Tag Archives: Russia

US Intelligence Reports Indicate IS May Have Planted Bomb in Russian Plane

Days after authorities dismissed claims that the Islamic State (IS) Group brought down a Russian passenger jet on Saturday, a US intelligence analysis has now suggested that either the terror group or one of its affiliates planted a bomb on the plane. On Thursday, Britain also disclosed that there was a significant possibility that IS’ Egyptian affiliate was behind a suspected bomb attack on the Russian airliner that killed 224 people in the Sinai Peninsula. Russia, however, has indicated that such theories remain speculation at this stage, adding that only the official investigation can determine what occurred. Egyptian officials have also disclosed that so far, there is no indication that a bomb was to blame.

On Saturday, Metrojet Flight 9268 crashed in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula after breaking apart in mid-air. It was en route to St Petersburg from the Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh.

Multiple US officials have indicated that the latest US intelligence has suggested that the crash was most likely caused by a bomb that was planted on the plane by IS or an affiliate. One US official has indicted that intelligence also suggests that someone at the Sharm el-Sheikh airport helped get a bomb onto the plane. The official disclosed that “this airport has lax security. It is known for that…But there is intelligence suggesting an assist from someone at the airport.” Officials however have stressed that no formal conclusion has been reached by the US intelligence community and that US officials have not seen forensic evidence from the crash investigation.

Egyptian authorities who are leading the investigation into the crash, have not publicly responded to the US intelligence reports however since the crash, they have downplayed the possibility that this could have been a terrorist attack. Both Egypt and Russia have also stated that any theories are “speculation.”

In the wake of the crash, late on Wednesday, the UK announced that it has suspended flights to and from Sharm el-Sheikh. Ireland and the Netherlands have also banned flights to and from Sharm el-Sheikh. On Thursday, German airline Lufthansa announced that its subsidiaries Edelweiss and Eurowings are stopping all flights to Sharm el-Sheikh. On Saturday, the airline reported that its planes would no longer fly over the Sinai Peninsula. Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin, has disclosed that Russian planes are still flying to and from Sharm el-Sheikh airport.

British Prime Minister David Cameron has indicated in the wake of the UK suspending flights to and from Sharm el-Sheikh, that it could be “some time” before all British tourists stranded in the tourist destination are home. Sources have disclosed that UK security experts are working with local authorities in order to get Britons home. Monarch airlines has reported that three “rescue flights” will operate on Friday. The airline further indicated that the flights would be in addition to its two scheduled flights. British Airways has also confirmed that it will operate two flights. There are an estimated 20,000 Britons in the Red Sea resort, including 1,000 residents. Extra UK consular staff have been drafted in to Sharm el-Sheikh aiport while a Ministry of Defense source has disclosed that a small team of UK military personnel are in the resort in order to advise Foreign Office officials and Department of Transport officials on logistics and security.

If a bomb did kill 224 passengers and crew aboard the Airbus A321, that would almost certainly undermine Egypt’s tourism industry, which is still recovering from years of political turmoil. On Thursday, security at Sharm el-Sheikh airport appeared to have been tightened, with security forces patrolling the terminals and not allowing drivers, tour agents or others to loiter while awaiting tourist arrivals.

IS Affiliated Group Claims Responsibility for Russian Plane Crash in Egypt

Egyptian President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi has indicated that claims, put forth by militants linked to the Islamic State (IS) group that they brought down a Russian airliner, are “propaganda.” The Egyptian president however noted that it is too early to say what caused the crash of the Airbus 321.

On Wednesday, in an audio message posted on a Twitter account used by the group, IS’ Egyptian affiliate dismissed doubts that it had downed the Russian passenger plane over Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, stating that it would tell the world how it did so in its own time.   In the message, the speaker stated, “we say to the deniers and the doubters: Die from your frustration. We, with God’s grace, are the ones who brought it down, and we are not obliged to disclose the mechanism of its demise…So go to your wreckage, search, bring your black boxes and analyse, give us the summary of your research and the product of your expertise and prove that we did not bring it down or how it came down,” adding, “we will disclose the mechanism of its demise at the time that we want and in the way that we want.”

