MS Risk Blog

ISIS Update

Posted on in Iraq title_rule

Iraqi Parliament Resumes

Iraqi parliament has resumed today in Baghdad to vote for a new president. The vote occurs in the midst of more violent actions taken by militant group ISIS. Over the past month, ISIS has gained control of large swaths of Iraq, causing the international community to call upon the Iraqi government to find a solution. However, the divisions between Sunni and Shiite Muslims, as well as Kurdish Iraqis, have left parliamentarians struggling to agree on a new president and prime minister.

In the April 2014 parliamentary elections, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki’s Shiite dominated party won a majority of the seats. Maliki’s measures have been deplored as divisive, creating a sectarian rift that has given rise to violence and thousands of deaths since the start of the year. Despite calls for his removal from office, Maliki has stated that he has no intentions of stepping down. Meanwhile, Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, 80, returned to Iraq last week after spending 18 months abroad for medical treatment of a stroke. With the president’s term set to expire, at least 95 candidates have sought the role of his successor. The most prominent among them are former deputy prime minister Barham Saleh, and the Kirkuk provincial governor, Najimaldin Karim.

Parliament resumes after an overnight suicide bombing in central Kazimiyah district of Baghdad killed 31 people and wounded 58 others. Reports indicate that a car packed with explosives drove into a checkpoint near a Shiite shrine as worshippers, observing the last days of Ramadan, awaited their security checks. The bombing was claimed by the militant group ISIS, via an online statement claiming responsibility for the attack “in response to the hostility of the (Shiite-led) government” and “criminal militias, who spare no effort in fighting Islam and Muslims.”

ISIS Targets Christians, Muslims

Last month, militant group Islamic State of Iraq and Syria conducted a large ground offensive in which they took control of vast swaths of territory in northern Iraq with the aim of creating an Islamic “caliphate”. The group changed their name to “Islamic State” and declared their leader, Abu Akbar al-Baghdadi, as their caliph. ISIS vowed to expand their caliphate’s territory into Baghdad. In recent weeks, it appears they are concentrating their efforts on retaining control of previously captured areas, however it is believe there are elements of ISIS within Baghdad that can cause disruption in the city’s security. While the group has stalled on their ground offensive, they have still conducted a series of atrocities against both Christians and Muslims.

ISIS has targeted Christians in Northern Iraqi cities, particularly in Mosul. Since capturing areas in the north, the group has imposed anti-Christian rule, including ordering Muslim employers to fire Christian workers. On 18 July, ISIS gave Christians in Mosul a 48 hour deadline to comply with their directive: Christians must either convert to Islam, pay tax, leave or be killed. Christians in Mosul, who once numbered over 50,000, fled to a nearby town. The homes of Christian leaders were ransacked and occupied. The bulk of the Christian population fled to nearby Qaraqosh, leaving Mosul empty of Christians for the first time in nearly 1600 years. Qaraqosh, a city approximately 20 miles south of Mosul, is protected by the Peshmerga, well-armed Kurdish fighters from the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan who seek to absorb Qaraqosh and surrounding villages.

Rather than fighting with the Peshmerga, ISIS has responded by blocking pipes that connect the town to the Tigris River, effectively cutting off the city’s water supply. The town has become reliant on rationed water being shipped in from Kurdish controlled areas, and residents pay US $10 every two days to refill their water tanks. NGOs have also erected water depots, but they are insufficient to supply the growing number of evacuees coping with the summer heat. In addition, Qaraqosh suffers hours-long electrical blackouts, and ISIS has placed an embargo against the city, preventing nearby towns from conducting trade with merchants in Qaraqosh. The situation has forced residents to drive to different cities in search of income.

In addition to the forced evacuation of Christians, ISIS has begun destroying Christian and Abrahamic sites. On 9 July, a video attributed to ISIS was posted on YouTube showing an ancient tomb being destroyed by a sledge hammer. Iraqi government officials say it is “almost certainly” the tomb of Biblical prophet Jonah, who is also a prophet in the Islamic faith.

