MS Risk Blog

France Warns that IS Militants May Flee Libya Towards Egypt and Tunisia

France warned in early September that so-called Islamic State (IS) group fighters could flee towards Egypt and Tunisia after being flushed from their former Libyan stronghold of Sirte.

Speaking on 5 September during a defense conference in Paris, French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian warned that “we should begin to look seriously at the question of the spread of the terrorists once Sirte…(is) emptied of the terrorists.” He further disclosed that “they don’t disappear. There’s a new risk that appears,” adding, “indirectly this will pose new risks for Tunisia and Egypt.” He also indicated that it was a “shame, perhaps political reasons prevent it, that all the neighbouring states of Libya don’t meet” over the issue.

Le Drian’s Tunisian counterpart, Farhat Horchani, has also called for effective regional coordination. Horchani, who attended the same defense conference in Paris, stated, “we have a large number of foreign fighters who arrived from Sirte, or from Syria. I can see no strategy, no cooperation between the states,” to deal with the problem.”

Forces loyal to Libya’s UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA), which has been backed by weeks of US air strikes, have recaptured nearly all of what had been the jihadists’ main stronghold in the North African country. On 3 September, pro-GNA forces launched a new attack against IS in Sirte, reporting the following day that it could take several days to gain full control of the city.

IS took advantage of the chaos in oil-rich Libya in the wake of the 2011 uprising. They went on to seize Sirte in June 2015, which sparked fears that the jihadists would use it as a springboard for attacks on Europe. While the loss of Sirte would be a reversal for IS, French and US figures indicate that there are between 5,000 and 7,000 jihadists that remain in Libya, with one French security source disclosing that many “have evaporated in th south of he country.”

Suspect in New York City and New Jersey Bombings Arrested

The New York City metropolitan area has long been on high alert for potential terrorist threats. These concerns have further increased over the past several days after terrorist attacks in Manhattan and New Jersey. The situation began on September 17 when an explosion occurred around 9:30am in Seaside Park, New Jersey. The bomb was planted near the route for the Seaside Semper Five run event, an event intended to help U.S. military veterans. The explosion did not cause any injury due to the race start being postponed after a suspicious package was noticed. An extensive search by police discovered two other pipe bomb-like explosives near the race route. Both devices failed to explode, however the race was cancelled due to security concerns. At around 8pm on September 18, 2 homeless men found a suspicious package in a garbage container near Elizabeth train station in Elizabeth, New Jersey. The men contacted local police, who called in the Federal Bureau of Investigation and New Jersey State Police. Police robots opened the package and discovered 2 pipe bombs, 1 of which exploded destroying the closest robot. The second pipe bomb did not explode and the police disabled it later that evening.

The New York City bombing occurred on the evening of September 17 in Manhattan’s Chelsea neighbourhood at around 8:30pm. In that attack, 29 people were injured, with 24 of those requiring hospitalization. Several hours later and only 4 blocks away, a second device was discovered by New York State Police. A New York Police Department robot later moved the device to an NYPD facility where it was detonated in a controlled explosion. No one was injured by the second device in Manhattan.

 On the evening of September 17, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio announced that the Manhattan explosion was intentional. Later reports made it clear that the explosion was being classified as a terrorist attack. Law enforcement investigators later found CCTV footage that showed a bearded man planting both improvised explosive devices in Manhattan’s Chelsea neighbourhood. On September 19, the FBI announced that the man in the footage had been identified as a 28 year-old naturalized U.S. citizen (originally born in Afghanistan) named Ahmad Khan Rahami. The FBI revealed that Rahami was linked with all the devices found in New York City and New Jersey. He had reportedly worked and lived in Elizabeth, New Jersey. Shortly after the announcement, New York City’s Mayor issued a mass emergency alert to cellphone users in New York City and surrounding areas. Rahami was captured in Linden, New Jersey have a multi-agency police operation. During the exchange of gunfire, Rahami was shot in the shoulder and one police offer received a hand injury. Rahami’s exact motivations have not been publically released, but he is now considered the only suspect in the bombings. Rahami was hospitalized and has since been charged with attempted murder and possession of an illegal firearm.

Reflecting the heightened worries about terrorism, New York City has increased its security precautions. 1000 National Guardsmen and New York State Police troopers would be deployed in public areas throughout the city to encourage public confidence. The mass text message alert issued by NYC’s mayor also stands as one of the largest public safety alerts issued through the United States emergency wireless broadcasting system. A great deal of information remains to be publicly released, including whether other people had knowledge of the plot. This includes conflicting reports regarding 5 people arrested by the NYPD on the Belt Parkway in Brooklyn on September 18. None of those individuals have yet be formally charged.

