Tag Archives: Terrorism

Understanding Kobane

The battle in Kobane (also spelled ‘Kobani’) is being called “the most decisive battle” in the campaign against ISIS, yet help has been slow to arrive. For weeks the town’s residents have been under siege as ISIS has battles to take control of the region, causing thousands of Syrian refugees to flee into Turkey.

Despite the increasing humanitarian crisis and the consequence of letting Kobanefall into ISIS hands, the town has been omitted from US and coalition strategy. Fighting began in the town on 16 September, and while the US has conducted air-strikes around the town, US Secretary of State John Kerry said in Mid October that “Kobane does not define the strategy for the coalition in respect to [ISIL].” It was only on Sunday that the US began to air-drop weapons and supplies to Kurdish fighters.  Earlier today, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said he had been informed that agreement was reached for 200 Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga reinforcements to pass through Turkey to help defend Kobane. It is expected that ISIS will take heavy losses numbering into several hundreds, yet they are prepared to do so.

Kobane’s Importance to ISIS

The fall of Kobane would result in a major strategic win for ISIS for a number of reasons. First, it is a heavily agricultural region. A large percentage of the residents are farmers, and there is significant grain and wheat production. Access to this agricultural resource would be a boon for ISIS, in terms of supporting the population within its own territory and providing another avenue of income.

Second, Kobane sits on the Turkish border with Syria. If ISIS were to capture the town, they would gain a significant and strategic expansion of their territory along the Turkish border. Capture of the region would give ISIS control over a main road that connects Raqqa, the city which headquarters ISIS operations, with Aleppo. Further, it would add an additional border crossing for weapons, supplies, and radicalised fighters to enter into ISIS controlled territory.

Finally, the predominant strategic value of Kobane is that is a majority Kurdish town. An ISIS win at Kobane would weaken the Kurdish resistance. Kobane is one of three administrative cantons of the Syrian Kurds. If it Kobane falls, it will weaken the other cantons which secure Syria’s 1,200 kilometre border with Syria. Effectively, a win in Kobane could potentially allow ISIS to capture full control of the Turkish Border.

Kobane’s Importance to the Kurds

Kobane has become a symbol of Kurdish aspirations for an autonomous state. One analyst states, “Kobane symbolises the Kurdish resistance, not only in Syria but in other parts of the Middle East. Its loss would translate into a defeat for the entire Kurdish nation.”

The Turkish and Syrian Kurdish community remains close in culture, language and proximity. In the early 1900s, Kobane stretched across both Turkey and Syria. In 1921, a border was put in place by Mustafa Kemal, dividing the Kurdish village in two. The demarcation is a railroad that has served as the border between the two nations. Since the siege on the town, over 100,000 refugees from Kobane and other nearby towns have fled to the Turkish side, now called Mursitpinar.

This closeness of Syrian and Turkish Kurds has remained in place. The current crisis has gelled efforts to keep Kobane standing. Over several weeks of fighting, Kobane has resisted falling to ISIS occupation, creating a symbol of resilience against ISIS and hope in the face of others who have denied Kurdish autonomy. Mostafa Minawi, director of the Ottoman and Turkish Studies Initiative at Cornell University.”Kobane [now] lies at the heart of a Kurdish dream. It is less connected with history and more connected with future ambitions. Kobane was phase one of the implementation of a wider local-rule model [for both Syria’s and Turkey’s Kurds].”

Kobane’s Importance to Turkey

Despite the threat of an ISIS capture of Kobane and the imminent threat on his border, President Erdogan has appeared slow and reluctant to provide aid to Kurdish fighters. “For Turkey,” one analyst says, “Kobane is essentially a PKK issue.” Erdogan has long opposed the establishment of a Greater Kurdistan, and Ankara has deemed the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) a terrorist organization.

Earlier this week, the US delivered air-dropped weapons and medical supplies in Kobane, which were provided by Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government. Erdogan criticized the move. In a statement today, Erdogan criticised the move. In a phone call between Erdogan and US President Barack Obama, Erdogan said, “America did this in spite of Turkey, and I told him Kobani is not currently a strategic place for you. If anything it is strategic for us.”

Several analysts, as well as the Kurdish population have become critical of Erdogan’s intentions. They believe that the Turkish government has purposefully delayed the allowance assistance to Kurdish fighters, allowing ISIS to ‘do the dirty work’ of reducing the gains that Syrian Kurds have made in the power vacuum of the Syrian war. Critics use as evidence Erdogan’s call for the establishment of a buffer zone in Syria, citing it as an attempt to occupy the region.

