Understanding Events in Ukraine

What started as a domestic political and economic dispute in November 2013 has escalated into an event with international implications. Upheaval in Ukraine began in November when pro-Russian president Victor Yanukovych’s government decided to abandon closer ties with the EU in favour of Russia (see timeline below). Protests against this move swelled, culminating in last week’s decision by Ukraine’s parliament to foribly eject former pro-Russian President Victor Yanukovych and to install a coalition government. Moscow has not recognised the interim government which took power on 26 February.

In fact, Since last week, Russian troops have been consolidating their hold on Crimea, home to Russia’s naval base on the  Black Sea. On Friday, Putin’s government authorised use of Russian military forces within Ukraine to “protect the lives of Russian citizens there.” Interim President Olexander Turchynov, only a week into new role, has issued full military mobilisation of Ukrainian forces in response. Western forces have condemned Russia’s moves; US Secretary of State John Kerry has warned Russia that these actions could case the nation to be ejected from the Group of Eight (G8) developed nations. Moscow has not heeded calls to return troops to their stations.

Further complicating matters, on Sunday the newly appointed head of Ukraine’s navy, Rear Admiral Denys Berezovsky, swore allegiance to Crimea and its unrecognised pro-Russian leader, pledging to “strictly obey the orders of the supreme commander of the autonomous republic of Crimea” and “defend the lives and freedom” of Crimea’s people. Berezovsky said 1 March would go down in history as the birthday of the “navy of the autonomous republic of Crimea”. He held his Ukrainian post for only one day before being fired and charged with treason.

The Ukrainan issue is not a “cut and dry” matter. Ukraine, which literally translates to “Borderland”, is a nation with two distinct but powerful identities. There are 45 million people living in Ukraine; in the west, the Ukrainian population largely identifies as ethnic Ukrainian, or European. In the eastern part, the population identifies largely as ethnic Russian. The 2010 Ukrainian election was heavily divided between these two regions.  The eventual winner of the election was Viktor Yanukovych, who hailed from the Donetsk Oblast province of eastern Ukraine. Citizens in western Ukraine were dissatisfied with the results, perceiving Yanukovych as a corrupt leader.

Economic Slowdown

Yanukovych’s image worsened in the face of Ukraine’s stunted economy, which has particularly weak over the last two years. The nation’s GDP in 2013 was 0%; in 2012 it was 0.2%. Industrial production fell by 5 percent due to decreases in demand for steel and engineering exports and Ukraine’s energy inefficiency. The unemployment rate is approximately 7.5 percent. There is a shortage of skilled workers; many college graduates are unemployed or underemployed. Insufficient income and an unstable economic environment have resulted in mass migration of skilled and unskilled workers. This resource drain is exacerbated by one of the fastest aging populations in Europe. At the current rate of aging and migration, the workforce is expected to shrink by at least 15% over the next 20 years. Since 24 December, Ukrainian currency (the hryvnia) has dropped 15%. In early January, the National Bank of Ukraine limited individual purchases of foreign currency, and imposed a waiting period of six days on companies purchasing foreign currency.

Yanukovych, hoping to strengthen the stalled economy, met with the EU in November to develop an agreement which would open borders to goods and set the stage for travel restrictions to be eased. However, he backed out of the agreement, citing that the EU’s offer would not be enough to stimulate the economy, and that Ukraine could not afford to sacrifice trade with Russia.

Crimea

Russia has been particularly eager to assist Ukraine because of its interests in one particular region of the nation. The Crimean Peninsula, which rests between the Sea of Azov on the east and the Black Sea on the west, is home to Russia’s Black Sea naval fleet, Russia’s only warm water port. The desirable region is known for producing tobacco and wine, and its warm climate has made it a thriving tourist area with many seaside resorts. The peninsula has been invaded and occupied as far back as the 7^th century.

