G7 Warns Russia on “Annexing” Crimea

On Wednesday, days ahead of a planned referendum, leaders of the G7 group of nations called on Russia to stop its efforts to “annex” Ukraine’s Crimea region, stating that if Russia takes such a step, they would “take further action, individually and collectively.”  The G7 leaders also indicated that they would not recognize the results of a referendum in Crimea, which will be held this weekend, to decide on whether to split from Ukraine and join Russia.  Meanwhile, Ukraine’s national security chief has warned of a major Russian military build-up on Ukraine’s borders.

The European Union (EU), along with the Group of Seven (G7) industrial nations, which includes Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States, urged Russia to “cease all efforts to change the status of Crimea.”  A statement released by the White House indicated, “in addition to its impact on the unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, the annexation of Crimea could have grave implications for the legal order that protects unity and sovereignty of all states.”  According to officials in the US, Sunday’s referendum has “no legal effect” as it is in “direct violation” of Ukraine’s constitution.  Officials added “given the lack of adequate preparation and the intimidating presence of Russian troops, it would also be a deeply flawed process which would have no moral force.”

The G7 leaders have repeated their calls for Russia to de-escalate the crisis by withdrawing its troops from Crimea, to talk directly with Kiev and to use international mediators in order to “address any legitimate concerns it may have.”  Meanwhile European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso indicated that he hoped EU countries would keep their “very united and firm position because we don’t want to see, one century after the First World War, exactly the same kind of behaviour of countries annexing other countries.”

Other European leaders have also weighed in on the on going crisis.  Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has stated that it may be time for the EU “to consider the possibility of having second phase sanctions” against Russia.  During a joint news conference with Mr Tusk, German Chancellor Angela Merkel indicated that the EU could sign the “political part” of a long-awaited agreement on closer ties with Ukraine later this month.  In a further public indication of Western support for Ukraine’s new leadership, US President Barack Obama is set to meet with interim Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk later in Washington.

Despite the looming referendum, diplomatic efforts with Russia are continuing.  US Secretary of State John Kerry has stated that he will travel to London to hold talks with Minister Sergei Lavron on Friday.  According to the Kerry, he will present him “with a series of options” for resolving the crisis.  France’s President Francois Hollande has also spoken by telephone with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, indicating that both agreed to “continue the discussion” on resolving the crisis.   Despite Russia indicating that it may want to continue diplomatic discussions with the West, troop movements in Crimea demonstrate the Russia is unlikely to back down despite threats of sanctions.

Ukraine’s national security chief Andriy Parubiy indicated Wednesday that Moscow had not withdrawn its troops after carrying out military exercises near Ukraine’s eastern and southern frontiers last month.  He further noted that the Russian army “is only two to three hours” from Kiev, adding that Ukraine’s “units are positioned to repel attacks from any direction.”  Sources have indicated that Russian troops have been seen massing on Ukraine’s eastern and southern borders, with Ukrainian officials describing the situation as “critical.”  He has accused Moscow of sending “subversive agents” into those areas to try to create a pre-text to deploy troops in the same way it has done in Crimea.   Mr Parubiy has also indicated that Kiev’s parliament will vote on Thursday to establish a National Guard of 20,000 people, recruited from activists involved in the recent pro-Western protests as well as former military academies, in order to strengthen Ukraine’s defences.  He indicated that the National Guard would be deployed to “protect state borders, general security and prevent ‘terrorist activities.’”

Crisis Timeline:

• 21 November 2013 – President Victor Yanukovych abandons deal on closer ties with the EU in favour of closer co-operation with Russia
• December 2013 – Pro-EU protesters occupy Kiev city hall and Independence Square.
• 20 February 2014 – At least 88 people are killed in 48 hours of bloodshed in Kiev.
• 21 February 2014 – President Yanukovych signs compromise deal with opposition leaders.
• 22 February 2014 – President Yanukovych flees Kiev.  Parliament votes to remove him and sets presidential elections for 25 May.
• 27 – 28 February 2014 – Pro-Russian gunmen seize key buildings in Crimean capital Simeferopol
• 1 March 2014 – Russian parliament approves President Vladimir Putin’s request to use Russian forces in Ukraine.
• 6 March 2014 – Crimea’s parliament asks to join Russia and sets a referendum for 16 March.

Tagged as: Barak Obama, Britain, Canada, Crimea, EU, European Union, France, G7, Germany, Italy, Japan, Kiev, Moscow, Russia, Ukraine, United States, White House

Ahead of a Referendum, Ukraine’s Crimea Votes for Full Independence

On Tuesday, Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula voted for full independence from Ukraine ahead of a referendum to join Russia.  Meanwhile, France has threatened sanctions against Moscow, which could be implemented as early as this week.

