MS Risk Blog

Update on the situation in Catalonia

Since the independence forces obtained an absolute majority in seats in September 2015, but not in votes, in the Parliament of Catalonia, they cling to a unilateral agenda to proclaim independence from Spain, which was answered by the institutions of the State and has led to the current situation.

The culmination of the independence project began last September when the Catalan Parliament approved, against the warnings of the Constitutional Court, which declared an independence referendum unconstitutional, as well as any law that would serve to hold it, the Referendum Law, which authorized the Government of Catalonia to convene a referendum of independence, and the Law of Legal Transience, which would replace the Spanish legality in case the “yes” to independence won.

After the beginning of the coup d’état orchestrated by the Generalitat, which established the 1^st October as the date for the referendum, the Superior Court of Justice of Catalonia pose to prevent the consummation of the vote, for which it ordered the Civil Guard (GC), the National Police Force (CNP) and the Catalan autonomous police (the Mossos), requisition any material related to the vote, as well as propaganda material on the referendum and prevent political acts. Then begins a scuffle between the Government of Spain and the Generalitat in which websites are blocked, many voting materials are requisitioned, and at the same time the Generalitat disregards any order extended from the Government or from the Justice, the Government of Spain having to take full control of the Autonomous Community’s finances to avoid the use of public money to finance the referendum, and having to displace more than 10,000 agents of the GC and CNP from other regions of Spain to Catalonia, due to the disobedience and inactivity of the Mossos to avoid it.

The events of 1^st October could be summarized as a chaotic day in which the Generalitat approved the universal census that allowed any citizen to vote anywhere there was a ballot box, which led to embarrassing situations such as the same person voting up to four times, minors exercising the vote, or people from other regions of Spain being able to vote if they were in Catalonia. Given the total ineffectiveness of the Mossos, who disobeyed the Justice order to stop holding the referendum, the GC and the CNP had to take over their functions and prevent, sometimes using force because of the resistance of the protesters, the voting in certain electoral points. The Generalitat made use of this violence as propaganda, accusing the Government of Spain of violating the rights of citizens and exaggerating the number of wounded during police charges. Without having finished the vote count, the Catalan authorities announced that 2,286,217 people had voted, of which 90 percent had voted in favour of independence, which legitimized the Generalitat to implement the Law of Legal Transience and proclaim independence in 48 hours. The electoral day was characterised by a total lack of democratic rigour, with people voting several times, ballot boxes arriving at polling stations filled with ballots, and with a result that reached up to 100.88 percent of votes.

The president of the Generalitat, Carles Puigdemont, declared a few days later before the Catalan Parliament that he assumed “the mandate that the people of Catalonia become an independent State in the form of a republic” for eight seconds after proposing “that Parliament suspend the effects of the declaration of independence so that in the next weeks we can start a dialogue ». A dialogue that became a demand to the Government of Spain to mutually agree on the terms of independence or a new agreed referendum, something that led the Central Government to activate Article 155 of the Spanish Constitution to dismiss the Catalan Government, dissolve the rebel regional Parliament, and call for regional elections on 21^st December to restore the rule of law in Catalonia. When the pro-independence leaders saw no way out, one day before article 155 was applied, they voted the Unilateral Declaration of Independence (DUI).

One day after the DUI, the former president of the Generalitat, who does not accept his dismissal by the Spanish authorities, moved with five ex-ministers of his Government to Brussels, with the intention of internationalizing the conflict. Members of the former Catalan government that remained in Spain were sent to prison in a preventive manner due to the risk of absconding and they will be accused of rebellion, insurrection and economic malfeasance. Similar charges will be filed against the president of the Catalan Parliament, Carme Forcadell, and other members of the Bureau that allowed the vote of the DUI, which remain on probation. Given the refusal of the former president of the Generalitat to return to Spain to testify for the same crimes, the Spanish justice has issued an international arrest warrant against the former president and ex-ministers who seek refuge in Brussels, where they intend to slow down their extradition as long as possible.

Meanwhile, nearly 2,000 companies have left Catalonia due to the political instability, it is rumoured that Barcelona has ceased to be the preferred city to relocate the headquarters of the European Medicines Agency, which moves from London because of Brexit, the Mobile World Congress has threatened to change Barcelona as its headquarters by 2019 if Catalonia does not recover stability, and it is estimated that the Catalan crisis will cost the Spanish economy between 2,000 and 12,000 million euros.

