MS Risk Blog

Security Update for Algeria (22 January 2013)

Algerian Prime Minister Sellal stated today that the terrorists involved in the attacks at Ain Amenas gas complex ranged in nationality from Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt, Mali and elsewhere in the region, as well as two from Canada. Sellal also revealed that the militants were helped by a former driver who worked at the plant. This detail validates speculations that people known to the complex were involved in the planning of the attacks.

He also confirmed that 38 workers and 29 terrorists died, while another three were taken into custody. Sellal states that five hostages are unaccounted for; other governments claim there are seventeen still missing.

In defence of the actions taken by the Algerian government, Sellal said, “I swear before God that there are few in this world who could achieve” what the Algerian armed forces undertook. Sellal also indicated that Algeria wanted to send a message to terrorists.

Mokhtar Belmokhtar, the leader of the militant group, confirmed that the attack had been prepared for a long time, but the French intervention in Mali provided the opportunity to carry out the plan. Belmokhtar also stated that he had hoped to negotiate and had promised the hostages would not be harmed. The Algerian government believed that the demands were “unacceptable”.

Analysts suggest that the diverse composition of the militants, which included three explosives experts, and the nature of the target may signal a shift toward a more sophisticated approach to conducting attacks. Though Belmokhtar and his group failed in Algeria, he has vowed more attacks in the future.

Algeria has not been economically impacted by the events. The Ain Amenas plant, which produces 10% of the nations’ gas, is set to resume operations in a few days. Gas complexes throughout the nation increased output to maintain normal demand. PT Pertamina, Indonesia’s state-owned oil company, will proceed with a bid to buy stakes in three Algerian oil fields from ConocoPhillips.

Hostage Situation in Algeria (21 January 2013)

On Saturday, Algerian Special Forces stormed a natural gas complex in Ain Amenas, in a “final assault” to put an end to the four-day hostage situation. Seven hostages were summarily killed as Algerian troops tried to free them. Over the course of the crisis, 37 foreign hostages from eight countries, and eleven Algerian workers have been killed in the attacks. Seven victims are yet to be identified; five are still missing.

Sources indicate that the militants conducted a highly organized and well planned assault. Members of the Al-Qaeda linked group, Katiba Moulathamin, attacked the plant Wednesday morning from the Libyan border, 60 miles from the natural gas plant. The militants attacked two buses taking foreign employees to the airport. As the buses’ military escort fired on the attackers, the rebels turned to the gas complex, which is divided between the workers’ living quarters and the refinery itself, and seized hostages. Algerian officials suggest that the attackers may have had inside help from Algerians employed at the site.

Early Saturday, the Algerian military stationed itself in the residential barracks of the plant, while militants, armed with rocket-launchers and machine guns, were located in the industrial section with an undisclosed number of hostages. Shortly before the military assault, the leader of the hostage-takers, Abdul Rahman al-Nigeri, said the government had to choose between negotiating with the kidnappers and leaving the hostages to die, also stating that the area had been booby-trapped and swore to blow up the complex if the Algerian army used force. The Algerian military is clearing mines planted by the militants.

A video released by Mokhtar Belmokhtar, Katiba Moulathamin’s leader, confirmed his involvement for the first time, stating that the operation was carried out by 40 fighters from six nations, including several Westerners. Algerian officials say Belmokhtar’s group was behind the attack, but he was not present himself. The raid leader, Abdul Rahman al-Nigeri, is thought to be among the 32 dead militants.

Nigeri, a fighter from an Arab tribes in Niger, joined the Algerian Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) in early 2005. A year later, the GSPC joined up with al-Qaeda to create al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and has since spread across North Africa, the Sahara, and the Sahel region. Recently, AQIM has been bolstered by millions earned from the kidnapping of Westerners and their ability to move across the borders between Libya, Algeria, Mali and Niger.

It is suspected that this attack was a symptom of disputes between Belmokhtar and Abdelmalek Droukdel, man who was chosen to lead the GSPC following the death of former leader Nabil Sahraoui. Belmokhtar believed himself as a major candidate to replace Sahraoui, however the the position went to Droukdel instead. On the outer level, the crisis in Ain Amenas appeared to be a warning to the Algerian government, but within AQIM, the situation could be perceived as a show of strength by Belmokhtar.

Security Situation in Mali (21 January 2013)

French Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian confirmed today that Malian and French troops have taken control of two key towns from the Islamist militants:  Diabaly and Douentza.  However French military officials and local residents have both noted that the town of Diabaly has been riddled with land mines which were placed by militants who were fleeing.  Consequently, although the Diabaly is currently under French control, severe security issues remain and travel to the town is unadvised at this time.  The town of Douentza, which was taken by Islamist militants in September 2012, is a crossroads town on the way to the rebel bastions of Gao, Kidal and Timbuktu.  Therefore while it is currently under French control, this may change at any moment as militants in the north continue to attempt to retake control. Therefore at this time, the situation in both towns remains to be tense while threats of attacks and kidnappings of westerners are highly likely to continue.  MS Risk strongly advises against all travel to the region of Segou.  This is due to terrorist and kidnap threats as well as an increase in troop movement and the possibility of checkpoints and military activity.  Malian security forces are also likely to increase their security safeguards over the coming weeks.  This will include checkpoints and other controls of movement in Bamako and across the country.

Although the security situation in Bamako remains to be relatively stable, the escalation of hostilities in Mopti, Diabaly and Douentza over the past several days has heightened tensions throughout the country.  The country also continues to face challenges, including food shortages, internally displaced persons and the continued presence in northern Mali of factions that are linked to al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM).  The state of emergency, which was declared on 11 January 2013, remains to be in effect and it enables the government to take extraordinary measures in order to deal with the crisis.  MS Risk advises against all travel to Mali.  For those who remain in the country, it is advised to monitor local media as the situation remains to be fluid.

