MS Risk Blog

Tensions on the Rise as Kenyans Set to Vote Tomorrow

A calm before the storm appears to have settled across Kenya, as the election campaign has finally ended ahead of Tuesday’s vote.

Ten years ago post-election ethnic violence erupted in the country, and now no one in Kenya wants to see this repeated. However with opinion polls predicting a very close race between incumbent president Uhuru Kenyatta and opposition leader Raila Odinga, there are growing fears that there could a new wave of violence could erupt. What will occur in Kenya over the coming days will be less about who wins the election and more about how those who have lost take their defeat.

The key to this will be the success of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) computerised voting system process being considered free and fair. In theory, the voting system in Kenya is good as:

• Electronic identity verification should not allow people to vote more than once or the many dead people on the roll to vote at all;
• Results will be announced at the constituency level;
• Published counts will be sent digitally to Nairobi to be added up;
• Election observers will be at thousands of polling stations.

However if it fails, which was the case in 2013, the votes will be counted manually, and verifying the voters’ roll will be a lot harder and may raise suspicions. Furthermore, in a country where vote-rigging has been alleged in the past, it is highly likely that the loser of the election will challenge the results, as was the case in 2013.   During the last election, Raila Odinga turned the courts claiming electoral fraud. He however ended up losing his his case. This time, which is his fourth and probably last attempt to become president, he may turn to the streets if he considers that the election has been stolen, though in recent weeks he has called for calm amongst his supporters.

The IEBC has insisted that the system will work and it has successfully carried out a public “dry run” in order to prove it. However a quarter of polling stations are apparently outside of cellular data range. Furthermore, on 4 August, armed men raided a Nairobi building where the opposition is running its own parallel count and took computers. Later two foreign data analysts working for the opposition were expelled from Kenya. More than 180,000 agents from various organs of state security are also believed to have been deployed for the election. While this could be considered as a prudent security measure, it could also raise fears of polling station intimidation. The worst-case scenario is an extremely close result, a failed electronic voting system and a candidate who is not prepared to concede defeat.

Tensions have already been on the rise in the weeks leading up to the vote. The murder of a key figure a week before the election has really put the country on edge. Chris Msando, the IEBC head of technology, was in charge of the electronic system and was the man who appeared on television to reassure the public it would work and could not be hacked. When it tortured, strangled body was found dumped in a forest, it raised suspicions that somebody was planning to interfere with the election.

If no one wins more than 50% of the vote, then he election will go to a second round, however without a popular third candidate, this seems unlikely. Whatever does happen, the race has pitted two men against each other: Uhuru Kenyatta, the son of Kenya’s first president, against Raila Odinga, the son of its first vice-president and a man who also spent much of his political career in opposition. Mr Kenyatta, the 55-year-old incumbent, wants a second and final term in office for his Jubilee Party after narrowly winning the last election in 2013, despite having International Criminal Court (ICC) charges of inciting violence hanging over him. Mr Kenyatta, an ethnic Kikuyu, and his former rival William Ruto, a Kalenjin, were accused of inciting violence between the two communities. The charges related to the 2007 post-election violence, which killed around 1,200 people and drove hundreds of thousands from their homes. While the ICC case recently collapsed due to lack of evidence and after key witnesses died or disappeared, old ethnic wounds, which were reopened, have still not completely healed.

Rising Social Tensions in Lebanon

The rising social tensions in Lebanon started on 30 June, after the Lebanese army raid on Arsal, a town near the Syrian border. Looking for terrorists in Syrian refugee camps, soldiers were met by five suicide bombers. The army arrested around 350 people, four of whom died in detention. More recently, the appearance of Hezbollah fighters involved in skirmishes around Arsal against militants from both IS and Jabhat Fatah al-Sham (formerly al-Nusra Front), and the introduction of the national army, who have set up defensive positions around Arsal, has led to rising tensions among Lebanese citizens. Allegations of torture and mistreatment have since been made, crystallising tensions in Lebanon, which is struggling to cope with an estimated one million Syrian refugees and the threat of IS incursions across the border.

On 16 July, interior minister Nouhad Machnouk banned all protests. This decision was prompted by calls from the left-wing political group Socialist Forum, alongside other human rights and activist groups, to hold a peaceful protest on 18 July in support of Syrian refugees and detainees they believe are being mistreated by the Lebanese army. In response to the ban, the Socialist Forum issued a statement asking for accountability for the death of the four Syrians.

“We just wanted to highlight abuses and demand an independent investigation,” Farah Kobeissi, a member of the Socialist Forum said. “The violence against Syrian refugees is becoming more frequent and is normalised under the appellation of ‘war against terror.’ But even if the army is responsible, there needs to be accountability.”

An autopsy report of the bodies of the four Syrian detainees requested by military prosecutor Judge Saqr Saqr concluded that the deaths resulted from “health complications.” One was said to have died from a sudden heart attack, a second from pneumonia, a third of climate shock and substance abuse, and a fourth of emphysema. The report, however, was not made public. An independent medical analysis ordered by a Zahle judge, Antoine Abi Zeid, almost went through, until the lawyer representing the victim’s families was coerced into handing over forensic samples, intended for the hospital, to military intelligence officers in plain clothes. The same lawyer had previously stated that the detainees were in good health before their bodies were returned with clear signs of torture.

Pictures widely shared on social media and by Human Rights Watch (HRW) show deep gashes around the men’s wrists, as well as burns, bruises, and in one case, congealed blood around the man’s ear. A physician stated to HRW, “it would be reasonable to conclude that the death of these men is the result of in-custody violence.”