Yanukovych Remains Defiant 

The latest escalation, in what has developed into Europe’s worst crisis in decades, came moments after ousted pro-Kremlin leader Victor Yanukovych defiantly vowed to return to Kiev from Russia, declaring that he was still the leader of the former Soviet country.  Speaking to reporters in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, Yanukovych, in what is his first public appearance since February 28, stated “I remain not just the sole legitimate president of Ukraine but also commander-in-chief,” adding “as soon as the circumstances allow – and I am sure there is not long to wait – I will without doubt return to Kiev.”

In light of the upcoming referendum, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius warned that if Moscow failed to respond to Western proposals on the standoff, sanctions against Russia could come as early as this week.  On Tuesday, Western officials are also expected to meet in London in order to finalize a list of Russian officials who may face asset freezes and travel restrictions over their role in endangering the sovereignty of Europe’s largest state.

Independence and Referendum

On Tuesday, Crimea’s parliamentary assembly took another dramatic step by issuing a declaration proclaiming the region’s full independence from Kiev rule.  The body had earlier voted to actually join Russia, with the latest move appearing to be primarily aimed at creating a legal framework for becoming a part of Russia as a sovereign state.

Crimea has been a tinderbox since Russian forces seized control of the Black Sea peninsula, which has been home to its Black Sea Fleet since the 18^th century, with help of Kremlin-backed militias days after Yanukovych fled Ukraine last month in response to three months of deadly unrest.  The strategic region’s self-declared rulers are recruiting volunteers to fight Ukrainian soldiers while Russia’s parliament on Tuesday prepared legislation that would simplify the Kremlin’s annexation of Crimea after Sunday’s vote.  However the pro-European leaders in Kiev have rejected the referendum and are appealing to Western powers for both diplomatic backing and pressure on Moscow to release its troops stronghold on the rugged peninsula of two million people.

NATO Launches Surveillance

Meanwhile NATO announced Monday that it will deploy AWACS reconnaissance aircraft, which will overfly Poland and Romania, as part of alliance efforts to monitor the crisis in Ukraine.  The Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) will fly missions from their home base in Geilenkirchen, Germany, where seventeen are housed, and from Waddington in Britain.  The AWACS aircraft are one of the most sophisticated command and control vehicles in the NATO armoury, capable of monitoring huge swathes of airspace, with diplomatic sources indicating that the AWACS were routinely deployed and on that count, there was nothing unusual in their use in this case.    However a diplomatic source has indicated that it is unusual that the deployment has been announced publicly.

According to a NATO official, the flights “will enhance the Alliance’s situational awareness,” adding “all AWACS reconnaissance flights will take place solely over Alliance territory.”  The official also noted “this decision is an appropriate and responsible action in line with NATO’s decision to intensify our on-going assessment of the implications of this crisis for Alliance security.”  Flying over Poland and Romania the AWACS planes should be able to see far into Ukraine’s airspace.

As the Ukraine crisis has deepened, with Russian intervention on the Crimean peninsula, former Soviet satellites in Eastern Europe have become increasingly nervous at President Vladimir Putin’s apparent willingness to up the ante.  The situation risks becoming more difficult if Crimea, which is now controlled by pro-Russian leaders, votes in a March 16 referendum to break all links with Kiev and become a part of Russia.  Poland and the Baltic states especially have taken a hard line as events have unfolded and last week, Warsaw called for urgent consultations with its NATO allies on the situation.  In response to Putin’s move into Crimea, which is home to a large Russian-speaking population and the Black Sea fleet, the US is sending a dozen F-16 fighter jets and 300 service personnel to Poland as part of a training exercise.  Last week, Washington also deployed six additional F-15 fighter jets to step up NATO air patrols over the Baltic states.

Top Diplomats Meet in Paris to find Solution To Ukrainian Crisis

As top diplomats are seeking to find a solution to the crisis in Ukraine as they meet in Paris, France to hold high-level talks with both parties, Russia announced on Wednesday that it could not order “self defence” forces in Ukraine’s Crimea region back to their bases.  With the crisis in Ukraine an on-going matter, Russia and the West are locked in the most serious confrontation since the conclusion of the Cold War.

Meeting in Paris 

Russia’s Foreign Minister Serge Lavrov has confirmed that he will hold talks with his counterpart from the United States, along with key European Union states, in order to try and resolve the crisis in Ukraine.