On 20 July, ISIS burned an 1800 year old church to the ground. One day later, monks residing at the Mar Behnam monastery were evacuated by ISIS fighters. The monastery, run by the Syriac Catholic Church, is an important Christian pilgrimage site dating back to the 4th century. The monks asked to save some of the monastery’s relics but were refused. The evacuated monks were picked up by Peshmerga fighters several miles from the monastery.

Christians are not alone in facing discrimination by ISIS. Shi’a Muslims, as well as Yazidis (a sect linked to Zoroastrianism) are killed immediately upon identification. ISIS has also sought to destroy Shi’a holy sites throughout the region. Those who are not discriminated against are subjected to an extremely militant, loosely adapted version of Sharia law. On 19 June, ISIS tweeted images from a trial in which a Muslim woman was accused of adultery and then stoned to death. The photos did not show the woman, however they did show a large gathering in attendance to watch the event.

US Ambassador calls for Air Strikes

On Monday, the Iraqi ambassador to the US called the United States to launch air strikes on territories held by ISIS. At an Atlantic Council event, H.E. Lukman Faily said that in order “to conduct counterterrorism operations in urban areas occupied by ISIL, we need precision US air attacks,” and that “the US should offer air support targeting terrorist camps and supply convoys in remote areas.”

Lukman Faily added that the strikes would protect Iraq from a further terrorist influx, particularly through the Iraq/Syria corridor which has been created by ISIS.

Iraq is awaiting a shipment of US 24 Apache helicopters and 36 F-16 fighter planes that have been delayed through bureaucratic controls associated with foreign military sales. The F-16 shipment is expected to arrive in the autumn, after which time Iraqi pilots will need to be trained to operate the machinery. There is no scheduled date for the Apache helicopters.

Speaking on the delays, Faily said they had an “adverse impact” on Iraq, adding that Washington’s slow pace “also has created questions for us back home” about Washington’s commitment to Iraq.

Meanwhile, Russia has recently shipped Su-25 fighter jets. Lukman Faily also states that Iran has offered assistance which the Iraqi government has reportedly declined. However, unverified reports suggest that members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard are working with Iraqi militiamen to fight ISIL.

Talks Suspended in Brazzaville as Seleka Rebels Fail to Show Up

Posted on in Central Africa Republic title_rule

Just one day after peace talks were launched between the Central African Republic’s sectarian rivals, on Tuesday the talks were suspended after the ex-rebel Seleka group failed to show up for the second day of the forum. The suspension came one day before the deadline to reach a deal that the international community was hoping would bring an end to the on going violence.

Sources indicated Tuesday that delegates from the mainly Muslim Seleka had been provided a copy of the draft accord for the talks, which had been due to end on Wednesday, however they were apparently still studying the text. According to a member of the Congolese organizing committee, the two main negotiation sessions of the talks, one focusing on securing and bringing an end to hostilities while the other focusing on disarming fighters in the CAR, were suspended as a result. A third workshop on the political transition went ahead at the request of the regional grouping ECCAS.

The three-day forum for reconciliation and political dialogue, chaired by Congo’s President Denis Sassou Nguesso and backed by a contact group composed of some thirty countries, was aimed at resolving the crisis that has already left thousands of civilians dead and has driven more than a million people from their homes, with many fleeing into neighbouring Cameroon and Chad. The continuing tit-for-tat attacks have also strained delivery of humanitarian relief, with aid agencies indicating that half the country is in need of humanitarian assistance. Around 170 Central African officials were taking part in the talks, including members of transitional President Catherine Samba Panza’s government, along with lawmakers, envoys from armed groups, political parties and civil society. While the Seleka rebel group’s failure to attend the talks signifies another set back for the CAR’s return to stability, recent clashes, that broke out as the talks opened Monday, have further demonstrated that the current on the ground situation is also far from reconciliation.

