Ukrainian Ceasefire Agreement
February 26, 2015 in UkraineThe leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany met in Minsk, Belarus on February 11 to negotiate a plan that could guarantee a lasting peace in eastern Ukraine. The new round of peace talks were viewed with much scepticism due to similar unsuccessful efforts in the past. The arrival of 2015 brought the collapse of the tenuous ceasefire that took hold in Ukraine on September 5, 2014, which had brought a lull to fighting that had raged for nearly five months and which killed over 2,500 people. Despite the fact that an official ceasefire was in place the violations started within days of signing after multiple reports that claimed that near the big coastal city of Mariupol and Donetsk airport intense fights took place between the Ukrainian forces and the pro-Russian militants. Officially, the ceasefire collapsed after five months on January 2015. The fact that the ceasefire was considerably fragile became more apparent when the head of the self-styled Luhansk People’s Republic declared that the ceasefire agreement does not mean that their objective to secede from Ukraine is off the table. The short-lived ceasefire coincided with the conclusion of the NATO summit in Wales, where Western leaders announced the creation of a rapid-response force to protect eastern European member states. During the summit several NATO members promised precision weapon systems to Ukraine and the Obama administration pledged $60 million of non-lethal military aid for Ukraine’s military. Under these circumstances it is not difficult to comprehend Russia’s reservedness to stick to the agreement and the final collapse of the ceasefire in January 2015. After the collapse of the ceasefire the battles between the government forces and the separatists resumed full force.
During the weeks-long surge in violence many soldiers and civilians lost their lives and all the peace talks collapsed before they came into an agreement with the two sides accusing each other of sabotaging the talks. Amid the increasingly heavy fighting in eastern Ukraine, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande, abruptly announced a summit with the Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, Russia. The French and German leaders had previously met the Ukrainian President, Petro Poroshenko, in Kiev where they discussed the steps necessary for the Minsk agreement to start working towards a peaceful resolution of the crisis. The increase in diplomatic efforts came as the US secretary of state, John Kerry, also met the Ukrainian President and other top officials in Kiev. The meeting between the leaders of Russia, France and Germany was held on February 6 behind closed doors and discussed a paper with peace proposal details that the two Western leaders brought with them in Moscow. The meeting was followed by a phone conference between the three leaders that took place on February 8 and which led to the Minsk peace talks on February 11. The marathon peace negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany resulted in a new ceasefire deal for eastern Ukraine. During the negotiations heavy fighting took place in an effort from the two fighting sides to gain as much territory as possible in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions before the ceasefire started. The key points of the ceasefire agreement for eastern Ukraine are:
- Immediate and full bilateral ceasefire. The ceasefire was going to take effect in parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions from 00:00 local time on 15 February.
- Withdrawal of all heavy weapons by both sides. That entails the creation of a buffer zone of at least 50km equally separating both sides for artillery systems of 100mm calibre or more; 70km for multiple rocket systems and 140 km for the heaviest rocket and missile systems such as Tornado, Uragan, Smerch and Tochka. Also, the Ukrainian forces have to withdraw all the heavy weapons from the current frontline. The separatists have to withdraw theirs from the line of 19 September 2014. According to the agreement, heavy weapons withdrawal must start no later than day two of the ceasefire and be completed within two weeks of February 15. The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) will assist in the process.
- Effective monitoring and verification regime for the ceasefire and withdrawal of heavy weapons. This part of the agreement is going to be carried out by the OSCE from day one, using all necessary technology such as satellites and radar.
- From day one of the withdrawal begin a dialogue on the holding of local elections. In line with the Ukrainian law on temporary self-rule for parts of Donetsk and Luhansk. There will also be a dialogue on those areas’ political future.
- Pardon and amnesty by banning any prosecution of figures involved in the Donetsk and Luhansk conflict.
- Release of all hostages and other illegally detained people. On the basis of ‘’all for all’’. To be completed at the latest on the fifth day after the military withdrawal.
- Unimpeded delivery of humanitarian aid to the needy, internationally supervised. In eastern Ukraine a humanitarian crisis currently takes place as the Ukrainian government stopped sending medical aid in these areas.
