CIA revises ISIS numbers

On 12 September, a CIA assessment revealed that ISIS ranged has the capacity to muster between 20,000 and 31,500 fighters across Iraq and Syria. This number is three times higher than the previous estimates, which indicated that there were approximately 10,000 militants fighting for the group. According to the CIA, the sharp increase is the result of stronger recruitment after ISIS conducted a battlefield campaign across northern Iraq, gaining a large swath of territory and declaring a caliphate in Iraq and Syria.

The information released from the report does not appear to specify who is considered a ‘fighter’, such as women or youths. Mowaffak al-Rubaie, a former Iraqi national security adviser and current parliament member said that ISIS is targeting youths “as young as 8 and 9 years old,” giving them AK-47s and brainwashing them with “this evil ideology.” Al-Rubaie added that this was similar to the method that al Qaeda in Iraq recruited in the past, but on a larger scale.

The CIA report does not suggest whether the fighters are actually members of ISIS, or militants currently fighting against the Syrian government, but could be called upon to fight with ISIS. According to the report, approximately 15,000 foreign fighters have joined the militant group, representing some 80 countries. The number includes as many as 2,000 Westerners. Al-Rubaie estimates that among foreign fighters, Iraqis and Syrians comprise over 70%, adding that “thousands” of Iraqis joined ISIS after their capture of Mosul in June.

It is believed that many fighters have crossed into ISIS-controlled territory in northern Iraq through Turkey. It is expected that they could permeate the borders of Lebanon, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, causing elevated national security threats in those nations.

The revised estimate of fighters comes after a series of unmanned reconnaissance flights over the region. The US has increased the number of surveillance flights to nearly 60 per day over Iraq, in order to gather intelligence regarding whether and where to launch airstrikes in the region. The Pentagon has also announced it would begin “armed and manned” flights for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance purposes. The crafts would fly from the Kurdish regional capital, Erbil, as supplements to the unmanned flights.

Pentagon spokesman, Rear Admiral John Kirby, said the increased estimates will not alter how the United States approaches ISIS, stating,” We’re not just simply about degrading and destroying … the 20 to 30,000 (ISIS fighters). It’s about degrading and destroying their capabilities to attack targets, particularly Western targets. It’s about destroying their ideology.” One unnamed US official said the military can launch airstrikes at any time if there is a ‘target of opportunity’. The US has already conducted over 150 airstrikes against ISIS. Additional tactics would involve targeting the group’s leadership, which the US has not yet done.

A coalition of nations has been assembled with the aim of eroding the power of ISIS, and eventually destroying the group. Nearly 40 nations have joined the coalition; however it is unknown what specific roles each nation will play. In large part, members of the coalition have agreed to send equipment and/or humanitarian aid, or conduct surveillance missions, but none have committed to putting boots on the ground. Those who are willing to engage in ground battle include Iraqi Kurdistan’s Peshmerga forces and other indigenous forces from Syria and Iraq, including trained Syrian rebels, Iraqi forces, Kurdish forces and Sunni tribes.

Within the regional vicinity, Turkey is working to cut the financial flow to ISIS, and has denied entry and deported ‘several thousand foreign fighters heading to Syria to join the extremists’. Jordan has agreed to provide intelligence to the West. It is thought that Saudi Arabia, which has already provided $500 toward UN humanitarian efforts, will also host anti-ISIS training camps. Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt have been urged to use their television networks to spread anti-ISIS messages as well as encouraging clerics to speak out against the group. The Egyptian government has met with US Secretary of State John Kerry to discuss the “critical role” Egypt will play in countering ISIS ideology, however no public details have been released. Last week, Egypt’s grand mufti, the highest ranking Islamic scholar in the land, condemned ISIS and underscored that their actions are not in line with Islam. Qatar has conducted a number of humanitarian flights.

Iran has declined to join the coalition. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei tweeted that he rejected cooperating with the United States “because (the) US has corrupted its hands in this issue.” Khamanei has vocally accused the United States of planning to use military action against ISIS to “dominate the region.” The absence of Iran in the coalition may put other nations at ease; Iran has been in conflict with Turkey, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia for years.

Nations outside of the Middle East that will join the coalition include Australia, the UK, France, Germany, Canada, Italy, Poland, Denmark, Albania, Croatia, New Zealand, Romania and South Korea.

AQ, ISIS Compete for South Asian Primacy

On 5 September, al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri released a video announcing the formation of a new South Asian branch of AQ, “Qaedat al-Jihad in the Indian Subcontinent.” Zawahiri stated the group will “raise the flag of jihad” across the Indian subcontinent, as well as Myanmar and Bangladesh, and called upon Muslims “to wage jihad against its enemies, to liberate its land, to restore its sovereignty and to revive its caliphate.” Zawahiri states that a south Asian wing would benefit Muslims in Myanmar, Bangladesh and in the Indian states of Assam, Gujarat, Jammu and Kashmir, who would be freed from “injustice and oppression.”

In his message, also Zawahiri also announced that Pakistani militant Asim Umar would be the emir of al Qaeda’s South Asian wing, entrusted with reviving the network in the area spanning from Afghanistan to Myanmar. Little is known of Umar: he is believed to be in his mid-forties and is perceived as an ideologist and intellectual rather than a fighter. He is thought have had a crucial role in creating radicalized seminaries and madrassas, and he is known to have strong connections with Islamic seminaries in Pakistan, Iraq and Afghanistan. It is believed that Umar organised Osama bin Laden’s move to a safe house in Abbottabad, where the 9/11 mastermind he lived for years prior to his capture by U.S. forces.