The Russian-operated Airbus A321M crashed Saturday just 23 minutes after taking off from the Red Sea resort of Sharm al-Sheikh on its way to St Petersburg. All 224 people on board, most of whom were Russian citizens, were killed. The plane’s flight recorders have been found and have been sent for analysis. Meanwhile, Russian rescue teams have extended the search for bodies and wreckage from the plane to a 40 sq-km (15 sq-km) area, with officials disclosing that drones are being used in order to scan the sandy and hilly terrain.

Sinai Province, which is an Egyptian group that has pledged loyalty to IS, had earlier released a statement, on the same day as the crash, that it had brought down the airliner “in response to Russian airstrikes that killed hundreds of Muslims on Syrian land.” The claim however has been dismissed by both Egyptian and Russian officials. Security experts and investigators have disclosed that the plane is unlikely to have been struck from the outside and that Sinai-based militants are not believed to possess the technology to shoot down a jet from a cruising altitude above 30,000 feet. Russian officials have disclosed that the plane probably broke up in the air, a theory that has opened the prospect of some kind of explosion on board.

On Monday, the airline Kogalymavia, which has just renamed itself Metrojet, blamed “external influence” for the crash, stating that it has ruled out a technical fault or pilot error. According to Alexander Smirnov, “the only (explanation) for the plane to have been destroyed in mid-air can be specific impact, purely mechanical, physical influence on the aircraft,” adding that “there is no such combination of failures of systems which could have led to the plane disintegrating in the air.” He further indicated that the plane lost speed and began descending rapidly, adding that the crew made no attempt to get in contact and report about the situation on board. The head of Russia’s Federal Aviation Agency, Aleksandr Neradko, however has told Russian TV that such talk was premature and “not based on any proper facts.” Egyptian President Sisi has also warned against jumping to conclusions, stating, “all those interested in the matter are welcome to participate in the investigation.” He further stated that “when there is propaganda that it crashed because of ISIS (IS), this is one way to damage the stability and security of Egypt and the image of Egypt. Believe me, the situation in Sinai – especially in this limited area – is under our full control.” The US director of national intelligence, James Clapper, has also indicated that there is no “direct evidence of any terrorist involvement yet,” noting, “its unlikely, but I wouldn’t rule it out.”

In 2011, militants launched an insurgency in the Sinai following the fall of President Hosni Mubarak. The increased their attacks after the military overthrew President Mohammed Morsi in mid-2013. A year ago, the insurgents renamed their movement Sinai Province and pledged alliance to the Islamic State. Since then, hundreds of police and soldiers operating in the region have been killed.

On 30 September, Russia, which is an ally of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, launched air raids against opposition groups in Syria, including IS. The hardline group however has called for war against both Russia and the United States in response to their air strikes in Syria. On Tuesday, IS backers in Iraq issued a video congratulating their Egyptian colleagues and warning Russian President Vladimir Putin that more was to come.

Russian Missiles Target IS in Syria from Caspian Sea

Russia has indicated that it has launched rocket strikes on Islamic State (IS) group targets in Syria from warships in the Caspian Sea, located about 1,500 kilometres (930 miles) away.

According to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, four warhips fired 26 sea-based cruise missiles on 11 targets, destroying them and casusing no civilian casualties. Meanwhile Syrian offficials have disclosed that Syrian ground roops have launched an offensive under Russian air cover. It appears to be the first co-ordinated offensive since the air campaign by Russia, which is a staunch ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, began on 30 September.

Russia has also denied claims that its week of strikes have mainly hit non-IS targets. While Russia has indicated that it is targeting “all terrorists,” at least some of its air strikes have reportedly hit civilians and Western-backed rebels. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported earlier this week that “the most intense fighting in months” in Hama and Idlib provinces, adding that the clashes followed a wave of Russian air strikes in the same areas. US Defence Secretary Ash Carter has reported that coalition forces fighting IS in Syria would not co-operate with Russia, indicating that “we believe Russia has the wrong strategy…They continue to hit targets that are not IS. We believe this is a fundamental mistake.”

