Tag Archives: Syria

Another Wave of Challenges for Greece

Over the past several years, Greece has been increasingly strained by the tens of thousands of migrants reaching its shores. Perhaps more than ever before, Greece could potentially be close to the breaking point. Starting in Sweden and Denmark, governments across Europe have imposed new border restrictions, inadvertently creating a chain-reaction. In mid and late-January, Germany, Austria, Slovenia, Croatia and Serbia announced new restrictions on migrants. Several governments, including Austria, are developing plans to cap the total number of migrants. Almost all the countries recently imposing border restrictions are focusing on original country of origin. The asylum process will increasingly prioritize migrants from conflict areas, particularly Syria. Over this past fall and winter, Macedonia has repeatedly closed important crossings at the Greek border with no warning. One closure on 21 January, for example, resulted in a backlog that took multiple days to clear. When such closures occur, many migrants are left without adequate food or shelter, creating a stressful situation that often results in violence.

The Wall Street Journal has quoted a confidential Bank of Greece report, which estimates the Greek Government could spend 600 million Euros in 2016 assisting migrants. The migrant-related costs could potentially reach 0.3% of Greece’s Gross Domestic Product. The operation of migrant reception centres could constitute 35% of the total cost, followed by search and rescue efforts 26%. Since the beginning of January, the UNHCR has reported that over 74,000 migrants have reached Greece alone. Over the course of 2015, over 821,000 migrants reached Greece, the vast majority doing so in small boats. Greek officials and international observers are expressing concerns that Greece will have to support tens of thousands more migrants in 2016 if border restrictions further north remain in effect. The European Agenda on Migration had been intended to ease the migrant-related pressures faced by the Italian and Greek governments. However, the European Commission announced on 10 February that only 218 migrants had been relocated from Greece. Only 15 European Member-States agreed to participate, providing a total of 1081 places (far below the 66,400 target).

As spring starts to approach, the total number of migrants attempting to reach Europe is anticipated to increase once again. As the European Union struggles to develop a coordinated approach, Greece will remain at the forefront of the migration crisis. Even with European Union and NATO support, it may well be unable to sustain tens of thousands more migrants, especially if many of them cannot travel further into Europe.

From Aleppo to Safety: Turkish Dilemma

Thousands of Syrians, mostly women and children, remain stuck at Turkish borders after fleeing offensive in Aleppo. The U.N. refugee agency, UNHCR, on the 9^th of February 2016 called on Turkey to admit all civilians who are fleeing danger and seeking international protection. Tens of thousands of Syrians escaped intense air strikes in the northern province of Aleppo. Recent months have been dominated by intensive Russian air strikes and attacks on civilians have become a near-everyday occurrence. At least 500 reported killed in the province this month.

Turkey has already taken in more than 2.5 million Syrian refugees over the past five years hosting the largest number of refugees in the world. Its borders are considered the gateway to safety, leaving many stranded across them. The Turkish government has recently expressed frustration over the worsening migrant crisis saying that it has now reached the end of its “capacity to absorb”. Turkey applies strict controls on admission of refugees while maintaining an open door policy for those fleeing immediate harm to their lives.

The United Nations’ refugee agency has called on Turkey to open the border to tens of thousands of Syrian refugees fleeing a government offensive in Aleppo province, who are stranded near the Bab al-Salameh crossing. According to UN officials half of all Syrians have been forced to leave their homes, often multiple times, making Syria the largest displacement crisis globally. More than a quarter million Syrians lost their lives since the onset of the crisis in 2011. Protests escalated into civil war and the armed rebellion led to the rise of Islamists and jihadists, the so-called Islamic State, whose brutal tactics caused global outrage.

Today UK, U.S and Russia are leading air strikes in order to regain rebel parts of the country. Situation is worsening following the intensified Russian air operation in the province of Aleppo, an area divided between government and rebel control for years. Moreover according to ICRC the harshening of winter is pushing people’s resilience to the limits.

The United Nation Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs from March 2012 until February 2016 registered a total of 13.5M Syrians in need of humanitarian assistance; 4.6M fled the country and 6.6M have been displaced within the borders due to violence. Internally displaced the population struggles to survive and they are chasing after charities. The displacement of refugees is across several neighbour countries and Europe.

Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu attended the Informal Meeting of EU Ministers of Foreign Affairs on the 6^th of February 2016. The prime minister, Numan Kurtulmus envisaged a further 600,000 refugees at the borders raising criticism on the Russian tactics. European member states requested immediate steps from Ankara to improve the situation for refugees in Turkey deploying without delay the €3 billion pledged by the European Union.

Turkey is currently under pressure to allow in 30,000 Syrian refugees stranded on its border. Migrants have inflicted a “huge strain” on the country’s economy, and called on the international community to assist Ankara in handling the burgeoning crisis. The main route from the north into Aleppo has been cut off and humanitarian aid cannot be efficiently delivered. The current situation is leading to a severe geopolitical turmoil.

Turkey is facing multiple problems and an internal division. The Russian power play in Syria vanished Turkish hopes for instituting a no-fly zone on the other side of the Syrian border and as Syria burns, Turkey’s Kurdish problem is getting worse. There is an increasing concern that the PYD’s success in Syria will dangerously strengthen the PKK in its fight against Turkey.

The Assad regime received support on the ground by the Iranian militias and the intensified Russian aerial bombardment led the United States to lose control over the entire operation. Within the next weeks the Assad’s bombing campaign will continue costing the lives of many other civilians.

The likelihood of Aleppo becoming the “Sarajevo” of Syria is increasing on a daily basis.

Israeli Defense Minister Accuses Turkey of Purchasing IS Oil

Israel’s defense minister has accused Turkey of purchasing oil from the so-called Islamic State (IS) group, thereby funding the militants’ activities.

Speaking in Athens, Greece, Moshe Yaalon disclosed that IS had “enjoyed Turkish money for oil for a very, very long period of time.” Speaking to reporters after a meeting with his Greek counterpart, Mr Yaalon further disclosed that “its up to Turkey, the Turkish government, the Turkish leadership, to decide whether they want to be part of any kind of cooperation to fight terrorism,” adding, “this is not the case so far. As you know, Daesh (Islamic State) enjoyed Turkish money for oil for a very, very long period of time. I hope that it will be ended.” Mr Yaalon also alleged that Turkey had “permitted jihadists to move from Europe to Syria and Iraq and and back.”

Turkey has denied allowing IS smuggling. Recently, the United States also rejected Russian claims that Turkish government officials were in league with the militants. While last month, US State Department officials rejected Russian allegations of Turkish government involvement, a state department spokesman did disclose that IS oil was being smuggled into Turkey via middlemen.

Efforts by Israel and Turkey to repair damaged ties already hit a set back earlier this month over demands for compensation for the deaths of ten Turkish activists on a ship that was carrying pro-Palestinian activists in 2010. They were killed in clashes with Israeli commandos who intercepted a flotilla that was trying to break Israel’s blockade on Gaza. In December, senior Israeli and Turkish officials met in a bid to try to repair relations, raising hopes of progress in negotiations to import Israeli natural gas.

IS has captured swathes of territory in Syria and Iraq, which includes operating oil fields that are now under the militant group’s control.

Latest Report Indicates More Journalist Hostages but Fewer Imprisoned in 2015

In its annual report, which was published on 15 December, media rights group Reporters Without Borders (RSF) disclosed that while fewer journalists were imprisoned this year, the number held hostage increased, noting that China and Egypt were named the worst nations for jailing media workers.

According to the RSF, the number of journalists put in prison fell fourteen percent in 2015 from last year. Furthermore, fifty-four professional journalists were held hostage in 2015, an increase of 35 percent from the last year. The reports points to Syria as the country with the highest number of reporters in the hands of extremist or criminal groups at 26. The report also indicates that the so-called Islamic State (IS) group alone holds eighteen journalists, largely in Syria and neighbouring Iraq.

The report also described China as “the world’s biggest prison for journalists,” followed by Egypt, adding that Iran and Eritrea were also condemned for jailing members of the press.

RSF secretary-general Christophe Deloire noted that “a full-blown hostage industry has developed in certain conflict zones.” He highlighted Yemen as being the newest problem country for reporters, with thirty-three journalists kidnapped by Houthi militias and al-Qaeda militants in 2015, compared with just two in the previous year. According to Deloire, “we are very alarmed by the increase in the number of reporters held hostage in 2015. The phenomenon is above all linked to the big surge in abductions of journalists in Yemen.”

Meanwhile lawless Libya had the largest number of journalists reported missing this year. With eight members of the press unaccounted for, the RSF noted that the political climate “makes it harder to conduct investigations to locate missing journalists.”

Questions Surface About Whether Turkey Really Gets Its Oil from IS

In early December, Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested that the decision by Turkey to shoot down a Russian military aircraft in late November was “dictated by the desire to protect the oil supply lines to Turkish territory.” His remarks, which occurred at a news conference on 1 December, effectively implied that the Turkish government was not only complicit in the smuggling of oil produced in areas of Syria that are controlled by the so-called Islamic State (IS) group, but that it was also so heavily committed to this trade that it was willing to provoke an international crisis in a bid to protect it.

While it is doubtful whether President Putin genuinely believes this accusation, it has raised the issue of the possible dealings between Turkish government agencies and IS. Furthermore, by putting forth such an accusation, President Putin has the chance to gain propaganda points in his tussle with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and in some ways, it may legitimize recent Russian attacks on targets in parts of Syria that are held by non-IS rebel forces backed by Turkey. Amongst these attacks were the destruction of a large bakery built by the Turkish IHH Humanitarian Relief Foundation.

While the ongoing Syrian conflict has given rise to an extensive war economy, in which deals are struck between a number of partners, that include groups that are fighting each other on the battlefield, the smuggling of oil and petroleum products from Syria into neighbouring Turkey has been going on for decades, as traders and security officials have cashed in on the difference in prices that have been created by the heavy subsidies in Syria.

However with the ongoing civil war in Syria, the trade of oil and petroleum products has vastly evolved and in 2014, it saw IS take over much of the production of crude and refining business along the Euphrates river valley. This effectively represented about one-third of the country’s pre-conflict oil capacity, with most of the remainder under Kurdish control.

While there are many steps before oil produced under IS control reaches an end-user, it is highly likely that Turkish business people, customs officials and intelligence agents are amongst the people implicated. However it must be noted that the scale of the entire trade is small compared with Turkey’s own energy economy, in which Russia plays a dominant role. Furthermore, most of the participants are within Syria.

According to widely reported estimates, in mid-2015, oil fields under the control of IS produced between 30,000 and 40,000 barrels per day. Sources have disclosed that the supply chain entailed IS selling crude to traders, who would then transport it to small refineries that were set up in IS-controlled areas. The petrol and diesel produced in these refineries was then sold across Syria and Iraq, while any surplus was smuggled across the border, mainly to Turkey. While the quality of these products was poor, many buyers, particularly those in rebel-controlled areas, had little other option and typically paid a heavy premium over international prices. While IS was able to profit from the well-head sales, as well as gain from taxes along the supply chain, the profitability of the Syrian illicit oil trade was hit by the collapse in world oil prices in October 2014.

Oil purchased at the well-head for US $20 – 25 per barrel in mid-October could end up in Turkey being sold at below the world market price of over US $100/barrel, effectively yielding health profits to everyone involved. For a trader to make a profit selling bad quality Syrian products in Turkey now the well-head price would have to be much lower, and this would not necessarily make commercial sense for IS.

Since mid October-2014, the IS oil business has been further hit as US and French jets have started to target well-head facilities and tanker trucks for the first time. Furthermore, Kurdish and local Arab rebels have also seized an oil field from IS in the southern province of Hassakeh.

Turkey relies almost entirely on imports for its total oil consumption, which is about 720,000 barrels per day. A large number of those imports come from Russia. In 2014, Russia also supplied 27 billion cubic metres of natural gas to Turkey, effectively representing 56% of its total consumption. Russia was also Turkey’s largest source of imports, supplying goods worth US $2.3 billion, or more than 10% of Turkey’s total imports.