MS Risk Blog

Syrian Observatory Announces Confirmation of Death of IS Leader

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights disclosed on Tuesday 11 July that it had “confirmed information” that Islamic State (IS) leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has been killed. The report comes just days after the Iraq army announced that it had recaptured the last sectors of the northern Iraqi city of Mosul, which Baghdadi’s forces overran almost exactly three years ago.

On Tuesday, Rami Abdulahman, the director of the British-based war monitoring group, disclosed, “(we have) confirmed information from leaders, including one of the first rank who is Syrian, in the Islamic State in the eastern countryside of Deir al-Zor.” Abdulrahman further disclosed that activists working with him in Deir al-Zor had been told by IS sources that Baghdadi had died. They however did not state when or how. Sources also indicated that Baghdadi had been present in the astern countryside of Syria’s Deir al-Zor province in the past three months.

Officials in Iraq and in the US however have so far not confirmed the report. In Iraq, US Army Colonel Ryan Dillon, spokesman for the US-led coalition that is fighting IS, stated that he could not confirm the new, while the top US general in Iraq later stated that the coalition had no concrete information. Speaking at a news briefing, Lieutenant General Stephen Townsend disclosed, “despite all the helpful reports to us from every source imaginable, I’m unable to confirm or deny whether he is, or whether he is alive or dead. Let me just say for the record, my fervent hope is it is the latter.” Kurdish and Iraqi officials have so far not commented on the report. In the US, the Pentagon stated that it had no information to corroborate the reports. While Baghdadi’s death has been announced several times before, the Observatory has a record of credible reporting on the Syrian conflict. So far. IS-affiliated websites and social media feeds have not said anything.

In June, Russia’s Defense Ministry disclosed that it might have killed Baghdadi when one of its air strikes hit a gathering of IS commanders on the outskirts of the Syrian city of Raqqa.   While at the time, Russian officials indicated that they were nearly 100% sure that Baghdadi was amongst those killed, authorities in Washington disclosed that they could not corroborate the death. Furthermore, Western and Iraqi officials remained sceptical.

What is clear is that the death of Baghdadi, who declared a caliphate governed by Islamic law from a mosque in Mosul in 2014, would be one of the biggest blows yet to the jihadist group, which is trying to defend rapidly shrinking territory in both Syria and Iraq.

The United States put up a US $25 million reward for his capture, the same amount as it had offered for al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden and his successor Ayman al-Zawahiri. It currently remains unknown if anyone will claim the bounty. IS leaders killed in Iraq and Syria since th US-led coalition began its air strikes include Abu Ali al-Anbar, Baghdadi’s deputy; IS’ “minister of war,” Abu Omar al-Shishani, who was a close military adviser to Baghdadi; and Abu Mohammad al-Adnani, one of the group’s most prominent and longest-serving leaders.

Countries Set to Raise Defense Spending This Year

On 28 June, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced that European allies of NATO and Canada will increase their defense spending by 4.3 percent in 2017, effectively marking a cumulative US $46 billion increase since cuts stopped in 2014.

Speaking a day before NATO defense ministers are due to meet in Brussels to discuss greater security expenditure, which US President Donald Trump is pushing for, Stoltenberg disclosed, “to keep our nations safe, we need to keep working to increase defense spending and fairer burden-sharing across our alliance.” Speaking at a news conference, he stated, “after years of decline, in 2015 we saw a real increase in defense spending across European allies and Canada…this year, we foresee an even greater real increase of 4.3 percent.”

Asylum Seekers in Canada After Fleeing US Policy Now Trapped in Legal Limbo

Officials are reporting that thousands of people who fled to Canada in a bid to escape US President Donald Trump’s crackdown on illegal migrants have now become trapped in legal limbo because of an overburdened refuge system, struggling to find work, permanent housing or enrol their children in schools.

According to previously unpublished Immigration and Refugee Board data, refugee claims are now taking longer to be completed than at any time in the past five years, with a report indicating that those wait times are set to grow longer after the IRB in April allocated “up to half” of its 127 tribunal members to focus on old cases. The number of delayed hearings more than doubled from 2015 to 2016, and is now on track to increase again this year. Such hearings are critical to establishing a claimant’s legal status in Canada. Without the status, they will struggle to convince employees to hire them or landlords to rent to them. Claimants also cannot access loans or student financial aid, or update academic or professional credentials in order to meet Canadian standards.