Zawahiri’s announcement signifies an attempt for AQ resurgence in south Asia, where the group was considerably weakened over a series of targeted attacks in Afghanistan and Pakistan by the US and allied forces. While the core group was diminished, affiliates have gained momentum in the Middle East and Africa. The group took advantage of power vacuums created during the 2011 Arab uprisings that swept the Middle East and North Africa to spread their ideologies. Thus, while AQ central has become weaker, the group’s affiliates have gained strength in several places including Mali, Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, Libya, Yemen, Syria and Iraq. In Africa, AQ has affiliates have gained in Somalia through al-Shabaab, which has spread chaos into Uganda and Kenya, and in Nigeria through Boko Haram, which has affected north-eastern Nigeria, Cameroon and Niger. These affiliates are now considerably stronger than the core AQ group. The announcement of a new AQ wing in South Asia indicates that the group has accepted this new ‘business model’ and seeks to reassert its relevance in the region by opening a new branch.

Following the release of Zawahiri’s 55 minute video message, India’s intelligence bureau issued security alerts across several provinces in the county. Zawahiri’s announcement came just hours after several news reports announced that the militant group ISIS was also conducting recruitment operations in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The news reports indicated that ISIS militants were distributing pamphlets in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa region; the pamphlets called for the establishment of a caliphate in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran. Zawahiri’s speech appeared to emphasise that the formation of the branch was not in direct response to ISIS, but the culmination of a longer process. In his message, he said, “This entity was not established today but is the fruit of a blessed effort of more than two years to gather the mujahedeen in the Indian sub-continent into a single entity.”

ISIS influence in India

Prior to the news reports on 5 September, ISIS was believed to focus its efforts on developing a ‘caliphate’ in areas the group had conquered in Iraq and Syria. In July, the group called for Muslims around the world to join them in establishing their new location. However it appears now that ISIS agents have been widening their efforts to recruit members of India’s Muslim community, the second largest in the world, with over 175 million Muslims.

In a speech on 5 July, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the ‘caliph’ of ISIS, made three specific references to India, first stating that Muslim rights in the nation were “forcibly seized”, then referencing atrocities committed against Muslims in Kashmir. Finally, he included India in a reference that the caliphate had “gathered the Caucasian, Indian, Chinese, Shami, Iraqi, Yemeni, Egyptian, Maghrabi, American, French, German and Australian” recruits. It is known that some Indians have already left their nation to join ISIS in Iraq and Syria. On 25 August, Indian engineering student Arif Ejaz Majeed became the first Indian reported to be killed while fighting for ISIS in Iraq. He and three friends reportedly went missing in May, and made contact with their families in June to notify them that the quartet had travelled to Iraq to join the radical group.

ISIS does not have a physical presence in India, yet through social media, the group is seeking to develop a ‘fringe’ subculture amongst potential followers in the region. Like other extreme groups, ISIS has cultivated a message which exploits the emotions of socially or economically marginalised people while simultaneously issuing a welcome for Muslims into their caliphate. The tactic is intended to attract dissatisfied members of Indian Muslim community and encourage those disenchanted individuals to do the ‘heavy lifting’ to attract others. An example of this effort already taking shape is a group called al-Isabah Media Production. The media production group is under the umbrella of a new group called Ansar ut-Tawhid fi Bilad al-Hind (Supporters of Monotheism in the Land of India). This group translates ISIS propaganda into Hindu, Urdu and Tamil, and then delivers the messages through social media. While al-Isabah’s social media profiles on YouTube, Facebook and Twitter were removed after discovery, they still spread information through online chat rooms and other forums. This shows that ISIS does not necessarily need a physical presence in order to gain momentum in the region. This momentum has been most visible in the highly disputed region of Kashmir, where reports emerged that ISIS flags were being raised by young Muslim protestors in Srinagar. During two instances in July, young men in black masks raised the ISIS flag during protests of the Israeli airstrikes in Gaza. The incidents raised concerns in Kashmir, where Sunni and Shi’a Muslims have lived together harmoniously, that the introduction of ISIS ideology could create a sectarian divide. India has a very strong moderate Islamic core which is unlikely to allow space for ISIS or AQ, however, the instances where the militant groups have gained sympathy indicate that there are areas where troubles are significant enough for the groups to exploit by introducing an artificial identity crisis.

Competition or Unity

ISIS, formerly al-Qaeda in Iraq, severed ties with AQ in early 2014. ISIS quickly gained prominence through masterful use of propaganda and their rapid advancement through Iraq and Syria. The divergent groups have since been competing for new recruits, but AQ has been left overshadowed by ISIL’s media savvy. In part, AQ has been consistently overshadowed because its leader, Zawahiri, has remained underground, while ISIS has brazenly announced is movements. It could be this distinction that drove Zawahiri into making his rare appearance last week.

In Zawahiri’s message, he states, “O mujahideen, unite and reject differences and discord, and hold firm to the rope of Allah and be not divided amongst yourselves.” These references to rejecting differences could be a veiled message to encourage the groups to unite. He adds, “This entity, Allah permitting, was established to unite with its mujahideen brothers and the Muslims all over the world, and to crush the artificial borders established by the English occupiers to divide the Muslims in the Indian subcontinent.”

It is possible that Zawahiri is desperate to reunite ISIS and AQ in order to form one organisation rather than competing for a market share of radicalised minds. There is no indication, however, that ISIS intends to reunite with AQ. On the contrary, ISIS has actively urged AQ affiliates to leave their branch and join the newer organization.