In February 1954, Crimea was gifted to Ukraine from Nikita Khrushchev to mark the 300th anniversary of Ukraine becoming a part of the Russian Empire. When the gift was given, the region was still under Soviet control. However, after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia found itself with a naval base in an independent nation, causing long-term tensions between the two nations since. Despite negotiations leading to Russia’s lease of the naval port, Russia has not been pleased with terms of their lease, or their reliance on a foreign nation to host their port. The annexation of Crimea would greatly benefit Russia.

Citizens of Crimea largely identify with Russia as well. Crimea’s population is nearly 60% ethnic Russian, 24% Ukrainian, and 12% Tartar. The dominant Russian population is wary of pro-Western leadership in Kiev. Following the removal of pro-Russian president Yanukovych last week, residents have called for the autonomous republic to secede from the rest of Ukraine.

It is unlikely that Russia will give up the opportunity to annex Crimea. Democratic options do not seem likely to be successful. While the standoff between Russia, the Ukraine, the EU and the US is complicated, this complex shift also affects other parts of the world. On Wednesday, Russia’s defence minister announced that Russia would expand its military projection abroad, including in Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua. In January, Russia docked a spy ship in Cuba. In the Middle East the fallout could particularly affect Syria, which relies on Russia’s support to maintain the Assad government.

TIMELINE OF UKRAINE UPRISING

November

21 November: President Yanukovych’s cabinet announces it will abandon an agreement to strengthen trade ties with the EU, opting to seek closer co-operation with Russia. Protests begin that same night.

December

8 December: The number of protesters surpasses 800,000. Demonstrators occupy Kiev City Hall and Independence Square

January 2014

16 January: Ukraine’s parliament passes restrictive anti-protest laws.

22 January: Three people are killed, in clashes with security forces, the first since the start of the unrest.

23 January: After his reported abduction, the body of prominent activist Yuriy Verbytsky is found in a forest.

24 January: Protestors storm regional government offices in Western Ukraine.

28 January: Prime Minister Mykola Azarov resigns. Parliament annuls anti-protest laws.

February

14 February: All 234 protesters who have been arrested are released. Charges against them remain.

16 February: Protesters temporarily evacuate Kiev City Hall and other public buildings. A day later, arrested protesters are granted amnesty.

18 February: At least 18 people are killed, including seven policemen. Protesters re-take Kiev’s City Hall. Riot police encircle Independence Square, which contains nearly 25,000 protesters.

20 February: From the 18^th to 20^th, the death toll from clashes reaches 77, with hundreds injured. Three European Union foreign ministers are dispatched to Ukraine broker a deal.

21 February: France, Germany, and Poland broker a compromise between the government and opposition leaders. The deal involves a new national unity government, constitutional changes, and early elections, to be held by December. In western Ukraine, protesters defiantly continue to occupy government, refusing to recognise Kiev authorities.

22 February: Demonstrators take control of presidential administration buildings. Opposition leaders call for elections on 25 May. President Yanukovych is missing; believed to have fled to Kharkiv. Parliament votes to remove him from power, setting new elections for 25 May. In a televised appearance, Yanukovych denounces the “coup d’etat”.

23 February: Olexander Turchynov is named interim president. Turchynov gives MPs until 25 February to form a new unity government. A day later, an arrest warrant is issued for Yanukovych.

26 February: The proposed new coalition government is revealed. The acting interior minister disbands elite Berkut police unit, blamed for deaths of protesters. Rival protests are held in Crimea.

27 February: In the Crimean capital, Simferopol, pro-Russian gunmen seize key buildings. The gunmen raise a Russian flag outside the Simferopol regional parliament building.

28 February: Unidentified gunmen, appear outside Crimea’s main airports. Interior Minister Arsen Avakov declares the move an “armed invasion” by Russia.

 Speaking from a news conference in Russia, Yanukovych insists he is still president and will oppose any military intervention or division of Ukraine. Ukraine’s central bank limits daily foreign currency cash withdrawals to the equivalent of 15,000 hryvnia (£820).

