Tag Archives: Russia

The Likelihood of a US-North Korea War. How Can China Help?

A US-North Korea war is highly unlikely. What is likely is status quo – vibrating waves of security tensions, sanctions, and South Korea and Japan’s whiny diplomacy to tell on North Korea to the US. As much as the world is entertained by Trump’s loud rhetoric that the US will unilaterally take care of the North Korean problem, the stakes are too high for China, South Korea and Japan to allow US attack on North Korea. Perhaps the only agenda common to China, South Korea and Japan right now on this matter is that none of them wants a war in the region.

When it comes to North Korea, we’re talking about a regime that:

• thrives on the nation’s fear of the regime;
• is not accountable to the nation for its actions;
• will not hesitate to starve the nation just to be able to wage a war, if it must;

And yet it is highly unlikely that Kim Jong Un wants to start war with the US. The dictator is brandishing threats against the US and its two Asian allies in the region to likely seek the least compromised peace treaty with the US. The regime would not see itself gaining in a peace negotiation unless it can project formidable military capability. Sustaining the regime is undoubtedly Kim’s biggest priority and going into a war with the US is his least likely option.

The US unilateral strikes on North Korea will likely anger Japan and South Korea more than China as the two Asian countries will have to bear the brunt of a North Korean retaliation. The safety of South Koreans and Japanese are as important as that of the US, not to mention that there are 29,000 and 50,000 US troops in South Korea and Japan respectively. Besides, North Korea has massed artillery and missile capability adjacent to the demilitarized zone, close to South Korea. It has been estimated that in this scenario alone, North Korea could potentially cause 100,000 casualties in South Korea.

China, on the other hand, has remained ambivalent whether or not it will defend North Korea in the event of a military conflict. According to the 1961 Sino North Korean Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance, China is obliged to intervene against unprovoked aggression toward North Korea. But the Asian superpower has its own priorities in the region and can likely adopt other means to stop the supposed war between the US and North Korea. China’s support to North Korea dates back to the Korean War (1950-1953). Since then, China has provided political and economic backing to the North Korean regimes. But relations between the two countries have strained over the years since North Korea’s proliferation of nuclear weapons. Beijing has also supported sanctions from UN Security Council Resolutions and implemented new trade sanctions including reduced energy supplies to North Korea and has called for denuclearization talks. But China is also known to have stopped international punitive action against North Korea over human rights violations. China’s support to North Korea ensures a buffer between China and democratic South Korea, home to around 29,000 US troops and marines. Also, the apprehension of hundred of thousands of North Korean refugees flooding into China in the event of an unstable North Korea is a huge concern for Beijing. It is highly likely that China will want North Korea’s stability, which, otherwise, will jeopardize China’s strategic buffer and bring US troops too close for comfort.

While Trump has been urging China to do more to confront North Korea, the US has also sent an aircraft carrier strike group to the region, heightening concerns in China. China is worried that North Korea’s test of military hardware could provoke a strong response from Washington. Amidst the tension, China has sought Russia’s help to cool tensions over North Korea. Russia has also warned North Korea that Kim’s threats to deliver preemptive nuclear strikes could create a legal ground for the use of military force against the country.

There is a realistic possibility that the US does not know exactly what North Korean nuclear capability is as Kim’s threats have rapidly escalated US concerns. But the US ought to know that North Korea’s military capability is sufficient to annihilate millions in South Korea and Japan, should a war break out between the US and North Korea. That North Korea will be smashed in retaliation cannot be a consolation or measure of success in this war.

The US has pushed North Korea to irreversibly give up its nuclear weapons program in return for aid and diplomatic benefits. Washington believes in using pressure to influence North Korea to change its behavior. But the only likely power to influence North Korea is China. Pressing China to force North Korea to give up its nuclear arms is, however, ineffective, rather pushing China to make sure that North Korea does not use them is a reasonable way forward. It is almost certain that Beijing will actively seek to stop a supposed US strike on North Korea. This could be through attempts to force North Korea to negotiate. If that fails and a war is imminent, China is likely to deploy troops on the line in North Korea to dissuade the US from striking. It’s the same strategy that the US adopts as it stations troops in South Korea and Poland. The Chinese forces in North Korea would then also be in a position to force a coup and install an alternative government to the Kim regime, which ensures that North Korea survives and Chinese priorities in the region are served.