Iraqi Parliament Selects New Prime Minister

On 11 August, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was effectively deposed. Early in the day, the Iraqi National Alliance, a coalition of mostly Shi’a political parties, nominated deputy parliament speaker Dr. Hadier al-Abadi to become the new Prime minister. Shortly after newly elected President Fouad Massoum asked officially gave al-Abdadi his first responsibility as prime minister: to form a new government within the next 30 days. Nouri al-Maliki has declared that he will fight the decision, stating that Abadi’s nomination has no legitimacy. He called the move “dangerous violation” of the constitution, and vowed to “fix this mistake.” Under the Iraqi constitution, the president must appoint the chosen nominee of the largest parliamentary bloc. Al-Abadi comes from the same political party as Maliki. Immediately prior to the decision, Maliki had ordered his elite army units into the streets of Baghdad in a show of force. However, a senior government official said commanders of military forces that Maliki deployed around Baghdad had pledged loyalty to President Fouad Masoum, and agreed to to respect his decision to ask Abadi to form a new government. On 12 August, a statement appeared on Maliki’s official website ordering security forces not intervene in the conflict over who will be the next prime minister. Rather, they should remain focused on defending the country. Maliki has been widely derided for implementing pro-Shi’a sectarian regulations that have widely disenfranchised and alienated Sunni Muslims in Iraq during his eight-year tenure. It is believed that his sectarian policies spurred the actions of ISIS, the terrorist organisation that has taken over vast swaths of Iraqi land and Syria in recent months. Despite Maliki’s claims that the ouster was illegitimate, Iraqi media channels have already widely welcomed al-Abdadi, with some pro-Sunni stations criticising his refusal to step-down for the sake of the nation. Beyond Iraq, the appointment of al-Abadi has been met with welcome by many among the international community. Jordanian media has issued congratulations to the new Prime Minister. EU foreign policy Chief Catherine Ashton called Abadi’s appointment a “positive step”. US Secretary of State John Kerry stated that Washington is prepared to “fully support a new and inclusive Iraqi government”, urging Abadi to quickly form a fully functional cabinet: “We are prepared to consider additional political, economic and security options as Iraq’s government starts to build a new government.” In Iran, a nation that was once considered an ally by al-Maliki, the decision to remove him from office has been regarded as a positive one. Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, has offered his congratulations to al-Abadi and the Iraqi people. Shamkhani is a close ally of Iranian President Rouhani, and a representative of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Iranian recognition of Abadi appears to eliminate Maliki’s main avenue of support of regaining power. Iran perceives ISIS as a threat to their national security. The Iranian government believes that in order to quell the spread of the terror group, Iraq must have a unity government, which Maliki has openly opposed. Abadi, a British-educated electrical engineer in his mid 60s, also served as an intermediary between diplomats and Western journalists in Iraq. He was exiled to England during the reign of Saddam Hussein when the Dawa party which he represented was banned from the country. He is perceived as a considerably more moderate and unifying figure than his predecessor. In order to prove his ability to form a unity government, he must reintroduce Sunni and Kurdish officials into senior positions in the Iraqi government and military. Under Maliki’s regime, all senior positions were held by Shi’a officials. He has little time to not only implement a unity government, but to also raise morale in the nation, as Sunni Muslims and other denominations will want to see immediate change, and the Kurds are pushing ever harder for an autonomous state. As one writer put it, the threat to Iraq is “existential, not political.”

Egypt Update: Second Suez Canal Project, National Security Issues

On 5 August, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi announced the nation’s plan to build a new Suez Canal. The new canal will be built alongside the 145-year-old historic waterway in a goal increase income to the Egyptian economy by expanding trade between Europe and Asia.

Egypt has suffered a severe blow to its economy since the 2011 revolution which ousted former President Hosni Mubarak. With the severe downturn in the tourism industry and a slowing of foreign investment, the bulk of the nation’s revenue now comes from the Suez, which earns Egypt approximately US $5 billion. Investors and Egyptians are hoping to establish a major international industrial and logistics trade hub and raise Egypt’s international profile. The country has, for years, had plans to develop 29,000 square miles for this endeavour. In January, Egypt invited 14 consortia to bid for project.

The new canal will run parallel to the existing canal, and span approximately 45 miles. The project is expected to cost $8 billion and create over one million jobs. Estimates suggest it will take five years to complete, although the Egyptian government has set a completion goal of three years. During a press conference in Ismailia, President Al-Sisi declared that the project would be completed within just one year, but it is unlikely that such a large project can be completed in this truncated timeline.

President Al Sisi has put the Egyptian Armed Forces in charge of the project, primarily citing security reasons. As many as twenty Egyptian firms are likely to be involved in development of the canal, but will work under military supervision. The canal has been targeted by militant groups in the Sinai on more than one occasion, including the firing of a missile at the Cosco Asia, a merchant vessel that was traversing the canal in September 2013. The group that claimed responsibility, Al Furqan Brigade, hoped to create fear in shipping companies, causing them to reroute away from the Suez Canal, and thereby weaken the Egyptian economy. The Egyptian military has since put in place increased security measures, including additional security troops and fencing off areas around the Canal Zone.

The Egyptian military is more than a national security force. The Egyptian military owns a minimum of 35 factories, where it produces a range of products including bottled water, food items, flat-screen televisions, refrigerators, cars and more. The military also owns a series of restaurants, football grounds, petrol stations, and a great deal of real estate. The Egyptian military has also been involved in joint ventures to build infrastructure and resorts. However, the business aspect of Egypt’s military is opaque; their budgets are secret, and their industrial investments are neither audited nor taxed. It is estimated by some that the Egyptian military holds a 40% stake in Egypt’s economy, however it is near impossible to verify. Sisi has stated the actual number is closer to 2%. Egypt’s military will likely be responsible for managing the first stage of the project, which will be the “dry digging” of the new canal.

In an additional effort to boost the nation’s slowing economy, Egypt is seeking US $1.5 billion in loans to repay debts owed to foreign oil companies operating in the nation. The move is another part of the scheme to revive the economy and gain interest in foreign investment. The government is avoiding borrowing money from the nation’s central bank in order to avoid putting strain on the national reserves. Simultaneously, Egypt is attempting to woo foreign oil investors into increase exploration and production. Current production rate for gas is approximately 5.1 billion cubic feet per day, and oil production is approximately 675,000 barrels of oil per day.

