats with approximately 7 – 8 pirates on board fired upon the OSV.  A patrol boat was in the location and responded to the emergency calls.  Patrol boat exchanged fire with the pirates.  Pirate boats then headed north at a high speed.
  • 11 August 2013 – Robbers in a small skiff approached an anchored Liberia-flagged product tanker, FPMC 25, at 0005 LT, Lagos anchorage, Nigeria.  Master raised the alarm and all crew members were mustered into the citadel.  The armed security team on board the vessel fired warning shots, resulting in the skiff moving away.
  • 31 July 2013 (Late Report) – Robbers boarded an anchored Cayman Islands UK-flagged bulk carrier, the Athos, at 2300 LT while in Abidjan anchorage, Cote d’Ivoire.  The robbers used a long pole with a hook in order to board the vessel.  The crew members on board the bulk carrier spotted the robbers and raised the alarm.  Upon hearing this, the robbers escaped on a wooden boat.  All crew has been reported safe and nothing was stolen.
  • 30 July 2013 (Late Report) – A gunboat claiming to be a Nigerian boat called a Hong-Kong-flagged chemical tanker, the High Jupiter, on VHF, requesting details of the tanker, cargo, last and next ports.  The call was made at 1345 LT while the tanker was about 45 nautical miles south of Brass, Nigeria.  This information was passed to the gun boat.  Around fifteen minutes later, the gun boat approached the tanker at a high speed, demanding that the tanker stop and permit boarding.  The Master informed that he would not be stopping as the area was a high risk for piracy attacks.  The gunboat threatened and followed the tanker for 20 minutes during which two shots were fired in the air.  The Master of the chemical tanker raised the alarm over VHF and requested ships in the vicinity to relay its message to port control which was not responding to its calls.  Upon hearing the VHF alarm, the gunboat moved away from the chemical tanker.  The tanker and its crew members has been reported safe.

 Weather Analysis

  • Gulf of Guinea – South-southwest winds of 10 – 15 knots and seas of 4 – 6 feet.
  • Extended Forecast – South-southwest winds of 10 – 15 knots and seas of 4 – 6 feet.
  • Synoptic Discussion – The Gulf of Guinea is under the influence of high and low pressure systems, bringing strong southerly winds and moisture into the area.  Expect mostly cloudy conditions with rain showers and possible thunderstorms.

Keita Officially Announced as President Of Mali

Posted on in Mali title_rule

Officials in Mali have announced that Ibrahim Boubacar Keita is the new leader, confirming that the ex-Prime Minister had won a landslide victory.

Figures for Sunday’s second round of voting were announced on live television by the Interior Minister, showing that Mr. Keita had won an overwhelming 77.6 percent of the vote, with his rival Soumalia Cisse gaining 22.4 percent.  According to Interior Minister Sinko Coulibaly, the turnout for the presidential elections was recorded at 45.8 percent, while just 93,000 ballots were spoiled, compared with 400,000 in the first round.  Former Finance Minister Cisse had already conceded the run-off vote to Mr. Keta after it became apparent on Monday morning that victory was beyond his grasp.  The 68-year-old will now oversee more than US $4 billion (£2.6 billion) in foreign aid promised to rebuild the country after a turbulent eighteen months.  The new government which he will lead will also be obliged to open peace talks with the separatist Tuareg rebels within two months following a ceasefire that enabled voting to take place in the northern regions of the country.  Cementing national reconciliation will likely be a challenge for the newly formed government as many in the southern regions of the country continue to be hostile towards funneling more of Mali’s already scarce resources to a region they see as being responsible for the country’s plight.  In turn, there is a continued unease between a number of ethnic groups, not only between the north and south, but also within the north itself.