- Restoration of full social and economic links with affected areas. Including social transfers, such as payment of pensions. To that end, Ukraine will restore its banking services in districts affected by the conflict.
- Full Ukrainian government control will be restored over the state border, throughout the conflict zone. To begin on the first day after local elections and be completed after a comprehensive political settlement by the end of 2015. The local elections in rebel-controlled Donetsk and Luhansk regions will be based on Ukrainian law and constitutional reform.
- Withdrawal of all foreign armed groups, weapons and mercenaries from Ukrainian territory. This part of the agreement is going to be monitored by OSCE. All illegal groups are going to be disarmed.
- Constitutional reform in Ukraine, with adoption of a new constitution by the end of 2015. A key element of which will be decentralisation and adoption of permanent laws on the special status of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
The ceasefire agreement was also signed by the two main rebel leaders, from Donetsk and Luhansk. The agreement includes an annex on the detail of the autonomy foreseen for their fiefdoms. To the present more than 5,000 people have been killed due to the fighting. The Ukrainian President has claimed publicly that if this new effort for ceasefire and a peaceful solution to the crisis fails then he will not hesitate to introduce martial law, not only in eastern Ukraine but in the whole country. Introduction of martial law means that Ukraine’s army get to control the streets and impose curfews, ban parties and other organisations, as well as mass gatherings, conduct searches and introduce censorship. It is also permitted to claim property of businesses and private individual if the need arise. Despite the ceasefire there are reports that the fighting in eastern Ukraine continues. Days after the official commence of the ceasefire there were reports about government’s and separatists’ shelling in several areas, including around the rebel-held city of Donetsk, claiming that the ceasefire exists in name only. The shelling was also confirmed by OSCE who is charged with monitoring ceasefire. The ceasefire breaches were also reported during a new meeting between the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany on February 19 where they reconfirmed their support on the measures agreed on February 12 in Minsk. Only four days after the ceasefire came into effect the pro-Russia militants ignored the agreement and stormed Debaltseve, a strategic town in eastern Ukraine that they had surrounded, forcing thousands of government troops to flee. The Ukrainian forces suffered major losses, both in equipment and human life. After these incidents the Ukrainian President won approval from Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council to invite UN-mandated peacekeepers into the country to monitor the front line, a decision that was met with strident opposition from the pro-Russian militants.
With the battle around the rail hub of Debaltseve ending with the withdrawal of Ukrainian government forces and completion of the first prisoners’ exchange on February 21, there are some hopes that the tenuous truce in eastern Ukraine may hold. A new round of meetings to stop the fragile ceasefire from shattering have started with the foreign ministers of Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany meeting in Paris on February 24 to review the situation on the ground since the accord was signed. Despite the efforts and Russia’s statements that the agreement is ‘’an international legal document’’ approved by the UN Security Council it contains some clauses that reinforce its fragility, such as Ukraine’s obligation to resume pension payments to the inhabitants of the Russia-backed regions despite the economic crisis that it faces. Also, Kiev takes on the border of rebuilding the war-ravaged region shouldering a huge economic burden. Additionally, the agreement establishes the right of the Donbass breakaway areas to establish their own people’s militias. Finally, through the agreement a powerful fifth column is created inside Ukraine as the Donbass will have the right to be represented in Ukraine’s legislature. This could enable Russia to use the Donbass to resurrect Russian ‘’soft power’’ in the context of Ukraine’s post-conflict economic crisis. The ceasefire agreement is a remarkable effort to find a solution but it seems to serve more in the creation of a frozen conflict than a viable base for the peaceful resolve the Ukrainian crisis.
Kidnappings in CAR Possibly Linked to Recent Arrest of Vigilante Leader
January 20, 2015 in Central Africa RepublicArmed men kidnapped a female United Nations employee in the capital city on Tuesday, just one day after two aid workers were seized.
