MS Risk Blog

The Likelihood of a US-North Korea War. How Can China Help?

A US-North Korea war is highly unlikely. What is likely is status quo – vibrating waves of security tensions, sanctions, and South Korea and Japan’s whiny diplomacy to tell on North Korea to the US. As much as the world is entertained by Trump’s loud rhetoric that the US will unilaterally take care of the North Korean problem, the stakes are too high for China, South Korea and Japan to allow US attack on North Korea. Perhaps the only agenda common to China, South Korea and Japan right now on this matter is that none of them wants a war in the region.

When it comes to North Korea, we’re talking about a regime that:

• thrives on the nation’s fear of the regime;
• is not accountable to the nation for its actions;
• will not hesitate to starve the nation just to be able to wage a war, if it must;

And yet it is highly unlikely that Kim Jong Un wants to start war with the US. The dictator is brandishing threats against the US and its two Asian allies in the region to likely seek the least compromised peace treaty with the US. The regime would not see itself gaining in a peace negotiation unless it can project formidable military capability. Sustaining the regime is undoubtedly Kim’s biggest priority and going into a war with the US is his least likely option.

The US unilateral strikes on North Korea will likely anger Japan and South Korea more than China as the two Asian countries will have to bear the brunt of a North Korean retaliation. The safety of South Koreans and Japanese are as important as that of the US, not to mention that there are 29,000 and 50,000 US troops in South Korea and Japan respectively. Besides, North Korea has massed artillery and missile capability adjacent to the demilitarized zone, close to South Korea. It has been estimated that in this scenario alone, North Korea could potentially cause 100,000 casualties in South Korea.

China, on the other hand, has remained ambivalent whether or not it will defend North Korea in the event of a military conflict. According to the 1961 Sino North Korean Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance, China is obliged to intervene against unprovoked aggression toward North Korea. But the Asian superpower has its own priorities in the region and can likely adopt other means to stop the supposed war between the US and North Korea. China’s support to North Korea dates back to the Korean War (1950-1953). Since then, China has provided political and economic backing to the North Korean regimes. But relations between the two countries have strained over the years since North Korea’s proliferation of nuclear weapons. Beijing has also supported sanctions from UN Security Council Resolutions and implemented new trade sanctions including reduced energy supplies to North Korea and has called for denuclearization talks. But China is also known to have stopped international punitive action against North Korea over human rights violations. China’s support to North Korea ensures a buffer between China and democratic South Korea, home to around 29,000 US troops and marines. Also, the apprehension of hundred of thousands of North Korean refugees flooding into China in the event of an unstable North Korea is a huge concern for Beijing. It is highly likely that China will want North Korea’s stability, which, otherwise, will jeopardize China’s strategic buffer and bring US troops too close for comfort.

While Trump has been urging China to do more to confront North Korea, the US has also sent an aircraft carrier strike group to the region, heightening concerns in China. China is worried that North Korea’s test of military hardware could provoke a strong response from Washington. Amidst the tension, China has sought Russia’s help to cool tensions over North Korea. Russia has also warned North Korea that Kim’s threats to deliver preemptive nuclear strikes could create a legal ground for the use of military force against the country.

There is a realistic possibility that the US does not know exactly what North Korean nuclear capability is as Kim’s threats have rapidly escalated US concerns. But the US ought to know that North Korea’s military capability is sufficient to annihilate millions in South Korea and Japan, should a war break out between the US and North Korea. That North Korea will be smashed in retaliation cannot be a consolation or measure of success in this war.

The US has pushed North Korea to irreversibly give up its nuclear weapons program in return for aid and diplomatic benefits. Washington believes in using pressure to influence North Korea to change its behavior. But the only likely power to influence North Korea is China. Pressing China to force North Korea to give up its nuclear arms is, however, ineffective, rather pushing China to make sure that North Korea does not use them is a reasonable way forward. It is almost certain that Beijing will actively seek to stop a supposed US strike on North Korea. This could be through attempts to force North Korea to negotiate. If that fails and a war is imminent, China is likely to deploy troops on the line in North Korea to dissuade the US from striking. It’s the same strategy that the US adopts as it stations troops in South Korea and Poland. The Chinese forces in North Korea would then also be in a position to force a coup and install an alternative government to the Kim regime, which ensures that North Korea survives and Chinese priorities in the region are served.

The lynchpin of this assessment is that Kim Jong Un is a rational actor in this matter. It is likely that he will not lose sight of his need to sustain his regime. With that in perspective, tensions will still prevail but the likelihood of a war in the region is remote.

UN: Syrian Refugee Numbers Pass 5 Million Mark in Region

Data from the United Nations refugees agency released late last month showed that the number of people fleeing Syria’s civil war to Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Egypt has passed the 5 million mark.

According to the latest data collected by UNHCR and the government of Turkey, a total of 5,018,168 people have now taken refugee in Syria’s neighbours and in other countries in the regions. Millions more have fled to other parts of the country, including tends of thousands in March, mainly women and children, who were trying to get away from a rebel offensive northwest of the city of Hama.

Since 2011, in the wake of anti-government protests, which spiralled into a full-blown conflict between rebels, Islamist militants, government troops and foreign backers Syrians have poured across these countries borders. While an initial rush of refugees in 2013 and 2014 steadied for the following two years, the numbers have again risen this year after the military victory by the government and its Russian allies in the northern city of Aleppo. Syrians have also fled to Europe in large numbers, making 884,461 asylum claims between April 2011 and October 2016, with almost two-thirds of those claims being in Germany or Sweden. Hundreds of thousands more live in Gulf countries that are no party to the 1951 Refugee Convention, such as Saudi Arabi, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, so they are not recorded as refugees. A UN-led humanitarian appeal to help Syrian refugees and support host communities has received only 6 percent of the money that it requires this year – US $298 million out of US $4.6 billion.

