MS Risk Blog

Security Advisory: World Cup

And we’re off again!  All of the 8 group winners are through to the quarterfinals for the first time ever.

The big story in Brazil yesterday was the collapse of an overpass under construction that tragically killed several people riding in the bus it fell on in Belo Horizonte, one of the host cities.  Although there were many concerns about the quality of construction of the stadia, there has been little to worry about thus far and with only 8 matches remaining, these concerns seem unnecessary; touch wood.

Today’s early game is France vs Germany in Rio (31C, 100% Humidity, clear) at the Maracana.  There are no concerns about this match. Typically, both countries have fans whom are reasonably well behaved. The later game is Brazil vs Colombia in Fortaleza (30C, 65%, clear).  Security services have been put on standby in order to respond in case of a Brazilian loss, not only in Fortaleza, but throughout the country as well.  The concern is the potential for wide scale rioting in the face of defeat as has been seen in a number of other cities including Vancouver after they lost the Stanley Cup finals.

Security Advisory: FIFA Workd Cup

Last night was another captivating day of football with both matches going into extra time. A crushing defeat for the Americans who’s goalkeeper, Tim Howard, set a new standard for the number of saves in a match. The match was briefly interrupted by a politically motivated pitch invader with a history of doing so. There was no real disruption and the match continued unhindered.

Some reports indicate protestors are congregating in the vicinity of FIFA’s Rio headquarters with riot police responding accordingly. Expect these protests to be short lived with a harsh response from security forces. If you find yourself in an area where crowds are gather, leave at the first sign of trouble.

The quarterfinal match-ups are now set as we go into the first of two rest days; the first quarterfinals are on Friday with France vs Germany in Rio and Brazil vs Colombia in Fortaleza.

Attacks Continue as Nigeria Announces Arrest of Suspect with Links to Chibok Abductions

At least eighteen people were killed Tuesday, and fifty-five others were injured, after an explosion at a market in Maiduguri in northeastern Nigeria.

According to on the ground sources, the attack occurred near Maiduguri’s busiest roundabout, which is located near the popular Monday Market, during morning rush hour. Nigeria’s defense headquarters has confirmed the attack, stating “a van loaded with charcoal and IED exploded at Monday Market in Maiduguri this morning. The location has been cordoned off.” Multiple eyewitnesses have reported that crowds at the scene attempted to attack firefighters deployed to the area, accusing them of arriving too slowly and hindering their efforts to put out the blaze. Although there was no immediate claim of responsibility, officials are blaming Boko Haram militants. Despite attacks in Maiduguri once being a daily occurrence, a military offensive launched last year, and backed by local vigilante groups, has had some success in flushing the insurgents out of the city and into the remote areas of Borno state, where Maiduguri is the capital. However those gains appear to have now been lost, as a series of attacks in the city this year have targeted civilians and the security services. In January, a bomb attack targeted one of the city’s crowded markets while in March, hundreds of militants stormed the military’s Giwa Barracks, setting free a number of militants who were in prison.

Meanwhile on Monday, Nigeria’s military announced that it has broken up a Boko Haram intelligence cell, arresting its leader who is alleged to have taken part in the April 2014 abduction of over 200 schoolgirls. A statement issued by the defense headquarters indicated that troops have found a militants’ “intelligence cell” headed by a businessman “who participated actively in the abduction of schoolgirls in Chibok,” in northeastern Borno state on April 14. The statement further added that the businessman has been identified as Babuji Ya’ari, who also is a member of a civilian youth group, known as the Civilian Joint Task Force (JTF), which has worked along with the military to fight Boko Haram. The suspect is alleged to have used his position within the youth group as a cover to work for the militants. Officials from the Nigerian military also indicated Monday “the arrest of the businessman who is known to deal in tricycles has also yielded some vital information and facilitated the arrest of other members of the terrorists’ intelligence cell who are women.” The military has accused the suspect of spying for the Islamist militant group as well as spearheading the murder of Emir of Gwoza in Borno state one month ago, adding that since 2011, the suspect has been coordinating several deadly attacks in Maiduguri, including the attacks on customs and military locations in the town. It remains unclear whether this arrest will help in the rescue of the 219 schoolgirls who are still missing.

Security Advisory: Fifa World Cup

It was an unfortunate result for the would-be African giant killers yesterday.  The scores belie outstanding performances, especially on behalf of the Algerians who pushed the near-favourite Germans to extra time.

There was a small silent protest at Copacabana in Rio yesterday of about 100 people.  It was a non-violent demonstration against the World Cup and the misuse of state funds. As opposed to previous protests, this was well controlled and the desire to attack security forces not present.

