MS Risk Blog

New Migrant Route Brining Refugees to Spain

The number of migrants crossing into Spain by sea from North Africa has doubled in 2017 compared to last year, effectively outpacing the Libya-Italy route as the fastest growing entry point to Europe.

The United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) has reported that the spike in migrant boats is already placing a lot of stress on Spain’s insufficient migration structures. According to the UNHCR, more than 360,000 refugees and migrants arrived on European shores across the Mediterranean in 2016, with many escaping conflicts and poverty. So far this year, more than 85,000 have reached Italy. Officials are now indicating that while the Italian sea route remains the most popular overall, with 59,000 migrants taking this route between January and May 2017 – up 32 percent from last year, the Spanish route further west is gathering steam, with 6,800 migrants using this route during the same period – an increase of 75 percent from 2016. Officials have added that in June, the trend was even more pronounced, as 1,900 migrants, mostly young men originating from Guinea, Ivory Coast, Gambia and Cameroon, reached the shores of the southern region of Andalusia, effectively quadrupling the numbers that were registered in the same month last year.

In West Africa, the number of migrants that have been spotted in the Agadez region of Niger, which is a key stop on the way to Libya from West Africa, has also dramatically fallen. Buba Fubareh, a 27-year-old mason from Banjul, Gambia, who tried and failed to get to Europe via Libya earlier this year, disclosed that “people are talking about going to Spain. It seems like it is safest to go through Morocco to Spain than through Libya. The difference is that Libya doesn’t have a president and Morocco does – there are no guns like in Libya.” Many African migrants who have passed through Libya have reported having been beaten up, detained in camps with no food or water and even traded as slaves before being held for ransom, forced labour or sexual exploitation.

Officials have also noted that a similar reorganization has also taken place within the Western Mediterranean route itself, with the Alboran Sea, which connects northeastern Morocco and southeastern Spain, being now more popular than the previously favoured Gibraltar strait or Ceuta and Melilla land borders where policing has increased. According to government data, migrant arrivals on the Spanish coastline averaged just under 5,000 a year between 2010 and 2016, down from a peak of 39,180 in 2006. Government data shows that it is on track to top 11,000 this year. The UNHCR has indicated that the country was unprepared to handle vulnerable groups, such as victims of trafficking or unaccompanied minors and refugees who should be channelled through asylum procedures. So far, Spain has given a lukewarm response to a request from Italy last month to fellow European union (EU) countries to allow rescue boats carrying African migrants across the Mediterranean to dock in their ports in a bid to help handle tens of thousands of arrivals. Spokeswoman for the UNHCR in Spain Maria Jesus Vega has stated that “what is clear is that, they (Spain’s government) have to get ready. They can’t be caught unprepared. What started happening elsewhere in Europe in 2015 cant be allowed to happen here,” adding “its not yet an emergency, but you have to take into account that there are no structures here to deal with more arrivals.”

US Ends Laptop Ban Imposed on Middle East Airlines

The United States has ended a four month ban on passengers carrying laptops onboard US bound flights from certain airports in the Middle East and North Africa, effectively brining to an end one of the controversial travel restrictions imposed by President Donald Trump’s administration.

In a tweet late on Wednesday, the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) confirmed that Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport was the last of 10 airports to be exempted from the ban. US officials lifted the ban after visiting the 10 airports in Egypt, Morocco, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and Turkey over the past three weeks to confirm that new security measures announced last month were being implemented. The ban has also been lifted on the nine airlines affected – Emirates, Etihad Airway, Qatar Airways, Turkish Airlines, Saudi Arabian Airlines, Royal Jordanian, Kuwait Airways, EgyptAir and Royal Air Maroc – which are the only carries that fly directly to the US from the region.

In March, the US banned large electronics in cabins on flights from ten airports in the Middle East and North Africa over concerns that explosives could be concealed in the devices taken onboard aircraft. The restrictions were imposed as major US carriers American Airlines Group, Delta Air Lines and United Airlines resumed their campaign against the Gulf carriers Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways by pressuring the new US administration to renegotiate its open skies agreements with the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. US and Middle East officials however have stated that the campaign and the travel restrictions were not related. Middle East carriers have blamed the Trump administration’s travel restrictions, which include banning citizens of some Muslim majority countries from visiting the US, for a downturn in demand on US routes. Leading industry group the International Air Transport Association (IATA) also criticized the laptop ban, stating that it was ineffective, as security experts argued that militants could travel to the US via Europe or elsewhere where the restrictions did not apply.

A ban on citizens on six Muslim-majority countries – Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen – remains in place, however it has been limited after several US court hearings challenged the restrictions.

On Thursday, the US issued a revised directive to airlines around the world in response to requests that it clarify aviation security measures scheduled to begin taking effect this week. The new requirements include enhanced passenger screening at foreign airports, increased security protocols around aircraft and in passenger areas and expanded canine screening. They affect 325,000 airline passengers on about 2,000 commercial flights arriving daily in the US, on 180 airlines from 280 airports in 105 countries. Airlines that fail to meet the new security requirements could face in-cabin electronics restrictions.

The United Kingdom continues to enforce a similar in-cabin ban on electronics on flights from some Middle Eastern airports. Those restrictions apply to flights from Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, Tunisia and Saudi Arabia.

France Extends State of Emergency

The French Parliament this month voted to extend the state of emergency until 1 November 2017, a measure first imposed after Islamist suicide bombers and gunmen killed 130 people in coordinated attacks on Paris in November 2015. The extension also comes as French President Emmanuel Macron has promised that the state of emergency will end in November.

