MS Risk Blog

ISIS in Iraq Update: 20 August 2014

On 19 August, Islamic State of Iraq and Syria published a video called “Message to America,” which showed the gruesome and tragic beheading of U.S. journalist James Foley. The group has threatened the beheading of a second American journalist, Steven Sotloff, who is also being held in Syria if the Obama administration does not stop airstrikes against ISIS strongholds. The speaker in the video of Foley’s execution appeared to have a British accent.

A day before the video of Foley’s execution was released; ISIS released another video directed toward America. The video, “A message from ISIS to US”, states “We will drown all of you in blood.” It goes on to warn that ISIS “will attack Americans anywhere if U.S. airstrikes hit Islamic State militants.” The video shows footage of US military vehicles being targeted by IEDs, and images believed to depict the mass execution of Iraqi troops. Shortly after the US announced airstrikes on ISIS targets in early August, ISIS took to social media to call on sleeper cells to attack US interests around the world.

The US initiated limited airstrikes against ISIS targets two weeks ago, following the capture of Mosul Dam and the mass evacuation of Yazidi Iraqis in Northern Iraq. ISIS has reportedly kidnapped and killed hundreds of Yazidis, and has threatened to kill thousands more. The evacuation of hundreds of thousands of Yazidis into Mount Sinjar escalates Iraq’s appalling humanitarian crises at the hands of ISIS. Nearly 1.2 million Iraqis have been displaced in 2014. Obama has called ISIS “a threat to all Iraqis and the entire region.”

The video depicting Foley’s execution was released a day after Kurdish troops, with the aid of US air strikes, wrested control of Mosul Dam, which had been captured by ISIS in early August. Mosul Dam holds back approximately 11 billion cubic metres of water. In ISIS hands, the dam could be used as a weapon of mass destruction, with the ability to flood Mosul and nearby cities, reaching as far as Baghdad. The structure is intact, now protected by Kurdish forces. Small skirmishes still continue in the area.

ISIS fighters have fallen back on Tikrit, which has been under the militant group’s control for over two months despite multiple attempts by Iraqi forces to retake the city. The repeated failed offensives against ISIS in Tikrit reveal the poor condition of the Iraqi military. ISIS has a firm stronghold on the city; meanwhile, at estimates show that at least seven of Iraq’s 16 army divisions have been rendered ineffective since the start of 2014.

The videos released by ISIS have not slowed US intentions to continue airstrikes in ISIS controlled areas. President Obama has not issued a timeframe for the campaign against ISIS; the US air forces have bombed at least 90 targets, including ISIS vehicle convoys, mobile artillery and fixed positions. The bulk of airstrikes have occurred over the past few days near Mosul dam. Other strikes have been near the Kurdish capital, Ebril, where ISIS forces were attempting to advance; and Mount Sinjar, where the Yazidi population evacuated after ISIS displaced them from their homes.

Meanwhile, the UN High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) has launched a massive aid operation to reach over half a million people displaced by the fighting in northern Iraq. Aid will be sent to Iraqis through Jordan via air, Turkey via road, and Dubai and Iran via sea. The US, UK and other nations have air dropped food and water in the past weeks; the UNHCR airlift of supplies via Jordan will begin today.

Liberian Officials Confirm Missing Patients

Despite earlier denials, Liberia’s government confirmed Monday that seventeen suspected Ebola patients have gone missing after a health centre in the capital city was attacked and looted over the weekend.

Police officials disclosed late Saturday that a quarantine centre for suspected Ebola patients in the Liberian capital Monrovia has been attacked and looted by protesters.

While the government had initially sought to reassure people by stating that all the patients had been transferred to an Ebola treatment centre in the John F. Kennedy Memorial Medical Centre in Monrovia, on Monday, Information Minister Lewis Brown confirmed that 17 of the thirty-seven patients are unaccounted for and that they likely have gone “back into their communities”. The Minister further disclosed that authorities are now trying to track them down, adding that he remains confident that they will return.

The incident occurred Saturday evening in the densely populated West Point town ship, with hospital officials stating at least twenty patients, who were being monitored for signs of the deadly virus, had left the centre. A senior police officer also confirmed that blood-stained mattresses, bedding and medical equipment were taken from the centre.