Egypt has been troubled by the decline in gas production in the face of the worst energy crisis in a generation. Later in August, the Egyptian government will seek bids to import gas to support the nearly 85,000,000 population. Much of the energy bills that Egypt accrues have been in the form of energy subsidies to the poor. However, shortly after Sisi’s election, those subsidies were slashed, spiking energy prices by over 70 percent.

In addition to the nation’s economic woes, Egypt is struggling to control a wave of violence that has hit since the ousting of President Mohamed Morsi in August of last year. Morsi’s removal sparked clashes between those supporting and opposing the Morsi’s organisation, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), as well as sectarian clashes between supposed MB supporters and Christians. On 5 August, sectarian clashes broke out in Minya, reportedly after news was released that Coptic Christians were planning to build a church. However it has been revealed that the clashes were actually ignited by a feud between rivalling Christian and Muslim families, and spread rapidly. Over a dozen people were arrested. Currently the situation is stable. Minya, with its high Coptic Christian population, has seen some of the worst sectarian violence since the ouster of Morsi. The court in Minya is also responsible for a series of mass death sentence punishments against Muslim Brotherhood members for clashes that occurred last year.

Egypt is also struggling to maintain national security as it is faced with threats on all of its land borders. To the west, Egypt has increased security and closed its borders with Libya as the threat of violence in their neighbouring nation threatens to spill over. To the south, Egypt is battling human trafficking that is filtering up from Eritrea and Sudan, the latter of which has been fighting an escalated war with recently separated South Sudan. To the east, the Egyptian border with Gaza has been closed after a breakdown of relation with Hamas in 2013, and in particular since the escalation of fighting between Palestine and Israel. Egypt is also targeting radicalised bases in the restive Sinai Peninsula, and attempting to protect the nation from home-grown radicalism that has grown through the chaos of building a new government in the nation.

ISIS and Iraq Update: 2 August, 2014

Note– Flight Pattern shifts around Iraq: Due to concerns that Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS^*) might possess surface-to-air missiles, and in light of the downing of flight MH17 in Ukraine, many airlines and air safety regulators have modified flight patterns around Iraq. The US Federal Aviation Administration has raised its minimum flight altitude over Iraq to 30,000 feet and requires planes taking from countries neighbouring Iraq to reach 30,000 feet before entering Iraqi airspace. These restrictions are only applicable to US-based airlines. In Europe, aviation safety regulators will issue non-binding guidance regarding flights in Iraqi airspace. Air France and Virgin Atlantic Airways have rerouted flights away from Iraqi airspace. British Airways will continue to fly over Iraq. Emirates Airline is reviewing the situation. The UN’s air safety group met on 29 July for an urgent review of information sharing regarding flight risk around conflict zones, and will identify methods for airlines to communicate any risks.

Key Points

• Rapid ground advances slowed significantly in July as ISIS fights to maintain control of captured territory. However, cells of the group are known to be active in Baghdad.
• ISIS has developed an administrative power centre in Mosul, Iraq.
• ISIS has used extreme and violent tactics in their bid for power, such as targeting “non-believers” including Christians, Sunni, Shi’a civilians, and destroying historic and holy sites.
• ISIS has access to heavy weapons systems but is unlikely to use them beyond the short to medium term.
• Neighbouring nations have developed plans for domestic protection and border security.
• In hopes of building a unity government, the Iraqi parliament has elected a new Speaker and President, and is in the process of electing a Prime Minister.
• Iraq has called upon the US and Russia to provide more military weaponry.
• As fighting has not advanced south, there has been no significant change in oil sector contingency planning.
• Companies in the banking sectors do not appear to be adversely impacted by ISIS, but have developed contingency plans in the event of emergency evacuations or a breakdown of the banking system.

Latest Incidents

17 July: The Iraqi Parliament elected Sunni politician Salim al-Jubouri as its speaker. This marks the first important steps toward building a national unity government.

20 July: ISIS burns an 1800 year old church to the ground in Mosul.

21 July: Iraqi forces reportedly withdraw from a skirmish with ISIL fighters at Camp Speicher, a key base in Tikrit. Early press reports indicated that ISIL intended to set up an administration in the city. Hours later, Iraqi Special Forces conducted counterattack operations, retaking control of the base.

21 July: ISIS militants forced nine Christian monks out of a 1,600 year old Christian monastery in northern Iraq. Peshmerga soldiers found the monks walking miles away from the monastery and moved them to safety.

23 July: ISIS claims responsibility for a suicide bombing in a Shi’a neighbourhood in Baghdad that killed 33 people and wounded 50. The Iraqi Council of Representatives postponed their sessions to elect a new president for 24 hours.

24 July: ISIS reportedly creates “Euphrates Province” which straddles both sides of the Syria and Iraq borders. The province is reportedly intended to erase the border between the two nations. Cities within the region include Albu Kamal and Hajin in Syria, and al-Qaim in Iraq.

24 July: ISIS denies claims that it is initiating Female Genital Mutilation (FGM) in women and girls ages 11-46.

24 July: Hours before a Parliament vote on the presidency, an attack on a convoy of prisoners near Baghdad left over 60 people dead. Later, two car bombs struck in central Baghdad killing almost two dozen as restaurants were filled with residents breaking their Ramadan fast.

24 July: Fouad Massoum, veteran liberal politician and senior member of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) is elected president of the Iraqi Republic. This fulfilled the second step toward developing a new unity government.

30 July: A car bomb in eastern Baghdad killed one civilian and injured nine. Later in the day, a second car bomb detonates in the Shiite enclave of Sadr City in Baghdad, killing 2 civilians and injuring 11.

30 July: Conflicting news reports emerge as to whether Prime Minister al-Maliki will run for a third term. A Member of Parliament reportedly said al-Maliki withdrew his candidacy for the post because of political pressure, however later in the day, a spokesman for the State of Law Coalition denied those claims, adding that al-Maliki remains committed to run for a third term.

1 August: The United Nations reports that 1,737 people, mostly civilians, were killed non-ISIS controlled parts of in Iraq in July. The number is down from 2,400 in June. The toll excludes casualties in the Anbar province that is held by ISIS.

Analysis of ISIS

On 23 July, Ed Royce, Chairman of the US House Foreign Affairs Committee stated, “Never has a terrorist organization itself controlled such a large, resource-rich safe haven as ISIS does today. Never has a terrorist organization possessed the heavy weaponry, cash and personnel that ISIS does today.” Since June, ISIS has held control of a large portion of Iraq and Syria, creating a corridor between the two nations. Despite their plans for continued and rapid ground advances, the group has slowed considerably as it develops an administrative base in Mosul. ISIS has amassed a great deal of wealth through donations, extortion, and the capture of money and resources, allowing them to attract recruits from around the world through targeted and flashy social media campaigns.

Income: ISIS has been called one of the wealthiest terror organisations in the world, and their hold on oil fields in Iraq and Syria allow them to produce up to 80,000 barrels of oil a day. Current global market prices for oil hover around US $100 a barrel, which could fetch $8 million per day. However on the black market, the price sinks to between $10 and $22, due to cuts taken by middlemen to transport the oil. ISIS has made up for this by using their own fleet of tankers, and is estimated to be profiting at a rate of $50 to $60 a barrel. While this amounts to millions of dollars a day, it is a temporary profit sector for two reasons: First, ISIS does not have the skilled tradesmen and technicians necessary to maintain the oil fields; and second, following new regulations, nations or groups caught violating sanctions against ISIS face the threat of United Nations action.

Apart from oil, ISIS also gains income through mafia-style “protection” insurance, extortion, enforcing local taxes, donations, and smuggling. In total, ISIS has an average monthly income of US $12 million.

Weaponry: Within the territories, ISIS seized a number of weapons caches which were abandoned by Iraqi soldiers. The group has control of a range of artillery spanning from BM-21, towed and self-propelled artillery to anti-aircraft cannons ZSU 23-4, as well as a number of armoured fighting vehicles, Humvees, and M1 Abrams main battle tanks. It remains unlikely ISIS will use heavier artillery, as it requires extensive maintenance, and is only useful in the hands of skilled fighters. Analysts still believe that heavy weaponry will be stripped for parts or traded for mortars, small arms and IED components, which are effective in the hands of both skilled and unskilled fighters.

Recruitment Efforts: On 31 July, ISIS released an eight-minute promotional video entitled “Join the Ranks”, which featured a number of Indonesian nationals urging Muslims in Indonesia to join the fight. In the video, a man calling himself “Abu Muhammad al-Indonesi” delivered an impassioned, sometimes angry speech, in which he states that it is an obligation mandated by Allah for Muslims to participate in this fight and pledge their allegiance. ISIS sees great potential in Indonesia as at least 56 Indonesians have joined the militant group. This latest promotional video comes after the release of similar videos featuring Muslims from Australia, Canada, Chile and Germany.

In late July, ISIS also published the first issue of their official state magazine, Dabiq. The magazine outlines the group’s direction, recruitment methods, political and military strategy, and tribal alliances. The magazine has been published in English as well as several European languages. Its purpose is multi-fold; first it intends to call Muslims to the new caliphate by detailing stories of success and support. Second, it aims to show the justification of their cause by enumerating the atrocities against the group while simultaneously displaying images of their own violence. Finally, the magazine is meant as a sort of educational tool to justify the existence and nature of the caliphate, and to underscore legitimacy and political and religious authority over all Muslims. This is achieved by defining a destiny for the group that is linked to apocalyptic literature. Even the name Dabiq refers to a city in Syria that is said to be a site of great fighting during Armageddon (Malahim). The magazine states, “One of the greatest battles between the Muslims and the crusaders will take place near Dabiq.” The magazine is not dissimilar to Inspire Magazine, the periodical issued by rival group Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). As there is an overt competition for recruits, it is not surprising that ISIS is using this platform to lure current members and potential recruits away from AQAP and into ISIS.

In addition to promotional videos, recruiters have been discovered internationally and online. In April, a 19 year-old woman from Colorado in the US was arrested as she attempted to fly to Syria to meet her online suitor, a Tunisian man who claimed to be a member of ISIS. The woman attended a military tactics and firearms training course with the US Army Explorers earlier in the year, with intentions to help ISIS fighters who shared her “view of Islam as requiring participation in violent jihad against any non-believers.”

Recruitment of Women: ISIS has two female battalions based in the northern Syrian city of Raqqah. The battalions are called “Al-Khansaa” and “Umm al-Rayan”. Recruits must be female, between the ages of 18 and 25, single, and can have no other jobs outside of ISIS. If they join, they receive a monthly salary of 25,000 Syrian liras, nearly US $170.

These all female battalions have a duty to “expose male activists who disguise in women’s clothing to avoid detention when stopping at the ISIS checkpoints,” after learning that men in opposition groups have dressed in burqas to pass through checkpoints easily. These all-female brigades set up checkpoints to search female passersby, as men cannot search women. It is also suspected, but unverified, that the battalions have a secondary role of enforcing the strict rules of the caliphate on women, including enforcing dress codes.