Lawmakers across the political divide supported the extension, with the exception of those from Jean-Luc Melenchon’s hard-left France Unbowed Party and the Community Party, both of which have deemed that the emergency rule is dangerous for civil liberties. Interior Minister Gerard Collomb told parliament that “freedom and security are not mutually exclusive…When you strengthen security, you don take away civil liberties, you preserve them, and sometimes you enhance them.”

France, whose forces are part of the US-led coalition that is fighting the so-called Islamic State (IS) group in Iraq and Syria, has been beset by a wave of Islamist militant attacks since early 2015. Nearly all of the attacks have been carried out by IS loyalists or individuals inspired by the group. Human rights groups however have criticized the state of emergency, stating that it tramples on individuals’ rights and that it erodes the rule of law.

The state of emergency effectively allows police to search homes and arrest people without prior consent from judges. It also allows them to tap computer and phone communications more freely. The French government has presented a draft counter-terrorism bill that President Macron wants to replace the temporary emergency powers. The bill, which rights group shave also criticized, envisages extending police powers to stop and search people or conduct house searches and would also give officials more discretion in deciding when to invoke a risk of terrorism as justification for curbs on freedoms.

UN Agrees Peacekeeping Budget

Late last month, the United Nations states struck a deal on a US $7.3 billion annual peacekeeping budget. According to diplomats, US $600 million has been cut from current costs while the US’ share has been cut by 7.5 percent, following calls by President Donald Trump to slash funding.

In the early hours of Wednesday 28 June, the 193-member UN budget committee agreed on US $7.3 billion to fund thirteen peacekeeping missions and a logistics support office. The US initial peacekeeping budget proposal was the lowest made of all states and regional blocs and was nearly US $1 billion less than UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres’ suggestion. Washington initially proposed a peacekeeping budget of US $6.99 billion for the year from 1 July 2017, which would have reduced its share of the bill by more than 10 percent to US $1.99 billion. While President Trump has described US funding for the UN as “peanuts” compared to its “important work,” he has complained that its share of the peacekeeping bill, which is currently 28.5 percent, is “unfair.” In his 2018 budget proposal he requested that Congress approve only US $1.2 billion for UN peacekeeping. On Wednesday, US Ambassador Nikki Haley told US lawmakers in Washington that president Trump’s proposed US federal budget was “making a point that he wanted to strengthen the military and it was putting the United Nations on notice.” Haley further stated, “I have used that as leverage…now we’re seeing a lot of the other countries come forward and say ‘yes we should reform,’” adding “I really do think the message was effective.”

In a bid to cut costs, the US is also reviewing each of the UN peacekeeping missions as annual mandates come up for renewal by the UN Security Council. The US is a veto-wielding member of the Council, along with Britain, France, China and Russia.

Washington also pays 22 percent of the US $5.4 billion biennial UN core budget. Ultimately, the US Congress sets the federal government budget and will decide how much money is available for UN funding. However Republicans, who control both houses, and Democrats have both stated that they do not support drastic cuts proposed by President Trump. President Trump wants to enforce a 25 percent cap on the US contribution to UN peacekeeping. The UN General Assembly is due to negotiate next year new levels of contributions by countries for 2019, 2020 and 2021.   Secretary General Guterres has pledged to make UN peacekeeping more efficient, noting however that the current budget to fund it is less than one half of 1 percent of global military spending.

Questions Arise Again About Whereabouts of IS Leader

On Monday 17 July, a top Kurdish counter-terrorism official disclosed that he was 99 percent sure that Islamic State (IS) leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was alive and located south of the Syrian city of Raqqa, despite numerous reports that he had been killed last month.

In an interview with Reuters, Lahur Talabany disclosed, “Baghdadi is definitely alive. He is not dead. We have information that he is alive. We believe 99 percent he is alive,” adding “don’t forget his roots go back to al-Qaeda days in Iraq. He was hiding from security services. He knows what he is doing.”

IS’s secretive leaders has frequently been reported killed or wounded since he climbed up to the pulpit of a mosque in Mosul in 2014 and declared a caliphate with himself the leader of all Muslims. After leading his fighters on a sweep through northern Iraq, Baghdadi attempted to create a self-sustaining modern-day caliphate in parts of Iraq and neighbouring Syria. Talabany notes that “he is not an easy figure. He has years of experience in hiding and getting away from the security services,” adding “the territory they control right now, still to this day, is very tough territory. It is still not the end of the game for ISIL. Even though they have lost almost all of Mosul and they are getting ready to lose Raqqa as well.”

Iraqi security forces have effectively ended three years of IS ruling the Iraqi city of Mosul, and the group is now under increasing pressure in Raqqa – both of which are former strongholds in the militant’s rapidly crumbling caliphate. Talabany notes however that IS is now in the process of shifting tactics, despite low morale, noting that it would take three or four years in order to eliminate the group as it takes to the mountains and deserts to stage hit and run attacks unleash suicide bombers. According to Talabany, “they are getting ready for a different fight I think. We have a lot tougher days ahead of us than people think,” adding “we saw why they were smarter. Al-Qaeda never controlled any territory. They will be smarter.”

In the wake of numerous reports that Baghdadi has been killed, questions have been raised about who might replace him as head of a diverse group that is comprised of Iraqis and other Arabs as well as hard-core foreign fighters. Iraqi intelligence officers, who served under Saddam Hussein, have been described as the military strategists instruments in recreating an IS reign of terror.   Talabany has disclosed that it was hard to know which top Baghdadi aides were alive or dead, noting however that he believes most of the leadership remains in Syria, in an area south of Raqq. Sources have disclosed that a younger generation of Saddams’ former allies are expected to take key positions. What is evident is that security services will now face the daunting challenge of breaking up sleeper cells, typically made up of two facilitators and two operators.