While the assistant to the health minister disclosed that the incident occurred because protesters were unhappy that patients were being brought in from other parts of the capital city, other reports have suggested that protesters believed that the Ebola virus was a hoax and that they wanted to force the quarantine centre to close. The centre was set up in order to observe suspected Ebola patients and to then transfer them to a main centre if their tests proved to be positive. It currently remains unknown if the centre had patients infected with the virus however one report suggested that there were patients that had tested positive for the virus.

Meanwhile on Monday the World Health Organization (WHO) called for exit screenings on all travellers from the affected countries. A statement released by the WHO indicated that officials now want health checks to be carried out at all airports, sea ports and major land crossings of the four countries affected by the current Ebola outbreak. New data released by the WHO on Friday indicated that the death toll has now risen to 1,145, with 2,127 cases reported in total. The outbreak is currently affecting Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria and Sierra Leone.

Somali Government Launches New Disarmament Campaign

A new disarmament campaign, launched by the Somali government earlier this week, has already netted some 500 guns and has caused heaving fighting to break out in the capital city. On Friday, heavy fighting broke out in Mogadishu as Somali government troops and African Union (AU) forces launched a pre-dawn raid on a house belonging to a former warlord. According to police officer Capt. Mohammed Hussein, seven people were killed in the violence, including four civilians, two militia members and one soldier. Eight people were also wounded.

During the early morning hours on Friday, government troops, backed by the AU mission in Somalia (AMISOM) attempted to seize weapons from militia leader Ahmed Dai before the fighting erupted. A statement released by AMISOM indicated that the mission’s troops took part in a pre-dawn raid on Mr. Dai’s home in a “search operation…following a tip-off that there was an arms cache,” adding that the “militia was overpowered and 20 were arrested.” Mr. Dai, who was not arrested, confirmed that AMISOM forces had carried out a raid on his house noting however that if AMISOM is “…claiming the operation is aimed for disarmament, then I have got not weapons, except a few for self-defense purposes.” Mr. Dai’s home is based in the capital’s Madina district, a neighborhood located close to the heavily defended airport zone, which is also the headquarters of the 22,000-strong AU force.

Government security official Mohamed Yusuf confirmed the fighting, disclosing that militiamen confronted government forces and African troops as they were carrying out security operations in the capital city this morning. Eyewitnesses reported bursts of gunfire and heavy explosions before dawn, with some reports indicating that both sides fired rocket-propelled grenades. The fighting calmed by mid-morning.

Earlier this week, the Somali government launched a disarmament campaign aimed at attempting to reduce the number of weapons and bringing greater security to the capital city, which has seen a number of deadly attacks in recent months. After more than two decades of conflict, Somalia has become awash with guns, resulting in several politicians and local leaders commanding what are effectively private armies. While such forces are not connected to al-Shabaab, who is fighting to topple the internationally backed government, they nevertheless pose a significant threat to Somalia’s fragile security situation. Furthermore, while government officials fear that these weapons may fall into the hands of al-Qaeda-linked fighters, some Somalis believe that the latest campaign is aimed at disarming rivals of the country’s leadership as the country prepares itself for the proposed 2016 national elections.

Government officials disclosed Friday that during the first four days of security operations, some 500 guns were recovered.

Nigeria Fears Ebola Spread Outside of Lagos

Health officials in Nigeria disclosed Wednesday that a nurse, who contracted Ebola at a Lagos hospital, travelled to the eastern part of the country before falling ill, raising fears that the deadly outbreak may now spread outside of the southern city.

Health Minister Onyebuchi Chukwu has confirmed that the nurse had tested positive for Ebola, adding that the she had “disobeyed medical instructions,” that were given to hospital staff, by travelling to Enugu, which is a major city located in the eastern region of Nigeria. Sources have disclosed that the nurse was infected with the tropical disease while caring for Patrick Sawyer, the Liberian government employee who brought Ebola to Lagos on July 20. He died five days later while under quarantine at the First Consultants hospital in Lagos. After contracting the virus in Lagos, the nurse travelled with her husband to Enugu, where she fell six and was admitted to hospital. Medical staff in Enugu later transported her back to the special isolation unit in Lagos, where she is currently being treated.