Mr Lavrov will meet on Wednesday with US Secretary of State John Kerry and count parts from the United Kingdom, Germany and France on the side-lines of a long-planned conference on Lebanon which will be held in Paris.  Speaking before meeting with US Secretary of State John Kerry, and other Western ministers, Russian Foreign Minster Sergei Lavrov repeated Moscow’s assertion that the troops that have seized control of the Black Sea peninsula are not under Russian command.  Asked whether Moscow would order forces in Crimea back to their bases, the Russian Minister indicated that “if you mean the self-defence units created by the inhabitants of Crimea, we give them no orders, they take no order from us,” adding “as for the military personnel of the Black Sea Fleet, they are in their deployment sites.  Yes, additional vigilance measures were taken to safeguard the sites….We will do everything not to allow any bloodshed.”

Although the gathering in Paris is seen as a chance to test the waters for a dialogue about Ukraine, UK Foreign Secretary William Hague has indicated that the Russians have already failed to appear at one meeting with Ukrainian officials in Paris and that he is “not optimistic” that any further progress will be achieved.  In reference to a threat of sanctions by the US and the EU, Hague indicated that “if we cannot make progress on that course there will be costs and consequences.”   Russia did not attend a meeting with Kerry, Hague and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Deshchytsia of the so-called Budapest group created to assure Ukraine’s security after it abandoned nuclear weapons in 1994.  However both Kerry and Hague have indicated that they will try to bring the Russian and Ukrainian minister together.

NATO and Russia are also due to hold parallel talks in Brussels amidst concerns that a standoff between Russian and Ukrainian forces in Crimea could still spark violence, or that Moscow could also intervene in the Russian-speaking eastern region of Ukraine.

The West is pushing for Russia to return troops to their barracks, to accept international monitors in Crimea and Ukraine and to negotiate a solution to the crisis through a “contact group,” which will most likely be under the auspices of a pan-European security body.  Officials from France have also indicated that European Union leaders meeting in Brussels on Thursday could also decide to place sanctions against Russia if there is no “de-escalation” by then.

Last year, under great pressure from Russia, Ukraine pulled out of a trade deal with the EU.  This move effectively sparked months of protests in Kiev and on 22 February 2014, Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovich, a Russian ally, was ousted from power.  Russia currently occupies Crimea, where it’s Black Sea Fleet is based, a move which has raised international tensions and provoked sharp falls in financial markets

Understanding Events in Ukraine

What started as a domestic political and economic dispute in November 2013 has escalated into an event with international implications. Upheaval in Ukraine began in November when pro-Russian president Victor Yanukovych’s government decided to abandon closer ties with the EU in favour of Russia (see timeline below). Protests against this move swelled, culminating in last week’s decision by Ukraine’s parliament to foribly eject former pro-Russian President Victor Yanukovych and to install a coalition government. Moscow has not recognised the interim government which took power on 26 February.

In fact, Since last week, Russian troops have been consolidating their hold on Crimea, home to Russia’s naval base on the  Black Sea. On Friday, Putin’s government authorised use of Russian military forces within Ukraine to “protect the lives of Russian citizens there.” Interim President Olexander Turchynov, only a week into new role, has issued full military mobilisation of Ukrainian forces in response. Western forces have condemned Russia’s moves; US Secretary of State John Kerry has warned Russia that these actions could case the nation to be ejected from the Group of Eight (G8) developed nations. Moscow has not heeded calls to return troops to their stations.

Further complicating matters, on Sunday the newly appointed head of Ukraine’s navy, Rear Admiral Denys Berezovsky, swore allegiance to Crimea and its unrecognised pro-Russian leader, pledging to “strictly obey the orders of the supreme commander of the autonomous republic of Crimea” and “defend the lives and freedom” of Crimea’s people. Berezovsky said 1 March would go down in history as the birthday of the “navy of the autonomous republic of Crimea”. He held his Ukrainian post for only one day before being fired and charged with treason.

The Ukrainan issue is not a “cut and dry” matter. Ukraine, which literally translates to “Borderland”, is a nation with two distinct but powerful identities. There are 45 million people living in Ukraine; in the west, the Ukrainian population largely identifies as ethnic Ukrainian, or European. In the eastern part, the population identifies largely as ethnic Russian. The 2010 Ukrainian election was heavily divided between these two regions.  The eventual winner of the election was Viktor Yanukovych, who hailed from the Donetsk Oblast province of eastern Ukraine. Citizens in western Ukraine were dissatisfied with the results, perceiving Yanukovych as a corrupt leader.

Economic Slowdown

Yanukovych’s image worsened in the face of Ukraine’s stunted economy, which has particularly weak over the last two years. The nation’s GDP in 2013 was 0%; in 2012 it was 0.2%. Industrial production fell by 5 percent due to decreases in demand for steel and engineering exports and Ukraine’s energy inefficiency. The unemployment rate is approximately 7.5 percent. There is a shortage of skilled workers; many college graduates are unemployed or underemployed. Insufficient income and an unstable economic environment have resulted in mass migration of skilled and unskilled workers. This resource drain is exacerbated by one of the fastest aging populations in Europe. At the current rate of aging and migration, the workforce is expected to shrink by at least 15% over the next 20 years. Since 24 December, Ukrainian currency (the hryvnia) has dropped 15%. In early January, the National Bank of Ukraine limited individual purchases of foreign currency, and imposed a waiting period of six days on companies purchasing foreign currency.

Yanukovych, hoping to strengthen the stalled economy, met with the EU in November to develop an agreement which would open borders to goods and set the stage for travel restrictions to be eased. However, he backed out of the agreement, citing that the EU’s offer would not be enough to stimulate the economy, and that Ukraine could not afford to sacrifice trade with Russia.

Crimea

Russia has been particularly eager to assist Ukraine because of its interests in one particular region of the nation. The Crimean Peninsula, which rests between the Sea of Azov on the east and the Black Sea on the west, is home to Russia’s Black Sea naval fleet, Russia’s only warm water port. The desirable region is known for producing tobacco and wine, and its warm climate has made it a thriving tourist area with many seaside resorts. The peninsula has been invaded and occupied as far back as the 7^th century.

In February 1954, Crimea was gifted to Ukraine from Nikita Khrushchev to mark the 300th anniversary of Ukraine becoming a part of the Russian Empire. When the gift was given, the region was still under Soviet control. However, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia found itself with a naval base in an independent nation, causing long-term tensions between the two nations since. Despite negotiations leading to Russia’s lease of the naval port, Russia has not been pleased with terms of their lease, or their reliance on a foreign nation to host their port. The annexation of Crimea would greatly benefit Russia.

Citizens of Crimea largely identify with Russia as well. Crimea’s population is nearly 60% ethnic Russian, 24% Ukrainian, and 12% Tartar. The dominant Russian population is wary of pro-Western leadership in Kiev. Following the removal of pro-Russian president Yanukovych last week, residents have called for the autonomous republic to secede from the rest of Ukraine.

It is unlikely that Russia will give up the opportunity to annex Crimea. Democratic options do not seem likely to be successful. While the standoff between Russia, the Ukraine, the EU and the US is complicated, this complex shift also affects other parts of the world. On Wednesday, Russia’s defence minister announced that Russia would expand its military projection abroad, including in Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua. In January, Russia docked a spy ship in Cuba. In the Middle East the fallout could particularly affect Syria, which relies on Russia’s support to maintain the Assad government.

TIMELINE OF UKRAINE UPRISING

November

21 November: President Yanukovych’s cabinet announces it will abandon an agreement to strengthen trade ties with the EU, opting to seek closer co-operation with Russia. Protests begin that same night.

December

8 December: The number of protesters surpasses 800,000. Demonstrators occupy Kiev City Hall and Independence Square

January 2014

16 January: Ukraine’s parliament passes restrictive anti-protest laws.

22 January: Three people are killed, in clashes with security forces, the first since the start of the unrest.

23 January: After his reported abduction, the body of prominent activist Yuriy Verbytsky is found in a forest.

24 January: Protestors storm regional government offices in Western Ukraine.

28 January: Prime Minister Mykola Azarov resigns. Parliament annuls anti-protest laws.

February

14 February: All 234 protesters who have been arrested are released. Charges against them remain.

16 February: Protesters temporarily evacuate Kiev City Hall and other public buildings. A day later, arrested protesters are granted amnesty.

18 February: At least 18 people are killed, including seven policemen. Protesters re-take Kiev’s City Hall. Riot police encircle Independence Square, which contains nearly 25,000 protesters.

20 February: From the 18^th to 20^th, the death toll from clashes reaches 77, with hundreds injured. Three European Union foreign ministers are dispatched to Ukraine broker a deal.