Officials have indicated that Canada’s refuge system was already struggling to process thousands of applications even before 3,500 asylum seekers began crossing the US border on foot in January. The IRB has disclosed that it lacks the manpower to complete security screenings for claimants and hear cases in a timely manner, adding that often there are not enough tribunal members to decide cases or interpreters to attend hearings. According to IRB data, more than 4,500 hearings that were scheduled in the first four months of this year were cancelled. The government is now focused on clearing a backlog of about 24,000 claimants, including people who filed claims in 2012 or earlier. This effectively means that more than 15,000 people who have filed claims so far this year, including the new arrivals from the US, will have to wait even longer in order for their cases to be heard. Asylum cases are already taking longer to finalize, on average, than at any time since Canada introduced a statutory two-month limit in 2012. This year, it has been taking on average 5.6 months for asylum cases to be finalized, compared to 3.6 months in 2012.

In a bid to try to speed cases through, Canada’s refugee tribunal has put people from certain war-torn countries, such as Yemen and Syria, on an expedited track ,which requires no hearings. Scott Bardsley, spokesman for Public Safety Minister Ralph Goodale, who oversees the Canada Border Services Agency, disclosed that borders agents are working overtime in a bid to address the backlog in security screenings.

According to government statistics, this year is on track to be the highest year for refugee claims since at least 2011. The stresses on the Canadian system mirror those of other countries with an open door policy. In Sweden, rising financial strains involved in resettlement were partly behind a move to introduce tough new asylum laws.

Who Will Replace Baghdadi?

If Islamic State (IS) leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is confirmed dead, as Russia has already indicated that it is nearly 100 percent sure that he was killed in an air strike in May, he is likely to be succeeded by one of his top two lieutenants, both of whom were Iraqi army officers under late dictator Saddam Hussein.

In late June, Russia’s defense ministry announced that Baghdadi may have been killed in an airstrike in Syria. On 23 June, Interfax news agency quoted a senior Russian parliamentarian as stating that the likelihood that he had been killed was close to 100 percent. Armed groups fighting in the region and many regional officials however are sceptical about the reports. US Army Colonel Ryan Dillom, spokesman for the international coalition that is battling IS, told a Pentagon briefing that “we don’t have any concrete evidence on whether or not he’s dead either.”

While experts on Islamist groups have indicated that they see no clear successor, they do regard Iyad al-Obaidi and Ayad al-Jumaili as the leading contenders. While Baghdadi awarded himself the title of caliph – the chief of Muslim civil and religious ruler, regarded as the successor of the Prophet Mohammad – in 2014, Obaidi or Jumaili would be unlikely to become caliph as they lack religious standing and IS has lost much of its territory. Obaidi, who is in his 50s, has been serving as war minister, while Jumaili, in his late 40s, is head of the group’s Amniya security agency. In April, Iraqi state TV reported that Jumaili had been killed, this however has not been confirmed. Both men joined the Sunni Salafist insurgency in Iraq in 2003, following the US-led invasion. Both men have been Baghdadi’s top aides since air strikes in 2016 killed his then deputy Abu Ali al-Anbari, his Chechen war minister Abu Omar al-Shishani and his Syrian chief propagandist, Abu Mohammad al-Adnani. According to Hisham al-Hashimi, who advises several Middle Eastern governments on IS affairs, “Jumaili recognizes Obaidi as his senior but there is no clear successor and, depending on conditions, it can be either of the two (who succeeds Baghdadi).”

Furthermore the appointment of a new IS leader would require the approval of an eight-member shoura council, an advisory body to the caliph. Its members however would be unlikely to meet for security reasons and they would make their opinion known through couriers. Six members of the council are Iraqis, one Jordanian and one Saudi, and all are veterans of the Sunni Salafist insurgency. A ninth member, the group’s Bahraini chief cleric, Turki al-Bin’ali, was killed in an air strike in Syria on 31 May. Two US intelligence officials in Washington have disclosed that they believed that IS had moved most of its leaders to al-Maydin in Syria’s Euphrates Valley, southeast of the group’s besieged capital there, Raqqa. They disclosed that amongst the operations moved to al-Maydin, which is located about 80 km (50 miles) west of the Iraqi border, were its online propaganda operation and its limited command and control of attacks in Europe and elsewhere.

