MS Risk Blog

WHO: Yellow Fever Outbreak in Africa not an International Health Emergency

The World Health Organization reported late last month that the ongoing yellow fever outbreak in Africa is serious but that it does not warrant being declared an international health emergency.

Since it was first identified in Angola in December 2015, yellow fever has spread to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and is believed to have sickened more than 6,300 people and killed about 400, despite millions of doses of vaccine having been sent repeatedly to Angola. In August, some 7.7 million people were vaccinated in a major campaign that was launched in the “high risk” DRC capital Kinshasa, along with 1.5 million in other parts of the country. In Angola, 2.4 million people have been vaccinated, making 11.6 million in all.

The campaigns have depleted the global stockpile of 6 million yellow fever vaccine doses twice this year already, which according to the WHO is unprecedented. The vaccine shortage has now become so acute that officials have begun diluting the vaccine by 80 percent in a bid to stretch the supply. The four major manufacturers who supply the global stockpile have worked around the clock in order to replenish the stockpile.

Last month, the UN health agency convened an emergency committee of experts to consider the outbreak’s status, stating afterwards that the increase of the mosquito-spread haemorrhagic fever appears to have slowed. The WHO further reported that since 12 July there have been no new infections reported in what is an “extremely positive” trend. The upcoming rainy season has raised fears of further spread of the worst outbreak in decades. It also noted that intense population movements across the border to neighbouring Republic of Congo pose a risk of further spread, adding that the Brazzaville government should consider a “pre-emptive vaccination campaign in high-risk areas,” noting that the virus was moving towards Central and Eastern Africa.

US Kills Number of IS ‘Leaders’ In Iraq

A United States military spokesman reported on 29 September that in the last thirty days, air strikes by the United States and it s allies have killed eighteen Islamic State (IS) “leaders,” adding that thirteen of them were killed in Mosul, the militant group’s de facto Iraqi capital.

Colonel John Dorrian, a spokesman for US forces in Iraq and Syria, told a Pentagon briefing that many of those targeted where military commanders, propagandists and those facilitating foreign recruits into territory controlled by Islamic state, which has sympathizers worldwide. Dorrian further disclosed that “by taking these individuals off the battlefield, it creates some really disruptive effects to enemy command and control. He added that there are now between 3,000 and 4,500 IS fighters left in Mosul, noting that while new fighters are not able to enter the city in large convoys, they continue to move in small formations.

Earlier this week, the Pentagon announced that the US would deploy around 600 new troops to Iraq in order to assist Iraqi forces in the battle to retake Mosul from IS militants, who control parts of Iraq and neighbouring Syria.  The US currently has 4,565 troops in Iraq as part of a US-led coalition that is providing extensive air support, training and advise to the Iraqi military, which collapsed in 2014 in the face of Islamic State’s territorial gains and lightning advance towards the capital, Baghdad.

Paris to Open New Refugee Camp Next Month

Paris, France is to open its first refugee camp in October in response to asylum seekers living in the city’s streets.

Mayor Anne Hidalgo has disclosed that a camp to house 400 men would be opened at a site in the north of the city in mid-October while a camp for women and children, in the suburb of Ivry-sur-Seine, will follow by the end of the year. Makeshift camps have appeared in public areas and streets in Paris, before being cleared by police. Hundreds of people dispersed in the city hours before the latest announcement. The two camps will cost an estimated 6.5 million euros (US $7.3 million; £5.4 million) and will provide shelter and medical care for asylum seekers for five to ten days.

Meanwhile investigators have disclosed that a planned centre for 200 asylum seekers in Essonne, which is located 30 km (20 miles) southwest of Paris, was set on fire overnight. The planned centre in Essonne, at Forges-les-Bains, was due to take in ninety people in October. French media have reported that a meeting on 5 September to discuss it was attended by protesters who dispersed late in the evening. The fire was reported to the authorities at about 2:30 local time (00:30 GMT). French police are expected to launch an investigation into the case of the fire.

Calls have also been mounting to close th emigrant camp in Calais, in northern France, near the entrance to the Channel Tunnel. Earlier in the week, protesters causes severe disruption as they blocked roads near the port town, demanding the closure of the “Jungle” camp. Hundreds formed a human chain, joined by farmers and local businesspeople. Calais mayor Natacha Bouchat, who was amongst the protesters, stated that things were “becoming unbearable and something needs to be done.” About 7,000 migrants now live in the “Jungle,” with many attempting to reach Britain in lorries crossing the Channel. In August, the authorities in France and the United Kingdom agreed to increase security and humanitarian aid in Calais and to further secure the Channel Tunnel.