Today’s matches are in Sao Paulo (23C, 58%Humidity, clear) and Salvador (27C, 74%H, slight chance of rain). The early game is in Sao Paulo between Argentina and Switzerland.  Sao Paulo hasn’t seen much trouble throughout the tournament with statutory holidays imposed throughout the city on match days to ease congestion.  That said, Argentinian fans have been a concern at other matches and have been branded as hooligans at previous international matches. The late game between the USA and Belgium in Salvador will undoubtedly see a large American presence (they bought three times the number of tickets of the next foreign fans).  Although large groups of Americans are the preferred target for anti-western terror groups, these aren’t typically South American and there has been no reporting to indicate such a threat.  There was one reported attack where English fans were set upon by a group of belligerent Brazilians.  All the assailants were subsequently arrested but that doesn’t discount the potential for another occurrence elsewhere.

ISIS Declares Caliphate across Iraq and Syria

On 30 June, the militant group Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS, a.k.a ISIL) declared a caliphate which spans from Aleppo in northwestern Syria to Diyala province in eastern Iraq. The group has also modified its name to “Islamic State” and has declared their leader, Abu Bakar al Baghdadi as its caliph. Baghdadi is now referred to as “khalīfah Ibrahim.”

Islamic State released a ten page announcement in Arabic, English, German, French, and Russian which defends the formation of a caliphate. The announcement declares that “the Islamic State has no [legal] constraint or excuse that can justify delaying or neglecting the establishment of the khilāfah (caliphate) such that it would not be sinful.” The statement explains that Baghdadi was chosen as caliph because he claims that he is a descendant of the prophet Muhammed (pbuh). Islamic State adds, “Thus, he is the imam and khalīfah for the Muslims everywhere” and have called on Muslims around the globe to pledge allegiance to him. Muslims around the world have expressed outrage as the declaration occurs during the beginning of the holy month of Ramadan.

ISIS also released two videos upon the announcement. Of note, the second video, “The End of Sykes-Picot,” shows a Chilean member of the Islamic State discussing the destruction of the border between Iraq and Syria. He speaks in English, and raises the flag of the Islamic State over the outpost.

SUSTAINABILITY:
Islamic State gained traction in June by taking control of large regions in northern Iraq and creating corridors into ISIS controlled parts of Syria. They were spurred on by the support of Sunni tribes in Iraq who were angry at their marginalization by the government, led by highly sectarian Shi’a leader, Nouri al Maliki. ISIS captured equipment and money in their blitzkrieg across the region, and even if the Iraqi government recaptures territory, it will be difficult to dislodge the spoils ISIS has gained, including its new fundraising networks and reputation, which now surpasses Al Qaeda in infamy. In fact, some analysts believe that AQ will experience a growing number of defections as militants move their allegiance to ISIS. Al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula (AQAP), for example, has made supportive and congratulatory statements on social media. ISIS has also recently released a new map showing a five-year-plan to grow their caliphate. The map shows plans to expand across north and central Africa to the west, and beyond India and Indonesia in the East.

Despite the group’s arrogance and ambition, analysts do not believe that the Islamic state is likely to remain in place. The erstwhile coalitions that ISIS had with Sunni Muslims in Iraq has eroded as the militants have killed members of the tribes or made tribal leaders into subordinates rather than partners. The Islamic State is also battling Iraqi soldiers who are intent on regaining captured territory, with heavy fighting occurring in Tikrit over the weekend. Russia has deployed military jets and experts to Iraq, and on Sunday evening, US President Barack Obama ordered additional deployments to Iraq, bringing the number of US troops in the region to 750, as well as sending “a detachment of helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles, which will bolster airfield and travel route security,” according to a statement. Iran has also agreed to send weaponry but will not send troops.

FAILED POLITICAL EFFORTS:

In an urgent effort to deal with the political marginalization that was the catalyst for the rapid growth of ISIS, Iraq’s new parliament convened on Tuesday morning, intent on creating a unity government to keep the country from splitting apart. However the first session ended early after 90 Sunni and Kurdish MPs walked out in protest during a 30-minute morning break. The speaker of the parliament declared, “We are going to postpone because of an urgent matter,” but he did reveal what the urgent matter was.

Iraqi president al-Maliki and his Shi’a-dominated government have been under pressure to be more inclusive of Iraq’s Sunni minority. US diplomats have stated that the US is unlikely to take military action against the Islamic State until a new unity government is created.

Meanwhile, fighting continues at an alarming rate. Violence in Iraq resulted in 2,417 deaths in June, according to the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq. In May, the number reached 799. Islamic State also appears to be targeting Shi’a shrines. On Monday, the group fired mortars at the Askari Shrine in Samarra as worshipers gathered to celebrate the first day of Ramadan. Six people were killed and minor damage was caused to the dome. Iraqi forces have been reinforced in the region to protect the site. The attack is likely to cause waves of retaliation, creating the sectarian war that ISIS had openly sought to create.