Ukraine Situation Update (24 July 2015)

Despite the Minsk II ceasefire agreement officially still being in full effect since mid-February, eastern Ukraine has had to cope with a new wave of violence that started in June and which increased in intensity in July, 2015. During the last week of June the foreign ministers of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany met in an effort to revive high-end diplomatic efforts to bring an end to the conflict between the governmental forces and the pro-Russian militants in eastern Ukraine. A statement released by the French foreign minister at the end of the meeting disclosed that the ministers agreed that a quick de-escalation of hostilities is imperative to allow the negotiation of a viable peace deal that would arrange a series of political, security, humanitarian and economic issues that arose with the creation of the rebel regions in eastern Ukraine.

However during July it was proved that the meeting did not succeed in decreasing the tensions between the two sides in Ukraine. The new violations were confirmed from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) that warned on July 3 that a growing presence of heavy weaponry on the government controlled side of Donbass territory put governmental forces in violation of the terms of the demarcation line. It also noted the augmented movement and use of military equipment by the Ukrainian forces. According to OSCE Deputy Chief Monitor, Alexander Hug, the same processes were noted in the self-proclaimed People’s Republic of Donetsk, where there was an increase in military equipment around Komsomolskoe. OSCE also reported that it had documented shelling on the buffer-zone areas in eastern Ukraine.

However, the biggest part of the hostilities are taking place in Donetsk, where between July 11 and 17 six people died as a result of hostilities, and 13 people were wounded, among them 11 civilians and two soldiers. In addition to that, six people were reported missing and illegally detained during the same period. Donetsk’s ombudswoman, Darya Morozova, reported that the number of people detained by the Ukrainian side has reached 1,500. She added that while prisoner exchanges have been effected between Ukraine and the rebel forces of Donetsk and Lugansk peoples republics, Kiev has refused to include many of the political as well as military prisoners it is holding. The tension between the two sides intensified further since the new wave of violence in Donetsk resulted in civilians deaths and the destruction of the city’s infrastructure. The National Defence and Security Council of Ukraine said that the pro-Russian militants has concentrated heavy weaponry in three major points around Donetsk: in the village of Spartak, at the now-destroyed Donetsk airport, and in the Kievskiy district of the city. According to the Council the separatists used these points to launch heavy shelling of both Ukrainian positions and residential areas on July 19. The shelling resulted in the deaths of four civilians —including a 9-year-old girl— and four others were injured in Ukraine-controlled territory. Additionally, the Ukrainian military reported that in the last 24 hours one Ukrainian soldier has been killed and seven others have been wounded. Apart from the deaths, the shelling caused the destruction of at least four residential blocks in the city of Donetsk. The separatist group, the self-described Donetsk People’s Republic, confirmed that 19 buildings were damaged including a hospital. Further destruction had been caused on July 18 when another person died and three were injured in a massive fire in the central part of the city, without the official causes of the fire being disclosed. On July 19 and after the news of new shelling and the destruction in Donetsk, Eduard Basurin, a spokesman for the Donetsk People’s Republic, said the Republic had agreed to withdraw 100-millimeter weapons to locations 3 kilometres from the front line. The media quoted Basurin saying that the decisions was dictated under the ‘’unswerving desire and the will to establish peace in the Donbass’’.

At the same time, the first week of July, a Ukrainian group that supports the Ukrainian government published a video captured by drone aircraft and it was reported that it shows a Russian military encampment in eastern Ukraine. There have been many claims concerning the Russian army’s involvement in eastern Ukraine however Russia has denied any direct involvement. If the video is proved to be legit it would be the first tangible proof of Russian army’s involvement in eastern Ukraine fighting along the pro-Russian militants. The video was posted on YouTube by Dnipro-1, a volunteer defence force. It included English subtitles and claims the encampment is in the village of Solncevo, in Ukraine’s Donetsk region. The video points out T-72 tanks, construction equipment and large tents, raising questions about whether a headquarters has been established for command and control. However. the authenticity of the video is still under doubt and there have not been any official commends regarding the footage.