While these elections are expected to provide the conflict-scarred nation a fresh start, Mr. Keita’s regime begins already mired in controversy after it emerged on Wednesday that Captain Amadou Sanogo, who led a group of fellow mid-level officers to overthrow then-president Amadou Toumani Toure on March 22 of last year, had been promoted.  Just two days after Ibrahim Boubacar Keita emerged as Mali’s president-elect, a defence ministry spokesman confirmed that “today, the cabinet approved the nomination of Captain Amadou Sanogo for the grade of Lieutenant-General.”  Human Rights Watch (HRW) has described Sanogo’s elevation from captain to the rank of lieutenant-general as “outrageous,” further adding that “Sanogo and forces loyal to him have been implicated in extremely serious abuses, including arbitrary detention, enforced disappearances, attacks against journalists and torture.”  Most of these crimes were committed during 2012 in the months after the March coup d’etat.  The HRW also noted that “instead of being rewarded with this promotion, Sanogo should have been investigated for his alleged involvement in these acts.”

Egypt Update

Posted on in Egypt title_rule

For the first time since 2011, most citizens of Egypt obeyed a 2100h curfew, following the deadliest day since the country’s uprisings began in 2011. The nation has declared a month-long state of emergency following the deadliest day since the start of the 2011 revolution, with curfews in effect in 14 of the 27 provinces.

Following the removal of Egyptian President and Muslim Brotherhood member Mohamed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood and pro-Morsi supporters engaged in nearly six weeks of protest. Middle Eastern and Western diplomats attempted to negotiate a political resolution of inclusion, however the attempts failed and protesters remained firmly in place.

Interior Minister Mohamad Ibrahim declared “Zero Hour” yesterday morning (14 August), initializing a plan to remove pro-Morsi protesters from camps at Nahda Square in Giza, and the camp near Rabaa al-Adawiyah mosque in Cairo. Operations began at 7 a.m. local time, with security forces first allowing safe passage for protesters to leave the site voluntarily prior to the clearing operations. Nahda Square in Giza was cleared within three hours; the camp at Rabaa Al-Adawiyah Mosque took 12 hours.

In a televised statement, the Egyptian Interior Minister described a scene in which protesters in Rabaa camp had created barricades, and were armed with weapons ranging from small firearms to “heavy weapons and rocket-propelled grenades.”  Early in the day, over 200 protesters from both camps were arrested for possessing firearms, bladed weapons, grenades, and gas canisters. Ibrahim continued, “Many protesters fired excessively from roof tops on security forces.”

 

Violence Spreads

Egyptian police troops and anti-riot squads continued with the forcible removal of the protesters. Violence escalated as protesters accused the forces of firing into the crows, igniting a rapid escalation of violence. Throughout the day, mayhem spread across Egypt. Muslim Brotherhood supporters attacked several police stations, including firing a rocket-propelled grenade into a station in Kerdasa, in Giza. A news broadcast showed Muslim Brotherhood supporters pushing an armoured vehicle off Cairo’s October 6 Bridge onto the road below. In addition, at least seven Coptic Christian churches, and over 40 Coptic-owned or operated institutions throughout Egypt were targeted, including bookshops and pharmacies. Coptic rights organizations say the numbers are a low estimate.

By mid-afternoon, Muslim Brotherhood protesters had attacked the historic Library at Alexandria and the Malawy Museum in Minya, with reports of looting of some of its contents. The attacks sparked an immediate and indefinite shut-down of all ancient or historic sites and museums across the nation. All branches of the central bank were closed, and train services running north and south were suspended to prevent transport of protestors.

According to the Ministry of Health, by 7 am on the 15th, there were 525 casualties, including 43 policemen, and 3,717 injuries. Representatives from the Muslim Brotherhood have placed the number of death at 2,000. Among those killed were three journalists: Mick Deane, 61, a cameraman for British broadcaster Sky News; Habiba Ahmed Abd Elaziz, 26, a reporter for the UAE-based Gulf News; and Ahmed Abdel Gawad of Egypt’s state-run newspaper, Al Akhbar. Deane and Elaziz were shot to death; however there is no information on how Gawad was killed.

 

Baradei Resigns

In Cairo, Interim Vice President El Baradei offered his resignation in protest to the violence sparked by the forcible removal of the protests. He had argued for a peaceful solution; allowing the protesters to remain in place and letting the gatherers decrease from attrition, as individuals became more resigned the reality that Morsi would not return, and they turn their focus to other issues, such as returning to work or finding means to support their family. In his resignation letter, he states, “It has become hard for me to keep bearing responsibility for decisions that I did not approve of and warned against their consequences. I cannot be responsible before God for a single drop of blood.”