According to a source within the UN’s MINUSCA force in the Central African Republic (CAR), gunmen on Tuesday seized a female UN employee from a van that was taking UN staffers to work in Bangui. A statement released by the UN MINUSCA force has since confirmed the kidnapping, stating “unidentified armed men kidnapped on Tuesday a woman who works for MINUSCA after having stopped the vehicle in which she was travelling. A similar kidnap attempt failed just a bit earlier.” Tuesday’s kidnapping reportedly involves gunmen who appear to be linked to the mainly Christian anti-balaka militia. The abduction comes a day after a French charity worker and a man were seized in an area of the capital city that is controlled by anti-balaka fighters. Both kidnappings appear to be linked to the recent arrest of a vigilante leader.
On Monday, two people, including a 67-year-old French woman working for a Catholic medical charity, were kidnapped in the CAR. It is believed that the second hostage is a local man connected with the charity.
According to on the ground sources, a vehicle carrying the two was stopped by armed men in the capital city Bangui, with the militants later driving off with the hostages. According to the driver of the vehicle, Brother Elkana Ndawatcha, “the three of us were coming from Damara (north of Bangui)…when we were stopped by a group of four anti-balaka (militiamen) armed with Kalashnikovs in the middle of the city…They let me go after they robbed me of my mobile telephone, my bank documents and my money,” adding “one of them took my place at the wheel and took my colleagues deeper into Boy-Rabe district,” referring to one of the militia’s strongholds in the northeastern region of Bangui. Sources have revealed that the kidnappers, who are from the mainly Christian anti-balaka militia, were angry over the recent arrest of one of their leaders.
The CAR national secretary of Catholic Charity Caritas, Abby Elysee Guendjiande, confirmed the kidnapping, stating “when we called…(the French woman’s) telephone later the kidnappers picked up and said: ‘Release our General Andjilo and we will liberate the hostages.” The French government has condemned the kidnapping and has called for the unidentified woman to be freed immediately. The French embassy in Bangui is in contact with the city’s archbishop, who has been holding talks with the kidnappers.
Both kidnappings come just days after the CAR’s senior prosecutor announced that UN peacekeepers had arrested a senior leader, Rodrigue Nagibona, also known as General Andjilo, of the anti-balaka militia.
Prosecutors in the CAR disclosed Sunday that a power vigilante leader, accused of masterminding a massacre of some 300 minority Muslims in December 2013, has been arrested. According to prosecutors, UN Peacekeepers arrested General Andjilo, who had been on the run for several months, on Saturday in the north-western region of the country. A judicial source disclosed Sunday that a Cameroonian contingent of the UN force, MINUSCA, arrested Andjilo in the town of Bouca after a fire fight with “his men.” Maurice Dibert-Dollet, Bangui’s general prosecutor, confirmed the arrest, stating, “General Andjilo is wanted for multiple alleged crimes including killings, rebellion, illegal possession of weapons of war, criminal association, rape and pillage.” General Andjilo is associated with an attack on a MINUSCA convoy in October 2014 that left one Pakistani soldier dead.
France Seeks Answers as Security Boosted Across the Country
January 12, 2015 in FranceOn Monday, France mobilized 10,000 troops to boost security across the country in the wake of last week’s deadly attacks. The increased security comes as more information on the attackers and their links to terrorist organizations surfaces. Questions are mounting as to how the attackers slipped through the intelligence services’ net. French authorities are now carrying out an investigation into last week’s attacks.
Security Boosted Across France
France on Monday announced an unprecedented deployment of thousands of troops and police in order to boost security at “sensitive” sites across the country. At an emergency security meeting, Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian announced “we have decided…to mobilize 10,000 men to protect sensitive sites in the whole country from tomorrow (Tuesday) evening,” adding “this is the first time that our troops have been mobilized to such an extent on our soil.” Close to 5,000 police officers will also be deployed to guard 700 Jewish schools as well as places of worship. France’s alert level on Monday remained at its highest possible as French officials sought security answers.
The increased security presence comes as a French police source reported Saturday that law enforcement officers across France have been told to erase their social media presence and to carry their weapons at all times because terror sleeper cells have been activated over the last 24 hours in the country. According to the source, Amedy Coulibaly, a suspect killed Friday during the deadly hostage siege at a kosher market, had reportedly made several phone calls regarding the targeting of police officers in France. Saturdays’ development was just one of several as France begins to investigate a possible major intelligence failure.
