Ukraine invasion into Russia

Ukraine invasion into Russia

Key Judgement:

• It is highly likely that Ukrainian offensive would damage Russian war capability.
• It is likely that Ukraine offensive is to create breakthrough in Eastern Ukraine, in both strategic and political ground. It is realistically possible this would ultimately lead to takeover of Ukrainian territories
• It is unlikely that Ukrainian forces would be able to advance to major Russian cities in deep Russian territory.

The Ukraine war has been in a protracted stalemate, with both sides struggling to make significant advances in Eastern Ukraine. Due to a shortage of manpower, shells, and resources, Ukraine has faced challenges in breaking through Russian defences, while Russian forces have made only minor gains, capturing a few small Ukrainian towns. For more than a year, both sides was able to conduct simple ariel strikes.

However, the recent Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region, launched on August 6, 2024, has demonstrated that Ukrainian forces still possess the capability to alter the course of the conflict. Within a few weeks, Ukrainian forces gained control of more than 100 villages and towns and captured more than 600 Russian POWs. This offensive has opened a new front against Russia, potentially creating a buffer zone to protect the Kyiv region from Russian offensives and artillery attacks. Since the withdrawal of Russian forces from northern Ukraine, Russian artillery, drones, and glide bombers have been consistently targeting the Ukrainian capital, striking critical infrastructure and civilian areas.

Strategically, this offensive is designed to force Russian forces in southern and eastern Ukraine to shift their focus to the Kursk region, thereby weakening their defences elsewhere. Ukrainian mechanized forces, with their high mobility, were able to conduct advancement in Kursk, and with established ground in Kursk, Ukrainian forces would be able of continuing their offensive by flanking entrenched Russian positions. To prevent the collapse of the entire Eastern Ukraine frontline, Russia is being forced to redeploy their troops to Kursk. Some Russian forces are being redeployed from Easter Ukraine and other foreign countries. Despite an unexpectedly robust response from Russian forces, the strategic surprise achieved by this offensive is likely to cause significant disruption to Russian military operations.

Politically, this offensive could represent a significant victory for Ukraine. Currently, the most pressing threat to Ukraine’s survival is not Russian military action but shifting international support. The ongoing war in the Gaza Strip and the rise of far-right parties in the European Parliament have dampened public opinion in Western countries, making continued support for Ukraine increasingly expensive and politically challenging. The perceived failure of previous Ukrainian offensives has further complicated the effort to maintain Western support.

Another critical factor in Ukrainian diplomacy is the upcoming U.S. presidential election. The foreign policy of former President Trump, who is a candidate, is difficult to predict, but a new Trump administration would likely reverse many of the current U.S. foreign policies, including support for Ukraine. President Biden’s administration has been a key factor in Ukraine’s ability to resist Russian aggression, providing humanitarian aid, military equipment, and imposing sanctions on Russia.

However, President Biden’s declining political standing, exacerbated by his performance in recent debates and the failed assassination attempt on Trump, led to Biden’s withdrawal from the election. Vice President Kamala Harris has since become the Democratic candidate, and her candidacy has shifted the political landscape. Both candidate is still in very tight competition, making it very difficult to predict the result of the election. The success of the ongoing Ukrainian offensive is likely aimed at influencing U.S. public opinion, demonstrating Ukraine’s resilience and capability in the face of Russian aggression.

And lastly, President Putin’s persona as the great defender of Russian people have been significantly damaged since the Ukrainian success in Kursk region. Although the tightly controlled Russian society is not showing any significant agitation, the fact that Ukrainian forcer are able to hold ground in Russian territory for more than a month can have a significant long-term effect on Russian public opinion.

The Ukrainian offensive in Kursk could open new opportunities for Ukraine, both militarily and diplomatically. While it is unlikely that Ukraine can maintain a permanent occupation of Russian territories due to military and diplomatic constraints, the operation could destabilize Russian forces and morale. The primary objective appears to be securing continued U.S. and Western support and creating a breakthrough in occupied Ukrainian territories. This offensive may prove pivotal in altering the course of the conflict and sustaining international backing for Ukraine.