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Serbia’s Presidential Elections: Who is Serbia’s New Strongman?

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Serbian Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic has won 54.9 per cent of the vote at the presidential election held on the 2nd of April, securing a five-year term as Serbia’s president. Addressing the press conference at the headquarters of the ruling Progressive Party, Aleksandar Vucic said he was proud of the support he received and that election results showed which direction Serbia wants to go.

The turnout for this election was 52.4 per cent, and According to the Centre for Transparency, Research and Accountability, CRTA, no major irregularities have been reported. CRTA noted irregularities in JUST 3 per cent of polling stations, including that electoral commissions sometimes did not check the personal documents of voters, failed to check whether a voter had already cast their ballot, and failed to mark voters’ fingers with special ink to ensure they did not vote again.

After his victory, the Serbia’s new president appears to be stronger than ever. Until he moves to his new office by the end of this month, Vucic will be both the prime minister and the president-elect, at the same time.

Nothing appears to get in the way of his victory – neither the fact that Serbia has now hit the lowest score on Freedom House’s Democracy Index since 2003, nor the thousands of protesters who took to the streets of Belgrade the day after the vote to claim that the elections were rigged. Nonetheless, European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker and German chancellor Angela Merkel were among the first to hail Vucic’s success, but best wishes also came from Russian president Vladimir Putin, Turkish strongman Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the EU’s bad boy, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

But who is Aleksander Vucic? The diversity of his foreign admirers reflects the multitude of faces he has been presenting at home and to the outside world.

To his Serbian critics, Vucic is no more than an autocrat who stomped out free media and subverted state institutions to his whims – something that Erdogan and Orban can surely appreciate.

In Brussels and Berlin, they see him as a pro-Western reformist, determined to bring Serbia into the EU. Also, the EU, more than ever, needs Vucic’s continued cooperation to keep the Balkan route closed.

And in Moscow, he’s welcomed as a staunch ally, who refuses to join Western sanctions against Russia, and keeps Serbia out of Nato.

In his youth, the new President was on the extreme right, but now, at age 47, he has abandoned ideology and become all things to all people.

Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party and his cabinet include reformists, nationalists, well-educated liberals, and low-educated supporters. Yet, he still somehow manages to keep them all in line.

His political agenda is equally eclectic, and his challengers – both from left and right – quickly discovered that he has co-opted many of their policies. Thus they lost the battle before the campaign had even started.

Despite Serbia has found itself in the middle of the Russia-West dynamic, Western leaders have opted for supporting the new President as he appears to be a stabilising figure. When they look at the Western Balkans, they see a deep crisis in Macedonia, paralysis in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Albania, and rampant crime and corruption in Kosovo.

Even Croatia, the only country in the region that managed to join the EU in this decade, is not exactly a paragon of stability.

The recent collapse of the retail giant Agrokor, which contributes more than 10 percent to Croatia’s GDP, is threatening to bankrupt the country.

Surrounded by neighbors like these, Serbia looks like an island of stability and, with Vucic in charge, the West at least knows what to expect.

Vucic has also proven highly cooperative on two issues that are highly important to Brussels: Kosovo and the refugee crisis.

On Kosovo, he has been engaged in the EU-sponsored normalisation talks between Belgrade and Pristina, which have been going on for several years, and produced some (albeit modest) results.

From Brussels’ perspective, as long as the two sides are talking, the possibility of renewed conflict between Serbia and its former southern province remains low.

When it comes to refugees, Serbia is in the middle of the Balkan route, which is now mostly closed. The EU wants to keep it that way, and would need Vucic’s continued cooperation on this issue as well.

Poland Marks Seven-Year Anniversary of Crash that Killed President

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Poland this month marked the seven-year anniversary of a plane crash in Russia that killed the President Lech Kaczynski, the first lady and 94 others. The president and the delegation were flying to Russia to pay tribute to Polish officers killed there by the Soviet secret police during World War II. The crash occurred as the plane was approaching the runway of the Smolensk military airport.

On 10 April, the Polish president, prime minister and top officials took part in commemorations marking seven years since a fatal presidential plane crash in western Russia. A traditional roll call of honour in front of the presidential palace in the Polish capital Warsaw was held on Monday at 8:41 AM, the exact time of the disaster on 10 April 2010. The event was attended by Prime Minister Beata Szydlo and the head of the governing Law and Justice (PiS) party, Jaroslaw Kaczynski. A series of commemorations were also held across the country.

Speaking in central Warsaw, President Andrzej Duda stated that the previous government, which was led by Civic Platform (PO) party, which is now in opposition, had failed to explain the causes of the disaster. He went on to say that the current government had a duty to uncover the truth about the tragedy.