Investigations into Intelligence Failures
France on Monday turned its attention to sealing security holes that have been blamed for failing to prevent the deadliest terrorist attack on the country in half a century. Last week’s attacks were a major intelligence failure, but they have also demonstrated how this new style of terrorism is proving to be a challenge for even the best intelligence agencies.
President Francois Hollande will chair a crisis meeting with cabinet ministers on Monday in order to discuss security measures after the shootings raised questions about how the attackers were able to slip from the radar of French intelligence services. Reports surfaced Saturday that brothers Cherif and Said Kouachi had been under watch by French officials, however that several despite red flags, authorities there lost interest in them. French Prime Minister Manuel Valls has admitted that there were “clear failings” after it emerged that brothers Said, 34, and Cherif Kouachi, 32, had been on a US terror watch list “for years. Both brothers, as well as Amedy Coulibaly, 32, had a history of extremism and were known to French intelligence.
Said was known to have travelled to Yemen in 2011, where he received weapons training from al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). French authorities had placed him under surveillance in November 2011 however they terminated this surveillance in June 2014 when French security services deemed him no longer dangerous. According to a senior Yemeni national security official, Said Kouachi entered Yemen multiple times with an officially issued visa. According to the official, “Said was not being watched during the duration of his stay in Yemen because he was not on the watch list,” adding that at the time, Yemen’s Western allies had not raised concerns about him. His brother Cherif was also a known jihadist who was convicted in 2008 of being involved in a network sending fighters to Iraq. While French intelligence officials believe that there is a strong possibility that Cherif also travelled to Yemen for a short trip in 2011, separately from his brother, surveillance of Cherif was terminated at the end of 2013 when his phone calls suggested that he had disengaged with violent extremism and was instead focused on counterfeiting clothing and shoes. Meanwhile Amedy Coulibaly was a repeat criminal offender who had been convicted for extremist Islamist activity. French prosecutors have indicated that Coulibaly, who killed four people at a kosher market on Friday, was also involved in the shooting of a jogger near Paris on Wednesday, the day of the attack on a magazine that kicked off the terror spree. Prosecutors have indicated that they have linked shell cases found in the eastern Paris town of Fontenay-aux-Roses, where the jogger was shot and severely wounded, to a Tokarev gun that Coulibaly carried at the kosher market on Friday.
News that all three suspects were known to French intelligence also came as a video circulated on the Internet on Sunday depicting a man appearing to be Coulibaly pledging allegiance to Islamic State and its self-proclaimed caliph, Abu Bakr al-baghdadi. In the video, Coulibaly, who appears in front of a small Islamic State flag, indicated that he synchronized his actions with the Kouachi brothers. In the video, he is seen exercising outdoors near a brick building, followed by shots of automatic weapons, pistols and ammunition laid out on a wooden floor. Coulibaly also describes the Charlie Hebdo attackers as his “brothers” and states that he gave them money to finish purchasing supplies. Sources have indicated that Islamic State is responsible for releasing the video, which adds further evidence of a possible connection between the terrorist attacks and the radical terrorist group that has taken over large areas of land in Syria and Iraq. Coulibaly’s mother and sisters have condemned his actions, stating, “we hope there will not be any confusion between these odious acts and the Muslim religion.”
US on Alert
On Monday, the New York City Police Department along with other law enforcement personnel responded to a threat from ISIS after someone re-released a September 2014 message that tells followers to “rise up and kill intelligence offices, police offices, soldiers and civilians.” Officials in the US however have noted that they are currently not aware of any specific threats to the US.
Also on Monday, Turkey’s state-run Anatolian News Agency citied Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu stating that the wanted partner of one of the gunmen behind the terror attack in France, was in Turkey five days before the killings, adding that she crossed the border into Syria on 8 January.