German Chancellor Calls on EU to Sign Agreement with North African States to Curb Migration

Last week, German Chancellor Angela Merkel called on the European Union (EU) and North African countries to do deals modelled on a controversial agreement that was signed with Turkey earlier this year to stem migrant flows to Europe.

Under the EU-Turkey agreement, Ankara agreed to take back one Syrian who made it to Greece in return for being allowed to send one from its massive refuge camps to the bloc in a more orderly redistribution programme. The agreement also pledges billions of euros in EU aid to Turkey, along with visa-free European travel for Turkish citizens and accelerated EU membership talks.

Last week, the German Chancellor told regional daily Neue Passauer Zeitung, “we must agree on similar deals with other countries, such as in North Africa, in order to get better control over the Mediterranean Sea refuge routes.” She further stated, “such agreements are also in the interest of the refugees themselves,” pointing to the huge risks that migrants take in crossing the Mediterranean in rickety vessels, as well as the large sums that they have to pay smugglers for the perilous sea passage.   She added, “it is safer for them and there are good reasons for them to remain in Turkey, close to their homeland, where the cultural and language barriers are lower,” defending the agreement with Turkey as “correct, as before,” and stating, “we should work to ensure that it lasts.” Merkel has also urged EU partners to stop up to their responsibilities in taking in refuges who had arrived in Greece. Prior to the EU-Turkey agreement taking effect, some 45,000 refugees had arrived in Greece as Macedonia closed its borders to the migrants.

There are increasing concerns across the EU that the pact with Turkey to curb migrant flows could collapse as a rift deepens over Ankara’s crackdown following a failed coup. Turkey angrily rejects EU criticism that its post-putsch purges might violate rights norms that Ankara must meet under the agreement in return for visa-free travel for Turks and accelerated negotiations for bloc membership. Hungary has already announced that it will build a second fence along its southern border with Serbia that would effectively enable it to keep out any major new wave of migrants should the EU-Turkey agreement collapse.

Colombian Government and FARC Sign Historic Peace Agreement

Colombia’s centre-right government and the Marxist Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) rebel group signed a peace agreement on 26 September to end a half-quarter war that has killed a quarter of a million people an which once took the country to the brink of collapse.

After four years of peace talks in Cuba, President Juan Manuel Santos and rebel leader Timochekno, the nom de guerre for Rodrigo Londono, warmly shook hands on Colombian soil for the first time and signed the accord. Guests at the ceremony, which took place in the Caribbean coastal city of Cartagena included United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, Cuban President Raul Castro and United States Secretary of State John Kerry. Showing its support for the peace deal, the European Union (EU) on Monday removed the FARC from its list of terrorist groups. Kerry also disclosed that Washington would review whether to take the FARC off its terrorism list, and has pledged US $390 million for Colombia next year to support the peace process. While on Sunday, 2 October, Colombians will vote on whether to ratify the agreement, opinion polls shows that it should pass with ease.

The end of Latin America’s longest-running war will effectively turn the FARC reel group into a political party fighting at the ballot box instead of the battlefield, which they have occupied since 1964. In the worst days of the war, attacks targeted the capital Bogota, which rebels threatened to over run, and battles between the guerrillas, paramilitaries, drug gangs and the army raged in the countryside, parts of which remain sown with landmines. Thousands of civilians were killed in Massacres, particularly in the rural areas of the country, as the warring sides sought to prevent people from collaborating with or supporting enemy forces. The FARC also became a big player in the cocaine trade and at its strongest, it had 20,000 fighters. Now, its some 7,000 fighters must hand over their weapons to the United Nations within 180 days.

Despite widespread relief at the end of the bloodshed and kidnappings of the past fifty-two years, the agreement has caused divisions within the country. Former President Alvaro Uribe and others have voiced anger at the accord, stating that it allows rebels to enter parliament without serving any prison time. In Cartagena on Monday, large billboards urged a “yes” vote in the referendum, while Uribe led hundreds of supporters with umbrellas in the colours of the Colombian flag urging voters to back “no.” Some Colombians are also nervous over how the rebels will integrate back into society.  Most however are optimistic that peace will bring more benefits than problems.

In recent years, Colombia has performed better economically than its neighbours and peace should reduce the government’s security spending an din n turn open new areas of the country for mining and oil companies. Challenges however will remain as criminal gangs may attempt to fill the void in rebel-held areas, while landmines hinder development and rural poverty remains a challenge. Analysts believe that President Santos will likely use his political capital to push for tax reforms and other measures in order to compensate for a drop in oil income caused by a fall in energy prices.