Spain has received the support of the entire international community and the media, while the independence movement has failed in its attempt to internationalize the conflict and gather support. But the reasons that years ago led to a rise in the nationalist sentiment are still present in Catalan society, and it is the duty of both parts, the Central Government and the coming Generalitat, to repair the damage done and meet Catalan needs within the rule of law, respecting the Constitution and the unity of Spain.

Cyber-Security Concerns for the Shipping Industry

For several years, security experts have warned that outdated technological systems could lead to increased risks to shipping vessels. In recent months, the warnings have grown louder. Most computer based shipping technologies, developed in the 1990s, were initially designed as isolated systems. Over time, the industry has moved increasingly online. The change has opened the industry to more threats from outside actors. As technology and users become more sophisticated, the shipping industry has struggled to keep up to speed with the latest changes, leaving older systems vulnerable to targeting.

Two key risks are the hacking or spoofing of marine traffic. Hacking refers to the unauthorized access to data in a system. A hacker could gain entry into the internal systems of a company and access private information, such as cargo documents, or the personal details of crew members aboard a vessel. A hacker could also install malware into the system, allowing them access to sensitive material such as e-mail transmissions. In the past year, hackers have changed the banking information on email invoices going to shipping companies, redirecting millions of dollars before the issue was identified. In June, the NotPetya ransomware-attack targeted several large businesses, including shipping giant Maersk. The virus wormed through the company’s global network, forcing a stoppage at 76 port terminals globally, and costing the company nearly $300 million.

Spoofing, on the other hand, is a process of falsifying the origin or location of something in order to mislead a user. In terms of the shipping industry, it can be used to alter the coordinates of a vessel, or make the vessel simply disappear from tracking systems. Spoofing attempts are often spotted quickly, however sophisticated actors continue to construct ways to outsmart the systems, causing spoofing to remain a point of concern.

Aboard a vessel, security issues can be amplified. For example, the AIS system uses satellites and marine radar to pinpoint the location of a vessel. This information, often publicly available, can be used to track the location of vessels around the globe, and can be used by pirates as a sort of “shopping list”. Using spoofing, a malevolent actor can theoretically alter the location of a vessel, causing a ship to redirect its course into unknown waters. With hacking, they can access a cargo list, obtain the information about the content of specific crates, and if they successfully board a vessel, they target only the crates with goods they find valuable.

While there are numerous entry points for a hacker to target, aboard a vessel, perhaps the weakest point is maritime satellite communication (satcom) system. Satcom boxes are nearly always connected to the internet, and often do not have updated technology. They are often poorly secured, and can easily allow access to “protected” data and entry into a company’s larger systems.

Governments and corporations have long struggled to keep up with the changes in technology. Because of the rapid rate of sophistication, legacy systems often do not have the features or capacity to protect shipping companies from such attacks. Awareness is growing as cyber-security becomes a more prominent global concern. Experts have called for changes in the industry, including secure firmware, password complexity, penetration testing, and other preventative measures to ensure that vessels, cargo, and crew remain safe.

The International Chamber of Shipping has recently launched guidelines designed to help ship owners protect themselves from hackers. More information can be found here: http://www.ics-shipping.org/docs/default-source/resources/safety-security-and-operations/guidelines-on-cyber-security-onboard-ships.pdf?sfvrsn=16

Kenya Sets New Presidential Election Date

Last month, Kenya’s election board announced that the country’s presidential re-run has been rescheduled for 26 October, after initially stating that it would be held on 17 October.

While the election board had initially disclosed that the re-run would take place on 17 October, a French firm whose technology is being used for the polls announced earlier this month that it would not be ready in time for that date.

The announcement came a day after a detailed Supreme Court judgement laid out the reasons why the court had nullified last month’s election.

Japan Sets Election Date

Japan has set a snap election date, announcing that the polls will be held on 22 October, as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe seeks to gain on momentum of voter support standing in the wake of rising tensions with North Korea. However a fledgling party, led by popular Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike, gained momentum late last month, as the biggest opposition Democratic Party stated that it would step aside to let its candidate run under her conservative, reformist banner.

After the Cabinet formally set the date of the election, Prime Minister Abe told reporters, “I decided to call this election because we must overcome the national crisis of the threat from North Korea and an ageing population by obtaining a mandate for the people.” However some opposition lawmakers boycotted the dissolution session, in protest against the prime minister’s election decision, which could bring about a political vacuum at a time of high tensions with North Korea over its missile and nuclear arms programmes.