In the wake of the two hostage crises on Friday, French authorities launched a search for 26-year-old Hayat Boumeddiene after French anti-terrorist police killed her partner Amedy Coulibaly. On its website, Anatolian cited Turkey’s Foreign Minister as stating in an interview that she had arrived in Istanbul from Madrid on 2 January. According to Cavusoglu, “there is footage (of her) at the airport. Later on, she stayed at a hotel with another person and crossed into Syria on January 8. We can tell that based on telephone records.” Cavusoglu stated that the 26-year-old, who married Coulibaly in an Islamic ceremony, stayed at a hotel in Kadikoy in Istanbul and was accompanied by another person. She then moved onto the south-eastern Turkish city of Sanliurfa and then to Syria however Turkish authorities have not clarified whether she travelled to Syria on her own. Contrary to earlier speculation that she had been involved in the Paris killings, those dates would effectively put Boumeddiene in Turkey before the attacks in Paris, leaving for Syria while the attackers were still on the loose. Cavusoglu indicated that as soon as Turkey had determined the whereabouts of Boumeddiene, it passed the information to French authorities. Interior Minister Efkan Ala has indicated that Turkey received no request to deny access to Boumeddiene, stating “the entry of individuals to Turkey could be blocked based on information from the originating countries saying this person’s entry could be problematic.” Sources have indicated that Turkey did not arrest Boumeddiene because of a lack of timely intelligence from France. While western countries have long accused Turkey of not doing enough to stem the flow of jihadists who are seeking to join Islamic State fighters in neighbouring Syria, Ankara has insisted that it has now stepped up frontier security, noting that the West also has a responsibility to share intelligence.
Manhunt Underway in Paris After Gunmen Attack Magazine Office
January 7, 2015 in FranceFrench officials have confirmed that twelve people have been killed and eleven injured after gunmen attacked the Paris office of French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo. Police have launched a major operation in the Paris area in their hunt for the attackers who escaped shortly after the attack. While police officials have not yet commented on the incident, sources have reported that this attack may stem for the magazine’s recent tweet, which depicted a cartoon of the Islamic State militant group leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. The tweet came shortly after the Islamic State threatened to attack France. The satirical weekly magazine has in the past been targeted for its irreverent take on news and current affairs. French President Francois Hollande is currently at the scene and is planning to hold an emergency cabinet meeting.
The office of Charlie Hebdo, located in Paris’ 11th arrondissement, was attacked at about midday on Wednesday. The attack occurred as staff members were attending their weekly editorial meeting. An eyewitness has reported “two black-hooded men entered the building with Kalashnikovs…a few minutes later we heard lots of shot.” Sources have reported that the two gunmen were wearing black balaclavas, khaki ammunition pouches and were armed with Kalashnikovs and a rocket-propelled grenade. They were heard shouting “Allahu Akbar.” Sources have indicated that three men, described by a police union spokesman as “commandos,” are currently on the run. They fled in a getaway car that was driven by a fourth suspect shortly after a shootout in the street with police officers.
Officials have confirmed that twelve people have been killed. Two of those killed are police officers while the remaining are journalists. One source has reported that some of the magazine’s cartoonists, including the editor in chief and graphic artist, are among the dead. Five of those wounded are critically injured and officials have warned that the death toll may increase in the coming hours. Speaking to reporters at the scene, French President Francois Hollande indicated that there was no doubt that this was a terrorist attack “of exceptional barbarity.” The president is due to give a televised address this evening at 8 PM Paris time. Both the White House and UK Prime Minister David Cameron have condemned the attack in Paris.
In the wake of this attack, France has reinforced security at places of worship, shops, media offices and transportation. France’s security level has now been raised to the highest alert. Police have also warned French media to be on alert and to pay attention to security following this attack. Wednesday’s attack ranks as one of the deadliest attacks on Paris since 1995, when a bomb exploded at the Saint-Michel subway station, killing eight.
France was already on high alert for Islamist attacks after several incidents occurred just before Christmas. Cars were driven at shoppers in two cities, Dijon and Nantes, and police officials were attacked by a man wielding a knife in the central town of Joue-les-Tours. While at the time the French government denied that the attacks were linked, officials later announced plans to further raise security in public spaces, including the deployment of around 300 soldiers.
Threats Failed to Silence Magazine
The office of Charlie Hebdo magazine in central Paris have been targeted in the past over the magazine’s controversial content.