Security Situation in Mali: 19 – 20 January 2013

Malian forces have gained control of the central town of Diabaly, securing it from Islamist militants who have taken control of much of northern Mali.

Though this is a critical advance, the situation is confused at the moment. Parts of Diabaly’s population are sympathetic to the Islamists, and the rebels are suspected to be taking refuge in the forests beyond the city’s limits. French and Malian troops continue to monitor the town’s outksirts.

Mali was relatively stable, regarded as a “model democracy,” until the democratic government was overthrown in a 2012 coup.

Islamist rebels took advantage of the power vacuum to establish themselves in the north. Following the overthrow of the Qaddafi regime in Libya, Tuareg mercenaries returned to Mali, along with members of al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). The militants imposed a strict interpretation of Sharia law which included banning music, smoking, drinking and watching sports on television. They also destroyed churches and damaged historic tombs and shrines.

On Saturday, demonstrators in Gao killed the chief of Islamic police, avenging the Islamists’ killing of a local journalist who was suspected of giving information to the Malian army.

France is considering sending up to an additional 2,500 in addition to the 2,000 troops currently in Mali. Of the estimated 5,800 African troops that have agreed to assist in Mali, only about 100 soldiers have arrived. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has reported that it has 3,300 regional troops on standby, and has urged the United Nations to provide immediate logistical and financial support for African troops. Canada and Britain are deploying military transport aircraft, and Russia has offered logistical support. While US policy prohibits direct military aid to Mali, until leaders are chosen through an election, the nation has dispatched 100 military trainers to six African nations who are sending troops.

Hostage Situation in Algeria – 18 January 2013

Members of the radical group “Katiba Moulathamin,” an offshoot of Al-Qaeda-in the Islamic Maghreb, have claimed credit for occupying the facilities of the Tigantourine gas field near the Algerian desert city of Ain Amenas, close to the Libyan border, on Wednesday. The militants kept an undisclosed number of Algerians and foreigners hostage.

A speaker for the group indicated that this action was “in response to the flagrant interference of Algeria authorizing the use of its airspace by the French Air Force to conduct raids against northern Mali.”

The Algerian government, fearing immediate threat to the lives of the hostages, acted unilaterally in sending troops to storm the residential compound where the majority of hostages were presumed to be held, in order to prevent militants from leaving the country. Estimates show that around 30 hostages and 11 militants have been killed in the ensuing firefight.

As of Thursday morning, approximately 650 hostages have been freed, including 573 Algerians. Algerian Prime Minister Abdelmalek Sellal told British Prime Minister David Cameron, “this first operation was complete but this is a large and complex site and they are still pursuing terrorists and possibly some of the hostages in other areas of the site.”

The Algerian state-run APS news agency says approximately 60 foreigners are still being held. Algerian forces continue to look for hostages and captors, among them American, European, and Japanese citizens.

US plane has landed near the facility to evacuate hostages.

ABOUT KATIBA MOULATHAMIN:

Katiba Moulathamin or “Those who Sign with Blood”, separated from Al Qaeda in the Islamic Magreb, but still take orders from the group. The group is presumed to be led by Mokhtar Belmokhtar, a former fighter in Afghanistan who is known as a cigarette smuggler in the Maghreb.

The Associated Press conducted a telephone interview with Oumar Ould Hamaha, an associate of Belmokhtar. Hamaha explained Belmokhtar’s motivation for breaking away from al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) to form his own splinter group. Hamaha explained, “It’s so that we can better operate in the field that we have left this group which is tied to the ‘Maghreb’ appellation. We want to enlarge our zone of operation throughout the entire Sahara, going from Niger through to Chad and Burkina Faso.”

Although it is important to note that the chosen location is outside of the normal operating areas of al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, attacks, such as this one, had previously been staged by the Armed Islamic Group (GIA).  The GIA, which has been dormant since approximately 2005, was a radical Islamist group in Algeria whose primary objective was to overthrow the Algerian government and to replace it with an Islamic state.  During the 1990’s, the group used a wide variety of methods in its attacks, including bombings, shootings, hijackings and kidnappings.  The GIA was also known to have targeted intellectuals, journalists and foreigners both within and outside Algeria.  It has been reported that between 1992 and 2002, the GIA killed more than 100 foreigners, mostly European, in Algeria.  The group has links with terrorist organizations, including al-Qaeda, throughout the Middle East as well as in Central and Southern Asia.

TRAVEL SUMMARY

UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) advise against all but essential travel to areas within 450km of the Mali and Niger borders and within 100km of the Mauritania border, and against all but essential travel to areas within 50km of the Libya and Tunisia borders, south of Tebessa.  In addition, the FCO advises against all but essential travel to the following administrative districts (wilayas) east of Algiers: Boumerdès, Bouira and Tizi Ouzou. It is recommended to exercise extreme caution close to this area.

The FCO advises extreme caution in all travel to the wilayas of Adrar, Tamanrasset and Illizi, south of the towns of Arak and Illizi, and caution in all travel to the following wilayas east of Algiers: Bordj  Bou Arreridj, Bejaia and Skikda.

There is a high threat from terrorism in Algeria. Attacks could be indiscriminate, including in places frequented by expatriates and foreign travellers such as restaurants, hotels and shopping centres. Following French military intervention in Mali, there is a possibility of retaliatory attacks targeting Western interests in the region. We advise vigilance.