MS Risk Blog

Lukashenko and the Highjacking

When Minsk scrambled a fighter jet to force a Ryanair flight from Athens to Vilnius to land on Belarusian territory with the sole apparent aim of arresting the journalist and activist Roman Protasevich, the Belarusian political crisis stopped being a domestic issue and went definitively global. Alexander Lukashenko’s international isolation has been growing for many months following the contested presidential election last summer and ensuing protests, but now it has reached a whole new level. With its own nationals and airplane having experienced how Minsk treats its opponents, the West is embarking on measures it has been reluctant to undertake for decades.

The problem is that this episode wouldn’t have even dared happen in the Cold War. There were rules back then, worked out with difficulty by both sides in the attempt to prevent the worst from happening. There was no trust, but there were talks, with precise protocols and a thousand difficulties: between the Kremlin and the White House, the famous “red telephone” would be used only as the last resort to stop a nuclear war, just like the one narrowly averted with the Cuban Missile Crisis. Pieces were moved on the chessboard, and the Iron Curtain also served as a line dividing mutual safe zones: a tacit agreement prohibiting enemies from crossing over the Wall, and an escaped, or more likely, expelled, dissident could feel safe in the West.

After Belarusian opposition journalist Protasevich was kidnapped, alongside an entire Ryanair plane, the EU came to realise it is facing a dictator who doesn’t play by any rules. Lukashenko is looking to clash, not communicate. He has been in power since 1994, he has been the only ruler of post-Soviet Belarus and he is behaving as if treaties, conventions, courts and international responsibilities didn’t exist.

The dialogue between the Soviet Union and the West during the Cold War followed a kind of code of hostility, based on the rational assumption that even enemies can try to build a system to co-exist. The problem is that Lukashenko thinks only about his regime in personal terms. He is not the son of a system or attached to an ideology that would make him feel part of a mission bigger than himself. The Soviet Union possessed a well-structured political system and a protocol for succession. Lukashenko, a veritable populist, who came to power 20 years before the term entered common use in the region, doesn’t have an ideological dictatorship, because he has no ideology. Like other examples of such neo-autocratic rulers, including Vladimir Putin, or even Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Belarus leader is the inventor of a personality-driven regime of corruption and unlimited power that will die with him.

If we analyse what he achieved we need to start with, first of all, intimidation. He wants to show opponents that, ’You are not safe anywhere’. Additionally, Lukashenko worked hard to create an information vacuum in Belarus, consequently, the information channels operating from outside, such as Nexta, posed a direct threat. That was definitely what he cared about in the arrest of Protasevic, namely, to control the informational realm inside the country. The third reason is more speculative: Lukashenko probably wanted to show his teeth. With the intention of knowing how far he can go, how far he can challenge the West.

What also needs to be assessed is the impact of Russia. Putin has been pursuing closer integration between Belarus and Russia for nearly two decades, and he appears to have ramped up efforts in recent years. Lukashenko has long opposed measures that could jeopardize Belarusian sovereignty, but the suppression of demonstrations last fall and the anger of the West at them brought Belarus closer to Russia. Since last year, the two countries have also concluded new agreements on long-term cooperation. Moreover, the Belarusian economy is largely dependent on Russia. By continuing to support Lukashenko economically and politically, the Kremlin actually approves of what is happening in the country. This being considered it is still not entirely clear what is going on behind the scenes and how far Moscow’s hand is. But Moscow clearly supports Belarus. Russia described the anger and condemnations from the European Union as “shocking” and said that news of the arrest was being misused in the West for its political and anti-Russian agenda. Consequently, Minsk is not afraid to take steps that are bound to incense the West because it feels protected by Moscow. In fact, such provocative actions are even an asset that Lukashenko can use in conversation with Russia. The message to Putin is that there will never be a more anti-Western leader of Belarus, so he should cherish this one. The extent to which Moscow is prepared to prop up Lukashenko, including financially, is unclear. The more costly the union becomes, and the more that Russia is accused of involvement in Minsk’s actions, the louder the voices critical of Lukashenko heard within the Russian elite will be heard.