Expansion: On 1 July, Islamic State called for willing Muslims, particularly scholars, judges, doctors, engineers and people with military and administrative expertise, to move to the “Islamic State” and develop the new caliphate. The vast majority of the Muslim world has been dismissive of the caliphate, preferring to focus on Ramadan and the World Cup. With little support and a great deal of opposition, in the past month the group has made few efforts toward expansion, with the exception of certain oil fields in Syria. Rather, they are concentrating on maintaining control of currently held grounds and implementing an administration with an extremist interpretation of Sharia Law. While the group has slowed their ground offensive, it is known that there are cells of ISIS in Baghdad with the intention of causing violence and disruption in the city’s security. ISIS has claimed responsibility for several car bombings in Baghdad, mainly targeting Shi’a districts. ISIS has also committed a series of atrocities against Christians, and Shi’a and Sunni Muslims inside and outside of their control zone.

Violence and Religious Targeting: ISIS appears to be indiscriminate in its rampant targeting of what they consider “kafirs” (non-believers). The group has become known for mass murders, violent beheadings and crucifixions. ISIS has targeted Christians in Northern Iraqi cities, particularly in Mosul. Since capturing areas in the north, the group has imposed anti-Christian rule, including ordering Muslim employers to fire Christian workers. On 18 July, ISIS gave Christians in Mosul a 48 hour deadline to comply with their directive: Christians must either convert to Islam, pay tax, leave, or be killed. Homes belonging to Christians were marked with the Arabic letter noon ( ﻦ ), to stand for “Nazarene”. Christians in Mosul, who once numbered over 50,000, fled to a nearby town and the homes of Christian leaders were ransacked. Evacuated Christian properties have been reportedly seized and marked with signs reading: “This is the property of the Islamic State.”

The bulk of the Christian population fled to nearby Qaraqosh, leaving Mosul devoid of Christians for the first time in nearly 1600 years. Qaraqosh, a city approximately 20 miles south of Mosul, is protected by the Peshmerga, well-armed Kurdish fighters from the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan who seek to absorb Qaraqosh and surrounding villages.

Rather than fighting with the Peshmerga, ISIS has responded by blocking pipes that connect the town to the Tigris River, effectively cutting off the city’s water supply. The town has become reliant on rationed water being shipped in from Kurdish controlled areas, and residents pay US $10 every two days to refill their water tanks. NGOs have also erected water depots, but they are insufficient to supply the growing number of evacuees coping with the summer heat. In addition, Qaraqosh suffers hours-long electrical blackouts, and ISIS has placed an embargo against the city, preventing nearby towns from conducting trade with merchants in Qaraqosh. The situation has forced residents to drive to different cities in search of income.

On 20 July, ISIS burned an 1800 year old church to the ground. One day later, monks residing at the Mar Behnam monastery were evacuated by ISIS fighters. The monastery, run by the Syriac Catholic Church, is an important Christian pilgrimage site dating back to the 4th century.  The monks asked to save some of the monastery’s relics but were refused. The evacuated monks were picked up by Peshmerga fighters several miles from the monastery. It must be noted here that ISIS, who claim to be Sunni Muslims, evicted the Christians, who were taken in by Sunni Kurds.

Christians are not alone in facing discrimination by ISIS. Shi’a Muslims, as well as Yazidis (a sect linked to Zoroastrianism) are reportedly killed immediately upon identification. Reports indicate that this initial identification and differentiation between Shi’a and Sunni Muslims is based on four questions. ISIS members ask the person’s name, where they live, how they pray, and what music they listen to. These questions can help to identify, respectively and to some degree, whether they hail from a historically Shi’a family, if they live in a Shi’a neighbourhood, whether they use the Shia or Sunni prayer position (Sunni Muslim’s fold their hands or cross their arms in front of their stomachs; Shi’as leaving their arms extended, palms resting on their thighs), and whether their music, if religious, is of Sunni or Shi’a nature.

Sunni Muslims, the segment of the population that ISIS claims to represent, have been targeted as well; in June and July, ISIS targeted a number of Sunni imams and muftis in Iraq. Various tolls of targeted attacks on Sunni citizens in Iraq and Syria show that ISIS may have killed as many as 700 Sunni Muslims. Further, ISIS has demanded the allegiance of nearby Sunni militant groups, most of which are in direct opposition to ISIS. Several of these groups have refused to take this oath, which also requires the groups to hand over all weapons. The resultant clashes have led to a number of deadly battles in Syria and Iraq.

Inside ISIS controlled zones, residents are subjected to an extremely militant, loosely adapted version of Sharia law. On 19 June, ISIS tweeted images from a trial in which a Muslim woman was accused of adultery and then stoned to death. The photos did not show the woman, however they did show a gathering of male ISIS members in attendance to watch the event.

Most puzzling, however, is ISIS’ rampant destruction of Shrines that are sacred to Abrahamic religions (Judaism, Christianity, and Islam). On 9 July, a video attributed to ISIS was posted on YouTube showing an ancient tomb being destroyed. Iraqi government officials say it is “almost certainly” the tomb of Biblical prophet Jonah, who is also a prophet in the Jewish and Islamic faiths. The group has destroyed over 30 holy shrines for Sunni and Shi’a Muslims, as well as historically significant Christian and Abrahamic sites, causing international outrage. The combined actions indicate that ISIS, while claiming to be a religious group, is merely using the guise of religion to justify their atrocities and organized crime.

Pushback: ISIS is facing opposition from Syrian, Kurdish and Iraqi military fighters, as well as anti-extremist civilian militias, sectarian militias, rival militias, and a growing number of tribes in the regions that once supported their activities. The group, which is estimated to number at 10,000 members, has been stretched thin. To accommodate this, the group is likely to shift their strategy from brute force to guerrilla tactics in order to gain territory.