21 February: France, Germany, and Poland broker a compromise between the government and opposition leaders. The deal involves a new national unity government, constitutional changes, and early elections, to be held by December. In western Ukraine, protesters defiantly continue to occupy government, refusing to recognise Kiev authorities.

22 February: Demonstrators take control of presidential administration buildings. Opposition leaders call for elections on 25 May. President Yanukovych is missing; believed to have fled to Kharkiv. Parliament votes to remove him from power, setting new elections for 25 May. In a televised appearance, Yanukovych denounces the “coup d’etat”.

23 February: Olexander Turchynov is named interim president. Turchynov gives MPs until 25 February to form a new unity government. A day later, an arrest warrant is issued for Yanukovych.

26 February: The proposed new coalition government is revealed. The acting interior minister disbands elite Berkut police unit, blamed for deaths of protesters. Rival protests are held in Crimea.

27 February: In the Crimean capital, Simferopol, pro-Russian gunmen seize key buildings. The gunmen raise a Russian flag outside the Simferopol regional parliament building.

28 February: Unidentified gunmen, appear outside Crimea’s main airports. Interior Minister Arsen Avakov declares the move an “armed invasion” by Russia.

 Speaking from a news conference in Russia, Yanukovych insists he is still president and will oppose any military intervention or division of Ukraine. Ukraine’s central bank limits daily foreign currency cash withdrawals to the equivalent of 15,000 hryvnia (£820).

March

1 March: Russian parliament approves Vladimir Putin’s request to use Russian forces across Ukraine. Ukraine’s acting President Olexander Turchynov puts his army on full alert. Pro-Russian rallies take place in several Ukrainian cities outside Crimea. US President Barack Obama urges Putin to pull forces back to bases in Crimea. Putin says Moscow reserves the right to protect its interests and those of ethnic Russians.

Tagged as: Black Sea, Crimea, Russia, Ukraine, United States, Victor Yanukovych, Vladimir Putin

Security At Sochi

With the 2014 Olympic Games set to open in Sochi, Russia in two days, questions relating to security, and Russia’s ability to thwart further terrorist attacks, continue to be the main focus as thousands of spectators, media officials and sportsmen begin to descend on the Black Sea region.  Dubbed “Putin’s Games,” anticipation surrounding the upcoming Games has shared headline’s with issues of security and the region’s recent history of unrest and the potential of violence targeting spectators and athletes.

A week before the official opening of the Games, United States government officials issued a warning that more terrorist attacks in Russia were “very likely to occur” in the run-up to, or during, the Winter Olympics in Sochi, where eight-eight countries will be competing.  An official assessment of the threat has indicated that a Caucasus group, Imarat Kavakaz (IK), poses the main danger to the Games, which will occur on Russia’s Black Sea coast.  According to the threat assessment, this Caucasus group has repeatedly expressed a desire to target the Sochi Games.  On one such occurrence in July 2013, the group’s fugitive leader, Emir Doku Umarove, called on his followers to do what they could in order to disrupt the games.  Islamist militants from Dagestan, and nearby republics of Ingushetia and Chechnya, are also considered by officials in Moscow to be a major threat to the Games.

Recent Terrorist Attacks

Over the past few months, anticipation for the opening of the Games has been overshadowed by continuing questions relating to the safety and security of athletes and spectators in the wake of a number of suicide bombings and attacks.

In December 2013, thirty-four people were killed in two separate explosions that were carried out by suicide bombers in the southern Russian city of Volgograd.  The two bombings occurred just months after another suicide bombing targeted a bus in the city and just two days after a car bomb killed three people in the southern city of Pyatigorsk on 27 December.  Pyatigorsk lies 270 km (170 miles) east of Sochi.

On 29 December, a suicide bombing took place at the Volgorad-1 station in the city of Volograd, which is situated in the Volograd Oblast of Southern Russia.  The blast killed eighteen people and injured forty-four.  The attack, which occurred around 12:45 PM Moscow Time, was carried out near the metal detectors by the entrance of the station.  A day later, on the morning of 30 December at about 8:30 AM Moscow Time in the Dzerzhinsky district in Volograd, a bombing targeted the No. 1233 trolleybus of route 15A, which connects a suburb to Volograd’s downtown area.  The explosion occurred as the trolleybus passed one of the city’s main markets.  The attack killed sixteen people and injured forty-one.   The two bombings occurred just two months after a suicide bomber set off explosives on a bus.  The attack, which occurred in October, killed six people and injured another thirty.  It was also the first incident to occur outside the North Caucasus region after Chechen rebel leader Doku Umarov called for a resumption of attacks on civilians, and urged militants to target the Sochi Games.