The announcement caused very mixed reaction; some say the leader abandoned Egypt at a tough time. The Tamarod (rebel) campaign, which spearheaded the 30 June protests which resulted in Morsi’s removal from power, issued a statement on Facebook, calling El Baradei’s resignation an “escape from responsibility,” and adding, “We were hoping that El Baradei would do his role in explaining the situation to the global public opinion and international community and clarify that Egypt is facing organised terrorism, which highly endangers the Egyptian national security.” the statement read. Ahmed Darrag, a high ranking leader of El Baradei’s Constitution Party, denounced the decision and announced his resignation from the party.

Still others praised his decision. Khaled el-Masry, spokesman for the April 6 Youth Movement, says he “completely understands” the decision to resign from his post. In a statement, el-Masry said,
“El-Baradei has humanitarian biases as well as biases for justice and freedom that contradict bloodshed, especially if it happens while he is in a public post.”

 

International reaction

The military actions received international condemnation and warning. On Wednesday, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon condemned the violence used by Egyptian security forces to “in the strongest terms.” Through his spokesman, Eduardo del Buey, he said, “In the aftermath of today’s violence, the secretary-general urges all Egyptians to concentrate their efforts on promoting genuinely inclusive reconciliation. While recognizing that political clocks do not run backwards, the secretary-general also believes firmly that violence and incitement from any side are not the answers to the challenges Egypt faces.”

In a televised statement, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry called the Egyptian military’s actions “deplorable” and ”counter to Egyptian aspirations for peace, inclusion and genuine democracy.” Michael Mann, a spokesman for EU Foreign Policy Chief Catherine Ashton said, “Violence won’t lead to any solution and we urge the Egyptian authorities to proceed with utmost restraint.”

Turkey President Erdogan has urged the UN Security Council and Arab League to act quickly: “It is clear that the international community, by supporting the military coup and remaining silent over previous massacres, has encouraged the current administration to carry out today’s intervention, instead of protecting democracy and constitutional legitimacy in Egypt.” Leaders from Iran have also warned of the risk of civil war.

The Egyptian Ambassador to the US called it “the least bad option.”

 

 

 

Since the initial uprising, police had largely and deliberately disappeared from the streets. As a result, Egyptians have complained about lax law and order, and an increase in criminal activity. However, since Mursi’s removal, the police have been more visible in the streets, while also implementing a public relations campaign to improve their image, despite Mursi’s failure to develop any police reform during his term in office. Ibrahim’s claim to restore security to the Mubarak era, while well-intended, brought reminders and fear of a notoriously oppressive security force.

 

Conclusion

 

The Muslim Brotherhood will not ended its protests, however it is likely that only hard-line protesters will remain resistant and active following the clashes of the 14th. With the actions taken yesterday, the Egyptian government has essentially established a baseline for what it is willing to tolerate.

 

The scale of violence during the security operations is likely to have put an end to any hope negotiations between the army-backed government and the Muslim Brotherhood. In fact, allegations of violence on the part of the Brotherhood supporters could be used to reinstate a ban on the group, including its political arm, the Freedom and Justice Party. With less than 20% of Egyptians supporting the Muslim Brotherhood, it is most likely that outrage at this action would emanate from outside of Egypt, rather than inside, posing a threat from radicalised actors entering the nation and acting on behalf of the group.

 

In order for the existing government to remain effective, it is imperative not only to focus on the security situation, but the economy. Economic improvement, even with incremental change, will assure the Egyptian populace that conditions are trending upward. To many outside of Egypt, this struggle is abuot religious versus secular government. However at the root of the clashes is the dire need for economic stability at all levels of income. If the government is swift in enacting security, economic, and political reforms, internal confrontations are likely to decrease. Yet the threat will still remain in place from those who support the concept of an Islamist party-led nation.