In the early morning hours of 2 November 2011, the paper’s office was fire-bombed just hours after an issue featuring a cartoon of the Prophet Mohammed, in which the religious figure was listed as “editor-in-chief.” The provocative move was not unusual for the magazine, which for the past several decades has been making fun of politics and religion.
In 1969, just one year after its launch, the magazine was banned by the Minister of the Interior after it mocked the media coverage of the death of former French president Charles de Gaulle. The paper, which was then known as Hara-Kiri Hebdo, later changed its name in order to sidestep the ban. While the magazine folded in 1981, it was reborn in 1992, with the first edition selling 100,000 copies. The magazine has on several occasions been warned over its publications. In 2006, then French President Jacques Chirac warned “over provocations’ of other religions should be avoided. The warning came after the paper’s front page depicted a cartoon of a weeping Prophet Mohammed. The magazine has not only targeted Islam, but other religions as well. In 2008, accusations of anti-Semitism were laid against a veteran cartoonist who was later fired. In September 2012, in the aftermath of attacks on US embassies in the Middle East, the magazine published more satirical cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed. That publication resulted in security being increased at several French embassies and riot police being stationed outside the paper’s office in order to ensure security.
Concerns of Copycat Attacks in France after Twenty People Left Injured in Three Separate Incidents
December 24, 2014 in UncategorizedOn Tuesday, French Prime Minister Manuel Valls sought to ease fears across the country after a recent spate of attacks. The French government has urged the public to remain vigilant as authorities carry out investigations. President Francois Hollande has called an emergency cabinet meeting for Tuesday and has urged the public not to panic. While it appears that French authorities are playing down the idea that there is a pattern behind these three incidents, many are asking whether there is a copycat element to them.
It began on Saturday, when a man in the central town of Joue-les-Tours stabbed three police officers before being shot dead. Bertrand Nzohabonayo was shot dead after he entered the police station armed with a knife and seriously wounded three officers. Mr Nzohabonayo had previously committed petty offences however he was not on a domestic intelligence watch list. According to a source, his brother is known for his radical views and once pondered travelling to Syria. French anti-terrorism investigators have opened an inquiry into the attack.
Two other incidents followed Saturday’s attack. On Sunday, a driver shouting “Allahu Akbar” (God is Great) ploughed his vehicle into pedestrians, injuring thirteen people in the city of Dijon. The prosecutor has since indicated that the attacker had a long history of mental illness and that the incident is not linked to terrorism. The latest attack occurred Monday, when ten people were injured after a van drove into a Christmas market in the western city of Nantes. The attack occurred around 19:00 local time (1800 GMT), with witnesses reporting that the van drove into a stall that was selling mulled wine. After the vehicle came to a halt, the driver stabbed himself in the chest several times, causing himself serious injuries. French interior minister spokesman Pierre-Henry Brandet has indicated that the motive behind the attack is currently unclear.
While concerns that these attacks may be copycat incidents have spread across France, Prime Minister Valls indicated Tuesday that there was “no link” between these three incidents, adding that security forces are dealing with individuals who were acting alone. According to Mr Valls, “we do not minimise these acts,” adding that the government wants to “reassure” the public and understand what had happened.
On Monday, Burundi authorities disclosed that they have arrested the brother of the man who was fatally shot in Joue-les-Tours. Burundi’s National Intelligence Services confirmed that Brice Nzohabonayo was detained in the capital Bujumbura shortly after his brother Bertrand attacked a police station. Burundi’s intelligence service is currently working with its French counterpart, with sources reporting that investigators are now seeking to establish if any attacks are being planned in Burundi as the country is a contributor to the African Union (AU) force that is currently battling al-Shabaab in Somalia. Paris prosecutor Francois Molins also announced Monday that the suspect’s sister had been taken into custody on Saturday, adding that she would soon be released as there are no elements suggesting her complicity.
The three incidents in France come as governments around the world brace for so-called “lone wolf” attacks, which are carried out by individuals who are returning from waging jihad abroad, or who are simply following calls for violence made by Islamic State (IS).