In January 2014, Russian investigators announced that they believed the perpetrators of the two Volograd bombings in late December were two men who arrived in the city from the North Caucasus region.  A video posted on 19 January, by a group calling itself Vilayat Dagestan, depicted what appeared to be the bombers donning explosive belts and brandishing weapons.  During the video, the two men warned President Vladimir Putin to expect a “present” at the Olympics.

At the end of January 2014, Russia’s National Anti-Terrorist Committee (NAK) announced the identities of two suicide bombers responsible for killing two people in the Volograd.  According to the NAK, Asker Samedov and Suleyman Magomedov were members of a group based in the town of Buynaksk, officials further noted that two men suspected of helping the terrorists were arrested in Dagestan.

Despite the arrests, threats of further attacks have continued and Russian police announced in late January that they were hunting for other suspects, including a woman whom they fear may be planning to carry out a suicide bomb attack during the Games.  Police officials in Sochi put up wanted posters in hostels around the town.  The woman, 23-year-old Ruzana Ibragimova, from Dagestan in the North Caucasus region, is believed to be the widow of an Islamist militant.  Officials in Russia believe that despite tight security, she entered Sochi earlier this month.  Other police posters have indicated that at least two other potential female suicide bombers are also at large.

Several national Olympic associations have also reported receiving emails threatening athletes with attacks.  A statement by the International Olympic Committee (IOC) indicated that the email appeared to be “a random message from a member of the public,” adding that it posed no threat.  Officials at the British Olympic Association indicated that they “receive correspondence of every type and it is not uncommon to come across something like this that lacks credibility.  While the IOC and national bodies, have widely dismissed such emails, deeming them as not credible, the threat of an attack during the Games remains real.

Security

Since the December bombings, officials in Russia launched a massive security operation to provide security for the Winter Olympic Games.  Despite growing international concerns and scrutiny of Russia’s ability to thwart such attacks, officials in Russia have ensured those travelling to Sochi, that security is their upmost priority, as the country will host the largest event since the fall of the Soviet Union.

After the deadly suicide bombings in Volograd, Russia launched one of the largest security operations in Olympic history.  More than 30,000 police and interior ministry troops have been deployed, while access to Sochi and the Olympic area has been limited.  According to Emergency Situations Minister Vladimir Puchkov, “starting 7 January, all divisions responsible for ensuring the guests’ security at the Games are being put on combat alert,” adding that “every facility will be put under protection and a space-based monitoring system will be launched.”

Russian officials have established two security zones to protect the Games.  A “controlled zone,” located near the Olympic venues, will limit access to people with tickets and proof of identity, while another “forbidden zone” will be in place in large areas around Sochi.  Vehicles not registered locally, and which do not have special accreditation, will be banned from the city.  The sale of firearms, explosives and ammunition will also be prohibited.  Airport-style security is in force for commuters using local trains.  Hundreds of volunteers will also body-search all passengers at each station.  Two US warships will be on standby in the Black Sea when the Games begin on 7 February.  Washington has also offered to supply Russia with hi-tech equipment in order to help detect improvised explosives.

Despite this, security concerns remains.  On Wednesday, Australian Olympic team chef de mission Ian Chesterman announced that team members were banned from travelling into Sochi city as a security precaution.  A statement issued by Australian Olympic team officials indicated that athletes will be limited to locations within the security perimeters of the Olympic Park and sporting complexes within the mountain zone.  In response, IOC spokesman Mark Adams stated that while the recommendation to avoid Sochi city had not come from the IOC, “we believe that security is being handled very well.”

With the Winter Olympics now being a prime target for terror attacks, Moscow has had no choice but to ensure the maximum possible security in Sochi.  However the suicide bombings in Volograd have demonstrated that Russia’s security problem extends beyond the Black Sea region, and will likely continue after the conclusion of the Games on 23 February.  The recent terror attacks have demonstrated that terror groups can strike anywhere.  However while it is difficult to secure an Olympic city, it is almost impossible to secure the whole country.  And while the eyes of the world will focus on Sochi for the next few weeks, and will likely scrutinize what are set to be the most expensive Olympic Games, once the Olympic flame is extinguished, officials and authorities in Russia will have to turn their focus onto the North Caucasus region and the area’s history of instability.

Tagged as: Black Sea, Chechnya, Dagestan, Imarat Kavakaz, Ingushetia, Moscow, North Caucasus, Olympic Games, Pyatigorsk, Russia, Sochi, United States, Volograd