National Oil Corporation suspends operations at Ras Lanuf Port

National Oil Corporation suspends operations at Ras Lanuf Port

19 September- Over the weekend, fighting resumed for control of key ports in Libya’s oil crescent. Libyan officials delayed a shipment of petroleum at the newly reopened ports.

Last week, forces from Libyan National Army, loyal to the Eastern government, captured Ras Lanuf and Es Sider ports from the Petroleum Facilities Guard. The PFG briefly regained control of the ports, but were forced out again amid renewed fighting. After clashes on Sunday, the ports are back in the control of the PFG.

The NOC suspended operations at Ras Lanuf port as a tanker was loading a shipment of oil to be transported to Italy. The tanker would have been the first to ship from the port since 2014, but withdrew to a safe distance from the port.

Ras Lanuf port itself has not been affected by the fighting so far, but a previously damaged oil storage tank at nearby Es Sider port was set on fire. Firefighting teams were expected to control the blaze rapidly.

THE SITUATION IN LIBYA REMAINS EXTREMELY FLUID. Control of key facilities in Libya have, and could again, change hands with little or no notice. The Eastern government, supported by recently promoted Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar and the LNA, does not acknowledge the legitimacy of the UN- backed government. The situation between the opposing factions remains extremely unstable. As a result, ports, infrastructure, and other valuable assets remain at a high risk for violent attack by opposing groups.

MS Risk continues to advise extreme caution to all vessels entering Libyan waters. Ship-owners and masters should correspond with local agents and stay abreast of the most recent information available. 

Cluster Bombs Killed over 400 People in 2015

According to a new report compiled by a Cluster Munitions Coalition, more than 400 people were killed by cluster bombs in 2015, with most of the deaths being reported in Ukraine, Syria and Yemen.

Cluster bombs scatter explosives a wide area and often fail to detonate on impact. The report indicates that 248 deaths were recorded in Syria, followed by Yemen (104); and Ukraine (19). Civilians made u 97% of the death toll while more than a third of the casualties recorded from 2010 – 2015 have been children, who are at a particular risk. The report indicates that the weapon is not banned in all three of these countries, adding that they are not signatories of the Convention on Cluster Munitions, which prohibits the use, stockpiling, production and transfer of the weapons.

The Syrian military has denied possessing or using cluster munitions and in December 2015, the Russian Defense Ministry, which supports the Syrian government, also insisted that “Russian aviation does not use (cluster munitions).” The report however suggests that despite Russia’s denial, “there is compelling evidence that it is using them” in Syria.

Snowden Dismisses US Report into his Activities

Edward Snowden has dismissed a recently released report compiled by the US House of Representatives intelligence committee, which heavily criticised his activities.

The report, which took two years to compile, rejects Mr Snowden’s view of himself as a whistleblower, stating instead that he was a disgruntled employee whose actions did nothing more than help US enemies. Releasing a summary of its 36-page investigation into the case, the House committee disclosed that Mr Snowden had fallen out with his colleagues and lied about his background while at the NSA. It further states that most of the material that he had leaked related to military secrets that had nothing to do with Americans’ privacy but were to “protect American troops overseas and…provide vital defences against terrorists and nation-states.”

In a series of tweets, Mr Snowden dismissed the report’s findings, writing: “their report is so artlessly distorted that it would be amusing if it weren’t such a serious act of bad faith.”

Since 2013, Mr Snowden, a former National Security Agency (NSA) contactor, has been living in Russia. That year, he gained notoriety for releasing thousands of classified documents, which related mass phone and Internet surveillance that has been put in place in the wake of the 9/11 attacks. The report was released just a day after two rights groups launched a campaign for President Obama to pardon Mr Snowden. On 14 September, Amnesty International and the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) launched their ‘Pardon Snowden’ campaign, urging President Obama to do so before he leaves office in January 2017. Amnesty has sated that no-one should be prosecuted for exposing human rights violations, which, it claimed, is what “indiscriminative mass surveillance of communications” amounts to. Meanwhile the ACLU, which acts as Snowden’s legal adviser, has called him “a great American who deserves clemency for his patriotic acts.” The White House has already rejected the possibility of a presidential pardon.