March

1 March: Russian parliament approves Vladimir Putin’s request to use Russian forces across Ukraine. Ukraine’s acting President Olexander Turchynov puts his army on full alert. Pro-Russian rallies take place in several Ukrainian cities outside Crimea. US President Barack Obama urges Putin to pull forces back to bases in Crimea. Putin says Moscow reserves the right to protect its interests and those of ethnic Russians.

Tagged as: Black Sea, Crimea, Russia, Ukraine, United States, Victor Yanukovych, Vladimir Putin

Security At Sochi

With the 2014 Olympic Games set to open in Sochi, Russia in two days, questions relating to security, and Russia’s ability to thwart further terrorist attacks, continue to be the main focus as thousands of spectators, media officials and sportsmen begin to descend on the Black Sea region.  Dubbed “Putin’s Games,” anticipation surrounding the upcoming Games has shared headline’s with issues of security and the region’s recent history of unrest and the potential of violence targeting spectators and athletes.

A week before the official opening of the Games, United States government officials issued a warning that more terrorist attacks in Russia were “very likely to occur” in the run-up to, or during, the Winter Olympics in Sochi, where eight-eight countries will be competing.  An official assessment of the threat has indicated that a Caucasus group, Imarat Kavakaz (IK), poses the main danger to the Games, which will occur on Russia’s Black Sea coast.  According to the threat assessment, this Caucasus group has repeatedly expressed a desire to target the Sochi Games.  On one such occurrence in July 2013, the group’s fugitive leader, Emir Doku Umarove, called on his followers to do what they could in order to disrupt the games.  Islamist militants from Dagestan, and nearby republics of Ingushetia and Chechnya, are also considered by officials in Moscow to be a major threat to the Games.

Recent Terrorist Attacks

Over the past few months, anticipation for the opening of the Games has been overshadowed by continuing questions relating to the safety and security of athletes and spectators in the wake of a number of suicide bombings and attacks.

In December 2013, thirty-four people were killed in two separate explosions that were carried out by suicide bombers in the southern Russian city of Volgograd.  The two bombings occurred just months after another suicide bombing targeted a bus in the city and just two days after a car bomb killed three people in the southern city of Pyatigorsk on 27 December.  Pyatigorsk lies 270 km (170 miles) east of Sochi.

On 29 December, a suicide bombing took place at the Volgorad-1 station in the city of Volograd, which is situated in the Volograd Oblast of Southern Russia.  The blast killed eighteen people and injured forty-four.  The attack, which occurred around 12:45 PM Moscow Time, was carried out near the metal detectors by the entrance of the station.  A day later, on the morning of 30 December at about 8:30 AM Moscow Time in the Dzerzhinsky district in Volograd, a bombing targeted the No. 1233 trolleybus of route 15A, which connects a suburb to Volograd’s downtown area.  The explosion occurred as the trolleybus passed one of the city’s main markets.  The attack killed sixteen people and injured forty-one.   The two bombings occurred just two months after a suicide bomber set off explosives on a bus.  The attack, which occurred in October, killed six people and injured another thirty.  It was also the first incident to occur outside the North Caucasus region after Chechen rebel leader Doku Umarov called for a resumption of attacks on civilians, and urged militants to target the Sochi Games.

In January 2014, Russian investigators announced that they believed the perpetrators of the two Volograd bombings in late December were two men who arrived in the city from the North Caucasus region.  A video posted on 19 January, by a group calling itself Vilayat Dagestan, depicted what appeared to be the bombers donning explosive belts and brandishing weapons.  During the video, the two men warned President Vladimir Putin to expect a “present” at the Olympics.

At the end of January 2014, Russia’s National Anti-Terrorist Committee (NAK) announced the identities of two suicide bombers responsible for killing two people in the Volograd.  According to the NAK, Asker Samedov and Suleyman Magomedov were members of a group based in the town of Buynaksk, officials further noted that two men suspected of helping the terrorists were arrested in Dagestan.