France Arrests Two for Planning “Violent” Attack Ahead of Presidential Election

France’s interior minister disclosed yesterday that two Frenchmen were arrested in Marseille on Tuesday, adding that they were planning an “imminent and violent attack” ahead of the first round of the presidential election on Sunday 23 April.

Speaking at a news conference, Interior Minister Matthias Fekl disclosed that “these two radicalized men…intended to commit in the very short-term – by that I mean in the coming days – an attack on French soil,” adding that a “definite terrorist act” had been foiled. The two men – who have been named as 23-year-old Clement Baur and 30-year-old Mahiedine Merabet – were seized in the southern port city a few moments apart from each other on Tuesday morning. Local mayor Lisette Narducci has disclosed that explosives had ben found after a search of an apartment near Marseille’s largest train station. Sources close to the investigation have also divulged that at least two assault weapons had been found. Neither the interior minister nor police have given nay precise details of what attacks the pair had been planning and whether they were intending to target one o more of the election candidates. Far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen, one of the foremost candidates, is scheduled to hold the last big rally of her campaign in Marseille this week, according to he programme.

Campaign officials have reported that France’s internal intelligence agency, which had been looking for the two suspects for more than a week, had warned main candidate in the election that there was a threat to their security. Comments made by officials indicate that candidates Francois Fillon, Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, who are the three leading contenders, wer amongst those warned of a security risk.

France is due to go to the polls on 23 April, with a second round to take place on 7 May, in what is one of the most unpredictable elections in its modern history. Security has been a key campaigning issue after attacks by militant Islamists have killed more than 230 people in the past two years.

Abu Sayyaf Militant Linked to Foreign Killings Dead

The Philippine military chief reported on 12 April that Philippine troops battling militants on a central resort island have killed an Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) commander who was involved in the beheadings of two Canadians and a German.

Military chief of staff Gen. Eduardo Ano disclosed that troops recovered and identified the remains of Moammar Askali at the scene of the battle in the coastal village of Bohol Island, adding that five other ASG gunmen, three soldiers and a policeman were also killed in Tuesday’s clashes. Gen. Ano disclosed that ASG militants had identified Askali from a photo that troops took of the young militant leader after his death, which effectively confirmed that the gunmen had quietly cruised into Bohol on three motorboats Monday night then clashed with troops belonging to the Islamic extremist group.

Askali, who had used the nom de guerre Abu Rami, had in recently years partly served as a spokesman for the group, with analysts saying that his death is a major blow to the militant group. Askali was an emerging hard-line leader of ASG and had pledged allegiance to the so-called Islamic State (IS) group. According to a police profile, he had received bomb-making training from Malaysian Zulkifli bin Hi, or Marwan, a top Southeast Asia militant leader who was killed in 2015.

In recent years, ASG militants have crossed the sea border with Malaysia to kidnap scores of foreign tourists and crewmembers off vessels transiting the region – in a move that has reflected their growing capability and need for money.

French Presidential Election: Latest Poll Shows Melenchon Surging

A new released on 11 April has indicated that far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon is closing the gap with the frontrunners in France’s presidential election race, building on his recent surge as sniping between the top contenders gathered pace.

With just 12 days to go until the first round of voting, to be held on 23 April, polls are tightening and possibility for May’s second, deciding round, which for weeks have been tipped between far-right leader Marine Le Pen and centrist Emmanuel Macron, appear to be opening up.

Mr Melenchon’s support has increased by seven percentage points to 19 percent in a monthly Ifop-Fiducial poll for Paris Match and Sud Radio, effectively putting him in third place ahead of conservative candidate Francois Fillon. He is also targeting Mr Macron’s voters, however this time those to the left or centre-left. The poll shows that Mr Melenchon and Mr Fillon, on 19 percent and 18.5 percent, respectively, still lag behind Ms Le Pen, on 24 percent, and Mr Macron, on 23 percent, however it appears that the two frontrunners are losing steam. Mr Macron is widely expected to win against Ms Le Pen if both progress to the second round of voting gone 7 May. The latest poll also showed that some 32 percent of voters could abstain in the first round.

Mr Melenchon’s rise in the polls is the latest episode in an election campaign that has been full of surprises. It has also affected financial markets and prompted a warning by the head of businesses lobby group Medef Piere Gattaz. Spearing on Europe 1 radio on Tuesday, Gattaz warned against a possible Melenchon-Le Pen second round, calling both Mr Melenchon’s and Ms Le Pen’s programmes “an absolute catastrophe” for France. While Mr Melenchon is on the polar opposite of the political spectrum from Ms Le Pen, in particular on immigration, they both distrust the European Union (EU), and want to renegotiate France’s role in it and hold a referendum on EU membership.

Meanwhile in recent weeks, the presidential campaign has become increasingly bitter. In recent days, Mr Fillon has stepped up his attacks against Mr Macron, with whom he is in competition for centre-right voters, calling him a liar. Mr Macron responded on Sud Radio, “Mr Fillon is a man of little worth.” Mr Fillon has been under fire since January over allegations that his wife was paid hundreds of thousands of euros for minimal work as a parliamentary assistant for several years. The couple are currently under formal investigation by magistrates.