And lastly, we need to account for the implications of the awaited Putin-Biden summit for June 16 in Geneve. There is much speculation that Moscow and Washington will strike some kind of deal on broad de-escalation, involving exchanging concessions on various regions and issues. Ultimately, the more toxic Lukashenko becomes internationally, the more important it becomes for the West to show that its pressure on the Belarusian regime is having tangible consequences. Russia is the only country that can truly influence the behaviour of the Belarusian authorities, so it’s only a matter of time before that pressure is transferred from Minsk to Moscow.

Somalia’s Electoral Crisis

After Somalia’s President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed’s, popularly known as ‘Farmajo’, term expired on February 8^th, Somalia’s leaders were unable to hold elections, resulting in a constitutional crisis. The nation’s planned vote on February 8 was cancelled due to disputes over the mechanism between the federal and regional governments. On April 13, the Lower House of the Parliament voted to prolong Farmajo’s term for another two years in the absence of elections – an issue at the centre of the dispute. While the country’s lower house supported the change, the upper house did not, and an angry opposition – headed by two former presidents – claimed the extension was nothing more than a power grab. This sparked protests, clashes and further unrest in Mogadishu later that month, with international partners condemning the decision to extend the president’s term.

Clashes broke out between forces loyal to the president and opposition-affiliated forces on April 25^th. Rival powers traded gunfire in Mogadishu neighbourhoods, including those where opposition political leaders live. According to local media, the clashes resulted in nearly two dozen deaths and, fearing the worst, up to 200,000 civilians fled the capital. Militiamen targeted army positions near the presidential palace in Mogadishu, the majority of the city’s roads had been blocked, and special forces were mobilised.

By evening, the fighting had died down, and Mogadishu was quieter the following morning, with the majority of residents remaining at home. The situation remained tense, nevertheless, as heavily armed rival security units appeared to be stationed throughout the area, serving as a chilling warning to anyone who passed by that fighting could resume at any time.

Shortly after, and following intense domestic and international pressure, Farmajo decided to drop his intentions to extend his term on the 1^st of May and allowed instead for Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble to begin talks to negotiate a settlement by tasking Roble with overseeing the elections implementation and stability, signalling the start of a path out of the crisis. Opposition members and leaders of the five federal member states will gather around the negotiating table with Farmajo. The aim is to establish confidence between bitter political foes and to hold the long-delayed elections as soon as possible.

However, the situation is still precarious. On the 13th of May, Farmajo turned down a role for the African Union’s special envoy, whose presence is seen as essential by the opposition. Thus, both opposition and government forces are apprehensive, and could remobilise as easily as they disbanded when all parties agreed to talk.

The latest political tensions have only worsened the existing precarious situation faced by Somali people. The negotiated resolution to the impasse, along with strengthened security, will only help humanitarian aid reach and benefit the people who need it. The crisis came on top of a slew of humanitarian disasters, including the war against al-Qaeda linked rebels al-Shabaab, recent heavy flash flooding, and a forecasted drought that could impact more than 6 million people.

Due to political infighting, the delayed elections have allowed al-Shabaab militants to gain ground in an insurgency, increasing the threat of instability in eastern Africa. According to Bloomberg, al-Shabaab has taken advantage of the standoff as well as the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Somalia to increase their recruitment of fighters. Authorities have foiled some attempts, but the government is concerned that raids in Somalia and neighbouring countries will become more common.

Moreover, as the situation has heightened political and military distrust, this is playing into the hands of the militants who have already staged frequent attacks in Mogadishu this year. A report by the International Crisis Group (ICG) stated that the violence within Somalia [leading up to the political crisis] was already worsening, with at least 10 suicide bombings in the capital in the second half of 2020, more than double that of the previous six months. March 2021 also saw the highest number of improvised explosive device (IED) attacks since 2019. According to the ICG, although the Somali army has battled to retake territories from al-Shabab, it has not gained enough ground to prevent a security threat during elections. The increase of attacks, coupled with political uncertainty, has the ability of greatly deteriorating Somalia’s security situation.

The danger is not limited to Somalia. In the past, the group has carried out deadly attacks in countries throughout the East African region, including Kenya and Uganda. Thus, it is due to the security concerns that Kenya’s government is expected to close some of the world’s largest refugee camps along its Somali border, as Kenyan authorities have accused several asylum seekers of harbouring suspects in Kenyan terror attacks, including the 2015 assault on Garissa University.