Despite the arrests, threats of further attacks have continued and Russian police announced in late January that they were hunting for other suspects, including a woman whom they fear may be planning to carry out a suicide bomb attack during the Games.  Police officials in Sochi put up wanted posters in hostels around the town.  The woman, 23-year-old Ruzana Ibragimova, from Dagestan in the North Caucasus region, is believed to be the widow of an Islamist militant.  Officials in Russia believe that despite tight security, she entered Sochi earlier this month.  Other police posters have indicated that at least two other potential female suicide bombers are also at large.

Several national Olympic associations have also reported receiving emails threatening athletes with attacks.  A statement by the International Olympic Committee (IOC) indicated that the email appeared to be “a random message from a member of the public,” adding that it posed no threat.  Officials at the British Olympic Association indicated that they “receive correspondence of every type and it is not uncommon to come across something like this that lacks credibility.  While the IOC and national bodies, have widely dismissed such emails, deeming them as not credible, the threat of an attack during the Games remains real.

Security

Since the December bombings, officials in Russia launched a massive security operation to provide security for the Winter Olympic Games.  Despite growing international concerns and scrutiny of Russia’s ability to thwart such attacks, officials in Russia have ensured those travelling to Sochi, that security is their upmost priority, as the country will host the largest event since the fall of the Soviet Union.

After the deadly suicide bombings in Volograd, Russia launched one of the largest security operations in Olympic history.  More than 30,000 police and interior ministry troops have been deployed, while access to Sochi and the Olympic area has been limited.  According to Emergency Situations Minister Vladimir Puchkov, “starting 7 January, all divisions responsible for ensuring the guests’ security at the Games are being put on combat alert,” adding that “every facility will be put under protection and a space-based monitoring system will be launched.”

Russian officials have established two security zones to protect the Games.  A “controlled zone,” located near the Olympic venues, will limit access to people with tickets and proof of identity, while another “forbidden zone” will be in place in large areas around Sochi.  Vehicles not registered locally, and which do not have special accreditation, will be banned from the city.  The sale of firearms, explosives and ammunition will also be prohibited.  Airport-style security is in force for commuters using local trains.  Hundreds of volunteers will also body-search all passengers at each station.  Two US warships will be on standby in the Black Sea when the Games begin on 7 February.  Washington has also offered to supply Russia with hi-tech equipment in order to help detect improvised explosives.

Despite this, security concerns remains.  On Wednesday, Australian Olympic team chef de mission Ian Chesterman announced that team members were banned from travelling into Sochi city as a security precaution.  A statement issued by Australian Olympic team officials indicated that athletes will be limited to locations within the security perimeters of the Olympic Park and sporting complexes within the mountain zone.  In response, IOC spokesman Mark Adams stated that while the recommendation to avoid Sochi city had not come from the IOC, “we believe that security is being handled very well.”

With the Winter Olympics now being a prime target for terror attacks, Moscow has had no choice but to ensure the maximum possible security in Sochi.  However the suicide bombings in Volograd have demonstrated that Russia’s security problem extends beyond the Black Sea region, and will likely continue after the conclusion of the Games on 23 February.  The recent terror attacks have demonstrated that terror groups can strike anywhere.  However while it is difficult to secure an Olympic city, it is almost impossible to secure the whole country.  And while the eyes of the world will focus on Sochi for the next few weeks, and will likely scrutinize what are set to be the most expensive Olympic Games, once the Olympic flame is extinguished, officials and authorities in Russia will have to turn their focus onto the North Caucasus region and the area’s history of instability.

Tagged as: Black Sea, Chechnya, Dagestan, Imarat Kavakaz, Ingushetia, Moscow, North Caucasus, Olympic Games, Pyatigorsk, Russia, Sochi, United States, Volograd