Internationally, Muslims continue to express outrage at the caliphate, calling it “heretical”, “reckless” and a “mockery of Islam”. Islamic scholars and political leaders have accused ISIS of distorting the concept of the caliphate for its own purposes. In a speech on 1 August, Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah castigated militants who are “killing innocent people and mutilating their bodies in contravention of Islamic teachings.” The King then called upon regional leaders and religious scholars to prevent Islam from being hijacked by militants. In the first issue of Dabiq, ISIS addresses why Saudi Arabia’s concerns that they will be the next target are well-founded. In June, Saudi Arabia moved 30,000 troops to their borders to protect the kingdom. Likewise, Jordan has reinforced troops along its border. Hamas, which ISIS calls “too moderate”, has called ISIS is a direct challenge to their regime. King Abdullah’s sentiments have been praised by former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri; particularly as the Syrian War has already deeply impacted Lebanon.

Even in online radical militant forums, members are opposed to the rampant destruction and violence conducted by ISIS. One writer, calling himself Faruq al-Iraq, wrote, “You claim to follow in the path of the Prophet (Mohammed), but you are the first to stray from his word,” adding that there was no theological justification for destroying the shrines. This comment has been echoed by many other online posts from people who, only weeks earlier, had fully endorsed the caliphate.

Domestically, civil militias are taking up the posts of combating ISIS. The Sunni majority in the controlled region initially welcomed ISIS, believing they would put an end to sectarian policing. However that opinion soured quickly as ISIS conducted atrocities against the residents and destroyed historic holy sites, churches and mosques in a show of force. In Mosul, a group of students, civil servants, and merchants have formed a militia called Kataeb al-Mosul (The Mosul Brigades). In the past week, Kataeb al-Mosul has reportedly killed five ISIS militants, and intends to conduct more operations. Residents have been told “not to cooperate with Daash [Arabic word for ISIS] in any way.”

Analysis

ISIS has been outspoken about plans continue to absorb additional ground in the region, including Iraq’s capital city, Baghdad. While advances toward the capital were halted in July, their reach has stretched through to areas outside of its control. ISIS has claimed responsibility for a number of bombings in Baghdad, particularly in Shi’a dominated areas. This suggests that while they do not currently have the capability to both hold their controlled territory and continue their advance, they intend to take measures to weaken the security in Baghdad and shake the government as it seeks to establish new leadership.

ISIS has turned Mosul into an ersatz power centre in direct opposition to Baghdad. In doing so, Iraq is effectively broken into three separate states: Kurdish controlled territories on Iraq’s northwest borders with Turkey and Iran, ISIS controlled zones in the northeast and to the Syrian border, and government-controlled Iraq to the south, which is struggling with sectarian violence. This breakup, while unofficial, is not unexpected. The US government estimated as early as 2003 that Iraq could break into three distinct states with differing and feuding religious and ethnic factors, and result in a failed state which could become a safe haven for terrorism. There is a growing sense that if the country does not break into three states, Baghdad will still not be able to control the entire nation for some time; it is speculated that a decentralized Iraqi government is the most likely way forward.

The strongest defence Iraq has from becoming a failed state is a united federal government system that can impose a sense of national unity and a willingness to combat ISIS regardless of sectarian identities. To this end, the incoming parliament selected a new speaker, moderate Sunni Salim al-Jubouri, on 17 July. A week later, moderate Kurdish politician Fouad Massoum was named the new president of Iraq. Since 2003, the position of Iraqi President has always been a Kurd; the Speaker of Parliament has been Sunni, and the Prime Minister a Shi’a.

The selection of prime minister is likely to be the most contentious. Current Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki has been internationally criticised for pro-Shi’a sectarian policies, including empowering Shi’a militias to target Sunni Muslims at will. It is in this environment that the ISIS has thrived, manipulating the emotions of Sunni citizens and tribal groups to grow their influence and control. Despite conflicting reports, Maliki has stated that he intends to run for a third term as Prime Minister. His political party, State of Law Coalition, won the largest bloc of seats in parliament, and therefore has the right to form the government. The Prime Minister, in turn, has the right to assemble his Cabinet. Al-Maliki has brazenly insisted he will remain at the helm, and has threatened that his cabinet will not include “rival” Kurds or Sunni Arabs.

The Kurds, meanwhile, seek to create an autonomous government, yet their involvement in Iraq’s central government is crucial in both developing a united front against ISIS and keeping Iraq from devolving into a failed state. However, the Kurds are also aware that they have the best chance for survival if they break away from Iraq. The Peshmerga (Kurdish armed forces) have stepped up to assist the Christian population that was evacuated in Mosul in late July, and has used the opportunity to put “protections” around villages where Christians have retreated, in a de facto annexation of Iraqi land. Likewise, the Kurds have protected Muslims and Arabs in lands that serve as corridors between disconnected areas within Kurdish control.

Iraqi Defence

On 21 July, the Iraqi ambassador to the US called on the Americans to launch “precision air attacks” on territories held by ISIS. H.E. Lukman Faily said that “the US should offer air support targeting terrorist camps and supply convoys in remote areas,” adding that the strikes would protect Iraq from a further terrorist influx, particularly through the Iraq/Syria corridor which has been created by ISIS.

Iraq is awaiting a shipment of US 24 Apache helicopters and 36 F-16 fighter planes that have been delayed through bureaucratic controls associated with foreign military sales. The F-16 shipment is expected to arrive in the autumn, after which time Iraqi pilots will need to be trained to operate the machinery. There is no scheduled date for the Apache helicopters. Speaking on the delays, Faily said they had an “adverse impact” on Iraq, adding that Washington’s slow pace “also has created questions for us back home” about Washington’s commitment to Iraq.