On top of these incidents, the Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, said that the threat of criminal violence has ‘’significantly risen’’ in Ukraine, describing the country awash with trafficked weapons. The crisis enables criminal to thrive and benefit from the instability. He said weapons were being trafficked from the conflict zone. With police resources focused on the east, “there will be an increase in grievous and especially life-threatening crimes” in other parts of Ukraine. Poroshenko and the government hope a new police force, which was trained by U.S. and Canadian forces, will help combat widespread corruption in Ukraine, which is on the brink of bankruptcy after years of economic mismanagement.

Violent incidents were reported in western Ukraine opening a new security crisis for the Ukrainian President. On July 11, two fighters of Ukraine’s Right Sector far-right paramilitary group were killed and four wounded in a shootout in Ukraine’s western town of Mukachevo. Earlier on in the day, Ukrainian media reported that one person was killed and nine injured in Mukachevo, after some unidentified people seized a local sport complex and exchanged gunfire with police. Anton Herashchenko, an adviser to the Ukrainian interior minister, said that three attackers were killed and three policemen and four civilians were injured in Mukachevo. The mayor of Mukachevo later added that a total of 10 people were injured during the shootout, including five civilians and five members of law enforcement agencies. Alexander Sachko, the head of the Right Sector group in the Zakarpattia region confirmed that the group’s members were involved in the incident and said that the local police opened fire on them without warning.

In the meantime, Kiev has also to handle protests taking place in the capital with the people protesting high housing and public utilities prices, which have skyrocketed 88 percent since last year worsening an already difficult period for the Ukrainian people. Utility rates, including water and heating prices, have grown three-fold in Ukraine due to a rise in the price of gas since April 1, 2015. Electricity prices are being increased in accordance with a five-stage program, due to be completed by March 1, 2017. Amid the tension, Kiev has suspended Russian gas purchases after a breakdown in talks aimed at keeping supplies running for three to six months. It will be the second time in less than a year that Russian fuel supplies have stopped running to Ukraine. Moscow hiked prices after Kremlin-backed leader Viktor Yanukovych was ousted in February 2014.

In another wave of protests, about 1,000 Ukrainian pro-government fighters and far-right supporters have marched through the centre of the Ukrainian capital burning tyres and wearing balaclavas and demanding that the government ends the ceasefire accord and declare war on pro-Russian rebels in the east. Many in the rally were from volunteer battalions and were dressed in their battle fatigues. They said they had returned from fighting Russian forces and demanded an end to all diplomatic relations with Russia.

To the present the crisis in eastern Ukraine has resulted in over 6,400 people been killed since the start of Kiev’s “anti-terror operation” and the seizure of large parts in eastern Ukraine by the rebels. A total of 1.35 million Ukrainians are now designated as internally displaced persons, according to UN estimates. Five months after the Minsk II ceasefire accord that was destined to be the base for a viable and peaceful solution in Ukraine, it seems that peace is as far away as ever.