Prime Minister Abe, a conservative who returned to power in 2012, is hoping that a recent boost in voter support will help his Liberal Democratic Party – led (LDP) coalition maintain a simple majority. It currently holds a two-thirds “super” a majority. However Koike’s new Party of Hope, which was only formally launched on Wednesday 27 September, has upended the outlook for the lection after the former LDP member announced that she would lead it herself. Speaking at news conference, Koike disclosed, “I’m someone who is always s ready to take action.” Koike further stated that she would not run for a seat herself, although speculation persists that she will. He name has often been floated to be Japan’s first female prime minister.

Democratic Party executives have disclosed that they would not run candidates of their own and would let members run under the Party of Hope banner. The party has struggled to overcome rock-bottom ratings, defections and an image that was tainted by its rocky stint in power from 2009 until 2012.

A survey by the Mainichi newspaper showed that 18 percent of voters plan to vote for Koike’s party, compared to 29 percent for the prime minister’s ruling LDP. Meanwhile an Asahi newspaper poll showed 13 percent planned to vote for her party, versus 32 percent for the LDP. Both surveys asked voters their preference for proportional representation districts where ballots are cast for parties, rather than candidates.

In recent months, the prime minister’s personal ratings have risen to about 50 percent from about 30 percent in July, partly on the back of his leadership during the current North Korea crisis. However opposition parties say that he called the election to escape questioning in parliament about suspected cronyism scandals that had cut into his support.

South Korea Warns More Provocative Acts by North Korea in mid-October

South Korea last month indicated that it expects more provocative acts by North Korea this month, noting that they are likely to coincide with the anniversary of the founding of the North Korean communist party and China’s all-important Communist Party Congress.

During a meeting with President Moon Jae-in late last month, national security adviser Chung Eui-yong disclosed that he expected Pyongyang to act around October 10 and 18, however he provided no further details. Park Wan-ju, a lawmaker and head spokesman of the ruling Democratic Party, disclosed that the South Korean security adviser’s report also pointed to the risk that a military conflict could be sparked by “accidental incidents.” He added that “the president said the United States speaks of military and diplomatic options, but South Korea can’t go through war again.” He also sated that President Moon told the meeting that Washington and Seoul agreed that pressure needed to be applied to North Korea, with the door to talks still open. Asked if China had a plan to respond to an emergency in North Korea, such as securing nuclear and missile sites, Chinese defense ministry spokesman Wu Qian disclosed, “military means cannot become an option,” as he urged talks to resolve the issue. He added, “the Chinese military will make all necessary preparations to protect the country’s sovereignty and security and regional peace and stability,” without elaborating.

Meanwhile in a separate speech late last month, South Korean president Moon stated that cooperation with the international community to curb the North’s nuclear ambitions was at its highest ever. He further called for the strengthening of South Korea-US defences to rein in the North. South Korean lawmakers have also disclosed that national security adviser Chung had told them that the US and South Korea had agreed on the rotational deployment of US strategic assets to South Korea, possibly as soon as year-end. The nature of the assets however was not specified. The lawmakers further disclosed that President Moon added that it was inappropriate to discuss the deployment of nuclear weapons in South Korea. Moon stated that he had opposed the deployment of US Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system in South Korea, but rapid improvement in North Korea’s missile capabilities prompted the decision. China opposes the deployment of THAAD because it believes that its powerful radar could be used to look inside its territory. South Korea and the US have stated that it is only to curb North Korea’s missile threats.

China has vowed to uphold UN sanctions against North Korea, besides seeking to get stalled talks restarted with Pyongyang. Late last month, China’s commerce ministry disclosed that North Korean firms or joint ventures in China would be close within 120 days of the latest United Nations Security Council sanctions, which were passed on 12 September. The ministry further disclosed in a statement on its website that overseas, Chinese joint ventures with North Korean entities or individuals will also be closed. The statement however did not provide a timeframe. The ministry had issued similar rules after a previous set of UN sanctions in August.   Expulsion of North Korean diplomats has been amongst the measures that countries have taken against the reclusive state since its latest nuclear test. Malaysia has banned citizens from travelling to North Korea, citing the escalating tension on the Korean peninsula.

In recent weeks, tension on the Korean peninsula has risen as North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un and US President Donald Trump exchanged war-like threats and insults over the North’s nuclear and missile development programme. The North has accused President Trump of declaring war after the US leader warned that Kim’s regime would not last if he persisted in threatening the United States and its allies, having earlier warned North Korea would be totally destroyed in such an event.   Pyongyang conducted its sixth and largest nuclear test on 3 September and has launched dozens of missiles this year as it accelerates a programme aimed at eventually targeting the United States with a nuclear-tipped missile. The United States and South Korea are technically still at war with North Korea as the 1950 – 1953 Korean conflict ended with a truce and not a peace treaty.