On Monday, new violence broke out in Bangui with the killing of a former Seleka rebel, which has sparked reprisal attacks from the mainly Christian anti-balaka group. The African Union-led peacekeeping force in the CAR, MISCA, has blamed the anti-balaka groups for the killing, stating the victim was on his way “to get breakfast” near the main hospital when he was killed. His death sparked allies of the victim to storm out of their nearby base camp, where they began looting, robbing stores and firing off shots and taking a group of students captive. According to a MISCA source, a “…number of youth from the high school next to the hospital were also taken prisoner by the ex-Seleka.” Although MISCA and European-led forces have taken up positions to secure the hospital area, where the fighting occurred, Monday’s violence has underscored the challenge facing peace negotiators in Brazzaville.

The CAR plunged into chaos when the Seleka rebel group seized power in a March 2013 coup. Since then, there have been months of atrocities that have been carried out by rebels gone rogue, which have in turn sparked reprisal attack carried out by the mostly Christian anti-balaka vigilante group.

German Citizen Kidnapped in Northern Nigeria

Posted on in Nigeria title_rule

Police officials reported late Wednesday that gunmen riding on motorcycles have kidnapped a German national in northeastern Nigeria.

Adamawa police spokesman confirmed the incident, which occurred during the early morning hours in the town of Gombi, stating, “security agents are working assiduously to track down the kidnappers and free the hostage.” A German foreign ministry spokesman has indicated that he “was aware of the case” however the official declined to comment further. The identity of the German citizen has not been released.

Residents in Gombi, located 100 kilometers (62 miles) from Yola, the capital of Adamawa state, have identified the hostage as an instructor at a government-run technical training center, disclosing that he was attacked by about twenty gunmen outside his home in the Anguwa Faransa neighborhood, the French quarters of the city, as he left for work. One local resident reported “the kidnappers were riding on 10 motorcycles, two on each, and laid ambush around the house of the German expatriate.” The German expatriate works at the Technical Training Center (TTC), which has been set up by the regional government in Adamawa to combat the massive youth unemployment in the region. Local sources have reported that there are a number of German expatriates working at the Center.

No immediate claim of responsibility has been confirmed, however initial blame has fallen on Boko haram. While the militant group is opposed to schools teaching a so-called Western curriculum, and has in the past launched attacks targeting students and teachers, Ansaru, an offshoot of Boko Haram, has claimed responsibility for the kidnapping of at least eight foreigners in northern Nigeria since 2012. While the group has been largely dormant for more than a year, this latest kidnapping may signify that the group is ready to target foreigners in the region in a bid to fund the on going insurgency. The 2013 abduction, and subsequent release of a French family of seven, including four children, across Nigeria’s northeastern border in Cameroon is believed to have netted Boko Haram a ransom payment of several million dollars.

 

Attacks Continues in Kenya; Reconciliation Talks Begin in Brazzaville

Posted on in Central Africa Republic, Kenya title_rule

Armed men on a motorbike killed at least four people late Sunday in the Kenyan coastal city of Mombasa in an attack that left another eight people wounded.

According to Mombasa’s chief of police Robert Kitur, the attack occurred at 8:30 PM (1730 GMT) when gunmen on a motorbike shot and killed four people and injured a number others in the area of Soweto, adding that the identity of the killers remains unknown.

No one has yet claimed responsibility for the shooting however on the ground sources have reported that the gunmen also handed out leaflets stating that the attack was in retribution for last month’s violence in Mpeketoni, a town located 300 km (185 miles) north of Mombasa. In June, more than sixty people were killed in two days of violence. Despite al-Shabaab claiming responsibility for that attack, Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta blamed “local political” networks.

In recent months, Mombasa has been the scene of worsening unrest, with a string of shootings and bombings blamed on Somalia’s al-Shabaab militants or local sympathizers. The al-Qaeda-linked group has indicated that attacks carried out on Kenyan soil by al-Shabaab militants are in retaliation for Kenya’s on going military intervention in Somalia.