Death of Boris Nemtsov

Boris Nemtsov was a charismatic Russian opposition leader and sharp critic of Russian President, Vladimir Putin. He was deputy Prime Minister in the 1990s in the government of Boris Yeltsin where he gained a reputation as a leading liberal economic reformer, but at the same time that made him a tainted figure in the eyes of some Russians. He was one of the leaders of the rallies in the winter of 2011-2012 that became the biggest protests against Putin since he first rose into power. In the past, he had written multiple reports accusing Putin and his inner circle of alleged corruption, a move that made him one of the most high-profile enemies of Putin’s regime. His murder, on February 27, caused massive waves of internal and international criticism against the government and its alleged role in his death. Putin has been accused by the opposition of authoritarian methods that create an atmosphere of intolerance against any dissent, criticism or indication of free speech. There had been many instances where Nemtsov had criticized the Russian government’s inefficiency, rampant corruption and the Kremlin’s Ukraine policy, which has strained and complicated the relationship between Russia and the West in one of the most serious crises since the Cold War. Speaking on radio just a few hours before his death, he severely criticized Putin’s decisions regarding Ukraine and the subsequent crisis for Russia calling his actions in eastern Ukraine as ‘’mad, aggressive and deadly policy of war against Ukraine’’. At the same time, his killing came two days before he was due to lead an opposition rally in Moscow, a rally which was made clear by governmental sources that it was not welcome. Many sources, the Ukrainian President being among them, claim that Nemtsov was working on a report that would present evidence that he believed proved Russia’s direct involvement in the separatist rebellion that took place in eastern Ukraine and which has since created the conflict that has claimed more than 6,000 human lives. The Ukrainian government and the West have accused Russia in multiple instances of supporting the pro-Russian militants and providing them with troops and sophisticated weapons. Moscow has consistently denied these allegations.

After Nemtsov’s killing and the waves created in the political scene about a possible involvement of the current government, Putin addressed the people and stated that he will personally oversee the search for the perpetrators. On March 7, the Russian investigators in charge of the murder announced that, after arresting five suspects, they formally charged two men. They were identified as Anzor Gubashev and Zaur Dadayev, both from the North Caucasus. The authorities stated that one of them had ties to the Kremlin-backed leader of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov. Ramzan Kadyrov, the controversial and authoritarian head of Chechnya, defended one of the Chechens charged for the shooting. A day after he defended the alleged suspect, he was given the Order of Honour award for ‘’work achievements, strenuous social activities and long conscientious service’’ by Vladimir Putin, the same man that promised that he will see Nemtsov’s killers punished. Mr Kadyrov has also openly sided with the pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine and for Russia’s annexation of Crimea. He is known to have a powerful private militia under his payroll, called ‘’Kadyrovtsy’’. His army has been previously accused of torture, kidnappings and assassinations in Chechnya. Kadyrov gradually became a trusted ally of Putin, mainly due to the ruthless methods that he employed against armed Islamists in his region that helped the Russian government in its effort to stabilise the North Caucasus region in a period where Putin was trying to consolidate his presidency in Moscow. Kadyrov’s Sufi Muslim brotherhood, the Qadiriya, has been a traditional enemy of Russia, so it has raised suspicion that all of the sudden it has been turned into an ally for Putin against Islamists in the region. It is not the first time that Mr Kadyrov’s name has been linked with an assassination. His name started appearing on links with the Russian Federal Security Service in 2000, when Vladimir Putin became President. Since then, he has been accused by his critics for several assassinations, but his involvement has never been proved. Journalists and human rights campaigners, such as Anna Politkovskaya and Natalia Estemirova, after they went public with their accusations against Mr Kadyrov they were murdered and it has yet to be determined who ordered their assassination.

If one takes into account the multiple similar incidents that took place in Russia in the past then a pattern starts to arise. It creates a bad precedent, highlighting that political terror in Russia, in multiple instances it does not even require direction from the top. There is an evolving culture that commands that whoever does not conform with the existing ideas enforced by the government, needs to be silenced. Boris Nemtsov’s murder is another incident that if left unsolved it is going to be translated into a strong signal that terror is something to abide to, especially when it is so brazenly promoted by targeting a prominent opposition activist a block from the Kremlin. It is possible that Nemtsov’s murder points to three vulnerabilities of the Russian regime that Putin tries to obscure from becoming apparent. Firstly, the threat of popular protests against his leadership. Secondly, the civic opposition to military engagement of the conscription-based Russian army. Lastly, the failure of mass propaganda employed internally in Russia, aimed at convincing Russians there is no alternative to Putin’s regime. Being aware of these vulnerabilities, the question now is to what extent the Kremlin will employ political violence as a major tool of its dominance inside Russia.