The crash, which continues to be a source of controversy in the country, killed dozens of senior Polish government officials and military commanders. It occurred as pilots attempted to land a Soviet-made Tu-154 at a rarely used airport near Smolensk to take part in commemorations of thousands of Polish officers executed there by Soviet secret police in 1940.

The anniversary also comes as a new commission investigating the crash suggested on Monday that the Polish presidential plane was destroyed by an explosion. According to the Polish government commission, the plane probably disintegrated mid-air when explosives were detained on board – a theory that a member of a previous commission dismissed as “propaganda.” Commentary accompanying video material presented by the commission on Monday stated that “much indicates that on April 10, 2010, an explosion took place on board of the government Tupolev plane,” adding “as a result of the conducted experiments, we can say that the most likely cause of the explosion was a thermobaric charge initiating a strong shockwave.” The investigatory commission, which was created by Defense Minister Antoni Macierewicz, stated on Monday that a blast most likely tore the plane into pieces, killing all those on board just seconds before it hit the ground. It repeated allegations, which were first made in Warsaw earlier this month, that Russian air traffic controllers had deliberately set the plane on the wrong descent path. Polish prosecutors disclosed this month that they would press charges against two controllers. Moscow however has rejected the allegations.

The new commission also disclosed that besides large pieces of wreckage, there was a multitude of smaller fragments, a fact that could be explained by an explosion. The commission further disclosed that at least four victims of the crash had significant burns on their bodies, although they were found away from flames on the crash site. One of the plane doors penetrated the ground to a depth of one metre, suggesting that it had been travelling 10 times faster than the plane’s speed. The commission further noted that it had ordered a reconstruction of part of the TU-154 plane and blown it up with a thermobaric charge, adding that the damage resembled that done in the Russian crash.

Russia has so far refused to return the wreckage of the jet to Poland, citing its own continuing investigation. Last year, Polish prosecutors ordered that the coffins of the crash victims be reopened in order to check for traces of explosives. Earlier this month, prosecutors disclosed that this process will continue until next year.

A member of the previous Polish official commission to investigate the Smolensk crash, Maciej Lasek, has dismissed the findings that were published on Monday, stating that they ware “illusions presented by people who had never investigated air crashes before.” Lasek told private broadcaster TVN24 that “this is propaganda aimed at strengthening the faith…in hypothetical causes of this accident.” Lasek was the head of the stat body to investigate air crashes from 2012 until he was dismissed from the post by the current government last year. The earlier commission, which had been formed by the previous government, blamed mistakes by the Polish pilots and Russian air traffic controllers for the crash. A Russian report into the crash also blamed the poles.

Last month, the PiS government accused European Council President Donald Tusk, who was Polish prime minister at the time of the crash, of working with Russian President Vladimir Putin in a bid to harm Polish interests following the plane crash. Tusk has denied this.

US-Mexico Border Crossings at 17-Year Low

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Officials announced last week that the number of people arrested crossing the Mexico border into the United States has fallen to the lowest level in seventeen years.

According to US Customs and Border Protection, in March there were fewer than 17,000 arrests of undocumented migrants, the least since 2000.

Speaking to Congress, Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly stated that the decline was “no accident” as he credited President Donald Trump. Mr Kelly, who is a retired Marine general, testified about the figures to the Senat Homeland Security Committee. He told the panel, “we’ve seen an absolutely amazing drop in the number of migrants coming out of Central America that are taking that terribly dangerous route from Central America to the United States.” He went on to say that “March marks the fifth straight month of decline and is estimated to be approximately 71% lower than the December 2016 total – 58,478,” noting however that “…while this recent decline in illegal migration is good news, we must ensure that the security of our southern border remains a priority to protect the nation from terrorists and other criminals.” Senator John McCain asked if Mr Kelly’s agency was receiving help from Mexican officials, with Mr Kelly stating that the US was receiving “a huge amount of co-operation from the Mexicans,” citing “very, very good relationships with the Mexicans, both on their southern border where they stopped 160,000 illegal immigrants from Central America last year.”

According to data released by US Customs and Border Protection, in February 23,589 immigrants were apprehended at the border.

Also last week, the US government began accepting bids from contractors to build a prototype for a border wall. President Trump has pledged to build a “big, beautiful wall” along the 3,200 km (2,000 mile) border with Mexico. Last week at th hearing, Mr Kelly told the Senate committee that “it is unlikely that we will build a physical wall from sea to shining sea,” adding that sensors, drones and other technology will fill in gaps where the wall will not be present and that “physical barriers do work if they’re put in the right places.”