Currently, there are approximately 200 US military advisers serving in two operations centres in Iraq, and US warplanes are conducting approximately 50 surveillance flights per day in Iraqi airspace. While the US is reluctant to conduct military operations in Iraq, on 31 July, the United States announced plans to sell 5,000 Hellfire missiles to Iraq in a $700 million deal, pending Congressional approval. If passed, which is expected, it will be the largest sale of lethal missiles to Iraq. The sale will include equipment, parts, training and logistical support. The AGM-114K/N/R can be fired from AC-208 Cessna Caravan planes and other aircraft. Prior to the deal, the US has shipped approximately 780 Hellfire missiles to Iraq since July.

Meanwhile, Russia shipped Sukhoi-25 fighter jets in June, and reports indicate that the Iraqi government has signed a US $1 billion deal with Russia for the sale of at least two battalions of Grad rocket launchers, mortars, anti-tank missiles and other weaponry. The government is in ongoing talks to purchase an additional ten Sukhoi 27-30 fighter jets.

Lukman Faily stated that Iran has offered military assistance, which the Iraqi government has reportedly declined. However, reliable Arabic media sources suggest that as many as 2,000 Iranian troops are operating inside Iraq. This includes members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, who are believed to be organising Shi’a militias to fight ISIL.

Kurdish Defence: The Kurdistan Regional Government has also asked the US to supply them with sophisticated weaponry to reinforce the Peshmerga as they attempt to deal with the ISIS threat. They are seeking tanks, sniper equipment, armoured personnel carriers, artillery and ammunition, as well as helmets, body armour, fuel trucks and ambulances. The US has been wary of providing such weaponry for fear that the arms could be used in the Kurdish fight to break away from Iraq.  The Kurds are fighting ISIS on the Syrian and Iraqi borders, but with the intention of protecting the areas which they consider as Kurdish. They have not fought ISIS in cities beyond their borders, but in some instances have “annexed” areas into their protection. In some cities, for example Hasika in Syria, regional armies have handed some parts of the land to the Kurds in order to protect area, believing the Kurds to be the only group that can push back the ISIS militants. The Peshmerga may also operate in areas that serve as land bridges between Kurdish controlled territories which are not connected to one another. Currently, the battle between Kurds and ISIS is for control of land and resources, particularly oil facilities. On 1 August, Peshmerga forces clashed with ISIS fighters in Zumar, on Iraq’s border with Syria. ISIS fighters stormed an oil installation in the town and captured six bunkers from the oil police. Later in the day, the Peshmerga forces conducted a surprise counter-attack, regaining the installation and expelling ISIS militants from the region.

Summary

Economically, ISIS is insolvent. Despite the wealth and resources available to ISIS, they appear to be struggling in their dual role as fighters and administrators. According to Michael Knights, a Middle East expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, ISIS has “gone from being the world’s richest terrorist organization to the world’s poorest state.” The $12 million income that ISIS pulls in every month is a decent sum for a terrorist organisation, but grossly insufficient to support a state.

The oil flow that ISIS currently relies on for nearly 40% of its monthly income is dependent on finding and keeping technicians with the capability to maintain the oil fields that the group has captured, and according to several reports, the turnover rate is high. In addition, a large portion of the money that comes from extortion and taxes is beginning to dry out. The money ISIS was extorting from public servants disappeared after Baghdad froze public salaries in the region. In fact, ISIS has become responsible for providing a salary to the same public servants it once extorted, in addition to paying for fighters, paying for support from tribal leaders, and providing basic public services, such as trash removal, electricity, water supplies, and other civil requirements normally controlled by a central government. The group’s 80,000 barrels a day and $12 million monthly income suddenly becomes paltry, particularly when compared to Iraq’s 3 million barrels a day (from southern Iraq) and monthly income of $10 billion. Because ISIS has made enemies of like-minded organisations, they cannot ask for support from other radical groups.

ISIS has also weakened itself in a way that it may not have expected. In destroying historic shrines and holy sites, they made enemies in every sector of the nation. In July, ISIS militants announced they would target the Hadba, a minaret dating back to the 12th century that leans like the Tower of Pisa. The Hadba is a national icon which features on Iraqi currency. Residents in and near Mosul rushed to the site to form a human chain around the minaret, and forced ISIS to back down. It is possible that by destroying these sites, ISIS has done what no government could do since the downfall of Saddam Hussein: create a sense of national unity.

The continued destruction of historic and holy sites could be a bridge too far, sparking the dual reactions of dissuading even the most radicalised among militants from joining ISIS, while simultaneously converting Iraqi fear into anger, generating a the very nationalism that that has prevented Iraqis from working together to dismantle ISIS.

Oil and Banking Sector Impacts

With the slowing of ground advances by ISIS, there have not been any significant changes to the oil sector. Approximately 75% of Iraq’s oil is in the Shi’a dominated south. There have been fears that ISIS will attempt to advance south to gain control of those resources, but indicators suggest that a brute force siege is unlikely. Southern Iraqi oil facilities are not under immediate threat; however oil companies in the region remain on high alert with 100,000 Iraqi police with protecting oil facilities.

Oil battles have mainly occurred between Baghdad and the Kurdish regional government. In mid July, the Peshmerga expanded their area of control into oil-rich Kirkuk, where they seized two key facilities located just outside the city. The Kurdish regional government has begun pumping oil from the Kirkuk field into their pipelines to sell to Turkey. The Kurds claim that since Baghdad has not met its commitment to financially support the regional government, they are left with no choice but to sell their own oil. Meanwhile, Baghdad calls the move illegal.

In the banking sector, no changes have occurred to adversely impact banking security in the region. International banking companies have developed contingency plans to relocate operations and protect client assets in the event of a breakdown in the banking system, but otherwise, regional banks continue business as usual. Foreign banks are still advising multinational corporate clients to reduce the amount of cash they keep in Iraq to a minimum.