The attack in Mombasa comes just two days after another incident occurred on Kenya’s coast. On Friday night, seven people were killed when militants targeted a bus near the Kenyan holiday island of Lamu. Two police officers were amongst those killed. Responsibility for that attack was claimed by al-Shabaab, with the militant’s spokesman stating that the group was “ready to act or attack anywhere necessary within Kenya.”

Reconciliation Talks Begin in Brazzaville

Meanwhile the key players in the Central African Republic conflict launched new talks on Monday in neighbouring Congo. The talks are aimed at ending more than a year of sectarian bloodshed.

Congo’s President Deni Sassou Nguesso chairs the three-day forum, which will focus on reconciliation and political dialogue. Backed by a contact group, that will bring together some thirty countries and organizations, the latest talks aim to produce an accord by Wednesday that will effectively end the violence, disarm the fighters and set up a new framework for political transition. According to sources, this accord will eventually pave the way for a much-needed national reconciliation council that will take place in October in the CAR’s capital city Bangui.

Although some 170 officials from the CAR are expected to participate in these talks, including members of transitional President Catherine Samba Panza’s government, lawmakers, envoys from armed groups, political parties and civil societie, several political and religious leaders in the CAR have boycotted the talks, calling them to be held at home as the issue concerns the CAR and not the entire region. The lack of full representative envoys, coupled with the short time allocated for the talks, could hamper their chance of success. Previous peace summits held in Chad and Gabon have produced minimal lasting results.

The CAR has been in crisis since the mainly Muslim Seleka rebels seized power in March 2013. Months of atrocities carried out by rebels have sparked reprisal attacks by Christian vigilantes, with hundreds killed and thousands displaced. Despite French peacekeepers intervening in the former colony in December last year, along with a multinational force raised by the African Union, clashes between the rebels and vigilante groups have continued, with fears that the violence may result in a Rwanda-style genocide.

Nigerian President Seeks US $1 Billion to Fight Boko Haram Insurgency

Posted on in Nigeria title_rule

Days after Nigerian President sought approval from parliament to borrow up to US $1 billion (£580 million) abroad, in order to help the armed forces tackle the security threat posed by Boko Haram, Nigeria’s National Assembly has broken up for a two-month recess, effectively meaning that approval for the loan will have to wait until at least September.

On Wednesday, Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan submitted an urgent request to borrow US $1 billion abroad to help the armed forces tackle the security threat posed by Boko Haram. In his statement to Parliament, which was read to deputies by the leaders of the Senate and House of Representatives, the President stated “you are no doubt cognizant of the on-going and serious security challenges which the nation is facing as typified by the Boko Haram terrorist threat,” adding “for this reason, I seek the concurrence of the National Assembly for external borrowing of not more than $1 billion.” The president noted that this loan would be used to upgrade the equipment, training and logistics of the security forces and that such a loan could include a “government to government arrangement,” however he did not name any specific foreign country.

Nigeria’s parliament was expected to debate the issue at a time when Boko Haram’s five-year insurgency has gained international attention. However with the summer recess, both chambers of Parliament are not due to sit again until the end of their annual recess in September. While sources have indicated that it would normally take several days for such a loan to be approved the President’s request is likely to raise some questions as Nigeria’s 2014 budget already includes nearly US $6 billion in security spending while the government is facing allegations put forth by former central bank governor, Lamido Sanusi, who has stated that billions of dollars of oil revenues are failing to reach the national treasury. Once Parliament is back in session, both the lower and upper houses will debate the loan request. It will then pass the request to the committee and then back to the chamber for approval. If however the chambers differ on the request, a joint committee will be formed in order to reach an agreement on the amount the loan should be set at.

While Nigeria’s military is currently receiving training, advise and intelligence support from allies, including Britain, France, Israel and the United States, it is still struggling to counter the almost daily raids, frequent kidnappings and targeted bomb attacks carried out by Boko Haram militants. President Jonathan’s government has also been accused of not doing enough to protect civilians from such attacks.