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MEPs Agree on Brexit Negotiation Plan

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Last week, the European Parliament backed a motion setting out its position for the Brexit negotiations. The vote backed the motion 516 to 133.

The motion effectively sets out general principles at the start of the two year negotiations for the United Kingdom to leave the European Union (EU) under the Article 50 Process. Speaking at a press conference on 5 April shortly after the vote, Guy Verhofstadt, the European Parliament’s Brexit negotiator, stated that the vote meant that “the UK on the one hand and the (European) Commission on the other hand now know the position of the Parliament, what the red lines are.” He went on to say that “the interests of our citizens is our first priority” and called for an early resolution on the status of EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens elsewhere in the EU.

The motion, which was supported by the two largest groups of MEPs, backs a number of positions that have been taken by EU leaders and which include the need for a “phased approach” to negotiations. This would effectively require progress on the terms of Britain’s withdrawal, including settling financial commitments, before talks on a future trading relationship can begin. It also backs the call for transparency in the talks, and for the UK to be considered liable for financial commitments that apply after it leaves the EU. It further states:

  • Transitional arrangements should be time-limited to three years and be enforced by the EU’s Court of Justice
  • UK citizens in the EU and EU citizens in Britain should receive “reciprocal” treatment
  • The final deal should not include a “trade-off” between trade and security co-operation
  • The UK should adhere to EU environmental and anti-tax evasion standards in order to get close trade ties
  • The European Banking Authority and European Medicines Agency should be moved out of London
  • The UK should pay towards costs for the EU that “arise directly from its withdrawal”

During the debate, Manfred Weber, chairman of the largest group of MEPs, the centre-right European People’s Party, stating that “cherry-picking will not happen. A state outside the European Union will not have better conditions than a state inside the European Union.” Gianna Pitella, chairman of the European Socialists and Democrats also agued that the UK “can not benefit from the same conditions as members do,” adding “if you leave the house, you still have to pay the bills.”

While the motion is not binding on European Commission officials, President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker told MEPs that “the role of this parliament is more important than ever. You must scrutinise and validate the final agreement.” He went on to say, “we will of course negotiate in friendship and openness and not in a hostile mood, with a country that has brought so much to our union and will remain close to hearts long after they have left, but this is now the time for reason over emotion,” adding, “what’s at stake here are the lives of millions of people. Millions have family or professional links to the United Kingdom.”

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GCHQ Warns Politicians About Russian Hacking Threat

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GCHQ last month warned politicians that attacks by Russian hackers could threaten British democracy.

The Sunday Times has reported that the spy agencys computer security chief has written to political parties offering advice on preventing hacks. In the letter, Ciaran Martin, chief executive of GCHQs National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) stated, you will be aware of the coverage of events in the United States, Germany and elsewhere reminding us of the potential for hostile action against the UK political system, adding this is not just about the network security of political parties own systems. Attacks against our democratic processes go beyond this and can include attacks on parliament, constituency offices, think tanks and pressure groups and individuals email accounts. He went on to say that the GCHQ would offer tailored seminars in order to help political parties understand the threats and reduce the risk of information being stolen. The letter comes after he warned back in February that Britain had been targeted with 188 attempted high-level hacks in the previous three months, noting that many of which threatened national security. Chancellor Phillip Hammond, a former defense and foreign secretary, meanwhile has disclosed that the NCSC had been blocking more than 200 attacks a day on government departments and the public over the last six months.

This comes as United States intelligence officials have accused the Kremlin of using cyber-attacks in order to influence the November 2016 presidential election. A report by US intelligence officials concluded that Russian President Vladimir Putin had ordered the hacking of the Democratic National Committee in a bid to influence the November election in favour of Republican candidate Donald Trump. Meanwhile Germanys domestic intelligence chief warned in December 2016 of increasingly aggressive cyber-espionage by a hacking group believed to be controlled by the Russian state. UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson however has stated that so far there has been no evidence of any successful attacks in the UK. This month, Mr Johnson told ITVs Peston On Sunday that we have no evidence that the Russians are actually involved in trying to undermine our democratic processes at the moment. We dont actually have that evidenceBut what we do have is plenty of evidence that the Russians are capable of doing that. And there is no doubt that they have been up to all sorts of dirty tricks. The foreign secretary went on to say that there was very little doubt that the Kremlin was behind the hacking in the US, cyber-attacks on French TV stations and an attempted coup in Montenegro. Russia however has rejected these allegations.