The lynchpin of this assessment is that Kim Jong Un is a rational actor in this matter. It is likely that he will not lose sight of his need to sustain his regime. With that in perspective, tensions will still prevail but the likelihood of a war in the region is remote.

UN: Syrian Refugee Numbers Pass 5 Million Mark in Region

Data from the United Nations refugees agency released late last month showed that the number of people fleeing Syria’s civil war to Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Egypt has passed the 5 million mark.

According to the latest data collected by UNHCR and the government of Turkey, a total of 5,018,168 people have now taken refugee in Syria’s neighbours and in other countries in the regions. Millions more have fled to other parts of the country, including tends of thousands in March, mainly women and children, who were trying to get away from a rebel offensive northwest of the city of Hama.

Since 2011, in the wake of anti-government protests, which spiralled into a full-blown conflict between rebels, Islamist militants, government troops and foreign backers Syrians have poured across these countries borders. While an initial rush of refugees in 2013 and 2014 steadied for the following two years, the numbers have again risen this year after the military victory by the government and its Russian allies in the northern city of Aleppo. Syrians have also fled to Europe in large numbers, making 884,461 asylum claims between April 2011 and October 2016, with almost two-thirds of those claims being in Germany or Sweden. Hundreds of thousands more live in Gulf countries that are no party to the 1951 Refugee Convention, such as Saudi Arabi, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, so they are not recorded as refugees. A UN-led humanitarian appeal to help Syrian refugees and support host communities has received only 6 percent of the money that it requires this year – US $298 million out of US $4.6 billion.

UN: Syrian Refugee Numbers Pass 5 Million Mark in Region

Data from the United Nations refugees agency released late last month showed that the number of people fleeing Syria’s civil war to Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Egypt has passed the 5 million mark.

According to the latest data collected by UNHCR and the government of Turkey, a total of 5,018,168 people have now taken refugee in Syria’s neighbours and in other countries in the regions. Millions more have fled to other parts of the country, including tends of thousands in March, mainly women and children, who were trying to get away from a rebel offensive northwest of the city of Hama.

Since 2011, in the wake of anti-government protests, which spiralled into a full-blown conflict between rebels, Islamist militants, government troops and foreign backers Syrians have poured across these countries borders. While an initial rush of refugees in 2013 and 2014 steadied for the following two years, the numbers have again risen this year after the military victory by the government and its Russian allies in the northern city of Aleppo. Syrians have also fled to Europe in large numbers, making 884,461 asylum claims between April 2011 and October 2016, with almost two-thirds of those claims being in Germany or Sweden. Hundreds of thousands more live in Gulf countries that are no party to the 1951 Refugee Convention, such as Saudi Arabi, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, so they are not recorded as refugees. A UN-led humanitarian appeal to help Syrian refugees and support host communities has received only 6 percent of the money that it requires this year – US $298 million out of US $4.6 billion.

US Charges Russian Spies, Hackers in Yahoo Hack

The United States last week charged two Russian intelligence agents and two criminal hackers with masterminding the 2014 theft of 500 million Yahoo accounts in a move that marks the first time that the US government has criminally charged Russian spies with cyber offenses.

The 47-count Justice Department indictments on Wednesday 15 March included charges of conspiracy, computer fraud and abuse, economic espionage, theft of trade secrets, wire fraud, access device fraud and aggravated identify theft. The charges also paint a picture of the Russian security services as working hand-in-hand with cyber criminals, who helped spies further their intelligence goals in exchange for using the same exploits to make money. Speaking at a press conference to announce the charges, Acting Assistant Attorney General Mary McCord disclosed that the criminal conduct at issue, carried out and otherwise facilitated by officers from an FSB unit that serves as the FBIs point of contact in Moscow on cyber crime matters, is beyond the pale. Russias Federal Security Service (FSB) is the successor to the KGB. McCord further disclosed that the hacking campaign was awarded by the FSB in order to collect intelligence but that the two hackers used the collected information as an opportunity to line their pockets.

