MS Risk Blog

PKK and the battle against ISIS

The battle against ISIS has created strange bedfellows.  Most recently, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has joined the fight against the militants. The PKK is formally classified as terrorists due decades of fighting against Turkey for an independent Kurdistan. The conflict killed over 40,000 people between 1984 and 2013. Today, the PKK is working on the same side as Turkey to stop the advance of ISIS, while simultaneously lobbying the international community to remove their terrorist designation.  The group has claimed their determination to work with other governments and groups to see the elimination of ISIS.  One PKK fighter said, “This war will continue until we finish off [ISIS).”  Another stated, “ISIS is a danger to everyone, so we must fight them everywhere.” The PKK’s role in battling ISIS presents a mixed bag for Turkey and the international community. While the group is still considered a terrorist threat, and the PKK has accused Turkey of funding fighters against the Kurds in Syria; an allegation that the Turkish government denies. Yet, they are the ‘lesser’ threat in the face of ISIS. PKKs efforts have been successful in fending ISIS off from Erbil, and have sent forces to Kirkuk and Jalawla. Their armed sister group, the People’s Defence Units (YPG) have successfully protected their autonomous region in Syria, and assisted in evacuating thousands of Yazidis from Mount Sinjar, where they had fled from ISIS. The evacuees had been trapped out the mountain with minimal food or water, relying on airdrops for supplies. However, PKK members are not fighting for Turkey, Syria, Iran or Iraq; they are fighting for Kurdistan, a state which is seeking autonomy for lands that cross each of these nations. Further, the PKK represents a threat to the existing Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) which is a long time competitor of the PKK. For now, however, Kurdish Peshmerga, under the KDP umbrella, are working with the PKK and national forces against ISIS, which is heavily armed with weapons from abandoned stockpiles in their captured zones. However KDP leaders fear that PKK involvement in engagement against ISIS will hinder opportunities to gain national autonomy in the long run. In the short run, PKK involvement could prevent nations from sending much needed weaponry to the Peshmerga. Turkish officials have resisted addressing the significance of a resurgent PKK, or the possibility that their involvement will reignite tensions in Turkey, or between Turkey and Kurdistan. One official said, “There is no fear of a division in Turkey or a fear of unification of the Kurdish population outside of Turkey. Since there are no demands through armed conflict or violence from the PKK in Turkey, there is no need to panic.” Currently the PKK is opting for slowly decreasing national powers in the Kurdish region, eventually gaining their autonomy. Further their actions in the fight against ISIS are perceived to be a push toward persuading the international community to remove their terrorist designation. The EU, for its part, will not act without Turkish approval, which is unlikely to be forthcoming. Meanwhile in Syria, ISIS has clashed with Assad’s forces in Aleppo, and Raqqah. ISIS considers Raqqah the ‘capital’ of their state; weapons confiscated in Iraq have been steadily making their way into the city. Raqaa approximately 25 miles from a Syrian-controlled airbase at al Tabaqa, the last remaining government forces in the ISIS controlled zone. Assad’s military has carried out at least a dozen airstrikes, reportedly killing tens of ISIS fighters, and has also sent reinforcements to al Tabaqa. Analysts have differed as to the size of territory ISIS holds. Some believe ISIS has control of approximately 11,000 square miles of territory, roughly the size of Belgium. Others believe ISIS has influence in as much as 35,000 square miles of territory, roughly the size of Jordan. It is believed that 6,300 fighters joined ISIS in July. Among that number, an estimated 5,000 are Syrian, and the remaining are Arab, European, Caucasian, East Asian and Kurdish. It is believed that as many as 1,100 of the 1,300 foreign fighters entered Syria via Turkey. Among ISIS’ most recent recruits, many joined from other radicalised groups such as the al-Qaeda backed Al Nusrah Front, and the Islamic Front. Al Nusrah, the Islamic Front, and Ansar al Din are fighting a battle on two fronts: they are opposed to ISIS and opposed to Bashar al Assad, and clash with both.

Calm Restored to Liberian Neighbourhood after Clashes Erupt

On Thursday, calm returned to a neighbourhood in Liberia’s capital city after clashes erupted between residents and security forces on Wednesday. Fighting broke out just hours after Liberia’s President announced that the neighbourhood would be sealed off in what is the government’s latest attempt at halting the spread of Ebola.

Four residents in a quarantined Ebola-hit neighbourhood in the Liberian capital were injured Wednesday after clashes erupted between residents and police. On the ground sources have reported that the violence erupted after security forces entered the area in a bid to evacuate a government official and his family from the West Point neighbourhood of Monrovia. Soldiers opened fire and used tear gas on protesting crowds as they evacuated the state official.

Clashes erupted hours after Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf announced that troops and police were sealing off the impoverished neighbourhood, with no one allowed to leave or enter the area. Many residents of West Point, which is located on a peninsula in the seaside capital, now fear that they will be cut off from food as many market traders are no longer to enter the neighbourhood. On the ground sources reported late Wednesday that food prices began to rise just hours after the announcement was made. While the government has promised to ensure food deliveries, so far no such deliveries have been made. The area however remained quiet Wednesday evening despite a night-time curfew imposed. Dolo Town, which is located to the east of the capital city, has also been quarantined while a night-time curfew has been imposed.

New figures released by the World Health Organization (WHO) on Wednesday have indicated that the death toll from the Ebola outbreak in West Africa is now at least 1,350 people. The latest figures also indicate that the deaths are mounting the fastest in Liberia, which now accounts for at least 576 of the deaths. A statement released by the UN health agency also warned, “countries are beginning to experience supply shortages, including fuel, food and basic supplies.” Supply shipments have been affected as a number of airlines and shipping services have halted transport to the worst affected capitals of Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone.

On Thursday, South Africa became the latest country to issue a ban on non-citizens travelling from the three West African countries that have been affected by the worst Ebola outbreak. A statement released by the health ministry declared “a total travel ban for all non-citizens travelling from these high risk countries,” which refers to Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. The statement added that all South Africans returning home from these areas will undergo strict screening. Government officials have also barred non-essential travel to the three countries. Despite having two scares in recent weeks, after a South African man returning from Liberia and a Guinean woman displayed Ebola-like symptoms, South Africa has so far been Ebola-free as both patients tested negative the deadly virus. Precautions are now being taken as Johannesburg is a major hub for air travel between southern Africa and the rest of the continent.

ISIS in Iraq Update: 20 August 2014

On 19 August, Islamic State of Iraq and Syria published a video called “Message to America,” which showed the gruesome and tragic beheading of U.S. journalist James Foley. The group has threatened the beheading of a second American journalist, Steven Sotloff, who is also being held in Syria if the Obama administration does not stop airstrikes against ISIS strongholds. The speaker in the video of Foley’s execution appeared to have a British accent.

A day before the video of Foley’s execution was released; ISIS released another video directed toward America. The video, “A message from ISIS to US”, states “We will drown all of you in blood.” It goes on to warn that ISIS “will attack Americans anywhere if U.S. airstrikes hit Islamic State militants.” The video shows footage of US military vehicles being targeted by IEDs, and images believed to depict the mass execution of Iraqi troops. Shortly after the US announced airstrikes on ISIS targets in early August, ISIS took to social media to call on sleeper cells to attack US interests around the world.

The US initiated limited airstrikes against ISIS targets two weeks ago, following the capture of Mosul Dam and the mass evacuation of Yazidi Iraqis in Northern Iraq. ISIS has reportedly kidnapped and killed hundreds of Yazidis, and has threatened to kill thousands more. The evacuation of hundreds of thousands of Yazidis into Mount Sinjar escalates Iraq’s appalling humanitarian crises at the hands of ISIS. Nearly 1.2 million Iraqis have been displaced in 2014. Obama has called ISIS “a threat to all Iraqis and the entire region.”

The video depicting Foley’s execution was released a day after Kurdish troops, with the aid of US air strikes, wrested control of Mosul Dam, which had been captured by ISIS in early August. Mosul Dam holds back approximately 11 billion cubic metres of water. In ISIS hands, the dam could be used as a weapon of mass destruction, with the ability to flood Mosul and nearby cities, reaching as far as Baghdad. The structure is intact, now protected by Kurdish forces. Small skirmishes still continue in the area.

ISIS fighters have fallen back on Tikrit, which has been under the militant group’s control for over two months despite multiple attempts by Iraqi forces to retake the city. The repeated failed offensives against ISIS in Tikrit reveal the poor condition of the Iraqi military. ISIS has a firm stronghold on the city; meanwhile, at estimates show that at least seven of Iraq’s 16 army divisions have been rendered ineffective since the start of 2014.

The videos released by ISIS have not slowed US intentions to continue airstrikes in ISIS controlled areas. President Obama has not issued a timeframe for the campaign against ISIS; the US air forces have bombed at least 90 targets, including ISIS vehicle convoys, mobile artillery and fixed positions. The bulk of airstrikes have occurred over the past few days near Mosul dam. Other strikes have been near the Kurdish capital, Ebril, where ISIS forces were attempting to advance; and Mount Sinjar, where the Yazidi population evacuated after ISIS displaced them from their homes.

Meanwhile, the UN High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) has launched a massive aid operation to reach over half a million people displaced by the fighting in northern Iraq. Aid will be sent to Iraqis through Jordan via air, Turkey via road, and Dubai and Iran via sea. The US, UK and other nations have air dropped food and water in the past weeks; the UNHCR airlift of supplies via Jordan will begin today.

Liberian Officials Confirm Missing Patients

Despite earlier denials, Liberia’s government confirmed Monday that seventeen suspected Ebola patients have gone missing after a health centre in the capital city was attacked and looted over the weekend.

Police officials disclosed late Saturday that a quarantine centre for suspected Ebola patients in the Liberian capital Monrovia has been attacked and looted by protesters.

While the government had initially sought to reassure people by stating that all the patients had been transferred to an Ebola treatment centre in the John F. Kennedy Memorial Medical Centre in Monrovia, on Monday, Information Minister Lewis Brown confirmed that 17 of the thirty-seven patients are unaccounted for and that they likely have gone “back into their communities”. The Minister further disclosed that authorities are now trying to track them down, adding that he remains confident that they will return.

The incident occurred Saturday evening in the densely populated West Point town ship, with hospital officials stating at least twenty patients, who were being monitored for signs of the deadly virus, had left the centre. A senior police officer also confirmed that blood-stained mattresses, bedding and medical equipment were taken from the centre.

While the assistant to the health minister disclosed that the incident occurred because protesters were unhappy that patients were being brought in from other parts of the capital city, other reports have suggested that protesters believed that the Ebola virus was a hoax and that they wanted to force the quarantine centre to close. The centre was set up in order to observe suspected Ebola patients and to then transfer them to a main centre if their tests proved to be positive. It currently remains unknown if the centre had patients infected with the virus however one report suggested that there were patients that had tested positive for the virus.

Meanwhile on Monday the World Health Organization (WHO) called for exit screenings on all travellers from the affected countries. A statement released by the WHO indicated that officials now want health checks to be carried out at all airports, sea ports and major land crossings of the four countries affected by the current Ebola outbreak. New data released by the WHO on Friday indicated that the death toll has now risen to 1,145, with 2,127 cases reported in total. The outbreak is currently affecting Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria and Sierra Leone.

Somali Government Launches New Disarmament Campaign

A new disarmament campaign, launched by the Somali government earlier this week, has already netted some 500 guns and has caused heaving fighting to break out in the capital city. On Friday, heavy fighting broke out in Mogadishu as Somali government troops and African Union (AU) forces launched a pre-dawn raid on a house belonging to a former warlord. According to police officer Capt. Mohammed Hussein, seven people were killed in the violence, including four civilians, two militia members and one soldier. Eight people were also wounded.

During the early morning hours on Friday, government troops, backed by the AU mission in Somalia (AMISOM) attempted to seize weapons from militia leader Ahmed Dai before the fighting erupted. A statement released by AMISOM indicated that the mission’s troops took part in a pre-dawn raid on Mr. Dai’s home in a “search operation…following a tip-off that there was an arms cache,” adding that the “militia was overpowered and 20 were arrested.” Mr. Dai, who was not arrested, confirmed that AMISOM forces had carried out a raid on his house noting however that if AMISOM is “…claiming the operation is aimed for disarmament, then I have got not weapons, except a few for self-defense purposes.” Mr. Dai’s home is based in the capital’s Madina district, a neighborhood located close to the heavily defended airport zone, which is also the headquarters of the 22,000-strong AU force.

Government security official Mohamed Yusuf confirmed the fighting, disclosing that militiamen confronted government forces and African troops as they were carrying out security operations in the capital city this morning. Eyewitnesses reported bursts of gunfire and heavy explosions before dawn, with some reports indicating that both sides fired rocket-propelled grenades. The fighting calmed by mid-morning.

Earlier this week, the Somali government launched a disarmament campaign aimed at attempting to reduce the number of weapons and bringing greater security to the capital city, which has seen a number of deadly attacks in recent months. After more than two decades of conflict, Somalia has become awash with guns, resulting in several politicians and local leaders commanding what are effectively private armies. While such forces are not connected to al-Shabaab, who is fighting to topple the internationally backed government, they nevertheless pose a significant threat to Somalia’s fragile security situation. Furthermore, while government officials fear that these weapons may fall into the hands of al-Qaeda-linked fighters, some Somalis believe that the latest campaign is aimed at disarming rivals of the country’s leadership as the country prepares itself for the proposed 2016 national elections.

Government officials disclosed Friday that during the first four days of security operations, some 500 guns were recovered.