What’s Going on in Qatar?

The crisis in the Gulf shows little sign of resolution.

What has happened?

Last month, Several Arab countries announced they were breaking diplomatic ties with Qatar.

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Bahrain cut off ties with Qatar on 5 June, later the internationally recognised Yemeni government and Libya’s eastern-based government – which has little authority – followed suit. The Maldives then announced it too was cutting ties.

Saudi Arabia said it would close borders, severing land, sea and air contact with the tiny peninsula. The Saudis, the UAE and Bahrain have given Qataris two weeks to leave, and only 48 hours for its diplomats to quit.

Why?

Saudi Arabia said it took the decision because of Qatar’s “embrace of various terrorist and sectarian groups aimed at destabilising the region”, including the Muslim Brotherhood, al-Qaida, Islamic State and groups supported by Iran.

What happened next?

23 June, the Arab states issued a list of 13 demands for Qatar to comply with if they wished to end the blockade. These were:

1. Curb diplomatic ties with Iran and close its diplomatic missions there. Expel members of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and cut off any joint military cooperation with Iran. Only trade and commerce with Iran that complies with US and international sanctions will be permitted.
2. Sever all ties to “terrorist organisations”, specifically the Muslim Brotherhood, Islamic State, al-Qaida and Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Formally declare those entities as terrorist groups.
3. Shut down al-Jazeera and its affiliate stations.
4. Shut down news outlets that Qatar funds, directly and indirectly, including Arabi21, Rassd, Al-Araby Al-Jadeed and Middle East Eye.
5. Immediately terminate the Turkish military presence in Qatar and end any joint military cooperation with Turkey inside Qatar.
6. Stop all means of funding for individuals, groups or organisations that have been designated as terrorists by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt, Bahrain, the US and other countries.
7. Hand over “terrorist figures” and wanted individuals from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Bahrain to their countries of origin. Freeze their assets, and provide any desired information about their residency, movements and finances.
8. End interference in sovereign countries’ internal affairs. Stop granting citizenship to wanted nationals from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Bahrain. Revoke Qatari citizenship for existing nationals where such citizenship violates those countries’ laws.
9. Stop all contacts with the political opposition in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Egypt and Bahrain. Hand over all files detailing Qatar’s prior contacts with and support for those opposition groups.
10. Pay reparations and compensation for loss of life and other, financial losses caused by Qatar’s policies in recent years. The sum will be determined in coordination with Qatar.
11. Consent to monthly audits for the first year after agreeing to the demands, then once per quarter during the second year. For the following 10 years, Qatar would be monitored annually for compliance.
12. Align itself with the other Gulf and Arab countries militarily, politically, socially and economically, as well as on economic matters, in line with an agreement reached with Saudi Arabia in 2014.
13. Agree to all the demands within 10 days of it being submitted to Qatar, or the list becomes invalid.

Qatar’s Response

That deadline was extended by 48 hours on Sunday, when Qatar sent a letter to Kuwaiti mediators effectively refusing to engage with the demands.

The Qatar foreign minister said his country would not accept any plan that breaches international law or interferes with its sovereignty.

Speaking at Chatham House in London, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani accused Saudi Arabia and its allies of “demanding that we must surrender our sovereignty as the price for ending the siege”.

Thani described the Saudi demands as “not reasonable or actionable”, adding “the blockade was extraordinary, unprovoked and hostile”.

The demand, he said, would mean “Qatar was asked to curtail free expression, hand individual people over to torture, reduce its defence capabilities, go against international law, outsource its foreign policy to Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, literally sign an open cheque to the blockading countries to pay an unlimited amount of money described as compensation.”

The Blockade’s Response

The four Arab states leading the boycott said late on 6 July that Doha’s refusal of their demands was proof of its links to terrorist groups and that they would enact new measures against it.

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Bahrain released a joint statement carried by their state media saying their initial list of 13 demands was now void and pledging new political, economic and legal steps against Qatar.

Qatar’s stance “reflects its intention to continue its policy, aimed at destabilising security in the region”, their statement said. “All political, economic and legal measures will be taken in the manner and at the time deemed appropriate to preserve the four countries’ rights, security and stability.”