In fact, Erdogan has used Kobane as a negotiating chip with the PKK. In order for Iraqi Kurds to supply Syrian Kurds with weapons or fighters, their options are to cross through ISIS controlled territory, or go through Turkey. The former is unrealistic; the latter requires permission from the Turkish government, which has been slow coming as Turkey has sought to bolster their position against a Kurdish nation. To this end, peace talks between Kurdish leaders and Turkey have been jeopardised as Kurdish leaders interpret Erdogan’s stance as tacit support for ISIS. Leaders in Ankara deny supporting ISIS but it has become apparent to some analysts that they are using the situation as an opportunity to gain an upper hand with the Kurds.

As a result, Turkey finds itself pressured by the coalition and forced to work in tandem with a group that it opposes. The outcome in Kobane will not only be significant to ISIS, but will have longstanding ramifications for the Kurds in the diaspora and their relationship with Turkey.

Is Libya a Failed state?

Libya has fallen into chaos since the 2011 overthrow of long time dictator Moammar Gadhafi. On 15 October, Egyptian warplanes bombed positions in Benghazi, citing a request by the Libyan administration in Tobruk to assist in battling the militias that have overrun the country. One senior Egyptian official said, “This is a battle for Egypt not Libya.” The fear of the chaos in Libya spreading beyond its borders has caused neighbouring countries to initiate a series of defensive actions, from strengthening border patrols and evacuating citizens, to engaging in attacks. Inside Libya, the country remains paralysed as the country continues its third year of battles.

Failed states often have certain key characteristics:

• A weakened central government
• Little central control over the nation
• Rampant corruption or crime
• Involuntary movement or displacement of the population
• Economic instability or decline
• Failure to provide public services

In light of these characteristics, is it fair to argue that Libya has become a failed state?

It can easily be argued that Libya has a weak central government. On 4 September, the newly elected Libyan government announced that it no longer had control of Tripoli. Militant group Fajr Libya took control of the nation’s capital after several weeks of fighting, and recalled the outgoing government, the Islamist dominated General National Congress (GNC) to resume operations. Meanwhile, the elected government, the House of Representatives, is currently conducting operations from within a 1970s hotel in Tobruk, a thousand miles from the capital. Attempts by the United Nations to negotiate peace talks between the two rival governments came to a standstill in early October. Earlier this week, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon arrived in Tripoli to hold talks with the warring factions. A UN statement on Twitter said Ban “will urge Libyan parties to push forward with political dialogue to restore stability to (the) country.”

Currently, neither of the rival governments carries significant central control over the nation. The country has been divided along tribal groups and militia loyalties. In the east, Ansar al Sharia and other organisation have engaged in battles to create an autonomous region. General Khalifa Hifter has engaged in numerous battles to ‘eliminate’ the radicalised elements that are working to destabilise the nation’s unity. In the west, the region is battling between supporters of the outgoing GNC and the House of Representatives. In the south, clashes between clans have dominated the battles; in April, France referred to the region as a “viper’s nest” of Islamist militants.

The battles among the armed militias and their attempts to enforce dominance in various regions, has led to rampant corruption and crime. The nation has seen an uptick in kidnapping (including the kidnapping of government officials), assassination attempts, offices of businesses and the government held hostage, rampant shootings. Activist group Human Rights Watch has observed that in 2014, there have been at least 250 politically motivated assassinations in Benghazi and Derna alone. They add, “No one has claimed responsibility and there have been no known arrests for the killings. Libyan authorities have failed to conduct investigations, or prosecute those responsible for any of the unlawful killings since 2011, fostering a culture of impunity that has fuelled further abuses.” The lawlessness and clashes in major cities, has caused many residents involuntarily relocate their families to safer regions. This is particularly true in Tripoli and Benghazi.  The United Nations Human Rights Council has estimated that 287,000 people in 29 cities and towns countrywide have been displaced.

Libya has suffered steady economic decline in recent years. Several militias, as well as the rival governments are battling for control of the nation’s vast oil reserves. In 2013, the economy was frozen by blockades of oil export terminals in the East. Last month, ship operators announced that cargo imports into Libya have dropped by an estimated 75%, in large part due to the closure of banks in the nation. These closures affected the ability of Libyan importers to make payments or open letters of credit. Further exacerbating the imports are violence at ports and destinations, the absence of inland transportation, damage to warehouse facilities and the increasing cost of insurance premiums for operations in Libya. It is estimated that Libya’s budget deficit could more than double to 19 billion Libyan dinars ($15 billion) in 2014.

Finally, Libya is struggling to maintain public services including water and electricity. In August, power was cut across most Libyan cities and towns, including Benghazi and Ajdabia. Libya’s General Electricity Company said the blackouts were due to “the acute shortage of fuel supplies to generating stations in the southern areas. Major power transmission circuits which supply Tripoli and neighboring areas have been damaged as well. Other major circuits are also out of service in the eastern area.” Meanwhile, last month leaders in Sirte held an emergency meeting to discuss the shortage of drinking water.

Libya currently has a number of worrying factors, suggesting that if it is not a failed state, it could certainly become one. The UN is currently working to reignite talks between warring factions in hopes of creating a smooth transition of power between the GNC and the House of Representatives. The House of Representatives, for its part, is working to cut the budget deficit for 2015, establish a strong and loyal army, and ensure an increase of public services and a decline in crime and corruption. However, these endeavours may only become successful in the absence of armed militias and radicalised groups. Libya may lean heavily on outside support to bring it back from the brink.

Ansar Beit Al Maqdis releases second beheading video

5 October, 2014– Ansar Beit al Maqdis (ABM), a Sinai-based militant group, released a video showing the execution of four men accused of spying for the Israeli intelligence service, Mossad, and the Egyptian army. In the video, the four men recorded their ‘confessions’ and urged other ‘spies’ to publicly repent. The victims said that ABM knows who the spies are, and they will not be spared.  Three of the victims were beheaded, their heads placed atop their backs. A fourth was shot multiple times.

In the video, an ABM spokesman cautioned that the militants would storm peoples’ homes to kill and capture those they suspected as being army agents. The video is the second depicting ABM beheading victims accused of spying for Egypt or Israel. A video released in August shows the beheading of four Egyptians accused of providing Israel with intelligence for an air strike that killed three of its fighters. In September, Sinai residents found a decapitated corpse bearing a note signed ABM. The victim was also accused of being an Israeli spy.

The ABM videos are similar to those released by ISIS, and underscore the connection between ABM and the notorious group. A spokesman for ABM said last month that ISIS had been advising them on how to operate more effectively. This weekend’s footage shows members of Ansar Beit al Maqdis manning checkpoints to search for spies, and overlays statements from a September speech given by ISIS spokesman Abu Mohamed al-Adnani, in which he urges Sinai-based militants to kill Egyptian security personnel.

In what appears to be a response to this call, Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis announced they would launch attacks targeting police and soldiers during Eid al-Adha, an Islamic holiday which began on Saturday.

Prior to the holiday, on Thursday unknown assailants travelling by motorbike threw a bag containing a bomb near the municipal governor’s in Egypt’s Gharbia governorate. The blast wounded Gharbia security chief, Mohamed Rizk, and a security guard. One of the men is said to be in a critical condition. One security source says at least five explosions hit the governorate on Thursday; the bombers are suspected to be members of ABM. On Sunday, a ‘sound bomb’ detonated near the Evangelical Church in Minya. No casualties or damage has been reported. ABM has not taken responsibility for this attack.

Ansar Beit al-Maqdis has been a major security threat since the ouster of President Mohamed Morsi in 2013. The group has killed hundreds of police officers and military personnel and targeted security infrastructure. The attacks have also resulted in civilian casualties. Authorities have struggled to combat ABM and to dismantle their relationship with ISIS. On Sunday, security forces have arrested four Egyptian nationals who were suspected members of a militant cell recruiting fighters for ISIS.

On 3 October, the Egyptian army announced that they have killed twelve militants and arrested 68 in raids across four different governorates: North Sinai, Ismailia, Port Said and Daqahlia. Among those killed was Mohamed Abu Shatiya, a field commander of Ansar Beit al-Maqdis. The military also claims to have seized 17 vehicles and 49 motorcycles, and destroyed a field hospital which was used by the militants. The government is in the midst of a large-scale campaign to eradicate militant groups in the region, and has systematically demolished houses and tunnels being used by extremists.

UN-led Talks in Libya Halted

2 October– The group Fajr Libya (Dawn of Libya) has rejected UN-led talks that have called for a cease-fire in the struggling nation. Fajr Libya, an Islamist group based out of Misrata, took control of Tripoli and the country’s top religious body, Dar al-Ifta, in September. The battle for Tripoli caused nearly 25,000 residents to flee their homes and caused foreign nationals to evacuate the nation. Fajr Libya reinstated the outgoing government– Islamist dominated General National Congress (GNC) – forcing the House of Representatives, the newly elected and internationally recognised government, to operate from Tobruk. The move created two rival and hostile centres of government power, both of whom consider the other to be illegitimate.

Fajr Libya’s rejection of UN-brokered talks came after a day or attempted reconciliation on in Monday in Libya’s south-western town of Ghadames. UN mission chief Bernardino Leon described the first day as “positive” and “constructive.” After Monday’s talks, both sides had agreed on the need for a ceasefire, for humanitarian aid for victims of clashes in Tripoli, and to work to reopen airports closed by fighting.

On Tuesday, however, momentum was halted after Dar al-Ifta, led by hard-liner al-Sadek al-Gharyani, announced that Libya’s “clerics demand the suspension of talks with the Tobruk parliament.” The suspension is pending a Supreme Constitutional Court on the legitimacy of the House of Representatives, and whether the Tobruk-based government violated the constitution by calling the militias “terrorists” and asking for international intervention. The body no one has “the right to negotiate” with Tobruk-based lawmakers because they deviated from the principles of Islam and Libya.

The Tripoli-based Supreme Constitutional Court is supposed to rule next month, but diplomats fear it will not be able to issue an independent verdict as it is controlled by Fajr Libya.

The Fajr Libya coalition has since denounced the dialogue and declared that it was continuing with its “military operations.” The group posted on their Facebook page that the way to end the fighting is to “disarm its rivals and hunt down their leaders.” Similarly, the eastern based Shura of Benghazi Revolutionaries issued a similar statement rejecting the initiative as “unfair”.

These moves underscore the polarisation that has divided the nation since the overthrow of Moammar Gadhafi in 2011. From Tobruk, the new government has denounced Fajr Libya, calling the assault on Tripoli an act of terrorism. The group passed a resolution to disarm militias controlling the capital.

In the next move, the UN seeks to meet with the boycotting militias to reignite talks. Bernardino Leon seeks to get militias out of the main cities, and then to “reorganize the security in the country with an army.” Fajr Libya has not made comment on the attempts by the UN, However one Misrata based representative said, “We have to comply to what the Dar al-Ifta has called for.”

Meanwhile, a former Libyan militia leader, Abdelhakim Belhadj, has put himself forward as the “saviour” for Libya. Belhadj is a self-described former jihadi who fought against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan with Osama bin Laden when the group had the backing of the US. Belhadj claims he was later abducted and “rendered” by the CIA, but vehemently disavows any ties to Al Qaeda “as organization or even as an ideology.”

Currently, Belhadj is the leader of Libya’s conservative al-Watan party. While he does not have great electoral success, he does have great influence among the militia groups. He says he supports negotiations between the opposition parties, and backs the exiled government in Tobruk. He states, “We have to unite around one goal, which is a democratic state, and to build relationships with other countries based on mutual trust and mutual respect […] The growth of terrorism now is something that we oppose strongly and we will make every effort to deal with it in a way that is in line with the vision of the majority of Libyans.”

US Targets Khorasan Group

On 22 September, the US began targeted strikes against ISIS in Syria, and conducted a separate mission to target the “Khorasan group.” The Khorasan group, a.k.a Jabhat al-Nusra (JAN) is a militant group which according to the Pentagon, is comprised of seasoned al Qaeda veterans.

The Khorasan group has gained public attention in the past week; however they are believed to have been operating in Syria for over a year. U.S. Central Command believes the core group, which has fewer than 100 members, is using the anarchy in Syria to create a haven from which to “plot attacks, build and test roadside bombs and recruit Westerners to carry out operations.” Michael Leiter, the former director of the National Counterterrorism Center, said, “Khorasan is less of a threat to the region and more of a threat to the U.S. homeland than ISIS.” The group is known to be actively recruiting Westerners for plots against American and European interests. Recently, the group was known to be working bomb makers from al Qaeda’s Yemen affiliate to test new ways to slip explosives past airport security. Earlier this year, a recent ban on uncharged mobile phones arose from information that al Qaeda was working with Khorasan.

The name Khorasan is an ancient Islamic historical term used to describe the areas of Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran. The group have been known to be operating in Syria for the past year, led by 33 year old Muhsin al Fadhli. In 2012, the US State Department offered a $7 million reward for information on Fadhli’s whereabouts. He was known to be an al Qaeda financier with ties to Osama bin Laden, and among the few who knew in advance about the 9/11 attacks. Fadhli arrived in Syria in April 2013 and joined with al-Nusra Front, however at some point in the past year, they parted ways. It is believed the Khorasan Group is mimicking the social media tactics used by ISIS to recruit Westerners, with the goal of training them and sending them home to target locales in the West.

The US Director of Operations at the Joint Chiefs of Staff stated that they had been watching Fadhli and the group for some time, and believed they were “nearing the execution phase of an attack either in Europe or the homeland.” The intelligence community discovered the plots against the United States in the past week, but did not identify the target. Sources did add that the plot may have involved a bomb made of clothes dipped in explosive material.

On 23 September, the US dropped 40 Tomahawk missiles, striking eight targets to the west of Aleppo. The targets were believed to be Khorasan group strongholds. The US is currently assessing whether Fadhli was killed in the airstrikes. One anonymous US official stated “We believe he is dead,” however it has not been independently confirmed, and such confirmation could take time.

The U.S. attack on Khorasan Group targets this were a strategic surprise, as the US intended to catch the group off guard by mixing strikes against ISIS with strikes against Khorasan group targets.