Furthermore, during this period unrest, the Somali National Army, amid years of reforms and initiatives backed by their donors, fragmented along clan lines, which made the situation even more explosive. Some units defected back to the Hawiye-led opposition, capturing vast swathes of Mogadishu. The danger is that the Somali security sector will be further splintered along clan lines as a result of ongoing clashes – where solidarity is solely based on clan. In the heated political climate, the fighting on April 25th showed how the sector’s cohesion has largely broken down. This distracts the security forces from their primary tasks which are to protect Somali people as well as combating insurgents.

The difficulty comes simultaneously as the number of foreign troops assisting in the fight against the insurgents has decreased. In 2020, Donald Trump ordered the withdrawal of American troops from Somalia – relocating them to Kenya and Djibouti. Ethiopia also pulled out some of its troops from a peacekeeping mission in Somalia in November 2020, focusing instead on resolving an internal dispute.

But the presence of AMISOM, the African Union Mission in Somalia, could fill any security gaps and serve as a buffer between the different factions- however, the opposition has already cast doubt on the mission’s neutrality, saying it has previously backed Farmajo. However, to appease the opposition’s fears, AMISOM, via the AU Special representative to Somalia, should clarify that it will support any AU-led mediation initiatives and will not take sides.

India’s COVID-19 Pandemic Impacting Region

Colombia Tax Reforms Explode in Long Violent Protests

Violent demonstrations continue across Colombia as unions make new requests of President Ivan Duque’s right-wing government after his removal of a planned tax overhaul that caused widespread public outrage.

The government claimed that the tax law was intended to stabilise an economy devastated by the coronavirus pandemic, but the poor and middle classes claim that the proposal favoured the wealthy while putting additional strain on them. Many people were outraged by a slew of new or increased taxes on residents and company owners, as well as the loss or removal of many tax breaks, such as those on product purchases. Protesting and demonstration started on April 28, however, demonstrations are expected to go on.

Protesters’ proposals have grown to include a guaranteed wage, an end to police brutality, and the withdrawal of long-debated health-care reform. The first meeting between Colombian President Ivan Duque and the National Strike Committee ended on Monday without a deal. According to government estimates, violence at some protests has resulted in the deaths of 26 people, including a police officer, and the injuries of over 800 others. Human rights groups, who have repeatedly condemned police abuses during demonstrations, claim that the death rate is higher.

However, public dissatisfaction extends beyond the tax overhaul. In fact, the violent suppression of demonstrations has fuelled it and exacerbated it. President Ivan Duque’s unpopularity and supposed alienation from the general population and their interests, along with the economic decline caused by COVID and sanctions, heightened instability, and disinterest in advancing peace, which keep these protests moving.

Unions are pressing for the abolition of a planned health reform as well as a guaranteed minimum income of one million pesos ($260) for all Colombians, along with city demilitarisation, an end to continued police brutality, and the removal of heavy-handed riot police known as ESMAD.

Colombia faces particular threats from criminal organisations that are behind these violent acts. Citizens are demanding for those protesters who use violence to be prosecuted, but without the use of brutal force. Recent events in Colombia raise concerns about whether the police and its anti-riot police unit, ESMAD are capable of carrying out crowd control operations that uphold fundamental human rights. However, as the demonstrations are likely to continue, doubts arise on whether Duque’s government fully understands the scope of Colombians’ dissatisfaction.

The United Nations, the State Department of the United States, the European Union, Amnesty International, and scores of non-governmental organisations have all denounced the attack, which has thrown the Duque administration into its deepest crisis of nearly three years in office.

Duque offered an olive branch, promising his administration would provide a place to listen to people and construct alternatives. Officials from the government clarified that this entailed holding a series of meetings with diverse segments of society, beginning with political parties, mayors, and provincial governors. In fact, the protests were essentially a resumption of the large anti-government demonstrations that started in late 2019 in Ecuador and Chile and extended to Colombia and other parts of the country. Leftist leaders throughout the Andes, including former Peruvian presidential candidate Verónika Mendoza and current Chilean presidential candidate Daniel Jadue, have expressed solidarity this week with the Colombian demonstrators.