Allegations of torture are not new in Lebanon. In 2014, a UN report stated that ‘torture in Lebanon is a pervasive practice that is routinely used by armed forces and law enforcement agencies.’

An increase in discrimination is also causing tension between Lebanese and Syrian refugees. Farah Salkha, the executive director of the Anti-Racism Movement, racism is reaching “peaks of levels of violence and hatred towards refugees.” Salkha said, “Refugees have slowly and gradually turned into the ‘black sheep’ of this place and they are supposed to be silent, invisible, obedient, do as instructed or risk their lives, get killed and be blamed for it.”

Venezuela Election Update: Turmoil Continues

The company that provided the voting system in Venezuela alleged on 2 August that turnout numbers for the Sunday 30 July vote in the country have been “tampered with.”

The announcement comes after Venezuela’s electoral authorities announced that more than eight million people voted in the elections for a new constituent assembly. CEO of Smartmatic, Antonio Mugica, has disputed this figure, stating that the actual turnout differed by at least one million. The opposition has also stated that the figures were inflated.

Speaking during a news conference in London, Mr Mugica disclosed “it is with the deepest regret that we have to report that the turnout numbers on Sunday 30^th July for the Constituent Assembly in Venezuela wer tampered with,” adding that although the company’s system had recorded the true number of voters, a full audit would have to take place before he could give the precise figure. Asked why he had not contacted the Venezuelan authorities, Mr Mugica replied stating that he though they “would not be sympathetic to what we’d say.” Smartmatic had provided the country with about 24,000 machines for Venezuelans to cast their votes electronically. According to the company, their system supplied correct voting statistics however altered results were announced in their place.

During the vote, Venezuelans were asked to select more than 500 representatives to make up a constituent assembly. The new body has the power to rewrite the constitution, effectively side-lining the opposition-led Congress. President Nicolas Maduro argued that the constituent assembly would promote “reconciliation and peace” after months of crisis,” however the opposition, which boycotted the vote, has seen it as a power grab by the president. Turnout is seen as crucial in the vote as given that the opposition refused to field candidates, the figure gives an indication of support for the government.

In the wake of Sunday’s vote, the country remains in political and economic turmoil. Tumbling oil prices have hit social programmes hard and scores of people have been killed while protesting against the government. Despite the unrest, the government retains the crucial support of the armed forces.

US Chief States that IS Leader is ‘Alive’

This month, United States Defense Secretary General James Mattis disclosed that he believes the leader of the so-called Islamic State (IS) group hasn’t been killed, despite recent reports.

Last month, Russia’s military claimed to have killed Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in an airstrike in May, after targeting a meeting of top IS commanders in Raqqa, Syria. The Russian claim could not be confirmed by the US at the time, with America’s military leading international efforts to defeat IS in Syria and Iraq. Earlier this month, just days after the liberation of Mosul, the group’s de facto capital in Iraq, a monitoring group disclosed that it had “confirmed information” al-Baghdadi was dead. The US again could not confirm the announcement by UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. However on Friday 21 July, US Defense Secretary General Mattis stated “I think Baghdadi’s alive…and I’ll believe otherwise when we know we’ve killed him,” adding “we are going after him but we assume he is alive.” His belief has been supported by Nicholas Rasmussen, the director of the US National Counter Terrorism Centre, who has stated, “I’ve seen nothing that would lead me to believe that the leader of ISIS (Islamic State) has been removed from the battlefield…We know a good bit. We just don’t have information that would confirm his death and demise.”

The US army’s General Raymond Thomas, who is the head of special operations, has admitted that the country’s military has come “particularly close” to getting al-Baghdadi in the past, but that he had slipped away. He blamed a media leak for ruining at least one promising lead.

Having lost control of Mosul, where al-Baghdadi declared the so-called IS caliphate in 2014, the group are also under increasing pressure in Raqqa, following the entrance of Western-backed forces into the city. The US government is offering up to US $25 million for information leading to al-Baghdadi’s location, arrest or conviction.

Interpol Circulates list of IS Fighters who May Launch Attacks in Europe

A list of 173 suspected Islamic State (IS) fighters – possibly trained to launch suicide attacks in Europe – has reportedly been circulated by Interpol. The world’s largest police organizations believes that the fighters may seek to “build and position improvise explosive devices in order to cause serious deaths an injuries.”

The report includes the name of the suspects, along with the date that each fighter was recruited by the terror group, where they pray and their last known address. The Guardian is reporting that the information was collected by US intelligence agencies during assaults on IS strongholds in Iraq and Syria. The newspaper has noted however that there is no evidence to suggest that any of those listed have entered Europe and that Interpol’s list is designed to gather further information about them from European Union (EU) intelligence sources. Officials are hoping that national police forces will be able to contribute details including the suspects’ passport numbers, biometric data and details of any border crossings that they make or crimes they commit.

In a statement, an Interpol spokesperson disclosed “Interpol regularly sends alerts and updates to its National Central Bureaus (NCB) on wanted terrorists and criminals via I-24/7, our secure global police communications network.” The statement goes on to say that “it is the member country, which provides the information that decides which other countries it can be shared with,” adding “the purpose of sending these alerts and updates is to ensure that vital policing information is made available when and where it is needed.”

Last year, Sky News obtained tens of thousands of documents containing the names, addresses, telephone numbers and family contacts of IS jihadis. The files identified a number of previously unknown jihadis in the United Kingdom, as well as across northern Europe, in much of the Middle East and North Africa, and in the United States and Canada.