While so far there have been no confirmations that she infected anyone in the eastern city, Information Minister Labaran Maku has disclosed that “21 persons in Enugu are being watched,” including the nurse’s husband, who has not displayed any symptoms. Nigeria has recorded 10 Ebola cases, including three deaths. While all the cases are currently in Lagos, a spread of the deadly virus across the country will place immense strain on the already weak healthcare system.

Kenya Classified as High-Risk for Spread of Ebola

Officials at the World Health Organization (WHO) have classified Kenya as a “high-risk” country for the spread of the deadly Ebola virus. To date, this is the most serious warning issued by the WHO that the deadly Ebola virus could spread to East Africa.

A statement released by the WHO’s country director for Kenya, Custodia Mandihate, indicated that the East African country was “classified in group two; at a high risk of transmission,” adding that Kenya was vulnerable as it was a major transport hub, with many flights coming from West Africa. In recent weeks, a number of measures have been set up in Kenya in a bid to prevent the deadly virus from spreading to the country. These include health checks at the main airport in the capital Nairobi. Despite receiving more than seventy flights per week from West Africa, the Kenyan government however has disclosed that they will not ban flights from the four countries that have been affected by the latest outbreak.

In the latest data released by the WHO on Wednesday, the number of people killed by Ebola in West Africa has risen to 1,069 with 1,975 suspected cases reported. Over a period of two days, there were fifty-six new deaths and 128 new cases reported in Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone.

Spread of Ebola Continues as WHO Agrees to the Use of Untested Drugs

On Tuesday, a World Health Organisation (WHO) panel of medical experts ruled that it is ethical to offer untested drugs or vaccines to those people either infected or at risk due to the current Ebola outbreak. The panel however has cautioned West African officials that supplies will be limited.

WHO Approves Untested Drugs

A statement released by the WHO indicated that the panel has disclosed that any provision of experimental Ebola medicines would require “informed consent, freedom of choice, confidentiality, respect for the person, preservation of dignity and involvement of the community,” adding that the drugs should be properly tested in the best possible clinical trials. The ethics panel met last week in order to discuss whether various experimental drugs and vaccines being developed to fight Ebola may be used in the current outbreak despite not having been fully tested or licensed. The meeting was called after the experimental Ebola drug ZMapp, which is produced by US biotech company Mapp Biopharmaceuticals, was given to two American health workers who were infected with Ebola while working in Liberia.

On Wednesday, Canadian officials disclosed that between 800 and 1,000 doses of an experimental Ebola vaccine, which has so far only been tested on animals, will be donated to the WHO for use in West Africa. Canada however will keep a small portion of the vaccine for further research and in the event that an Ebola case appears in the country.

However while Canada has announced that it will send doses of the experimental vaccine to the WHO, experts are warning that it will likely take between four and six months in order to make a large enough quantity to have any real impact at preventing the illness. Officials at the WHO have disclosed that so-called “first in man” trials, which are the first tests of the drug to be carried out on humans, will likely be conducted over the next two to four months. However even if the trials of the drug prove to be successful, supplies of it will remain limited, noting “it is…likely that the number of doses available for further study and/or deployment from end 2014 onwards will remain insufficient to meet demand.”

New WHO Figures Released

New data released by the WHO on Monday indicated that the death toll in the Ebola outbreak in West Africa has now passed 1,000, and that the outbreak does not appears to be slowing down. In a press release Monday, the United Nations health agency confirmed that 1,013 people have died in the outbreak with authorities recording 1,848 suspected, probable or confirmed cases of the disease. The updated WHO figures are from August 7 – 9, when 52 people died and 69 more were infected. During this period, Guinea reported six additional deaths and 11 new infections; Liberia had 29 more deaths and 45 cases while Sierra Leone saw 17 new fatalities and 13 new cases.

In total, Guinea has reported 506 cases, with 373 deaths; Liberia has 599 cases, with 323 deaths; Sierra Leone has reported 730 cases and 315 deaths while Nigeria has thirteen cases and two deaths.