Protesters firebombed a small police station in Bogotá on Tuesday night, when ten officers were inside. The officers were able to flee, but five were wounded. There have also been widespread blockades throughout the region, resulting in fuel and food shortages in some regions, including Cali. Protesters threatened an ambulance transporting a pregnant woman to a hospital in Bogotá after she went into early labour in the town of Tocancipá, north of Bogotá. The mother was forced to give birth in the ambulance, and the infant died.

The government needs to acknowledge and address Colombia’s deep economic inequality, avoiding taxation for the poor and middle class. Young people are feeling exclusion, high levels of poverty, high levels of unemployment and want to be heard and empowered.

The President heard the nation and heard the voice of the social protesters, as the national government acknowledged that their proposal of tax reform was not viable, however there is political agreement that is required as poverty is still a main issue.

To put an end to the crisis, Duque needs to address all of the protesters’ complaints, including the charges of police misconduct, otherwise, the president will prove that he is not listening. The President has offered the chance to listen to citizens voices however, the offer has not pacified protesters, who in multiple cities are expected to continue demonstrating into next week.

Mexico’s Metro Overpass Collapse, could it have been prevented?  

One of the deadliest incidents in Mexico City for decades, a major metro overpass has collapsed after a train had been travelling over it. The crash had occurred at around 22:00 local time on May 3^rd near Olivos station. According to local media, residents had noticed cracks in the structure after a 2017 earthquake. What ended up occurring was a tragic crash with a catastrophic loss of life. As of the 10^th of May, 26 people have lost their lives to the crash leading to the loss of life that we now know of today. The reasons for its crash are not yet officially known, but many have blamed corruption and negligence for its causes.

Mexico City subway system Line 12, often known as the “Golden Line” was inaugurated in October 2012 and was considered an important and ambitious project for the city. Its design was to connect both of Mexico City’s more marginalised as well as prosperous areas and allow for better connections for both residents so they could experience everything the city had to offer.

However, the line had also experienced many troubled years of issues and suspended service due to safety issues. In October 2013 the line was suspended on late nights and weekends at 6 of its stations, due to what was described as maintenance issues, as well as in March 2014, when the whole line had been shut until November 2015 in 11 stations due to structural concerns that were raised. The mayor of Mexico City at the time, Miguel Angel Mancera announced that the line would never have to shut again, but as time had gone on it eventually led to the crash we see today.

Mexican President Obrador has said that “nothing will be hidden” after Mexican authorities have promised a full investigation into the collapse of the metro overpass in Mexico City. It was also announced from Mexico City’s Mayor Claudia Sheunbaum that in addition to an investigation by the local attorney’s office, an independent investigation by Norwegian firm DNV will also be conducted.

Arguments for how such an event occurred have begun to surface, with many blaming a variety of reasons for why such an event occurred. Independent journalist Icela Lagunas blamed a combination of factors, including “corrupt officials, dismissing warnings and a badly executed project with plenty of mistakes since its inception.” She refers to the unstable environment caused by a mass earthquake, the most recent being 2017, and the system not being appropriate for an environment such as this.

Mexican columnist Alejandro Hope described the project as being controversial from when it first began, with it being 70% over its original budget and being “plagued” by allegations of corruption.

Tensions have begun to rise across Mexico demanding answers for what had happened. On the evening of Friday 7^th, mass demonstrations across Mexico City had been since demanding justice for those killed. The groups of demonstrators converged to the crash site and paid their respects to the victims with candles and flowers. Protests began to erupt, and the blame was firmly given to the politicians by those protesting demanding answers to what they believed was an act of corruption.

Despite Mexico’s President claiming that “nothing will be hidden” following the investigation into the crash, it does raise the question of how such an event had occurred despite frequent comments being made by journalists and the public upon the issues with the metro line. Even despite the line closures and damages caused by 2017’s earthquake, little was done to prevent the disaster. Depending on the result of the investigation, tensions are likely to continue to rise in the city in the short term as anger towards the Government rises. While its unlikely to predict what the investigation will conclude, what is clear is the anger and frustration expressed by Mexico City’s population is not going to go away any time soon until those are brought to account.