The indictment named the FSB officers involved as Dmitry Dokuchaev and his superior, Igor Sushchin, both of whom are in Russia. According to Russian news agency Interfax, Dokuchaev was arrested for treason in December. According to the Justice Department, the alleged criminals involved in the scheme include Alexsey Belan, who is amongst the FBIs most-wanted cyber criminals and was arrested in Europe in June 2013 however he escaped to Russia before he could be extradited to the US. Karim Baratov, who was born in Kazakhstan but also has Canadian citizenship, was also named in the indictment. The Justice Department disclosed that Baratov was arrested in Canada on 14 March. Officials in Toronto have confirmed the arrest. The US does not have an extradition treat with Russia, with McCord stating that she was hopeful that Russian authorities would cooperate in bringing criminals to justice. The US often charges cyber criminals with the intent of deterring future state-sponsored activity.

The charges announced last week are not related to the hacking of Democratic Party emails during the 2016 US presidential election. US intelligence agencies have stated that they were carried out by Russian spy services, including the FSB, in order to help the campaign of Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Yahoo disclosed when it announced the then-unprecedented breach last September, that it believed that the attack was state-sponsored. On Wednesday, the company stated that the indictment unequivocally shows that to be the case.

According to the indictment, in the 2014 breach, at least thirty million of the Yahoo accounts were the most seriously affected, with Belan being able to burrow deep into their accounts and taking user contact lists that were later used for a financially motivated spam campaign. The indictment went on to say that Belan also stole financial information, such as credit card numbers and gift cards. Yahoo had previously stated that about 32 million accounts had fallen victim to the deeper attack, which it said leveraged forged browser cookies to access accounts without the need for a password. According to Wednesdays indictment, FSB officers Sushchin and Dokuchaev also directed Baratov to use the information gained in the Yahoo breach to hack specific targets who possessed email accounts with other service providers, including Google. The incitement charged that when Baratov was successful, Dokuchaev would reward him with a bounty.

In December 2016, Yahoo announced another breach that occurred in 2013 and which affected 1 billion accounts. At the time, Special Agent Jack Bennett of the FBIs San Francisco Division disclosed that the 2013 breach is unrelated and that an investigation of that incident is ongoing. The hacks forced Yahoo to accept a discount of US $350 million in what had been a US $4.83 billion deal to sell its main assets of Verizon Communications Inc.

The charges come amidst a number of controversies relating to alleged Kremlin-backed hacking of the 2016 US presidential election and the possible links between Russian figures and associates of US President Donald Trump, as well as uncertainty about whether President Trump is willing to respond forcefully to aggression from Moscow in cyberspace and elsewhere.

New MI6 Chief Warns of Terrorist Threat to UK

This month, the new head of MI6 disclosed that the scale of the terrorism threat to the United Kingdom is “unprecedented.”

According to Alex Younger, UK intelligence and security services have disrupted twelve terrorist plots since June 2013, adding that many of the threats came from ungoverned spaces in the Middle East – namely Iraq and Syria. He further warned that “hybrid warfare,” which included cyber attacks and subverting democracy, was becoming an “increasingly dangerous phenomenon,” noting, “the risks at stake are profound and represent a fundamental threat to our sovereignty…They should be a concern to all those who share democratic values.”

In his first public speech since taking up the post of “C,” Mr Younger warned of the impact of Russia’s alliance with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in casting all opponents of President Assad as terrorists. He disclosed, “I believe the Russian conduct in Syria – allied with that of Assad’s discredited regime – will, if they do not change course, provide a tragic example of the perils of forfeiting legitimacy.” He went on to say that “in defining as a terrorist anyone who opposes a brutal regime they alienate precisely that group that has to be onside if the extremists are to be defeated,” adding “we cannot be safe from the threats that emanate from that land unless the civil war is brought to an end.”

Speaking to journalists at MI6 headquarters in London, Mr Younger disclosed that the so-called Islamic State (IS) group had exploited the situation in Syria to fortify its stronghold in the region and to wage a war on the West, adding that IS had a “highly organized external attack planning structure” that was plotting attacks against the UK and its allies “without ever having to leave Syria.”

In describing the risks that MI6 agents face in the field, Mr Younger disclosed that “encountering terrorism, some of our agents operate in the most dangerous and hostile environments on earth,” adding, “they know that the result of being identified as an MI6 agent could be their death. But they do what they do because they believe in protecting their country – and religion – from the evil that Daesh (IS) and other terrorist organizations present.”

Since August 2014 the threat level for international terrorism in the UK has been severe, effectively meaning that an attack is highly likely. There are five threat levels – low, moderate, substantial, severe and critical – which are set up by the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre.